Adonis Diaries

Will the USA attack Iran? Yes or No?

Posted on: October 11, 2008

November 13, 2007

Note: A lot of political turnaround happened since 2007 but the sword is still held high over world stability since the carrot is not offered seriously to Iran.  It could still happen if the crash of Wall Street is stabilized and the inner circle of the next President of the USA does not believe in serious political alternatives.

Will the USA attack Iran?  Yes, the duo Bush Jr-Cheney would have!

            The question is no longer if the USA will attack but when.  Why the USA administration wants to attack Iran?  It is not necessarily because Iran has acquired nuclear facilities thanks to the USA aid that delivered that technology to the Shah of Iran and would have gladly supplied him with nuclear arsenals if he were not deposed.  Pakistan has nuclear capabilities with large virulent Moslem extremists.  India has nuclear capabilities with millions of Moslem extremists (India has the highest number of Moslems of around 200 millions).  Israel has nuclear capabilities with large virulent Jewish extremists. 

The USA has tried every conceivable kinds of arm of mass destruction on live populations just to validate their effectiveness; it is a fact that it dropped two atomic bombs on Japan even after the Emperor of Japan had actually surrendered a week prior to the testing of these bombs.

            Why the current US administration needs to attack Iran militarily? It is not because Iran is a threat to the survival of Israel as the efficient US watchdog in the region: Hezbollah, a local Lebanese resistance movement, was enough to check any further expansionist goals of Israel toward south Lebanon.  The Palestinian Hamas faction in Gaza is already a handful to the persistent Israeli and Western schemes to thwart, destabilize, and neutralize any democratic transfer of power that does not match their perspectives.

The hard fact is that the USA has been waging an uncomfortable low-level war in Iraq for four years and is stuck in this quagmire and not able to retreat without losing face as a superpower capable of re-shaping the World, single-handedly, according to its geo-political strategies.

The Bush administration has been draining the US Treasury of $1,600 billions, so far, and showing nothing in return: the reconstruction of Iraq never started, the Iraqi police force is turning militia; Iraq is even lacking oil, and 120,000 civilians died within 18 months after the fall of Saddam, and the largest US Embassy is a dud, a shell, since the members of the civil service personnel have to live in the Embassy as prisoners for safety and security reasons, and the private security companies are in the limelight for disorderly conduct and brutality and acting lawlessly.

  The Bush administration is consistently losing credibility on all fronts. Its ideology of pre-emptive wars against concentrations of “Moslem terrorists” has generated the reverse effects: the Taliban in Afghanistan is recovering lost grounds, the infusion of billions of dollars by Saudi Arabia to transplant the US military bases on its soil to Iraq or elsewhere, in order to remove excuses of the supporters of Ben Ladens to recruiting heavily among the Wahabi caste of the Saudi Arabia theocratic Monarchy, has failed; the Janjaweed in Sudan’s Darfur are ever more active; Pakistan is experiencing a resurgence of Moslem extremism; and even Lebanon witnessed a war of attrition in a Palestinian camp run by fundamentalist Sunni Fatah Al-Islam extremists.

The proclaimed “crusade” to saw the seeds of democracy in the Greater Middle East has resulted in the strengthening of the dictatorial regimes in Egypt, Tunisia, and Syria; it has empowered the oligarchic theocratic Monarchies in Saudi Arabia, Morocco, and Jordan to act as moderate States and permitted further re-destabilization of Algeria, Lebanon, Somalia, Sudan, Iraq, and Yemen.

            The Bush administration has experienced the disintegration of its coalition in Iraq and the UN is unable to fill the void and replace the lost partners.  The repeated denials by the Bush administration that the war in Iraq was not for control of strategic oil fields is falling on deaf ears; it didn’t even benefit of any material success in controlling the oil fields, their production, or the taming of the oil price dramatic increases.  In fact, China has been investing heavily in oil fields in many parts of Africa and taking advantage of the US disarray for expanding its economic hegemony in the Far East.

            The US citizens gave the Bush administration a low-grade for achievement and the Democratic Congress is tightening the squeeze on the military budget, and the military is experiencing a low-level of recruitment for its war in Iraq.  Consequently, what other alternatives does this administration has in its sleeves to get out of this predicament?

