Adonis Diaries

Archive for October 23rd, 2008

Proofs of love (2002)

 

How do you want me to prove to you

That I’m in love with you?

 

You are not going to tell me, are you?

 

Admit that you don’t know.

Admit that you have no clue.

Say you need to be surprised

Of the many ways love is shown.

 

You say that you have no comments?

 

Say that you need to be in love.

I’ll make a deal with you.

I’ll stop all the trivial activities of living.

I’ll concentrate on thinking of you.

I’ll share with you my feelings.

 

I’ll share with you what I learned from being in love with you.

We’ll discover together the many ways love can be expressed.

 

Is it a deal?

Say you need to be in love and you need to start this adventure with me.

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Confederation of the World (Written in 2002)

It was a time when leeches and bleeding of blood

Were not administered for every ailment.

Most children were vaccinated according to a protocol,

Whether parents consented or not.

Infants were still allowed to die in their sleep.

Knowing well the infant genes,

His death was predicted within a couple of months,

According to a well established protocol.

Breast cancer was under control

And the loss of bone tissues decelerated considerably.

Women could now outlive their spouses by 20 years,

Simply because men revolted against any prohibition;

Prohibition of eating meat, smoking and consuming large quantity of beer,

Made men to revolt peacefully and abstained from vegetables and fruits.

Instances of men just helping their mates to conceive 

And then die within months were common occurrences.

The patterns of the Queen insects killing or eating their mates

After the job is done was very appealing to the women public consciousness.

The ideology to make men keep in waiting

Till they are diagnosed with terminal illnesses

Before they copulate was widespread.

It was a time when nuclear bombs or mass destructive devices 

Were banned in the world;

All the documentations and knowledge burned and erased 

From computer storages;

Theories of nuclear fission were prohibited by law.

The only equipments for waging war at a distance

Were under the control of an international army;

Equipments such as tanks, ballistic missiles, long range guns,

Torpedoes and airplanes were controlled by the Universal army.

Countries could still go to war against their neighbors,

But killing has to be at short range, preferably man to man.

 

It was a time any person could request an International passport,

Issued by an International Committee after a long due process.

Holders of these special passports had to relinquish

Affiliation to any political party or citizenship of any country.

They were permitted to visit any country for short duration,

And if they decide to work in any specific place,

They could do it for up to 4 years on condition never to return,

Even to take care of business or visit relatives and families.

The issue of how to establish any kind of profitable enterprises

In such a short period was a taboo:

It was inconsequential; it was not the committee’s affairs.

It was assumed that people had to get into the internet or die.

Face to face business and paperwork were regarded

Pre-historic endeavors;

Of third class people and barely classified as working people.

A new name was assigned to these bottom lives:

Bad Breath Creatures or Bugs.

 

It was a time oligarchies were accepted, even encouraged,

As long as the dynasty had accredited genes.

People could still revolt against their leaders,

This inalienable right was to stay, at least on paper,

Because the USA Congress insisted.

The rebels knew such acts would result in a lukewarm intervention

From the Confederation of the World.

Should a powerful neighbor, obviously a more populous ethnic group, attacks

The rules of human rights under the Geneva Convention applied.

The extinction of any human species was nor permitted.

Shrinking species were allocated reserves

And electronic devices implanted on its inhabitant for experimental observation

Of their behavior and their survival techniques.

The leaders of States were to be benevolent and peace loving.

Especially, they should be staunch believers in the new world order.

Any power should be very cooperative with the delegation of the Confederate;

Save those who have earned a veto right;

By definition the creators and sustainers of that world peace assembly.

It was a time when military force was concentrated in the World Confederation.

A genuine ideal for the ‘world unite supporters’.

A genuine ideal for ‘prepare to war to get peace supporters’.

A genuine ideal for ‘cut military spending supporters’.

A genuine ideal for ‘eliminate the mass destruction arsenals supporters’.

Funding to military spending doubled.

The professionals in security, military administration and management

Infiltrated every department and agency of the World Confederation.

And services instituted to eradicate famine, illiteracy, contagious diseases… dwindled in number and effectiveness.

Continental world bodies, like the Arab League, the African Federation,

The South Asian Economic Union, the Latin American Federation

And others were weakened or forced to bankruptcy.

All the noble ideals and all the utopian schemes were tried and proven faulty.

Moral slipped dangerously, innocence lost its meaning and apathy prevailed.

