Normalcy in Randomness
Posted on: October 30, 2008
Normalcy in Randomness (October 30, 2008)
Many mathematicians and scientists earned Nobel Prizes for researching the phenomena of randomness and chaos in the universe and the extremely rare events located on the tails of the Bell Curve shaped graph of the probability for the occurrence of events. A Lebanese/American thinker from Amyoun (Lebanon), Naseem Taleb, had published last year “Black swan theory” that predicted the crash of Wall Street. Since the Middle Age nobody believed that a swan could be but white in color until a black one was discovered in Australia in the 17th century. Professor in Epistemology or the study of knowledge sciences Taleb wrote also “Fooled by randomness” and he participated in the elaboration of “complex financial derivatives”, this evil source of the current financial crisis, when he worked for a Wall Street company a while ago.
Professor Taleb realized a year ago that a crash of large magnitude was to happen on account that the fundamentals of financial analysis of experts are outdated: the experts rely in their analysis on the most probable occurrences and do not examine the alarming cases of rare events that have the possibility of happening. One of the first sign that a major problem might take place is when Bernarki was appointed to head the Federal Reserve Board for the retiring Greenspan. Taleb knew that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest property lenders of over 45% in the Real Estate business were in deep financial difficulty. In fact, the US government by nationalizing these two companies own over 75% of the USA lands.
There are three levels to studying randomness mathematically, in physical sciences and in social psychological behavior. For example, the Japanese society experiences the highest rate of suicide, especially among the students because of the competitive nature in those militaristic disciplined schools. The Japanese society comprehends and admits crazy people in their enterprises: this authoritarian society with strictly controlled morals at work and in families has a high rate of males cracking down and losing it and it is normal to keep them on lower promoted jobs. Women are even encouraged to commit suicide to safeguarding their “honors” but they are cleverer than the stupid males; they leave such honor to the males. Although women are completely controlled in enless set of prescriptions on how to behave they manage not to reach the act of committing suicide because society does not expect much of them for promotion or eccentricity or high “flatulent” feelings and compassion.
In societies that focus on the behaviors of average “normal” people like the USA then “crazy” individuals are fired instantly and then relegated to asylums for a while and then set free on the streets to lead a homeless life.
We know that people with extreme characters attract one another and that people who resemble in characters do not like one another, although they congregate on animal instincts. My idea is to find a function that would reverse the Bell Shaped curve where the tails would converge and the Bell shape would baloon away. The problem is what axis would be most appropriate to represent social psychological behavior.
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