Adonis Diaries

For once Lebanon has an opportunity

Posted on: October 23, 2008


May 6, 2007

For once Lebanon has the opportunity that can contribute to preventing the destabilization project in the Near-East


            Time is of the essence and the Lebanese leaders are sitting tight waiting for the Presidential election in late August and conversing on the correct constitutional guidelines for this process. 

            The US is actively working a plan for an adequate face saving exit from Iraq before the US Presidential campaign is in full swing in 2008; the humiliating exit debacle from Vietnam is not to recur.  Admitting defeat in Iraq among a lesser people, that the US mass media has been lambasted during four decades as barely eligible to survive and much less capable to proceed with a democratic transition, might be a crushing blow to the image of world might the US has been pursuing.  Satisfactory compromises among the neighboring border countries of Iraq have to be worked out. 

            That the US will stop harassing Iran on its nuclear civil program is foreseeable, at least for the duration of complete withdrawal of the troops; but Iran might want more than a short reprieve until forceful pressures resume.  Iran wants a central government in Iraq that reflects its direct influence.  That any US warning to blast the Iranian nuclear program is not taken seriously is understandable on the ground that Iran is a buffer zone between Russia and the US hegemony; actually, the talks of installing short range missiles and radar warning installations in Poland and Slovakia were for testing the Russian resolve and analyzing its reactions; the results have been negative.

            Turkey would not accept a federal Kurdish State on its eastern border and a settlement for the Kirkuk oil revenue where Turkish natives are a minority in this region.  Saudi Arabia would have to contain the resentment of the Sunnis in Iraq in return for a renewed and tangible promise from the US to strengthen the monarchic institution and put an end to the demands for further democratization and the media harassment and claims that the Kingdom is the source or hotbed for the terrorist elements.  Syria wants a settlement of her occupied territories on the Golan Heights.

            The peace negotiation between Syria and Israel is on a fast track and the USA is dangling a lovely carrot on condition that Syria helps in pressuring Lebanon to sign the agreement concomitantly with Israel.  The only way for the weak government in Lebanon to sign such a dangerous pact is by outside powers to seriously weaken Hezbollah and any political organization capable of resisting the unwanted pressures.  I suggest that a vigorous mediating role between Hezbollah and the Druze chieftain of the Chouf, Deputy Walid Jumblat, takes place immediately because our resistance is strong when the South is linked to Mount Lebanon as allies.  It has been a reality in our modern history that when Mount Lebanon is strongly united it usually plays a magnet to the neighboring regions in Syria and Palestine to unite with Mount Lebanon.  One pre-requisite is that the fears of the citizens’ in Mount Lebanon, of all sects, of the military might of Hezbollah be convincingly allayed.  Hezbollah has to come to term that becoming a part and parcel of our Army without any preconditions is a message that our Army has becomes even more nationalist and confident to face the detractors.  Nasr Allah has to agree to stops taking advantages of religious events to deliver his speeches as a political cleric because these occasions result in providing live ammunitions to the spreading of mindless emotions among our isolationist and sectarian forces. 

            Since our problems in Lebanon are of a long-term nature and their resolutions need sustained peace, growth and a viable constitution then we have to face the imminent Israeli enemy in a united front because the conditions are ripe to act on the division of Lebanon into sectarian cantons.  Even before the election of a new President to the Republic we need a face saving form of unity to prevent the UN of voting on highhanded resolutions or further military interventions.

            For once Lebanon has the opportunity that can contribute to preventing the destabilization project in the Near-East.  If our unity may not prevent a coordinated attack, at least it might delay this imminent project and provide us the time for getting our house in order and resist the attempts to thwart our self-determination decisions. If our spirit is live and determined then Lebanon can withstand the near storms.

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October 2008

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