The poor population got poorer and the rich richer.

Terrorism was master and dominated the world.

Note: this is a draft for a short story

 

Our triumph, our zeal toward the neighbors (September 17, 2005)

Have you experienced traffic crawling to a stop? The road is fine, the weather is fair and it is not rush hours though an insignificant accident is the cause for the delay.  Every driver has to slow down, as reaching an imaginary red light, to watch the injured persons and double check that no one is a far off relative or an acquaintance. Have you recently been near a car bombed area or near an explosion?  Your TV channels demonstrate the heavy crowd near the devastated area as if no second explosion could ever been planned or contemplated.  Every one in the neighborhood has to come down and be a witness, be of help somehow or most probably be in the way of the rescue teams.  No other country, proportionately, has as many civil defense members or Red Cross volunteers as Lebanon have and most of these members work pro bono while their hard work barely sufficed for their subsistence. 

There was a time, before 1975, when neighbors used to pay visit to one another frequently, if not daily, at least amongst the wives for morning coffee and shooting the breeze. Not anymore, at least within the average well to do neighborhoods. I am hopeful that in regions untouched by the central government people have kept this beautiful tradition. People have been reverting to isolation within their own residences although not quite changing their extrovert characters when meeting other people.

For 30 years the Lebanese have experienced a lengthy upheaval of the hardest kind; starting with an ugly civil war to an Israeli invasion to a Syrian protectorate that established a system of their same kind that annihilated our polyvalent political system and almost destroyed freedom of speech, freedom of gathering, freedom of independent opinions and free elections.  Thomas Paine once wrote:” The harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph.  What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives everything its value.” For our relative size in population and superficies Lebanon must have experienced the hardest and lengthiest conflict in all history.  We actually have kicked the Israeli and then the Syrian forces of occupation out but we do not seem to feel any glory in triumph.  May be triumph is inappropriately well delimited or not shared? Many non Lebanese, and may be most Lebanese immigrants feel that what the Lebanese have achieved no other people did or could have achieved.  Still, we do not feel any glorious results to our stubbornness and determination, yet.  Sure, when Israel finally decided to withdraw from Lebanon we did not have an autonomous government, and when Syria withdrew we still did not enjoy a stable government because most of the ministers are safely abroad for one reason or another and wishing the Lebanese good luck and well being. Heck, since its independence in 1943 I do not remember Lebanon enjoyed a real government.  So, lack of centralized governance should not be a serious cause for feeling let down. 

May be our economic many problems could be a factor for our mental depression? Economy is indeed heavily on our mind and stomach though I believe that the main cause is that deep down we came to term to an unwelcome fact: we are a tiny country that geopolitics will not leave it alone to enjoy freedom, independence, human rights and a special way of life.

We do realize that our lot is to be chaperoned by others:  France and the USA think so too and decided that their turn has come to guide us and dictate to us our system of living. France and the USA will learn again and again that their endeavors are of no use and hopeless but at our own expense and for some time to come. If we managed to overcome so many tribulations it is because of our zeal toward our neighbors in hard time and our friendly and compassionate nature against all odds. We have to regain our neighborly tradition if we need to overcome the coming problems and we have to regain it quickly. We do not have to let the well to do and the new war rich class to set for us the new rules for a good life; like hiring servants from abroad, enclosing their residences within high walls and shutting themselves off from their neighbors with complicated entrances and formal communication systems.  We have to get back to normal quickly, visit our neighbors, play cards, shout greetings and well wishing from balconies, attend to birthday events and pay our respects to the bereaved living members of the deceased and to reclaim the rights of all Lebanese political prisoners in other countries to be released free with fair indemnity.

Our children got to keep in close touch with relatives and cousins and be encouraged to respect the elderly. Otherwise, our newly developing social fabric, especially our division into de-facto religious cantons at odd with one another with respect to our national entity and political system, will not withstand any more calamities. Hello Lebanon! Get steadfast toward your neighbors and let us have a durable survival structure based on proven, strong and valid sustainable traditional family connections with a much toned town sectarian fanaticisms in our earthly relationships. Hello Lebanon! Let us not forget that freedom is our will to allowing others the liberty to express their freedom of choices and opportunities. 

 

November 22, 2006 

Is the assassination of Pierre Gemayel the signal for the second civil war in Lebanon?

