Archive for October 23rd, 2008
Proofs of love
Posted on: October 23, 2008
Proofs of love (2002)
How do you want me to prove to you
That I’m in love with you?
You are not going to tell me, are you?
Admit that you don’t know.
Admit that you have no clue.
Say you need to be surprised
Of the many ways love is shown.
You say that you have no comments?
Say that you need to be in love.
I’ll make a deal with you.
I’ll stop all the trivial activities of living.
I’ll concentrate on thinking of you.
I’ll share with you my feelings.
I’ll share with you what I learned from being in love with you.
We’ll discover together the many ways love can be expressed.
Is it a deal?
Say you need to be in love and you need to start this adventure with me.
Our triumph, our zeal toward the neighbors (September 17, 2005)
Have you experienced traffic crawling to a stop? The road is fine, the weather is fair and it is not rush hours though an insignificant accident is the cause for the delay. Every driver has to slow down, as reaching an imaginary red light, to watch the injured persons and double check that no one is a far off relative or an acquaintance. Have you recently been near a car bombed area or near an explosion? Your TV channels demonstrate the heavy crowd near the devastated area as if no second explosion could ever been planned or contemplated. Every one in the neighborhood has to come down and be a witness, be of help somehow or most probably be in the way of the rescue teams. No other country, proportionately, has as many civil defense members or Red Cross volunteers as Lebanon have and most of these members work pro bono while their hard work barely sufficed for their subsistence.
There was a time, before 1975, when neighbors used to pay visit to one another frequently, if not daily, at least amongst the wives for morning coffee and shooting the breeze. Not anymore, at least within the average well to do neighborhoods. I am hopeful that in regions untouched by the central government people have kept this beautiful tradition. People have been reverting to isolation within their own residences although not quite changing their extrovert characters when meeting other people.
For 30 years the Lebanese have experienced a lengthy upheaval of the hardest kind; starting with an ugly civil war to an Israeli invasion to a Syrian protectorate that established a system of their same kind that annihilated our polyvalent political system and almost destroyed freedom of speech, freedom of gathering, freedom of independent opinions and free elections. Thomas Paine once wrote:” The harder the conflict, the more glorious the triumph. What we obtain too cheap, we esteem too lightly: it is dearness only that gives everything its value.” For our relative size in population and superficies Lebanon must have experienced the hardest and lengthiest conflict in all history. We actually have kicked the Israeli and then the Syrian forces of occupation out but we do not seem to feel any glory in triumph. May be triumph is inappropriately well delimited or not shared? Many non Lebanese, and may be most Lebanese immigrants feel that what the Lebanese have achieved no other people did or could have achieved. Still, we do not feel any glorious results to our stubbornness and determination, yet. Sure, when Israel finally decided to withdraw from Lebanon we did not have an autonomous government, and when Syria withdrew we still did not enjoy a stable government because most of the ministers are safely abroad for one reason or another and wishing the Lebanese good luck and well being. Heck, since its independence in 1943 I do not remember Lebanon enjoyed a real government. So, lack of centralized governance should not be a serious cause for feeling let down.
May be our economic many problems could be a factor for our mental depression? Economy is indeed heavily on our mind and stomach though I believe that the main cause is that deep down we came to term to an unwelcome fact: we are a tiny country that geopolitics will not leave it alone to enjoy freedom, independence, human rights and a special way of life.
We do realize that our lot is to be chaperoned by others: France and the USA think so too and decided that their turn has come to guide us and dictate to us our system of living. France and the USA will learn again and again that their endeavors are of no use and hopeless but at our own expense and for some time to come. If we managed to overcome so many tribulations it is because of our zeal toward our neighbors in hard time and our friendly and compassionate nature against all odds. We have to regain our neighborly tradition if we need to overcome the coming problems and we have to regain it quickly. We do not have to let the well to do and the new war rich class to set for us the new rules for a good life; like hiring servants from abroad, enclosing their residences within high walls and shutting themselves off from their neighbors with complicated entrances and formal communication systems. We have to get back to normal quickly, visit our neighbors, play cards, shout greetings and well wishing from balconies, attend to birthday events and pay our respects to the bereaved living members of the deceased and to reclaim the rights of all Lebanese political prisoners in other countries to be released free with fair indemnity.
