Adonis Diaries

Archive for November 2010

The Republican Party made a terrible blunder by not advancing “Con dolcezza”, (a name which means “with softness” that her mother Angelena used as it appeared on piano partitions), to challenging Hillary Clinton in the latest Presidential campaign.  Condoleezza Rice would have been beaten: The Republicans had to be kicked out after two disastrous terms of the Jr. Bush, two wars, and the financial crash of the century.  Nevertheless, Condo would have infused a colorful campaign instead of the decrepit, decaying, boring dinosaur of McCain.

The “No dolcezza” Condo was born in 1954 in Baton Rouge (Louisiana), as her father John Wesley, originally from Birmingham (Alabama), was teaching and preaching at a Presbyterian church.  Condo then moved with her family to Birmingham till the age of ten.  At the time, Birmingham was the most racist city in the US and applying the stringent segregation laws.  Her father was a Presbyterian preacher and inherited the church that his father established in Birmingham.  Her mother was a science and piano teacher.  The Rice and Ray married in their thirties and decided to concentrate all their resources and energy in the only child girl.  The grandmothers of Condo had been house slaves, attached to the mistress of the plantation after the mister got satisfied for a short time.  Their husbands were field slaves with diminished privileges but they managed to get some education: three generations of Rice and Ray went through university studies because only education was the surest way not to returning to the cotton fields.

The Rice family protected Condo from trespassing to the white districts in the city:  The family didn’t need to mingle with the white citizens and could afford everything in their own quarters.  Condo joined a black  school and she was a bright achievers:  She participated in all sorts of contests, especially piano and singing.  Condo learned French with a private teacher. The mother was the organist and Condo the pianist in the choral of the father.  Sundays at 11 am was the time of the mostly segregated hour in the city:  They all joined their respective churches. The father was a football fan and initiated Condo to that sport.

The parents were mentally aware of the terribly discriminating behaviors of the citizens but they built barriers around the house and their emotions; the father owned a car and never had to ride any bus; they traveled westwards, out of Alabama and the southern States, and visited museum, zoos, university campuses.  The parents continued their education and acceded at higher social status and encouraged Condo to keeping her scholarly schedule pretty busy.

At the age of ten, Condo transferred with her family to Denver (Colorado) and joined a private religious school.  Soon after, the mother discovered that she had breast cancer and survived the sickness for another 14 years.  The father had risen in the university administrative positions.  Condo would wake up at 5 am and practice ice skating for 3 hours, go to school, and then practice piano for another 3 hours in the evening.

At the last year in high school, Condo decided to formally finish high school and participate in the diploma ceremony, while taking courses at the Denver university.  She went to the prom at the arm of the most famous university football player.  The year 1974 was a critical stage:  Condo had to decide on her specialty and the university to attend. Condo decided not to integrate the famous music university of Julliard in New York:  She had attended a music instrument competition and realized that many musicians had talents that she lacked. Condo had to be the best in everything she does.

Condo decided in the second semester to major in international politics because she got impressed with her professor Joseph Korbel (father of the infamous Madeleine Albright, Clinton’s State Secretary).  Joseph Korbel was the secretary of Czechoslovakia President before the WWII and then ambassador until Russia annexed Czechoslovakia and ended up teaching in Colorado. Condo opted to specialize in Russia and had to learn the language, the literature, the music and the history of Russia.  She also learned the Check language to satisfy Korbel.

Condo finished her Masters within a year in Notre-Dame (Indiana) and returned to finish her Ph.D in Denver.  She received a grant for a post-doctoral study in Stanford in 1981 and remained there for 20 years.  She became professor, chairman of the humanities and political sciences department, and then provost at Stanford. As provost, she managed to eliminate the university debts within two years but alienated the Afro and Latino activists colleagues in the university.

Condo was chaperoned, prepared and formated by the Republican think tanks:  She spent sabbatical at their main think tank bastions such as the Hoover Institute (Stanford), the Rand Corporation, Carnegie Foundation, JP Morgan and Chase, Chevron (oil multinational).  George Shultz and Brent Scowcroft were her mentors:  She became a member of the Bush family and spent her week-ends in Houston and in Maine.