 

Deputy and Minister of Industry Pierre Gemayel was assassinated yesterday point blank and in a bold manner. Samir Geaja warned in November 17 that a few ministers might be targeted for killings in order to reduce the majority of the two third in the government and, hence, a de-facto resignation of the government. When former Karame PM and Suleiman Frangieh were asked about Geaja warning they demanded that Geaja provide his precious intelligence information to the proper authorities.

We are expecting a tense period; already the highway between Antelias and Jounieh was on fire and many attempted skirmishes were halted by the army which deployed instantly. President Lahoud cancelled all the ceremonies and celebrations for Lebanon Independence.  Saad Hariri immediately accused Syria for that killing. 

            It is a gorgeous sunny day and our official Independence Day; usually, it used to be raining around this time and, most often, it was the first major rainy day of the season but this war and climatic changes have precipitated the rain very early on in October.  The coffin of Minister Pierre Gemayel will be taken to Bikfaya in the morning for the local inhabitants to pay their respect to the martyr, then it will be returned to Beirut to the St. George Church for an official Mass, and then Pierre will finally repose in the family cemetery in Bikfaya.

            This assassination is different from the dozen assassinations that took place since former Hariri PM martyrdom.  The difference is not so much in the style, which is indeed pretty bold, but in the demonic plot that Zionism and the US have in reserve for Lebanon.  This is the first assassination after the major failure of Israel in its war against Lebanon and the terrible impasse that the US is facing in Iraqi quagmire. The failure of the Seniora PM government to resign so far is an indirect result to that assassination; actually it is a perfect alibi to blame Syria, and consequently the opposition. The truth is that, with or without a unity government, Israel and the US have very few alternatives to win a breathing time to reanalyze the consequences of the aftermath of the June war, regroup, rearm, and retrain the Israeli army.

We should be expecting many more assassinations, well above the three required to form a new government.  Israel and the US have lost their credibility as being the defenders of democracy, human rights and so on, they have lost the momentum in convincing anyone that they are fighting terrorism or want any form of democracy in the Middle East.  The best scenario for these enemies is to mastermind another civil war in Lebanon, which is the perfect strategy to weaken the Lebanese Resistance, split the army, and pressure Syria into agreeing to the Greater Middle East plan.

            Pierre Gemayel is not going to be the last victim of this plot; many will follow as long as the Lebanese society fails to perceive this Machiavelli plot and, instead of uniting as a people, they might go on a tangent from the main danger coming on a bullet train.

            Another plot for a civil war in Lebanon is harder to carry through than in 1975; but, frankly, Israel and the US have no alternatives but to try and try harder.  Our army is unified, we have no foreign armies of enemies to galvanize the populace around, the Palestinian issue cannot be used effectively to launch a civil war, and our Resistance forces are well organized and trained to stop this recurrence and, mostly, the political level of our people’s awareness is much higher than previously.

            To be blunt, I think there are two sectarian leaders who might profit from a civil war; the Druze Walid Jumblatt and the Maronite Samir Geaja have been drastically reduced in popular power and have nothing left to offer the Lebanese society ideologically, economically or socially.  The only way out of leadership bankruptcy for these two local former warlords is another civil war so that they might capitalize on the ignorance and chauvinistic tendencies of their party members and constituents. Besides, I think that both are the best elements that Israel could rely on from past experience and cooperation in our precious civil war.

            That a civil war is ready to be launched is a certainty in my mind.  The first civil war happened after the 1973 war among Israel, Egypt and Syria, where Israel barely managed to keep hold on the Golan Heights because of the total support of the US power. The initial two years in the civil war between 1975 and 1976 was contained and then rekindled because the devastation and disintegration was not as complete and satisfactory as intended.  Syria was meant to be more immersed and entrenched in the Lebanese quagmire if Israel was to recuperate from its most serious major war, and thus Israel entered Lebanon and its capital Beirut in 1982 to complete the partition and destruction of what was left of Lebanon.  This time around, I guess Syria has learned to stay away militarily out of the Lebanese quagmire and Israel will have an arduous task to keep any civil war going for any duration, even if it succeeded in starting one.