Our children got to keep in close touch with relatives and cousins and be encouraged to respect the elderly. Otherwise, our newly developing social fabric, especially our division into de-facto religious cantons at odd with one another with respect to our national entity and political system, will not withstand any more calamities. Hello Lebanon! Get steadfast toward your neighbors and let us have a durable survival structure based on proven, strong and valid sustainable traditional family connections with a much toned town sectarian fanaticisms in our earthly relationships. Hello Lebanon! Let us not forget that freedom is our will to allowing others the liberty to express their freedom of choices and opportunities.
November 22, 2006
Is the assassination of Pierre Gemayel the signal for the second civil war in Lebanon?
Deputy and Minister of Industry Pierre Gemayel was assassinated yesterday point blank and in a bold manner. Samir Geaja warned in November 17 that a few ministers might be targeted for killings in order to reduce the majority of the two third in the government and, hence, a de-facto resignation of the government. When former Karame PM and Suleiman Frangieh were asked about Geaja warning they demanded that Geaja provide his precious intelligence information to the proper authorities.
We are expecting a tense period; already the highway between Antelias and Jounieh was on fire and many attempted skirmishes were halted by the army which deployed instantly. President Lahoud cancelled all the ceremonies and celebrations for Lebanon Independence. Saad Hariri immediately accused Syria for that killing.
It is a gorgeous sunny day and our official Independence Day; usually, it used to be raining around this time and, most often, it was the first major rainy day of the season but this war and climatic changes have precipitated the rain very early on in October. The coffin of Minister Pierre Gemayel will be taken to Bikfaya in the morning for the local inhabitants to pay their respect to the martyr, then it will be returned to Beirut to the St. George Church for an official Mass, and then Pierre will finally repose in the family cemetery in Bikfaya.
This assassination is different from the dozen assassinations that took place since former Hariri PM martyrdom. The difference is not so much in the style, which is indeed pretty bold, but in the demonic plot that Zionism and the US have in reserve for Lebanon. This is the first assassination after the major failure of Israel in its war against Lebanon and the terrible impasse that the US is facing in Iraqi quagmire. The failure of the Seniora PM government to resign so far is an indirect result to that assassination; actually it is a perfect alibi to blame Syria, and consequently the opposition. The truth is that, with or without a unity government, Israel and the US have very few alternatives to win a breathing time to reanalyze the consequences of the aftermath of the June war, regroup, rearm, and retrain the Israeli army.
We should be expecting many more assassinations, well above the three required to form a new government. Israel and the US have lost their credibility as being the defenders of democracy, human rights and so on, they have lost the momentum in convincing anyone that they are fighting terrorism or want any form of democracy in the Middle East. The best scenario for these enemies is to mastermind another civil war in Lebanon, which is the perfect strategy to weaken the Lebanese Resistance, split the army, and pressure Syria into agreeing to the Greater Middle East plan.
Pierre Gemayel is not going to be the last victim of this plot; many will follow as long as the Lebanese society fails to perceive this Machiavelli plot and, instead of uniting as a people, they might go on a tangent from the main danger coming on a bullet train.
Another plot for a civil war in Lebanon is harder to carry through than in 1975; but, frankly, Israel and the US have no alternatives but to try and try harder. Our army is unified, we have no foreign armies of enemies to galvanize the populace around, the Palestinian issue cannot be used effectively to launch a civil war, and our Resistance forces are well organized and trained to stop this recurrence and, mostly, the political level of our people’s awareness is much higher than previously.
To be blunt, I think there are two sectarian leaders who might profit from a civil war; the Druze Walid Jumblatt and the Maronite Samir Geaja have been drastically reduced in popular power and have nothing left to offer the Lebanese society ideologically, economically or socially. The only way out of leadership bankruptcy for these two local former warlords is another civil war so that they might capitalize on the ignorance and chauvinistic tendencies of their party members and constituents. Besides, I think that both are the best elements that Israel could rely on from past experience and cooperation in our precious civil war.