Bush Sr. introduced Condo to his son Bush Jr. when governor of Texas:  He planned to assigning Condo to give his son private lessons and prepare him for the presidency; she tailor-made her program to conform with Bush’s short-term attention span and frivolity.  Bush Jr. was not excited to becoming President of the USA, but as he was elected against his will, he sent for Condo to support him and further his education at the White House.  By then, Condo had become an expert in missiles and the balance of power between the USA and Russia:  She was appointed in the first term as Bush national security advisor and then Secretary of State in the second term.  Bush Jr. saw Condo first in the morning and the last person before going early to bed.

I would have voted against “No dolcezza” no matter what; I would have campaigned aggressively against this technocrat who was formatted to becoming unethical, immoral, and not exhibiting compassionate behavior.  I vividly recall the way Condo barged in Lebanon, for a swift visit, as Israel has been pounding Lebanon for 30 days, in July 2006.  Israel by now had destroyed all the infrastructures in Lebanon, totally demolished 10 villages to the ground, pulverized a ten-block quarter in Beirut, using freshly US donated implosion bombs.  Israeli aggression killed 1,500 civilians, half of them children and women, injured and handicapped 4,000 civilians, and displaced 800,000 from their homes for 33 days.

Condo moved to shake hands with Lebanon oligarchy leaders, with her peculiar gait, the behind profusely protruding “out”; she assured the oligarchic leaders, who were anxious for the war to resume and getting rid of the Lebanese Resistance that checked the all-out Israeli military machines, that Israel is about, in a few additional days, to resurrect Bush’s public wishes of a newer democratic Greater Middle-East and that liberty will sweep the region with the total and unconditional backing of the USA.

The oligarchic Lebanese leaders were greatly pleased of Condo’s confirmation that Hezbollah is to be on its knees:  the oligarchy leaders were rubbing their hands in joy because soon, the rich Arab oil States will be donating millions for the “reconstruction” of the country and their private bank accounts will swell beyond imagination.  They believed that no political opposition parties would dare challenge their plundering project.

The consequences of the war were contrary to expectations:  Condo realized that she was looking more stupid than Bush and equally as bloody and senile a political figure as Cheney.

I suspected that individual spirituality is different from morality and ethical conducts, which are social consensus practised and emulated by the proper application of laws.  I have been thinking: “Do I have spiritual qualities that guide my behavior?”  The first question I had to resolve is: “What define spirituality and how do we know we have spiritual qualities?”

I am leaning to a subjective definition of feeling that you do lack artistic talents, practices, or appreciation.  Suppose you were not exposed to artistic initiation in the schooling system and your family had no artistic inclinations and didn’t care for art.  Suppose that you had no innate artistic talent or potentials to revolve around artistic environment and stun your family to investing in your discovered capabilities.

Your right brain will continue to capture artistic sensation from your sense organs, but the quality of the data transferred to the left brain for processing will not generate the emotional attributes that artistically inclined people capture.  Thus, you feel that you have no musical ears, no eyes for appreciating paintings, and no valuable senses for anything related to art.  In my case, I cannot understand the lyrics, even in my mother tongue; I was never able to memorize any song.  I am amazed to listen to kids who memorize and sing songs in languages they don’t know; yes, they don’t have to know a language to replicate it in words and tune, even if they are not capable of memorizing anything not recited in musical fashion.

For example, if a theocratic political system prohibits music, pictures, and theater pieces to be exhibited in public places (while not interfering in the privacy of homes) then, if you are not artistically inclined, would you be emotionally disturbed with the public prohibition?  If you don’t feel emotionally affected, not on rational grounds for rights of expression and political system, then you know that you are spiritually deficient. Lacking individual spiritual qualities are no barriers to actively defending and supporting freedom of expression, all kinds of expressions, you reaction is simply delayed for joining mass movements for the establishment of an open society and the diversity of culture and ways of expressing individuality. Your rational disposition might go the extra miles in opposing artistic prohibition, but this attitude has nothing to do with the emotional trauma that afflict the artistic people.