            The other reason why a civil war might not be successful in Lebanon is that the Brezinski-Kessinger strategy to keep the Middle East in a vibrating instability of constant war is waning and at its last breath.  The strategy of these two American energumen was to activate the sectarian hostilities on the two axes; the first is a Sunny axe of Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, and Turkey and the second is the Shiaa axe of Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.  It is no wonder that the US and Israel focused on capturing Iraq which is on the cross road of these two axes.  The dominion of Iraq enabled the enemy to control and manage the constant conflict in this region, especially the crucial Kurdish problem which is the cornerstone for any effectual victory. Here, I need to explain succinctly the prime importance of the establishment of a federated Kurdish State.  The majority of the Kurds are located in the heartland of Turkey, called Anatolia.  Most, if not all, the invasions in history that expanded into the Levant, I mean Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, and Jordan, occurred after the expansionist forces occupied Anatolia.  The Caldan, Assyrian, Farsi, Greek, Roman, Byzantium, the Crusaders, and the Ottomans started their occupation of the Levant after they secured Anatolia; once the heartland of Turkey is taken then the Levant is very easy to conquer. 

Thus, the main obstacle against destabilizing Syria is that the virulent Kurds in Turkey who are staunchly the enemy of the Kamalist ideology in Turkey are still active; Syria and most of the Levant States will be in a much better position if the Arab States manage to establish a Kurdish Federation that is allied to the Arab cause.

Now, Iraq is out of control, Turkey is struggling with the enumerable demands of the EU for access to the union, Iran is more powerful than ever, Hezbollah has checked Israel, Syria is still steadfast with Iran and seeking closer cooperation with Turkey, and the governments in Jordan and Egypt are tottering on the brink of collapse because of their treacherous stands in the June war.  Consequently, Lebanon is the trump card that Israel and the US are playing in order to redirect the conflict among the Islamic and Arab States toward the hapless and least immune State.  It is no wonder why Nasr Allah and General Aoun have no interest whatsoever to antagonize the Syrian regime, simply because Syria is the backbone of the Lebanese resistance against the imperialist onslaught.

A few facts might correlate highly with who is behind the assassination of Pierre Gemayel: first, the US government has put all its news agencies or agencies in close relations with its foreign administration in Lebanon on full alert in anticipation of a major event to happen in Lebanon; second, all the leaders of the pro government were, unusually, in Lebanon as if expecting to have to monitor a serious advent; third, information about the investigations on the Israeli spy ring uncovered before the July war has sunk into oblivion; fourth, the former Minister of the interior, Sabeh, has been resuscitated a couple of days ago and lead a political rally in Tripoli on behalf of Saad Hariri; fifth, the security detachment attached to Ministers was called off just the day of the assassination; sixth, the assassination occurred just when the UN was meeting to discuss the finalization of the draft on the International Court for the assassination of Hariri PM.

The Lebanese people are going to need a heightened level of awareness and expect the worst for some times in order to get out of that execrable period.

What are the consequences of the July 2006 war? (Extracted from my diary, and written on November 24, 2006)

It is a sunny and clear day. I think that it is important to first review the study prepared by Mark Perry and Alistair Crook for the British Forum of Confrontations on the July war between Israel and the Lebanese Resistance of Hezbollah. The study came to the conclusion that Hezbollah won the war and was successful in penetrating the Israeli strategy, its cycle of decision making in the chain of command, intelligence gathering, and military maneuvering.

Though Hassan Nasr Allah, General Secretary of Hezbollah), warned Israel in many public speeches that Hezbollah is about to capture Israeli soldiers in exchange of the release of the Lebanese prisoners, still Israel was taken by complete surprise at the bold attack: mainly Israel supposed that this maneuver will not take place during summer when the Arabs from the Gulf and the Moslem Lebanese Shia emigrants flock to Lebanon for vacation.

The Hezbollah operation was easily carried out. and the later videos demonstrated that fact. The incompetence of the Israeli commander, who failed to follow the military procedures, resulted in two tanks being destroyed in a mine field and many Israeli soldiers died. This unwarranted Israeli military error forced Olmert PM to escalate the confrontation into a full-fledge war, ahead of schedule set for late autumn.

Though the vicious surprised escalation by Israel took Hezbollah by surprise it managed within minutes to mobilize its forces and the rocket officers.  The study estimated that Hezbollah has 600 rocket depots hidden 40 meters deep in mountains south of the Litany River.

The Hezbollah political officers had no knowledge of the locations of the depots for security reasons, even a field commander knew about the location of only three depots within his field of operation.