            Basically, there are two drastic options; either Bush decides to withdraw abruptly from Iraq and repeating the Vietnam fiasco or starting a mini Third World War.  How this scenario can unfold?  The US will attack a few installations in Iran hoping to generate a violent reaction from the mullahs; for example destroying a major US naval unit or sending a few missiles at an American base in the Arabian Gulf or Iraq.  Bush will be able to recall Pearl Harbor of an unjustified sneaky attack on the US then, declare war on Iran and whoever supports Iran, re-institute the military draft service, force Congress to open its purse without limit, and start another wave of blackmailing partners to side with the democratic forces against the Evil terrorist forces of Islam. Japan will have no choice but to reconsider its openness policy toward China; disgruntled Europe of its virulent Islamic immigrants will join wholeheartedly; Russia might opt for a neutral stand, and India will side against “terrorism”.  The persistent and inevitable nibbling of China hegemony on the US dominion will be slowed for a while in order for the US to hold on its World domination strategy and exhaust its financial resources. 

The administration of crazy George Bush Junior is capable of every Machiavelli evil.  For one thing, Iran is completely encircled: the USA has installed military bases in almost every Central Asian Republics. This fact points to long-term planning targeting the Islamic Republic of Iran.  Furthermore, the US might be endeavoring to catch in its nets the Ben Laden’s recruits  who are recruiting heavily in the Central Asian Republics.

The scariest part of this scenario is that this Administration has proven not to analyze properly the aftermath of its drastic decisions.  Most probably, there would not be any land incursions because even the sparsely populated Afghanistan has shown stark evidences to the exorbitantly expensive and fruitless land attacks.  Instead, the US war would revert to a systematic destruction of this vast Persian Nation to give a vivid image to the Pakistani President Musharraf what Bush meant by bringing his country to the Middle Ages if he refused to cooperate against the Moslem extremists.

One thing is certain; oil prices will shoot to the roof and most Nations will suffer immeasurably for a long time and famine will devastate the least prepared nations, except the USA for the initial phase of the war.  The end result is that this pre-emptive war policy fill fail again and China will resume its inevitable ascent at the detriment of the emerging superpowers, economically and militarily.

The Western civilizations didn’t yet grasp the fundamental problem of the Moslem societies; it is not so much Islam the major factors in the inability of the Moslem World to unshackle the freedom of its population but the caste structure that has been firmly consolidated by the Central Asian Moslem tribes who dominated the Middle East for ten centuries and expanded to India, Turkey, and even China.  These Central Asian Empires whose tribes converted to the Sunni Islam adopted the code of living but didn’t care about the spiritual content of Islam and decreed that any one who attempts to interpret the Koran will be prosecuted as heretic.

Our closed religious sect system with autonomous Personal Status Laws is the main cause for our population failing to interact internally and communicate freely their opinions.  The proof is that the first three centuries of Islam’s expansion was beneficial to World civilization in all matters of philosophy, medicine, sciences, translations of classical Greek works, and active rational interpretations of the Koran.

What is needed is a long-term patient diplomatic and political pressures by the West to transforming our political systems to alternatives that permit the citizens to feeling encouraged to communicate freely and oppose the system with a fair chance for success within the internationally recognized codes of human rights.

Note one: Why the USA is investing so much time and effort on destabilizing tiny Lebanon?  Most likely, it is because the USA wants Hezbollah to get immersed in a civil war and then the US will contract out Israel to keeping a low-level war in south Lebanon so that Iran becomes completely isolated and unable to rely on any military support to burden the US rear troops and supply lines.  It is within this strategy that the US is putting the squeeze on Syria, its covert ally, to start distancing its policies from Iran.

Note two:  Recently, Bush has allowed the CIA to publish its report saying that Iran has stopped its military nuclear program in 1993.  This comes in conjunction with the lower level of terrorist attacks in Iraq due to Iranian cooperation.  The US is managing the European disinclination to an open war against Iran but is winning on all fronts now: Iraq is more manageable for the time being, the economic pressures on Iran are still applicable and the Iranian regime might feel more lax in expecting an US attack.  However, the war scenario is still on the back burner and might be executed at any moment.

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October 2008

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