That a civil war is ready to be launched is a certainty in my mind. The first civil war happened after the 1973 war among Israel, Egypt and Syria, where Israel barely managed to keep hold on the Golan Heights because of the total support of the US power. The initial two years in the civil war between 1975 and 1976 was contained and then rekindled because the devastation and disintegration was not as complete and satisfactory as intended. Syria was meant to be more immersed and entrenched in the Lebanese quagmire if Israel was to recuperate from its most serious major war, and thus Israel entered Lebanon and its capital Beirut in 1982 to complete the partition and destruction of what was left of Lebanon. This time around, I guess Syria has learned to stay away militarily out of the Lebanese quagmire and Israel will have an arduous task to keep any civil war going for any duration, even if it succeeded in starting one.
The other reason why a civil war might not be successful in Lebanon is that the Brezinski-Kessinger strategy to keep the Middle East in a vibrating instability of constant war is waning and at its last breath. The strategy of these two American energumen was to activate the sectarian hostilities on the two axes; the first is a Sunny axe of Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, and Turkey and the second is the Shiaa axe of Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. It is no wonder that the US and Israel focused on capturing Iraq which is on the cross road of these two axes. The dominion of Iraq enabled the enemy to control and manage the constant conflict in this region, especially the crucial Kurdish problem which is the cornerstone for any effectual victory. Here, I need to explain succinctly the prime importance of the establishment of a federated Kurdish State. The majority of the Kurds are located in the heartland of Turkey, called Anatolia. Most, if not all, the invasions in history that expanded into the Levant, I mean Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, and Jordan, occurred after the expansionist forces occupied Anatolia. The Caldan, Assyrian, Farsi, Greek, Roman, Byzantium, the Crusaders, and the Ottomans started their occupation of the Levant after they secured Anatolia; once the heartland of Turkey is taken then the Levant is very easy to conquer.
Thus, the main obstacle against destabilizing Syria is that the virulent Kurds in Turkey who are staunchly the enemy of the Kamalist ideology in Turkey are still active; Syria and most of the Levant States will be in a much better position if the Arab States manage to establish a Kurdish Federation that is allied to the Arab cause.
Now, Iraq is out of control, Turkey is struggling with the enumerable demands of the EU for access to the union, Iran is more powerful than ever, Hezbollah has checked Israel, Syria is still steadfast with Iran and seeking closer cooperation with Turkey, and the governments in Jordan and Egypt are tottering on the brink of collapse because of their treacherous stands in the June war. Consequently, Lebanon is the trump card that Israel and the US are playing in order to redirect the conflict among the Islamic and Arab States toward the hapless and least immune State. It is no wonder why Nasr Allah and General Aoun have no interest whatsoever to antagonize the Syrian regime, simply because Syria is the backbone of the Lebanese resistance against the imperialist onslaught.
A few facts might correlate highly with who is behind the assassination of Pierre Gemayel: first, the US government has put all its news agencies or agencies in close relations with its foreign administration in Lebanon on full alert in anticipation of a major event to happen in Lebanon; second, all the leaders of the pro government were, unusually, in Lebanon as if expecting to have to monitor a serious advent; third, information about the investigations on the Israeli spy ring uncovered before the July war has sunk into oblivion; fourth, the former Minister of the interior, Sabeh, has been resuscitated a couple of days ago and lead a political rally in Tripoli on behalf of Saad Hariri; fifth, the security detachment attached to Ministers was called off just the day of the assassination; sixth, the assassination occurred just when the UN was meeting to discuss the finalization of the draft on the International Court for the assassination of Hariri PM.
The Lebanese people are going to need a heightened level of awareness and expect the worst for some times in order to get out of that execrable period.
December 12, 2006
Are the Lebanese expatriates wearier of the political standstill than the citizens?
It is getting obvious from the numerous long distance calls that the Lebanese expatriates are extremely more worried about the situation in Lebanon than we the citizen. Many would love to stick to their plans to visit their families for the Christmas vacation and most of the average Lebanese expatriates, who are sick and tired of the freezing cold and who lack the drive to compete and work 16 hours a day with no substantial financial results, would like to come back and settle for a job in Lebanon or open a small business while enjoying a familiar environment and social structure.
