Adonis Diaries

Two factions, two strategies: Al Qaeda

Posted on: October 1, 2009

Two factions, two strategies: Al Qaeda 

            Before 9/11, 2001 the media tried to convince people that the extremist Wahhabit terrorist organization Al Qaeda of Ussama bin Laden is a “parallel” central movement independent from any State in its decision and activities. Al Qaeda was financed and controlled directly by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan working in tandem to destabilize the Iranian Khomeini regime. During the Afghan soviet occupation the USA had direct interests to driving the Soviet trop into a quagmire of Islamist guerillas attacks of several Islamist factions supported by Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Iran logistically, training, militarily and financially.  Bin Laden is of a Wahhabit sect of the Saudi Monarchy ruling cast.

            Currently, Al Qaeda is split into two drastic factions with allegiance to either Zawahiri or Al Liby strategies for Islam hegemony. Al Qaeda can no longer be described as “a parallel organization” because it is tightly controlled by regional powers and indirectly by the USA through these regional powers.

            The Egyptian Zawahiri, labeled the second in command, had the strategy of an alliance of the Chiaa and Sunni Moslem sects to defeat the western domination of the Middle East and destabilizing the monarchs and dictators in this region.  The Libyan Al Liby is rumored to be heading the second faction that is at war against the Chiaa power in Iran, Iraq, and part of Lebanon. Al Liby has succeeded to Al Zarkawi who was killed in 2006 in Iraq and was responsible for mass suicide attacks of the Iraqi Chiaas during the US occupation. Al Zarkawi was a recless terrorist with no medium term strategy and antagonized his financial sponsors of Saudi Arabia and the USA.  Al Liby is a serious match to Zawahiri’s strategy, though I cannot see but failure in sectarian wars.

            Al Liby strategy is ultimately targeting the Kadhafi regime.  Thus, strong alliance to the Egyptian Moslem Brotherhood movement is a must for post President Mubarak reign. Kadhafi realized that he cannot fight on several fronts: the western interests, the African tribes in the south, and the tribes from the east along the Egyptian borders who have always been at odd with his enduring regime.  Consequently, before Mubarak demise and the rise of the Moslem Brotherhood to power in Egypt Kadhafi had to make peace with the Western European States and the USA: he relinquished his nuclear program, paid the victims of the Lockerby disaster, and reopened bidding to discovering new oil fields.  Kadhafi made it his main strategy to focus on Africa and secure the alliance of the States on his borders as buffers to infiltrations.  As for his eastern front with Egypt Kadhafi met in a big rally with the bedwin tribes and harangued them as the true Arabs and keeping with the best customs and tradition of freedom loving people who enjoy open borders; the son of Kadhafi, Kazaaf El Dam was appointed head of the Libyan trade and cultural center in Cairo to gather intelligence on the Moslem Brotherhood and its interactions with Al Liby head of Al Qaeda competing faction. It is no secret that the ailing Bin Laden is heartily supporting the strategy of Al Liby.

            Zawahiri comprehends that he must coordinate his activity with Iran since Saudi Arabia and Egypt insist on viewing Iran as their main enemy in the region.  Syria has to juggle these two terrorist factions to its own interests relative to the US negotiations for normal diplomatic relations.  Lebanon has to suffer because Chiaa Hezbollah and the Sunni Hariri clan take umbrage with the Qaeda factions in order to maintain their balance of power as the two largest sects in Lebanon.

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October 2009

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