What lacking spiritual quality means?  I know people who can meditate and get out of their body and navigate around the world in their spirit; they tell me they feel attached to the body and this life by a simple thin cord.  I know they are not the lying sort of people.  I tried many times to meditate hoping that I might, at least, once experience the feat of what many people achieved and I failed miserably.   I wonder if I am successful once to getting out of my body that I might have the will to return.  It is not a matter of applying just the proper practice methods or techniques for meditation, it is an atrophy of the artistic hemisphere of the brain that was not trained properly when young and fresh.

History accounts for many eminent scholars in all scientific and rational fields who hated music and didn’t personally care for art, but this deficiency was no barrier to excel in their fields.  For example, Thomas Edison hated music (he was partially deaf at a young age) but most of his practical inventions were related to acoustics, films, and communications. These scholars were not conservative by any long shot and deranged the status-quo cultures of their period.  Yet, it is my feeling that they were of the categorical types of people:  Once they reached a position, it is difficult to make them change or reconsider.

My contention is that it is worthwhile investing in your kids artistic inclination before it is too late: sciences and rational thinking follow nicely. I tried so hard after my thirties to get into art and purchased many musical instruments and tried many of them; all my endeavors turned nil. For example, I catch the rhythms and dance accordingly but the deepest emotions are lacking.In my case, I feel, on the personal level, “what a wasteful life I had”:  rich artistic and emotional life passed me by without my volition.

Whether we admit it or not, every person has constructed a mental model of how he views the universe and life.  For example, was the universe created, is it infinite, is it timeless… and what is life, the purpose of life, what happens after death, is there a soul, what happens to the soul, is the soul individual or a collective soul…?

Since antiquity, philosophers have been discussing and reasoning on the following matter:  “Do mankind enjoys an innate general spirit (regardless of ethnicity, culture, gender…) that expresses how he views the construct of the universe, or it is an individual learning process relevant to the manner the various sensory organs observe nature and people and organize the information”?

The hypothesis is:  Do people with sensory handicaps (blind, deaf…) extend the same kind of subjective understanding of the universe and life as “normal” people do, across all ethic cultures with oral and written myths and traditions?

First, we need baseline stories on “What do I know about the universe and life?” from “normal” people with “normally” functioning sensory organs (vision, audition…).  The baseline stories should be captured from varieties of ethnic cultural entities in the five continents, privileging the oral cultures with no recognized written documents and minority cultures with written cultures but not read or disseminated universally.  The baseline stories must discriminate between genders (between group factors) and the ethnic stories within each gender groups. The baseline stories must discriminate among the stage of maturity of the storyteller (young, adult, middle age, and older people).  The baseline stories must discriminate among the literacy levels of the subjects (such as they read and write in one language, read only, and only orally literate subjects).  Thus, the team of experimenters must be trained to adequately record answers and stories in uniform fashion.

The next phase of the experiment is gathering stories of sensory handicapped people in the above ethnic and gender groups (blind, deaf…)

We may extend this experiment by artificially handicapping a normal subject by preventing him to see or to hear while resuming his “normal” live for a period.  Do you think that his mental model of the universe might be altered significantly?

Another extension may be involving normal sensory subjects but with different mental capabilities and limitations (over developed or under developed brain powers).  This experiment would answer the question: “Are reading and listening to stories generate different types of observational data due to further brain processing mechanisms?”

The most essential preparation for the experiment is the designing of an exhaustive questionnaire with exhaustive options to educating the subjects on the varieties of viewpoints and myths.  For that purpose, the questionnaire will be tested on many preliminary samples of ethnic cultures in order to catch and collect the varieties of relevant options, sort of exhaustive compendium on the different myths and mental models.  I would recommend that the design requires every question to be answered; this means that those logical procedures of demanding the subject to skipping several questions, as in filling tax formes, be eliminated:  We should not fall in the bias of enforcing our rational logic on oral culture ethnic groups and the illiterates.