I guess that the foreign media are adopting the same scare tactics used by the government and its allies about a possible civil war and the disruption of the civil institutions. We, the average Lebanese citizens, have full confidence in the rational behavior of the opposition and its commendable objectives of getting Lebanon back to self determination and away from the Occidental dictates on the ground that “what is good to Israel is necessarily good to Lebanon”, instead of our long term stability and security. We, the average Lebanese citizens, have been living at best on the borderline of poverty for decades, accumulating over 40 billion dollars in debt, and still are not seeing the light at the end of this long tunnel.
Maybe it would reassure the expatriates that security, at least for the non-visible political personalities, is better than what they might experience in the foreign metropolises, especially their downtowns. Anyway, a description of the protagonists and their objectives in this political standstill might shed some understanding of the benefits and advantages of this mass rallying and camping in Downtown Beirut for more than 15 days and nights by now.
The opposition is constituted of three main groups; the first group is represented by Hezbollah (Hassan Nasr Allah) and Amal (Nabih Berri, the President of the Chamber of Deputy) and are basically of the Shiaa sect and have a strong hold on this sect because it is impossible for the government to find substitutes within that sect to replace the Shiaa Ministers who resigned; it might be conjectured that Hezbollah is heavily financed by Iran and Amal by Syria. The second group is represented by the “Tayyar” of General Aoun representing about 60% of the Christian Maronites, the Druze of Talal Erslan representing around 30% of the Druze, and the Communist Party with a mixture of all sects; this second group might be conjectured to be financed by Arabic States at odd with Saudi Arabia such as Qatar and the Arab Emirates, though Talal Erslan might be supported by Syria as well. The third group is represented by the Lebanese branch of the Syrian Social National Party with members from all sects, and the newly formed party headed by Suleiman Frangieh (Christian Maronites concentrated in North Lebanon); this third group might be conjectured to be financed by Syria and Libya. There are fringe groups like the Workers’ Party, the Nasserites and others. Although all political parties are financed one way or another by a foreign power or State, many do not necessarily follow strictly the dictates of their financial providers at the expense of the common good of the Lebanese citizens; at least, not all the time and not now.
It is very hard to contemplate a continuation of this alliance once the major issues are focused on secularism and a civil State that seeks to offer opportunities to its citizens regardless of feudal or sectarian affiliations, issues that maybe far in time as priorities. The problem of fair representation through relative percentages nationwide and based on party alliances is a sticky alternative that might require several upheavals once a democratic process is firmly adopted. The main factors that hold them united so firmly are based on the notion of self-determination from the outside Occidental dictates, a government working for the common good, clamping down on frauds and mismanagement of the treasury, having an open and frank dialogue with the Syrian regime, and an honest and democratic government representing all the major factions.
The opposition is backed by the military might of Hezbollah and the Lebanese army and a wide majority of the Lebanese; for example, the bulk of the Shiaas who actually represent 60% of the Lebanese population, 70% of the Christians, about 40% of the Sunni, and 30% of the minority Druze. The opposition is the guarantee that another round of civil war will be avoided no matter how desperate the government wants to instigate fear in the citizen’s heart on the resurgence of a sectarian feud.
The current government is suspected of treason to the State of Lebanon by encouraging the onslaught of Israel, weakening the Lebanese Resistance militarily and politically before, during, and after the July War and systematic financial frauds during 15 years of governance. Personally, I think that a government that publicly declared that it had no knowledge or a say in matters of war is already not fit to be called a government and should have resigned immediately after the ceasefire. I do agree with the definition that this government is constituted of Mafioso with narrow financial interests to its main backers and scared that it will not be able to come back once it resigns.
The allies to the current government are also constituted of three main groups; the first group is the “Future team” of the Hariri clan, representing a majority of the Sunni sect in Beirut and Tripoli and some of the Christians forming the Kornet Chehwan leaders and the Phalange Party; it is financed mainly by Saudi Arabia. The second group is the Druze of Walid Jumblatt, representing around 60 % of the minority Druze sect and financed by the Lebanese treasury and lately by Saudi Arabia and the CIA. The third group is represented by the Lebanese Forces of Samir Geaja, representing about 20% of the Maronites and financed mainly by the Hariri clan, Israel, and the CIA.
