Adonis Diaries

A signal for the second civil war in Lebanon?

Posted on: October 23, 2008

 

November 22, 2006 

Is the assassination of Pierre Gemayel the signal for the second civil war in Lebanon?

 

Deputy and Minister of Industry Pierre Gemayel was assassinated yesterday point blank and in a bold manner. Samir Geaja warned in November 17 that a few ministers might be targeted for killings in order to reduce the majority of the two third in the government and, hence, a de-facto resignation of the government. When former Karame PM and Suleiman Frangieh were asked about Geaja warning they demanded that Geaja provide his precious intelligence information to the proper authorities.

We are expecting a tense period; already the highway between Antelias and Jounieh was on fire and many attempted skirmishes were halted by the army which deployed instantly. President Lahoud cancelled all the ceremonies and celebrations for Lebanon Independence.  Saad Hariri immediately accused Syria for that killing. 

            It is a gorgeous sunny day and our official Independence Day; usually, it used to be raining around this time and, most often, it was the first major rainy day of the season but this war and climatic changes have precipitated the rain very early on in October.  The coffin of Minister Pierre Gemayel will be taken to Bikfaya in the morning for the local inhabitants to pay their respect to the martyr, then it will be returned to Beirut to the St. George Church for an official Mass, and then Pierre will finally repose in the family cemetery in Bikfaya.

            This assassination is different from the dozen assassinations that took place since former Hariri PM martyrdom.  The difference is not so much in the style, which is indeed pretty bold, but in the demonic plot that Zionism and the US have in reserve for Lebanon.  This is the first assassination after the major failure of Israel in its war against Lebanon and the terrible impasse that the US is facing in Iraqi quagmire. The failure of the Seniora PM government to resign so far is an indirect result to that assassination; actually it is a perfect alibi to blame Syria, and consequently the opposition. The truth is that, with or without a unity government, Israel and the US have very few alternatives to win a breathing time to reanalyze the consequences of the aftermath of the June war, regroup, rearm, and retrain the Israeli army.

We should be expecting many more assassinations, well above the three required to form a new government.  Israel and the US have lost their credibility as being the defenders of democracy, human rights and so on, they have lost the momentum in convincing anyone that they are fighting terrorism or want any form of democracy in the Middle East.  The best scenario for these enemies is to mastermind another civil war in Lebanon, which is the perfect strategy to weaken the Lebanese Resistance, split the army, and pressure Syria into agreeing to the Greater Middle East plan.

            Pierre Gemayel is not going to be the last victim of this plot; many will follow as long as the Lebanese society fails to perceive this Machiavelli plot and, instead of uniting as a people, they might go on a tangent from the main danger coming on a bullet train.

            Another plot for a civil war in Lebanon is harder to carry through than in 1975; but, frankly, Israel and the US have no alternatives but to try and try harder.  Our army is unified, we have no foreign armies of enemies to galvanize the populace around, the Palestinian issue cannot be used effectively to launch a civil war, and our Resistance forces are well organized and trained to stop this recurrence and, mostly, the political level of our people’s awareness is much higher than previously.

            To be blunt, I think there are two sectarian leaders who might profit from a civil war; the Druze Walid Jumblatt and the Maronite Samir Geaja have been drastically reduced in popular power and have nothing left to offer the Lebanese society ideologically, economically or socially.  The only way out of leadership bankruptcy for these two local former warlords is another civil war so that they might capitalize on the ignorance and chauvinistic tendencies of their party members and constituents. Besides, I think that both are the best elements that Israel could rely on from past experience and cooperation in our precious civil war.

            That a civil war is ready to be launched is a certainty in my mind.  The first civil war happened after the 1973 war among Israel, Egypt and Syria, where Israel barely managed to keep hold on the Golan Heights because of the total support of the US power. The initial two years in the civil war between 1975 and 1976 was contained and then rekindled because the devastation and disintegration was not as complete and satisfactory as intended.  Syria was meant to be more immersed and entrenched in the Lebanese quagmire if Israel was to recuperate from its most serious major war, and thus Israel entered Lebanon and its capital Beirut in 1982 to complete the partition and destruction of what was left of Lebanon.  This time around, I guess Syria has learned to stay away militarily out of the Lebanese quagmire and Israel will have an arduous task to keep any civil war going for any duration, even if it succeeded in starting one.

            The other reason why a civil war might not be successful in Lebanon is that the Brezinski-Kessinger strategy to keep the Middle East in a vibrating instability of constant war is waning and at its last breath.  The strategy of these two American energumen was to activate the sectarian hostilities on the two axes; the first is a Sunny axe of Egypt, Jordan, Iraq, and Turkey and the second is the Shiaa axe of Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon.  It is no wonder that the US and Israel focused on capturing Iraq which is on the cross road of these two axes.  The dominion of Iraq enabled the enemy to control and manage the constant conflict in this region, especially the crucial Kurdish problem which is the cornerstone for any effectual victory. Here, I need to explain succinctly the prime importance of the establishment of a federated Kurdish State.  The majority of the Kurds are located in the heartland of Turkey, called Anatolia.  Most, if not all, the invasions in history that expanded into the Levant, I mean Syria, Lebanon, Palestine, and Jordan, occurred after the expansionist forces occupied Anatolia.  The Caldan, Assyrian, Farsi, Greek, Roman, Byzantium, the Crusaders, and the Ottomans started their occupation of the Levant after they secured Anatolia; once the heartland of Turkey is taken then the Levant is very easy to conquer. 

Thus, the main obstacle against destabilizing Syria is that the virulent Kurds in Turkey who are staunchly the enemy of the Kamalist ideology in Turkey are still active; Syria and most of the Levant States will be in a much better position if the Arab States manage to establish a Kurdish Federation that is allied to the Arab cause.

Now, Iraq is out of control, Turkey is struggling with the enumerable demands of the EU for access to the union, Iran is more powerful than ever, Hezbollah has checked Israel, Syria is still steadfast with Iran and seeking closer cooperation with Turkey, and the governments in Jordan and Egypt are tottering on the brink of collapse because of their treacherous stands in the June war.  Consequently, Lebanon is the trump card that Israel and the US are playing in order to redirect the conflict among the Islamic and Arab States toward the hapless and least immune State.  It is no wonder why Nasr Allah and General Aoun have no interest whatsoever to antagonize the Syrian regime, simply because Syria is the backbone of the Lebanese resistance against the imperialist onslaught.

A few facts might correlate highly with who is behind the assassination of Pierre Gemayel: first, the US government has put all its news agencies or agencies in close relations with its foreign administration in Lebanon on full alert in anticipation of a major event to happen in Lebanon; second, all the leaders of the pro government were, unusually, in Lebanon as if expecting to have to monitor a serious advent; third, information about the investigations on the Israeli spy ring uncovered before the July war has sunk into oblivion; fourth, the former Minister of the interior, Sabeh, has been resuscitated a couple of days ago and lead a political rally in Tripoli on behalf of Saad Hariri; fifth, the security detachment attached to Ministers was called off just the day of the assassination; sixth, the assassination occurred just when the UN was meeting to discuss the finalization of the draft on the International Court for the assassination of Hariri PM.

The Lebanese people are going to need a heightened level of awareness and expect the worst for some times in order to get out of that execrable period.

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adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

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