Iraq: What after the withdrawal of US troops?
Posted by: adonis49 on: June 7, 2010
Iraq: What after the withdrawal of US troops?
US troops are supposed to withdraw completely from Iraq in 2011 (it is done, and Iraqis celebrated, and the US soldiers celebrated, and the US soldiers in Afghanistan are preparing to celebrate next year…)
So far, 50,000 soldiers have been transferred to Afghanistan from Iraq via two main routes. The mostly used route is heading south of Iraq by sea and ocean, toward Pakistan and then forward by land to southern Afghanistan. The second route is going north of Iraq toward the Kurdish enclaves, Turkey, Azerbaijan, river routes, and entering Tajikistan to north Afghanistan.
It seems that moving troops and materials from Iraq to Afghanistan is one of the most complex logistic headaches of all time. The US has to have deals with over two dozen States for the transport to reach destination relatively safely: any trouble at any junction and the logistic plans go awry for many months. The logistics troubles have surfaced violently: The safest and quickest route to Afghanistan via Pakistan is no longer that safe, that fast, or as economical: Pakistan society is very unhelpful and unfriendly with the US taking casual liberty with their drones, bombing communities and friendly allies on the ground of mistaken identity…The collateral damage in this war far outnumbers the few tracked and targeted “terrorists”
What of Iraq after the withdrawal of US troops? Iraq will still be a member of the United Nations in the form; Iraq will still be “independent” with a central government in the books, as is the case of the status of Lebanon. In reality, Iraq will be controlled by three regional powers and the US.
A few districts around the Capital Bagdad will be under direct rule of the central government; the districts in the south around Basra and in the Kurdish north-east region will be self autonomous under the indirect supervision of Iran; the districts in the Kurdish northwest will be under Turkish supervision; districts in the west will be mandated to Syria, and a few districts in the Kurdish zone will be reserved to the two main Kurdish parties and supported by the US.
The two parliamentary elections and the time required to forming governments prove that forming union government is directly related to agreement and consensus with Iran, Syria, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the US. The complex political structure in Iraq after the invasion is far worse than Lebanon’s. Lebanon has to negotiate with 18 formal religious sects and two regional powers (Syria and Iran) and the US.
Iraq has more religious sects and many ethnic diversity than Lebanon. Iraq has two main Islamic sects of Sunni and Shia (Chiaa) and dozens of minority Christian sects and Yazd. Iraq has basically four ethnic groups: The Sunni Arabs, the Chiaa Arabs, the Chiaa Persian of origin, and many Kurdish ethnic bordering Turkey, Syria, and Iran.
Iraq has to negotiate with the US, Russia, and China in addition to four regional powers. Thus, forming a union government in Iraq is not an easy endeavor.
Oil revenue will “logically” be shared with districts proportionally to population and the level of pollution generated from extracting oil and refining it (rational guesses). A large portion will be allocated to central government and the federal army. Regional power control will be exercised through two main mechanisms:
First, the high level public servants in the autonomous regions will be appointed by the respective regional powers and
Second, each regional power will have its lead political men in the highest echelons in the government, Parliament, and central public servant administrations.
Weak central governments have distinct characteristics:
First, reforms are incremental after exhaustive consensus procedures;
Second, crucial decisions are taken in consensus, and
Third, foreign policies in the main lines are uncompromising in order not to disturb internal coherence.
There are advantages to this potential future Iraqi status.
First, Iran’s huge interests and dominant influence in Iraq will have the most at stake for the stability of Iraq. Thus, the stability of Iraq will be the best guarantor for cooling off any expansionist policies in the Arab/Persian Gulf such as Bahrain and Oman.
Second, Syria interests in a stable Iraq will strengthen its alliance with Iran with more glitches to iron out. For example, Syria will have to seek greater ties with Turkey in order to counter balance Iran’s overwhelming influence in Iraq. (With current Syria mass revolts and Turkey getting involved against the regime, Syria has no choice but to tighten its links with Iran and Russia…)
Third, Israel’s intelligence agencies in Iraq and the Kurdish regions, which grew astronomically after the invasion in 2003, will be disbanded gradually: The regional powers will supervise tightly Israel’s interferences in Iraq. For example, the visit of Kurdish leader Barazani to Turkey Erdogan has a major purpose to clipping Israel’s intelligence activities in the Kurdish regions. Israel had increased in the last two years its destabilizing schemes in Turkey.
Iraq has been in fact subdivided according to the US objective before invading Iraq in 2003. Iraq has no alternative but to be a central junction of the economic union among Turkey, Iran and Syria. Such a strategic location will witness massive investment in Iraq’s infrastructure for communication, transport, warehouses, ports, and oil pipelines.
Iraq will be the next Dubai with vaster wealth and strategic needs but no tangible independence as a State.
Note: The highest Chiaa religious authority, ayatollah Sistani and residing in Najaf (Iraq), is adamantly opposed to any federal political structure; this is a commendable attitude but the stability of Iraq at this junction is close cooperation with the three powerful border regional powers of Iran, Syria, and Turkey.
Sovereignty is a very loose robe that fits vast countries, large population, and a history of resilience and determination to paying the exorbitant price for the luxury of dignity and being recognized as an intrinsic civilization “under the sun”. You may read one of my other posts on Iraq https://adonis49.wordpress.com/2008/09/25/why-the-invasion-of-iraq-because-of-china/
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