It is advisable that follow-up oral stories accompany answering the questionnaire; then, another follow-up written story be attached to the oral story.  The written story would condense the individual story into a comprehensive and coherent story after the preceding two educational sessions.  The teams of trained experimenters would have to fill the initial questionnaire with the new information generated by the oral and written stories; missing information can be filled by default, using the original questionnaire for each subject.  Thus, data analysis can be conducted on the two questionnaires: the before learning process and the after learning process of the mental models.

I find it interesting that, after the written story, the subject would give his opinion on the current theories of astrophysicists on the universe in order to checking the cohesion and compatibility of the subjects in their perception of the universe.  For example: what they think of the theory that this universe is the product of a collision between two universes; that a universe revolves around each black hole; that what we see is a simulated universe of a matrix universe; that the sky is a wall on which the image of the stars and galaxies are projected onto it (a universe as hologram); that the universe keeps changing every time we observe it…  Do you think that you might change your view if a theory (coming from an astrophysicist) impresses you?

The spontaneous suggestion is “why not ask a subject to telling his story before answering a questionnaire? At least we can have an original version, unbiased by constructed questionnaires.”  This suggestion is pertinent if it is feasible to nudge a subject to start telling a story without a prompt sheet containing the necessary lines of thoughts to guiding the subject in the endeavor; the prompt sheet must be devoid of any biased suggestions.  In any case, I believe that devising such a prompt sheet is necessary, even if not applied in the experiment, in order to get the questionnaire developed and cleaned of idiosyncratic allusions and local imageries.

The experiment is complex and will need to be subdivided in meaningful stages of shorter experiments; it is time intensive and for a long duration; it requires training of large teams of researchers and experimenters.  Preliminary experiments would show the best ways of experimenting piece meal this vast project.

Note 1:  I tend to include materials we read and stories we heard as sensory inputs since they are processed by the brain, at various levels, as sensory observations.

Note 2: Many scholars present the view that what we actually sense are in fact “processed observations”, and not the raw sensed data, since all sensing observations are data processed by the brain at different levels of manipulations. Good enough: We are dealing with what mankind is observing; that is what is available to forming a coherent structure of the universe and the environment we live into.  The follow-up lesson is:  Other reasoning species must be viewing the universe differently since their senses have different capacities and limitations and their brain structures are different from mankind.

Note 3:  The essential question that the previous experiment might offer an answer to is:  “If an individual is handicapped in one or more sensory organs then, by reading or listening stories, can his brain re-establish what normal people comprehend of the universe?”

Greedy Financial Managers say: “Blame it on greedy human nature”

The verdict of the greedy financial managers and analysts in this international financial crisis is: ” the culprit is a non-entity: It is human risk-taking nature, driven by greed for the enjoyment of the present moment.”

The convenient scapegoat is this mythical concept of human risk-taking attitudes.

Almost all financial managers would like to blame the greedy short-timer shareholders for the successive financial crisis. They say: “The young financial operators have never witnessed but bull market trends and they had no memory of financial crisis.  The young financial operators grabbed the risk-taking attitudes of clients and ran with it.”

1. The financial managers say: “Give a child a piece of candy and promise him another candy if he waits ten minutes until you come back:  Very few children will not eat the candy immediately, instead of two shortly later.”

2. They say: “The weight that people give to the present satisfaction far outweigh logical reasoning of good profits and advantages a year later.

Reason says: “In time of great uncertainty the best recourse is thinking on ways to cope with its consequences.”  The reality of human nature says: “In time of great instability, the past is gone and the future is uncertain; thus, let us enjoy the moment; we have one life to live.

3. The greedy financial managers and analysts say: “People learned to save their liquid money in banks:  Any money in the pocket is spent readily.  Consumerism culture resorted to the devilish credit card mechanism to trap and sap human saving good intentions.”