All the varied Israeli sources of military intelligence failed to accurately locate the rocket sites, as well as locating the leaders of Hezbollah, since not a single one was killed; even Abu Jaafar, the southern military commander of Hezbollah did not die as Israel proclaimed on June 28.

Israel was flabbergasted by the total adherence of the Hezbollah militants by the war truth, 33 days later, a fact that confirmed the effective communication among Hezbollah bases after the methodical Israeli aerial bombardments for over 30 days and nights.

Hezbollah was also very successful in counter thwarting the Israeli espionage operations in Lebanon: it captured 16 spies before the war, many more during the war, and leaked erroneous information to the Israelis about the rocket sites which resulted in civilian casualties and worldwide uproar for the Qana massacre. (The same town that witnessed the massacre of 110 civilians massed in the UN compound in 1996)

Israel lost as many soldiers and officers as Hezbollah did, or about 180. The Hezbollah Nasr brigade in the south, strong of 3,000 fighters, did not need to be replenished neither in fighters or supplies during the whole period of the war.

The cause of continuous wavering of the Israeli military command to start the land invasion was due mainly to the disastrous previous small skirmishes that proved that the Hezbollah fighters were steadfast in holding on to their towns and villages and will not retreat.

When Israel called up the reserves sooner than expected on June 21, the US military strategist surmised that the Israeli army is in great trouble and is no longer doing well as hoped.

On June 21, Ehud Olmert PM urgently demanded from the US ammunition supplies which confirmed that Israel’s air depots have been depleted within the first week of its air strikes, and that Israel is in deep trouble. The environs of the towns of Maroun El Ras and Bent Jbeyl, by the border, did not fall in the hands of Israel for the duration of the war, even after Israel called up an additional 15,000 soldiers and the Golani brigade to dislodge the tenacious fighters.

The Merkava tank was defenseless against the second generation of anti tank missiles used by Hezbollah and which were fabricated in 1973. At the same time, the “Khibar One” rockets which targeted the airbase in Afoula, deep inside Israel, could not be intercepted.

Finally, the US hurriedly worked out a UN truth, at the instigation of Israel on August 10, because the Zionist soldiers, deep in south Lebanon, feared encirclement, total defeat, and surrender.

The consequences of this defeat, as stated by the study, were disastrous to both Israeli image of an undefeated State and the US foreign policies.

First, when US diplomats and politicians tried to be in touch with Jordan, Egypt, or Saudi Arabia after the war they realized that nobody in these pro American States dared respond to their calls;

Second, the US realized that its air superiority in a war against Iran is susceptible to be a failure in order to snatch any quick victory;

Third, the popularity of Hassan Nasr Allah has become overwhelming in all the Arab and Moslem World, a fact that pursuing the accusations of terrorism will ridicule the US administration and sap any remnants of its credibility;

Fourth, the strategy adopted by Hezbollah discredited the complete political affiliation of the Arab regimes with the US policies in order to gain a few irrelevant advantages;

Fifth, the US is already unable to contemplate a coalition of the Arab and Moslem States in anticipation of an invasion of Iran, simply because these States can no longer afford to look as US stooges toward their people;

Sixth, any attempt by Israel to disable the Iranian nuclear plants will instigate a retaliation toward Israel nuclear plants and further weakening of the American presence in the Arab Gulf States as well as the fall of many pro American Arab States in a domino fashion;

Seventh, Israel is going to need, at least 15 years, to rebuild its military and intelligence capabilities in order to regain the image of undefeated army;

Eight, the position of Iran in Iraq has drastically increased and the Shiaa might soon start an offensive against the US and British troops, their previous allies;

Ninth, the position of Syria in Lebanon has strengthened which is a defeat to the French program since it would be impossible from now on to form a government in Lebanon that antagonizes Syria.

The previous consequences of the study are conjectures so far.

Let us review what happened since after the July war.

First, George W. Bush administration was defeated grandly in the House and the Senate. This administration has voiced readiness to consider alternative solutions to the Iraqi quagmire.  This administration will view world politics from a different perspective, except in the Greater Middle East.  It seems that the Bush government is expressing its bitterness in our region. The Bush administration is the cause that the unity governments in Palestine and Lebanon are being postponed weeks after weeks at the detriment of our security and economic development.

Second, Britain has already decided to hand over the civil administration in Basra by the end of the year and has plans to retreat from Iraq altogether; Britain and the European States are vigorously seeking open and direct negotiations with Iran and Syria for a political resolution in Iraq

Third, Pakistan has reached a truth in the provinces bordering Afghanistan and is no longer willing to pursue the US maddening demands to fighting terrorism.

