Rare events (draft)

Posted by: adonis49 on: November 1, 2008

• In: Book Review | engineering/research/experiments | Essays | health/medicine | sciences | social articles
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Normalcy in Randomness (October 29, 2008)

 

Many mathematicians and scientists earned Nobel Prizes for researching the phenomena of randomness and chaos in the universe and the extremely rare events located on the tails of the Bell Curve shaped graph for the probability for the occurrence of events.  A Lebanese/American thinker from Amyoun (Lebanon), Naseem Taleb, had published last year “Black swan theory” that predicted the crash of Wall Street. Since the Middle Age nobody believed that a swan could be but white in color until a black one was discovered in Australia in the 17^th century.  Professor in Epistemology or the study of knowledge sciences Taleb wrote also “Fooled by randomness” and he participated in the elaboration of “complex financial derivatives”, this evil source of the current financial crisis, when he worked for a Wall Street company a while ago. 

Professor Taleb realized a year ago that a crash of large magnitude was to happen on account that the fundamentals of financial analysis of experts are outdated: the experts rely in their analysis on the most probable occurrences and do not examine the alarming cases of rare events that have the possibility of happening.  One of the first sign that a major problem might take place is when Bernarki was appointed to head the Federal Reserve Board for the retiring Greenspan. Taleb knew that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest property lenders that cover over 45% in the Real Estate business were in deep financial difficulties.  In fact, the US government by nationalizing these two companies own over 75% of the USA lands.  There are evidences that rich sovereign funds of powerful States have pressured the US government to rescue these two companies and a few others because China had invested 400 billions in USA properties, Japan 300 billions, Russia 200 billions, and South Korea and Taiwan over 40 billions each.  There is no doubt that the extended theocratic Saudi family (over 5,000 members) has invested in the trillions but it acts discreetly in total conformity with the US government policies.

 

The study of randomness can be taken up in mathematics, physical sciences, or socio-psychological attitudes and behavior.  For example, the Japanese society comprehends and admits crazy people in its companies and enterprises: this authoritarian society with strictly controlled morals at work, at schools, and in families has a high rate of males cracking down and losing it.  The women who are encouraged to commit suicide to preserving their “honor” leave that sort of honor to the males; women are more controlled than men but they manage not to reach the act of committing suicide because society does not expect much of them for promotion or eccentricity.

In societies that focus on the behaviors of average “normal” people rather than the “crazy” and eccentric individuals, such as in the USA, it is the norm to fire the “crazies” instantly and then relegate them to asylums for a very short time and then set them free on the streets to lead a homeless life.

 

We know in human behavior that individuals with extreme characters attract toward one another and those who resemble in characters dislike one another although they tend to conglomerate, maybe by animal instinct.  My idea is to reverse the Bell Curve so that the tails would converge and the Bell portions would balloon away.  The difficulty is to selecting the axes of references that might be most appropriate to describe these functions (for example what Y and X axis could be measuring).

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