This alliance is united against the Syrian and Iranian influence in Lebanon, and the military and organizational might of Hezbollah. This alliance has the sole hold on the economic policies and the spending of the National treasury among themselves, the preservation of Solidere and the “Future Team” interests, and the firm influence of Saudi Arabia, France, and the USA in the policies governing the State of Lebanon. For some reason, Israel Vice President Peres had divulged that he met with a few Lebanese leaders during his tour of Europe. These Lebanese leaders were extremely unwise, at this critical moment, to providing Israel the ammunitions to further frustrate any consensus among the Lebanese.
The government alliance is supposedly backed by the interior security forces which has been assembled and reorganized quickly from their own supporters and officers but showing growing apprehension that the government is pushing them to the forefront without the backing of the mainstream soldiers; and the militias of Walid Jumblatt and Samir Geaja, who are being closely monitored and controlled by the Army and Hezbollah, are no match to the well organized army and the Resistance Forces but can cause havoc by their being infiltrated heavily by the Israeli agents.
Colonel Johnny Abdou, the former Ambassador to France and the Army chief security during the Sarkis presidency, declared from Paris that the current government committed a deadly error by stating that it was behind the resolution 1701 when everyone knows that this resolution could not be adopted without Hezbollah strong support. Actually, the European contingents would not embark in South Lebanon without guarantees from Hezbollah to its presence. Ambassador Abdou claimed that Saad Hariri created an unforgivable backlash from Syria and Hezbollah by wining big time in North Lebanon at the last election; Hezbollah counted on Hariri’s alliance wining at most 20 deputies but he instead gathered 28 which assured him a majority in the Camber of Deputies. I think also that the other major error from this government alliance was to circumvent the agreements and alliance with Hezbollah during the last election and forcing a majority in the government and the Chamber of Deputies that could do away with the full participation of Hezbollah.
It is still possible that a resolution that maintains Seniora PM be worked out, but it will be for temporary urgencies such as Paris 3, a few local politics connected to the Constitution and Legality, the heavy pressures from Arabic States to maintaining a status-quo, and most importantly, because the army is not strong and steadfast enough in its unity to sustain long period of pressures without sectarianism to set in among its ranks. I believe that the next election will wipe away this Mafioso gang and the true majority will emerge to set the tone for a long term political reality.
May 6, 2007
For once Lebanon has the opportunity that can contribute to preventing the destabilization project in the Near-East
Time is of the essence and the Lebanese leaders are sitting tight waiting for the Presidential election in late August and conversing on the correct constitutional guidelines for this process.
The US is actively working a plan for an adequate face saving exit from Iraq before the US Presidential campaign is in full swing in 2008; the humiliating exit debacle from Vietnam is not to recur. Admitting defeat in Iraq among a lesser people, that the US mass media has been lambasted during four decades as barely eligible to survive and much less capable to proceed with a democratic transition, might be a crushing blow to the image of world might the US has been pursuing. Satisfactory compromises among the neighboring border countries of Iraq have to be worked out.
That the US will stop harassing Iran on its nuclear civil program is foreseeable, at least for the duration of complete withdrawal of the troops; but Iran might want more than a short reprieve until forceful pressures resume. Iran wants a central government in Iraq that reflects its direct influence. That any US warning to blast the Iranian nuclear program is not taken seriously is understandable on the ground that Iran is a buffer zone between Russia and the US hegemony; actually, the talks of installing short range missiles and radar warning installations in Poland and Slovakia were for testing the Russian resolve and analyzing its reactions; the results have been negative.
Turkey would not accept a federal Kurdish State on its eastern border and a settlement for the Kirkuk oil revenue where Turkish natives are a minority in this region. Saudi Arabia would have to contain the resentment of the Sunnis in Iraq in return for a renewed and tangible promise from the US to strengthen the monarchic institution and put an end to the demands for further democratization and the media harassment and claims that the Kingdom is the source or hotbed for the terrorist elements. Syria wants a settlement of her occupied territories on the Golan Heights.