Fourth, Bush is facing serious hurdles meeting with Arab leaders; the Iraqi Prime Minister Maleki is not sincerely willing to meet Bush for the time being after Moktada Sadr threatened to quit the government and the Chamber of deputies if he did because the recent onslaught of the US forces in Sadr City in Bagdad.

Fifth, Saudi Arabia is diversifying its military hardware by purchasing for over $1, 5 billions from Britain and Europe; Vice President Cheney visited Saudi Arabia to pressure it to purchase military hardware from the US.

Sixth, the US is about to transfer its major military bases from Qatar to another Gulf State after Qatar was actively flaunting the US plans in the region and openly voicing its concerns in the UN.

Seven, China has publicly announced that it will continue to aid Pakistan with its nuclear programs; China is implicitly behind the Iranian peaceful nuclear program and that is why the US is feeling impotent in setting up an economic effective embargo or contemplating any military alternative.

Eight, a recent survey by a European agency showed that Israel is considered the worst racist and apartheid State.

Nine, the US and Israel are trying hopelessly to start a civil war in Lebanon by assassinating the Maronite Minister Pierre Gemayel. Jordan King Abdallah is warning of imminent civil wars in Lebanon, Palestine, and Iraq; Bush is coming to Amman to met Iraqi Maliki PM and, most probably, to put the final touches to the execution of the civil war in Lebanon.

Ten, the foreign visitors to Lebanon are flocking to the south to witness the complete destruction of 30 towns and villages; they are carrying back video, pictures and interviews with the southern residents after shedding bitter tears at the view of these cataclysmic scenes; hopefully a renewed awareness in the US and Europe of the main task of this mercenary State of Israel will expand.

Eleven, the parliamentary election in Bahrain, 70% of Shiaa, allowed the Shiaa and leftist movement to win big.

Twelve, Israel Olmert PM has finally agreed to a truth with Hamas in order to put a stop to the “Al Kassam” rockets directed to the kibbutz Sedirot closest to Gaza.

Thirteen, Iranian Prime Minister has promised to help the US in Iraq if the US forces vacate completely this country.

 

December 12, 2006 

Are the Lebanese expatriates wearier of the political standstill than the citizens?

            It is getting obvious from the numerous long distance calls that the Lebanese expatriates are extremely more worried about the situation in Lebanon than we the citizen.  Many would love to stick to their plans to visit their families for the Christmas vacation and most of the average Lebanese expatriates, who are sick and tired of the freezing cold and who lack the drive to compete and work 16 hours a day with no substantial financial results, would like to come back and settle for a job in Lebanon or open a small business while enjoying a familiar environment and social structure.

I guess that the foreign media are adopting the same scare tactics used by the government and its allies about a possible civil war and the disruption of the civil institutions.  We, the average Lebanese citizens, have full confidence in the rational behavior of the opposition and its commendable objectives of getting Lebanon back to self determination and away from the Occidental dictates on the ground that “what is good to Israel is necessarily good to Lebanon”, instead of our long term stability and security.  We, the average Lebanese citizens, have been living at best on the borderline of poverty for decades, accumulating over 40 billion dollars in debt, and still are not seeing the light at the end of this long tunnel.

Maybe it would reassure the expatriates that security, at least for the non-visible political personalities, is better than what they might experience in the foreign metropolises, especially their downtowns.  Anyway, a description of the protagonists and their objectives in this political standstill might shed some understanding of the benefits and advantages of this mass rallying and camping in Downtown Beirut for more than 15 days and nights by now.

            The opposition is constituted of three main groups; the first group is represented by Hezbollah (Hassan Nasr Allah) and Amal (Nabih Berri, the President of the Chamber of Deputy) and are basically of the Shiaa sect and have a strong hold on this sect because it is impossible for the government to find substitutes within that sect to replace the Shiaa Ministers who resigned; it might be conjectured that Hezbollah is heavily financed by Iran and Amal by Syria.  The second group is represented by the “Tayyar” of General Aoun representing about 60% of the Christian Maronites, the Druze of Talal Erslan representing around 30% of the Druze, and the Communist Party with a mixture of all sects; this second group might be conjectured to be financed by Arabic States at odd with Saudi Arabia such as Qatar and the Arab Emirates, though Talal Erslan might be supported by Syria as well.  The third group is represented by the Lebanese branch of the Syrian Social National Party with members from all sects, and the newly formed party headed by Suleiman Frangieh (Christian Maronites concentrated in North Lebanon); this third group might be conjectured to be financed by Syria and Libya.  There are fringe groups like the Workers’ Party, the Nasserites and others.  Although all political parties are financed one way or another by a foreign power or State, many do not necessarily follow strictly the dictates of their financial providers at the expense of the common good of the Lebanese citizens; at least, not all the time and not now.

