Adonis Diaries

What’s Next after the Nasr Allah’s Speech?

Posted on: October 24, 2008

Note: This category is a repository of political articles written since 2005.  Current articles could be located in Politics/finance Today.

What’s Next after the Nasr Allah’s Speech? (March 7, 2005)

Last week we discussed the aftermath of former Prime Minister Hariri assassination. The opposition gathered and demonstrated for two weeks in the Martyrs’ Square. They were demanding the disclosure of the investigations and chanting slogans

of freedom, self determination and independence of Lebanon from the Syrian tutelage. It happened that the under secretary of the US state department, Satterfield, paid a visit to Lebanon that lasted four days with many meetings with the opposition leaders.

As it is known, the US and France were the mastermind behind the 1559 UN resolution that demand not only the withdrawal of the Syrian troops but also the dismantling of the military wing in the Hezbollah party and the recuperation of the arms in the Palestinian refugee camps.

During that period, the opposition leaders were trying to open a dialogue with Hezbollah with the hopes of neutralizing its political stands by not taking an open position, as Hezbollah usually did, preferring to focus what credibility it has on resisting Israeli violations of Lebanon borders in the South. The opposition did not show a unified front on the 1559 resolution while Satterfield was present.  By the time the opposition resolved on adopting the Taef agreement as the basis for discussion the damage was done.

The speech of Nasr Allah, the secretary general of Hezbollah, was clear: the U N resolution 1559 is meant to destabilize Lebanon in order to pass a US/Israeli plan to ban the return of the Palestinian refugees in Lebanon to Palestine. This plan intend to provide the Lebanese nationality to these refugees through, may be, financial incentives.  It is clear that this plan will divide Lebanon into two or three cantons: a Christian and a Moslem enclave. This partition has become de facto after the civil war even without a political resolution for decentralization.

Syria will withdraw under the international pressures and the backing of a sizable section of the Lebanese citizens.  After the withdrawal of the Syrian troops, Syria may also withdraw politically from Lebanon if an agreement for settling the Golan Heights, a major stumbling block, is reached with Israel and the US. Then, Syria will be off the hooks with the international community but Lebanon will have to deal with the nagging remaining demands of the 1559 resolution.  Dismantling Hezbollah and disarming the Palestinians are two problems that even the whole international community cannot resolve unless a major war is declared by the UN.

If Syria does not withdraw quickly before a Palestinian State is formally recognized by the world community, there is a real danger that the US might use the so called preemptive strikes on Hezbollah bases on the flimsy reason of the Syrian presence in Lebanon.  The odds are high for a military intervention by the US, especially if France gives in to the European Union insistence of calling Hezbollah a terrorist organization. Otherwise, the recurrence of another civil war in Lebanon could still take place because, basically, nothing really changed in the sectarian mentality of the population, even among the new generation who did not experience the civil war, or the establishment of a strong and viable government. All the political reforms envisaged in the articles of the Taef agreement, also called the new Lebanese Constitution, did not take place and Lebanon is back to its starting point of 1975 with the only exception that the Palestinian forces are not the main excuse in meddling in our self determination.  

 

Many social and civil laws that were contemplated to unite the Lebanese under a modern fabric were rescinded by the Parliament and in many instances by the direct involvement of Syria. The current political system is not functioning properly: we have no government to present new laws to the chamber of representatives and it is totally powerless to even execute simple orders to run the state. The economy is practically lifeless except for the printing press to produce Lebanese flags and banners for the multitude of demonstrators.

The deputies for the opposition won’t meet to discuss the election law until the heads of the intelligence and security services resign or are fired.  The President understands that all these political maneuverings are targeting his legitimacy after he extended his term and will not relinquish the power sustained by these security and intelligence services. There got to be viable alternatives to set the political system on its tracks.  Either the President resigns, or the Prime Minister constitutes a majority government to take care of immediate requirements such as passing the election law and scheduling the election process or the President decrees a military government.

Our only hope is that the opposition forces and the Hezbollah party reach a long lasting agreement to put up a unified front against foreign pressures and intervention.  Most of the demands of the opposition forces to removing the heads of the intelligence and security forces, the application of the Constitution for the non renewal of the President term and the disclosure of the assassins of Hariri must be met and the demands of Hezbollah to accept the Taef Agreement as the basis for reforms must be wholeheartedly accepted by all the opposition factions with no wavering of any kinds.

             I suspect that the situation is getting out of hand and time is no longer of the essence as it should be for any modern and reasonable society.  This fact screams the consequent fact:  Lebanon is back to foreign dictate.

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adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

October 2008
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