4. They say: “It is a disorienting characteristic of human temperament that, knowing full-well the ultimate disaster of their actions (investing for short-term benefits), we keep believing that we are immune to bad results and that we are of the lucky-types to having the intuition of jumping ship at the nick of time.”

5. They say: “A father or head of a family feels that he is better off retaining a few debts so that he is forced to staying alert to snatching opportunities.  The father or mother prefers to be indebted and feeling permanently threatened with financial instability in order to be on his toes and keep going day-in day-out.”

6. They say: “Financial managers and operators learned to take the money quickly and run with it and not looking back:  As the crisis arrives and the shit hits the fan they are no longer in the job  and they working somewhere else.

7. They say: “All regulations and restrictions on new shares offered to managers of enterprises were dropped in most companies.  Instead, managers were encouraged to speculate immediately with their shares in order to keep the managers constantly on the lookout for short-term profits to the enterprise.

It is true that there are financial risk-takers and they are a minority category of people.

It is true that many are willing to risk their lives on dangerous adventures not related to money.

It is true there are a few cultures that train their people on risk-taking games not necessarily waging real money.  Fact is, financial managers are no kids or inexperienced on inevitable financial crisis and their symptoms (steady bull market for successive long years).

Financial managers explicitly encouraged the young operators to behaving as if “there is no tomorrow” and take the money and run.  The State will inevitably comes to the rescue in no time.

Financial managers are no dumb:  They know that money transferred around at the speed of light are fictitious money, hundred times overvalued with respect to gold or any goods of values.

Thus, they think that they may as well play this game of risks as if they are playing with beans, candies, or crackers.  It barely comes to their mind that they are playing with the earnings of millions of hard-working people, money earned by blood and sweat.

Greedy financial managers know they rule the world:

1. That they are far more powerful than any government or a combination of unified governments.  2. They know that they are transacting 5 trillion dollars a day, twice more than all the powerful governments managed to save for emergency situations.

3. Greedy financial managers know that they have far more lawyers, consultants, and expert in financial matters than any government can harass them with:  The odds favor the financial institutions in any legal battle.

4. Greedy financial managers know that governments have not many experts or professionals to managing and regulating the financial markets and institutions.  Governments end up hiring financial experts who worked at the financial institutions they mean to regulate.

It is beyond natural individual greed: International capitalism has replaced bourgeois capitalism by mafias-types capitalism at a world scale and nobody dares to investigate into, account for, or prosecute.

The traditional entrepreneur used to say: “This cow is producing my daily milk.”  The mafias multinational boss says: “When I see a cow I feel hungry for steaks

Still, governments have one edge over financial multinationals:  Government hold the “law and order” power.

Jail the financial managers and their bosses before legally prosecuting them and they will come to their reason: they will drop all their flatulent blame games and puny scapegoats.

Oligarchy on the way out in Lebanon

Lebanon has been governed by an oligarchy system since its independence in 1943.

About half a dozen tribal or feudal or religious sect leaders have been manipulating the political landscape and social structure of Lebanon ever since and going on, unabashed.

After the 13 years of civil war, the deputies were rounded up and dispatched to Taif in Saudi Arabia in order to sign up on a revised Constitution that was not a Constitution by any yardstick conforming to sovereign and independent State.  Not a single paragraph detailed or explained how the government would apply the Constitution in times of crisis.

For example, in designating a Prime Minister, the President who was appointed in Doha (Qatar), is to consult with the blocks of deputies and appoint the one who received the most votes.

Questions:

1.  If the President refuses to appoint a Prime Minister according to the majority of the deputies then what happens?  Nothing in the Taif “Constitution” attached a procedure to getting out of that impasse.

2. If the Prime Minister is unable to form a government then what happens?  Nothing in the Taif Constitution mentioned a procedure to overcoming that problem. There is no deadline restricting the designated PM to forming a government!  If the PM forms a government, the President has two weeks to sign.

3. If the President refuses to sign on the proposed government then what happens?  Nothing in the new Constitution broached this difficulty.