It is very hard to contemplate a continuation of this alliance once the major issues are focused on secularism and a civil State that seeks to offer opportunities to its citizens regardless of feudal or sectarian affiliations, issues that maybe far in time as priorities. The problem of fair representation through relative percentages nationwide and based on party alliances is a sticky alternative that might require several upheavals once a democratic process is firmly adopted. The main factors that hold them united so firmly are based on the notion of self-determination from the outside Occidental dictates, a government working for the common good, clamping down on frauds and mismanagement of the treasury, having an open and frank dialogue with the Syrian regime, and an honest and democratic government representing all the major factions.

The opposition is backed by the military might of Hezbollah and the Lebanese army and a wide majority of the Lebanese; for example, the bulk of the Shiaas who actually represent 60% of the Lebanese population, 70% of the Christians, about 40% of the Sunni, and 30% of the minority Druze.  The opposition is the guarantee that another round of civil war will be avoided no matter how desperate the government wants to instigate fear in the citizen’s heart on the resurgence of a sectarian feud.

 

 The current government is suspected of treason to the State of Lebanon by encouraging the onslaught of Israel, weakening the Lebanese Resistance militarily and politically before, during, and after the July War and systematic financial frauds during 15 years of governance.  Personally, I think that a government that publicly declared that it had no knowledge or a say in matters of war is already not fit to be called a government and should have resigned immediately after the ceasefire.  I do agree with the definition that this government is constituted of Mafioso with narrow financial interests to its main backers and scared that it will not be able to come back once it resigns.

            The allies to the current government are also constituted of three main groups; the first group is the “Future team” of the Hariri clan, representing a majority of the Sunni sect in Beirut and Tripoli and some of the Christians forming the Kornet Chehwan leaders and the Phalange Party; it is financed mainly by Saudi Arabia.  The second group is the Druze of Walid Jumblatt, representing around 60 % of the minority Druze sect and financed by the Lebanese treasury and lately by Saudi Arabia and the CIA.  The third group is represented by the Lebanese Forces of Samir Geaja, representing about 20% of the Maronites and financed mainly by the Hariri clan, Israel, and the CIA.

            This alliance is united against the Syrian and Iranian influence in Lebanon, and the military and organizational might of Hezbollah.  This alliance has the sole hold on the economic policies and the spending of the National treasury among themselves, the preservation of Solidere and the “Future Team” interests, and the firm influence of Saudi Arabia, France, and the USA in the policies governing the State of Lebanon.  For some reason, Israel Vice President Peres had divulged that he met with a few Lebanese leaders during his tour of Europe.  These Lebanese leaders were extremely unwise, at this critical moment, to providing Israel the ammunitions to further frustrate any consensus among the Lebanese.

            The government alliance is supposedly backed by the interior security forces which has been assembled and reorganized quickly from their own supporters and officers but showing growing apprehension that the government is pushing them to the forefront without the backing of the mainstream soldiers; and the militias of Walid Jumblatt and Samir Geaja, who are being closely monitored and controlled by the Army and Hezbollah, are no match to the well organized army and the Resistance Forces but can cause havoc by their being infiltrated heavily by the Israeli agents.

            Colonel Johnny Abdou, the former Ambassador to France and the Army chief security during the Sarkis presidency, declared from Paris that the current government committed a deadly error by stating that it was behind the resolution 1701 when everyone knows that this resolution could not be adopted without Hezbollah strong support.  Actually, the European contingents would not embark in South Lebanon without guarantees from Hezbollah to its presence. Ambassador Abdou claimed that Saad Hariri created an unforgivable backlash from Syria and Hezbollah by wining big time in North Lebanon at the last election; Hezbollah counted on Hariri’s alliance wining at most 20 deputies but he instead gathered 28 which assured him a majority in the Camber of Deputies.  I think also that the other major error from this government alliance was to circumvent the agreements and alliance with Hezbollah during the last election and forcing a majority in the government and the Chamber of Deputies that could do away with the full participation of Hezbollah.