The peace negotiation between Syria and Israel is on a fast track and the USA is dangling a lovely carrot on condition that Syria helps in pressuring Lebanon to sign the agreement concomitantly with Israel. The only way for the weak government in Lebanon to sign such a dangerous pact is by outside powers to seriously weaken Hezbollah and any political organization capable of resisting the unwanted pressures. I suggest that a vigorous mediating role between Hezbollah and the Druze chieftain of the Chouf, Deputy Walid Jumblat, takes place immediately because our resistance is strong when the South is linked to Mount Lebanon as allies. It has been a reality in our modern history that when Mount Lebanon is strongly united it usually plays a magnet to the neighboring regions in Syria and Palestine to unite with Mount Lebanon. One pre-requisite is that the fears of the citizens’ in Mount Lebanon, of all sects, of the military might of Hezbollah be convincingly allayed. Hezbollah has to come to term that becoming a part and parcel of our Army without any preconditions is a message that our Army has becomes even more nationalist and confident to face the detractors. Nasr Allah has to agree to stops taking advantages of religious events to deliver his speeches as a political cleric because these occasions result in providing live ammunitions to the spreading of mindless emotions among our isolationist and sectarian forces.
Since our problems in Lebanon are of a long-term nature and their resolutions need sustained peace, growth and a viable constitution then we have to face the imminent Israeli enemy in a united front because the conditions are ripe to act on the division of Lebanon into sectarian cantons. Even before the election of a new President to the Republic we need a face saving form of unity to prevent the UN of voting on highhanded resolutions or further military interventions.
For once Lebanon has the opportunity that can contribute to preventing the destabilization project in the Near-East. If our unity may not prevent a coordinated attack, at least it might delay this imminent project and provide us the time for getting our house in order and resist the attempts to thwart our self-determination decisions. If our spirit is live and determined then Lebanon can withstand the near storms.
May 20, 2007
The International Tribunal for Lebanon
It is becoming urgent to express my opinion on the International Tribunal for Lebanon. Stavros’ caricature in Al Balad of May 20 is about a team of Lebanese officials spreading the red carpet leading to the UN for anticipation on the agreement of the UN council on the International Tribunal for Lebanon under chapter seven. The immediate response in Lebanon was a dangerous outbreak of mayhem in the Palestinian camps of Nahr El-Bared close to Tripoli; so far by 10 a.m. there are over 10 dead and dozens of injured; the army lost seven soldiers and the security forces 3 men and many killed from the Fateh Al-Islam and many civilians. This outbreak has been spreading in the north outside of the camps.
The daily Al Diyar caricature, a few days ago, shows Seniora’s PM returning the key of the UN Tribunal to George W. Bush saying: “My mission is done” and then the daily Al Nahar showing Seniora singing “New York, my way” which I interpreted as seeking a post at the UN in New York after he is out of a public job in Lebanon.
All the political parties in Lebanon, including the opposition, had asked and agreed on an International Tribunal after the assassination of Rafic Hariri. Seniora’s government and allies were interested to file it under chapter seven so that the court would be outside the control of our governments and would have the responsibilities to prosecute, in addition to Rafic Hariri, the other 15 assassinations of our personalities since the martyr of Hariri. Seniora and his allies made sure not to offer the ministers of Hezbollah the opportunity to discuss and modify the articles of the draft resolution to the International Tribunal claiming that the opposition is not serious about this resolution and is intending to delay its ratification. The ministers of the Shiaa sect of Hezbollah and Nabih Berry resigned from the government and Lebanon has been in limbo ever since.
Seniora has taken advantage of this confusing situation of constitutional illegitimacy or illegal decrees to press on with the alternative of filing the International Tribunal under chapter seven on ground that the government in Lebanon is too weak and the political standstill is too divisive to carry on the Tribunal resolutions on its own, which was the main purpose for this long delayed standstill. We have to recall that the Red Khmer slaughtered one third of the Cambodian population but the new government refused to allow more than one foreign judge in the International Tribunal and retained its full rights as an independent Nation; the same is true with Rwanda, an African Nation, with more than a million killed in a racial genocide within three weeks period.
