Adonis Diaries

Archive for July 8th, 2010

“Euro B”: For internal trades?

Most population or demographics of the Northern European States such as Germany, Holland, Danmark, Sweden, and Norway are on average much older than the Southern States such as Spain, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, and Greece.  For example, the average age in Germany is 45 and thus, Germany spends less for new housing and can save much more than the younger States. States experiencing high deficits in budget and in GNP need plenty of credit to get its young citizens settled down.

The smaller or emerging States in the EU are suffering from another major handicap.  In the previous decade, these States received plenty of financial funding from the richer States in the EU and thus, most of the young people quit colleges and universities in order to work in a booming economy and to make money and purchase consumerism products that their families never owned or experienced. 

Statistics show that 80% of the newer entrepreneurs in Spain and Portugal have not earned a college degree; they have restricted and limited skills to compete in this global economic environment.  An entire generation was lost to shoulder the next challenges.

The problems of the Euro currency and the economy of European Union (EU) States had begun before the latest financial crash, but this financial upheaval uncovered problems that were swept under carpets for as long as the illusion of global economic development was not that evident.

The European common market is a vast market of 450 million consumers, as large as the combined USA and Russia markets.  If the EU policies focus on internal trades among its States then, most of the difficulties would be far more bearable in this climate of stringent conditions to slowing down deficits in budget and to GNP. 

The EU needs to consider issuing a currency valid for its internal trades that is heavily devalued compared to the current Euro.  This inner currency may be called “Euro B” which will have the consequences of lowering the cost of living compared to reductions in salaries and public reduction in sectors of health, education, family planning, and small business lending facilities.  The other consequence is that tourism will increase and tourists will be able to purchase more consumerism goods as product prices effectively fall. 

Another additional remedy that may keep internal trades developing smoothly is to allowing hard hit States to asking for more liquidity of “Euro B” as internal trades increase and develop.  Obviously, Germany should keep the exclusive monopoly of issuing Euro, both Euro A and Euro B(a monopoly that generates over 5 billion Euros to Germany per year), but the mechanism for evaluating the needs for more liquidity should be more lenient and timely.

For example, the colonies in the US before independence experienced economic expansions while England was having hard times.  Benjamin Franklin, Ambassador to France after the US independence, let out the secret: Economic expansion was related to the colonies enjoying the right to “printing” currency when the economy needed this “oiling” mechanism.

England then convinced the US government, after US independence, to have the monopoly of issuing money instead of the US treasury.  The Rothschild family in England endeavored to ruin the US economic expansion by refraining from issuing badly needed currencies. The dollar received a higher value than being simply an oiling mechanism: thus, the dollar was overvalued and the economy shrank.

The “Euro A”, designed for external trades outside the EU, can still be devalued, but since export balances favor only export economies such as in Germany then, “Euro A” may be considered as a political currency that should not affect significantly internal trades in the European common market. 

The Euro of the European Union (EU) currency or what I call “Euro A” is witnessing healthy devaluation lately compared to the dollar and needs to be lower to around 1.1 to the dollar.  The increasing difficulties experienced by many States in the EU result from initial weaker economies that could not compete efficiently in the European common market and then, were buffeted by the US financial crisis as financial multinationals extended credits not based on tangible sound economic improvement.  

As long as “Euro A” is overvalued and individual States have no sovereignty for issuing currency then, the smaller States will have no options but exercising internal devaluation of 20% represented in lower salaries and harsher budget cuts.

The European and international financial and political medias are breaking the taboo of discussing whether maintaining the Euro is a viable alternative in the short-term. The arguments of the group that staunchly defends the Euro is mostly based on political reasons: To them it is becoming a matter of safeguarding dignity and sovereignty.  It believes that the Euro is the major factor in the reconstruction of the European market and for the political stability and the cohesion of the European market.  This group would like you to believe that without the Euro there would be no EU.

The “taboo breaker” group believes that the EU is in dire difficulty because it prematurely created a common currency before ironing out and strengthening common politics.  Germany and its satellites States in the northern hemisphere benefited most from the Euro since their currencies were highly overvalued “stronger” than the Euro and thus, they managed to compete better and export more to the European common market.  The other States in the Union could not deal with a Euro that was much overvalued compared to their national currencies and thus, had to suffer in market competition.

The financial and economic commotions in Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain are symptoms of the financial and economic imbalance with respect to the vaster and stronger economies in Germany, France, and Italy.  This group believes that the EU is heading toward a deflationary period within a couple of years if no structural institutions are installed.

The main source of imbalance is that the original six States in the Union had firmer and better tested administrative and political institutions that could apply regulations agreed on; they had the capability to supervise and monitor laws and regulations governing the union members.  The weaker States are at great disadvantage: The main powerful States in the union have no confidence in the resilient determination of the weaker States to effectively executing the agreed upon regulations and second,  the weaker States are prohibited to issuing (printing money) to satisfy liquidity in their internal trade and commerce.

It is not the Euro that created the common European market: the EU was already instituted and functioning well before the common currency was created on political grounds.  The Euro was mainly to be the material “symbol” of the Union and this symbol degenerated into a calamity at the first major problem.  The EU could have imagined much less costly symbols for its unification until political coherence was firmly established, tested, and thoroughly evaluated.

The Maastricht treaty set limits to budget deficit below 3% and public deficit below 60%.  Currently, only Spain has kept its public debt at 54% and Germany its budget debt at 3.3%.  The remaining States in the Euro have doubled and even tripled both limits. Joblessness is very bad all over the Euro zone averaging 10%; Spain has 20% and Ireland and Greece about 14%.

It seems to me that the Euro has encourage many mafia type “economies” to expand simply because it became much easier to transfer a unique currency and circumventing further money exchange regulations and constraints.  The “Euro A” will be a good barrier for whitewashing mafia money outside the EU.

The financial institutions and the medias are sending waves of terrors claiming that there is lack of confidence in the Euro; they claim that this confidence is so low that investors are shirking the Euro zone States.  I believe that the Euro should stay but be restricted to the main large economies such as Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Holland, Danmark, and Norway where the same homogeneous spirit for taking seriously the application of financial and economic regulations among the member States.

The other weaker States should have an alternative common currency or “Euro B”, far devalued from the Euro and backed by the “Euro A”, until political coherence and institutions are equalized in efficiency and modernity.  The weaker states should enjoy the privilege of preempting slow internal trade by issuing liquidity in the newer common currency within limits.


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

July 2010
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