It is still possible that a resolution that maintains Seniora PM be worked out, but it will be for temporary urgencies such as Paris 3, a few local politics connected to the Constitution and Legality, the heavy pressures from Arabic States to maintaining a status-quo, and most importantly, because the army is not strong and steadfast enough in its unity to sustain long period of pressures without sectarianism to set in among its ranks.  I believe that the next election will wipe away this Mafioso gang and the true majority will emerge to set the tone for a long term political reality.

March 20, 2007

The Sunni Monarchs threatening to rejuvenate the “Hilal Al-Khassib” concept

Prince Talal bin Seoud of Saudi Arabia has suggested recently that the unity of the “Fertile Crescent” States of Syria, the central and northern parts of Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon is ripe to exist as a counter power to Iran’s growing influence in the Gulf and the region.  The Jordanian Monarch has been sending strong signals to the enviable unity of States with Sunni majority, which are the same States mentioned previously.

I have this very plausible interpretation of the strategic plans of the USA.  The US grand plan always seeks, at specific periods, to have one main State in the Middle East to dominate the neighboring smaller States in order to save their interests from total anarchy in the region which could be costly to contain, thus, secure the US economy and businesses.  Egypt was the main power broker during Gamal Abdel Nasser who defended south Yemen from the Saudi Monarchy and succeeded in uniting Syria with Egypt and mounted a coup d’etat in Iraq against the communists of Abdel Karim Kassem. After the defeat of Egypt in 1967 by Israel then, Iran was selected for the role until the Shah was deposed by the Khominists.

Iraq was then the main power for a while until Saddam forgot the rules of the game and became unwanted and a pariah in the regional States.  Iran is taking over the relay temporarily and the USA has no problem with allocating this role to Iran on condition that it refrains from establishing a nuclear arsenal that would give her the image of a regional superpower that would deny it the proper image among the neighboring States to control the Western security and economic profitability.

Turkey is in line at a coming period to play the same role because that is the history of our Middle East since time immemorial.  Egypt would not be allowed to take this role simply because it is bordering Israel but will always play an important secondary role in the background for mediating conditions that might go awry if left unattended.  Saudi Arabia is simply an emergency bank to remedy the local calamities emerging from the small regional infightings because the reduced number of its inhabitants cancels her to be a de facto major power.

Israel cannot play this crucial role but is constantly asked to intervene for surgical operations that the US is not willing to tarnish its image among the regional people and also to be the stick in its policy of taming recalcitrant parties.  It is now dawning on the Saudi Monarchy that this situation is demeaning to its image and constantly disturbing its style of government.  A few Princes in Saudi Arabia are trying to rejuvenate the concept of the “Hilal Al-Khassib” constituted of the current States of Iraq, Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon with Syria playing the dominant State to coordinate the formation of this unity, under the major condition that Saudi Arabia be the sole power broker for this new entity.

The concept of “Greater Syria” has been around for a hundred year as one people living in various States that were created after the superpower wars and given nominal independence.  This natural entity was not allowed to flourish and take roots because of its strategic location and potentials in manpower and natural resources, especially oil. The irony is that they were mainly the Sunni political leaders in Syria, Lebanon, and Jordan who were the staunchest adversary for this kind of unity and worked hard with the British and the US to destroy it.

The Saudi Prince Talal bin Seoud and the Jordanian Monarch Abdallah bin Hussein have declared the necessity of recreating a Sunni Crescent of States to balance a Shiaa Crescent extending from Iran to southern Iraq, bypassing Syria to Southern Lebanon. Although this sectarian advocacy might damage the concept of uniting the Greater Syrian States into Federalism or a union it does not mean that once the process in well established that Saudi Arabia is going to remain the godfather and be successful in passing its programs.

With Iraq tattered and on the verge of collapsing into Federalism at best, and with Turkey still attached to the vision of being part of Europe, it appears that Iran would again get the green light from the USA to be the imperialist watch dog in the Middle East.  This choice would secure two goals in one shot; Iran can stabilize the situations in both Iraq and Afghanistan and even aid in the partition of Iraq which is the ultimate purpose of the invasion of Iraq.


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

October 2008
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