I have written an article in March 31, 2005 with the conjecture that the assassination of Rafic Hariri was the mastermind of the US, France, and Israel that had interest in getting done with Hariri for specific reasons and I provided the rationales and circumstantial evidences. I stated that the USA, France and Israel were the sole culprits in this assassination and 1559 UN resolution that was sponsored by the USA and France was the tip of the iceberg of the package deal between these two powerful States and among the little secret agreement between them was to contract out Israel to eliminate Hariri with utmost prejudice. Israel was overjoyed that the opportunity finally came to erase her enemy number one off her black list. Hariri not only attempted several times to undermine Israel plans in Lebanon and in the region but succeeded hands down in all his political counter offensives against Israel and was still capable of doing Israel great political damage.
Chirac was relieved from an overbearing friend who kept reminding him of what were the right things to do toward Lebanon. Chirac knew better that doing the right things is not necessarily the right political decisions at this crucial time of his political career. Chirac was paying dearly from his prestige and France political positions by opposing the persistent pressures from the European Union and the USA to list Hezbollah as one of the terrorist organizations. Unperturbed, Hariri kept showing at the Elysee door and taking photos with Chirac that said “My dearest friend Chirac” as the Egyptian President Sadat used to say of Kissinger, the USA Secretary of State during Nixon, “My dear friend Henry”.
The USA and France had already agreed on plans for the Greater Middle East after an initial reluctance from Chirac for the Iraqi invasion; time was of the essence for the execution of this project. These plans could not succeed for certain and on time with Hariri still alive and active. France, for now, is winning big: it managed to reaffirm her protectorate rights over Syria and Lebanon like during the colonial times, secured her oil rights in Iraq and removed the American veto to selling military hardware to China.
Israel managed to put the squeeze on Hezbollah and to diligently attempt again to circumvent the rights for the Palestinian refugees to return to their homeland with secret deals with, hopefully, the enfeebled new Lebanese governments after the election. The USA is succeeding in destabilizing Syria and weakening any resolve that Syria might still have to counter the plans in the Greater Middle East.
The timing was masterful in executing resolution 1559 which would have been delayed far beyond the intended schedule if Hariri was alive. Hariri was in constant communications with Hezbollah and its General Secretary Hassan Nasr Allah, he had excellent connections and business enterprises with the Assad clan in Syria, had wide connections with many leaders in many countries and could delay the execution of resolution of 1559 under duress.
It is by now clear that the investigator Bramertz, even after extending his mandate several times, could not find any incriminating evidences on the Syrian leadership that could be presented to an International Court, and the real culprits refused to cooperate as Syria did. The US and France are not interested in finding the real criminals, just need to put the squeeze on the Syrian leadership or any Iranian connections. The US and France will focus on the assassinations of the 15 Lebanese personalities because they might have a better leverage to accusing Syria and harassing this Baathist regime for many years to come. This Syrian regime might be behind many of the bombing in several quarters in Lebanon after the March 14 mass demonstration as a reaction to the betrayal of most of its former allies backing the US and French initiatives in Lebanon but I doubt that the assassinations of Samir Kassir, Jubran Tuweini and George 7awi were the doing of Syria.
These three personalities were credible in their positions, not sectarians in their ideas and programs, not attached or affiliated with any sectarian and isolationist organizations and had their supporters among the youth, the intellectuals and the University students. These personalities were a serious threat to the sectarian and feudal political leaders that gathered under the umbrella of the March 14 movement, also labeled the Cedar movement. They had to be silenced and used as scapegoats for the Syrian disenchantment with the new turning of affairs.
It would be great that the US/Iranian negotiations by the end of this month be fruitful and eliminate this threat of chapter seven, or one major superpower with veto rights turn down the latest draft so that the Lebanese would not have to face another hot, hot summer and the eradication of hope for a stable Lebanon.
It would be great to have a unity government for the sole purpose of having a new Parliamentary election and a decent Presidential transition. We want so much but we are content of the bare minimum for the time being.
Why Fateh Al Islam and why now?
Posted on: October 23, 2008
May 26, 2007
Why Fateh Al Islam and why now?
The secretary General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasr Allah spoke on the occasion of the Resistance and Liberation Day at nine o’clock on May 25, 2007. This is the date of the withdrawal of Israel from south Lebanon in 2000 without any pre-conditions. The Seniora’s government cancelled this holiday last year but he reluctantly re-instated it but he dropped the word “Resistance”.