4. If the chamber of deputy is unable to function properly then what happen?  Nothing in the Constitution that proposes any kinds of  alternatives.  The deputies get paid for four years over $20,000 per month, excluding all the hundreds of fringe benefits and thousands of privileges to them and the members of their extended family.  No one is legitimate enough to send the deputies home and call for another election.

5. If the government is unable to vote by two-third on critical matters then the entire political and administrative machinery is at standstil,l until a new President is voted in (sorry, agreed upon by foreign States) after a 6-year term.

Currently, the oligarchy has created 76 institutions, supposed to be attached to the different ministries,and directly run by the Prime Minister who is from the Hariri clan.  Consequently, many enterprises held by the Hariri clan have their public contracts renewed automatically with yearly outrageous increases; the unity government tried to get informed on the clauses of the contracts with no responses so far.

Since the signing on the Taif constitution in 1991, Lebanon had to be ruled and regulated by a political consensus among Syria, Saudi Arabia, and the US, the co-signers on the constitution.  Basically, Lebanon is under the de-facto mandated powers of three foreign States, if the Lebanese want to live in peace and security.

Since 1991, the successive government of Lebanon refused or were blocked to present a budget to the chamber of deputy for discussion and amendments.  Lebanon is functioning without a formal budget.  Over $20 billion in foreign aides were not recorded officially in the finance registers; all that money were diverted among the oligarchic leaders and their political and clan parties.

For a year, Lebanon has been “enjoying” a unity national government, including all the major political parties, excepting the Communist party.  For a year now, all political representatives in the government have confirmed that this government failed to agree on a single political or social program that may unify or ease the living conditions of the people; they all agreed that the government has failed in its mission but there is no constitutional recourse to getting this government resign, unless the Prime Minister takes the initiative.

The “opposition” parties, within this unity government, have began discussing the application of serious urgent political decisions before the pronouncement of the International Tribunal on the assassination of Rafiq Hariri.

First, the “opposition” within the government is demanding that the false witnesses in the assassination case be brought to trial in Lebanese court system:  The International Tribunal claimed that it has no mandate judging false witnesses. The false witnesses were created and coached on the story to be told by higher-ups to politically incriminate Syria.

Now, Syria is no longer a suspect but many Lebanese officials were sent to jail without judgement, solely based on the false witnesses sayings.  More than 70% of the Lebanese are convinced that the International Tribunal is politicized by the USA in order to keeping the pressures on the oligarchy leaders to doing its bidding and organizing another civil war.

The opposition deputies have been investigating the financial administration, disbursement of funds, and official records that have never been investigated since 1991 and amazing facts are coming to lights.

1. 50% of the Lebanese are living under the poverty line ;

2.  20% are barely surviving as retailers, corner shop owners, and small agriculture.

3. 15% of the population are public servants and receiving salaries that has been stagnant for over 20 years, while inflation has been running 5% per year:  No wonder that bribing is considered normal by public servants in order to make ends meet.

Anyway, most of the public servants are not qualified in their jobs: They have been appointed by the oligarchy for political check and balance within the political landscape.  10% are making a living as “political consultants” to the oligarchy.  4% of the population are producing something of values, such as in industry and agriculture.

Barely 1% of the population own over 80% of the wealth of the “nation” and they are represented in banking,  insurance companies, monopoly wholesalers (mercantile class) importing everything from overseas.

As long as the Lebanese resistance of Hezbollah is strong, organized, and saving Lebanon from further Israeli incursions then, there is a new spirit of setting things on the right tracks and reaching a fairer reform to the political structure.

Sudan’s economy relies 98% on its oil production.  China receives 65% of the oil production and Japan 16% and India 4%.  While the US was prosecuting its preemptive war in Iraq for 9 years, China and India were heavily investing in oil rich African States and exploiting vast regions by major rivers for industrial agribusiness and rice fields.  China was bartering oil for building infrastructures to exporting oil and the natural resources it is exploiting (as in colonial times).  Most of the regions for oil exploration and extraction are located on the bordering line of the prospected partition.

Sudan is bordered by 9 States; all border lines are makeshift borders that colonial powers of England, France ,and Italy drew on “virgin maps”.  The southern part produces 65% of the oil and the agreement is to dividing 50% of all oil production between the two States in 2005, even before the coming referendum. Currently, north Sudan is holding the purse, the locations of the two refineries, and the oil pipeline that serves the major port of export in Port Sudan.

The people in south Sudan are expected to vote on the referendum for either an autonomous or an independent south Sudan in 2011.  A peace agreement signed in 2005 between the State of Sudan and the southern separatist movements put formally an end to an open civil war that lasted 17 years, since 1987, and displaced over 4 million; it is estimated that 2 million perished, mostly from famine, diseases, tribal infighting, and military campaigns.

Sudan is a vast State, as large as the USA (excluding Alaska) but is barely as populated as Egypt, less than 50 million. It acquired its independence from colonial England in 1956. England ruled this vast colony from the Capital Khartoum and totally neglected the southern part; England kept south Sudan in order to securing the sources of the Nile River that start in Ethiopia and Uganda and empty in the delta of Egypt in the Mediterranean Sea.

Foreign media are disseminating wrong information:  They are claiming that the people in south Sudan are Christians and want independence from the Moslem north.  Fact is, most tribes in Sudan, north and south, are animists:  They respect nature, the seasons, the ancestors, and the oral traditions and myths.  The people in Sudan, north and south, have been impoverished and discarded by world communities for 5 decades; they are suffering frequent famine and were plagued by common diseases, and dying from curable illnesses.

If the people in the south decide for independence, the first critical problem to resolving is how the equitable sharing of 50% of the oil agreement can be planned, managed, and executed; the negotiations on the procedures is the main cornerstone problem and it might drag for long time without “independent south Sudan” receiving its due share.

China will make sure that oil production will resume unaffected by internal disagreements and deals will be made with the State of Sudan until “independent south Sudan” demonstrates that it is a reliable State to negotiate with.  How the State of Sudan will reimburse its massive military machinery debts from Russia and China if oil production is disturbed?

The people in south Sudan have no interest in a complete independence:  the history in the last forty years, for third world States that got their independence, demonstrated that the next two decades will be ripe for internal conflicts among the powerful tribes and that most of the oil benefit will be siphoned into private bank accounts and internal leaders receiving handsome bribes from international companies, doing business and plundering the natural resources.  South Sudan will be the scene of camouflaged mandated control and management by foreign nations and regional powers.

The people in south Sudan have interest for an autonomous region.  All the central government institutions in the Capital Khartoum could be duplicated in Juba (the de-facto Capital in South Sudan) for the smooth functioning of the central government in the south.

The State of Sudan, independent for more than 50 years, has already relatively well-oiled army, financial institutions, and foreign ministry that are ready for reform that would satisfy the requirements of a newly autonomous region.  I believe that voting for independence will be a major handicap for any further reforms in north Sudan.

Salva Kir, the leader of the south Sudan movement, has already set the tone for a major phase of terribly discontent with northern Sudan. He blatantly made a  public statesman that he will immediately open diplomatic channels with Israel.  The worst part in the statesman was the announcement that Israel will become a major commercial and supplier of war equipments and training.  Salva Kir thinks that inviting bears in his back yard is normal behavior from intelligent people.

Note:  Satellite pictures of Sudan shows that the line of partition separates the semi-desert region in the north from the greener equatorial region in the south.  If the people in south Sudan opt for independence then, south Sudan will be bordered by the Central African Republic on the west, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Uganda in the south, Kenya, Ethiopia in the east.  It will lack any access to the Ocean and will need to invest heavily for infrastructures to exporting by sea through treaties with neighboring States.  Otherwise, south Sudan will be strongly dependent on north Sudan for exporting its oil production.  Maybe vast underpopulated countries such as Canada, Australia, Argentina, and Kazakhstan should be partitioned too for more effective management and equitable distribution of resources among all ethnic minorities.


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

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