Nasr Allah reminded the Lebanese and the World of the ethics of Hezbollah which is to delay any operation when civilian casualties are at risk because it would not be appreciated by God or the moral character of this unique Resistance movement. He reminded the Lebanese that during the July War Hezbollah refrained to condemn the government actions and behavior that smacked of treason and had covered up the government patriotic shortcoming after the cease fire because it refused to consider a unity government; all that Hezbollah has been asking is a unity government simply because we are going through a critical situation.
Nasr Allah reminded us what George W. Bush was forced to divulge under popular pressures: Bush strategy in Iraq was to draw Al Qaeda in Iraq so that the US forces would be able to fight these salafist militias in a foreign Arab country instead of letting them focus on targets inside the USA. Nasr Allah drew a parallel with what is happening in the Palestinian camp of Nahr Al Bared in Tripoli and which is to force the Lebanese army to deal with Al Qaeda by supplying it with ammunitions and drawing the Ben Laden supporters into Lebanon too.
Seymour Hersh is saying at a CNN report on Fateh Al Islam that the US, in tandem with Bandar Bin Sultan, the Saudi National Security Chief, have been funding and arming the Fateh Al Islam militias in order to be the Sunny militia arm facing the Chi3a Hezbollah. Hersh is claiming that the US administration has been acting irrationally after the crushing fiasco of the July War in Lebanon and changing its tactics by supporting the Sunny groups in Lebanon and Iraq. This new tactic coincides with the idea that the Saudi and Jordanian monarchs have been promoting; mainly to establish a Sunny crescent from Iraq, Turkey, Syria, Palestine and Lebanon to oppose the growing Chi3a influence in Iran, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
Thus the rumors that Sa3d Hariri was bankrolling the Fateh Al Islam must have foundations. The claim of Samir Gea3ja that Fateh Al Islam was trained in Palestinian camps in Syria and that it is actually Fateh Al Intifada has also foundations. That Syria is willing to cooperate with the US and the Saudi has always been true, especially if negotiation with Israel is in agreement with the new USA tactics. That Syria obliged the US/Saudi request is not strange since Syria has always obliged the US and Saudi pressures.
The puzzle of why Fateh Al Islam attacked the Lebanese army so recklessly and brutally, even slaughtering a few of them, and why now can be interpreted in many ways; either this militia is infiltrated by elements to destroy it, or actually the US wants a hot summer in Lebanon and by this process weakening the Lebanese army as the sole remaining institution representing the whole of the Lebanese, or maybe the US administration has come to its senses and realized that to focus on Iraq and the retreat of its troops require a cool down on all fronts bordering Iraq.
That Fateh Al Islam is infiltrated, as any other organization by several interested States, is more than plausible and among them Syria. I doubt that Syria is going to act independently now that the negotiation process with Israel is more than likely. Could the Iranian realized the danger of the growing financial and military support to Fateh Al Islam and set up a trap to discredit the government who has been emptying the prisons from these elements since the Donnieh skirmishes a couple of years ago? Why not? A fighting member of Fateh Al Islam has expressed his view that a third party was involved in the killing of the Lebanese soldiers and that they had no qualm with the army.
The second alternative purpose was to immerse Lebanon into an open conflict with Al Qaeda as it happened in Iraq and scattering the efforts and energies of the Lebanese army, paving the ground for a civil war. Even if this army has shown cohesion and firm allegiance to the constitution it is by no means a certainty that it could go on for ever in this disturbing climate; once the ball gets rolling and the army is getting more involved in direct and serious confrontations things can get out of hand.
The third alternative is that the US has decided to establish the Lebanese army as the most viable organization to propagate security on the Lebanese territory. Maybe this confrontation with Fateh Al Islam was a test for the readiness and cohesion of the army and the support that is enjoying from the whole population. My opinion is that the US wants a resolution to the Lebanese crisis because it does not want another face off with the European Union that seeks peace and security in the Mediterranean Sea basin. George W. Bush is a wounded lion and had been seeking vengeance and had spitted his venom at Fateh Al Islam. Now, the US administration is about to land on firm reality and listens carefully to its citizens and the growing uneasiness of its soldiers in Iraq since the direct control of the oil reserves in Iraq has proven not to be a viable alternative.
