Adonis Diaries

It is good what is happening in Syria

Peaceful demonstrations in Syria got usurped by violent armed militants.  The regime of Bashar Assad reacted accordingly and very efficiently to armed uprising, as it used to do for 40 years.  The tanks of the army entered and “cleaned up the violent elements” in Daraa, and moved on the “cleaning machines” to Banias, and Homs…

As the regime is about to proclaim that it stomped out the armed elements, and the counter-offensive ia about to end on violence, the next phase for the non-violent marches will prove to be very efficient in winning political changes. Whoever was excited to destabilize Syria in violent tactics will be proved wrong in his judgment.

Syria has always been a cross-road to extremist Islamic militants, converging in Syria before forking out to “hot regions”.  The Syrian regime has accurate intelligence on most of these extremist factions and has used them frequently in many bordering States.  Lebanon suffered heavily from these Islamist militants in the war of the Nahr al Bared Palestinian camp (over 200 Lebanese soldiers killed during 6 months of fighting), and in the slaughter of 11 civilians in the Lebanese village of Halba in 2008.

It is not a matter of earning higher salaries.  The people in Syria are demanding that opposition movements share in political decisions and processes.  The people want to feel safe expressing their opinions and upholding their rights of gathering, and organizing publicly and privately.  The people want equitable and legitimate legal systems, legitimate election laws, fair representation in the parliament and municipal councils…

The next phase of non-violent marches will face harsh difficulties.  In Egypt, the non-violent movements were against a Mubarak regime that demonstrated total subjugation to the US and Israeli dictates and senile incapacity of reigning in the wave of blatant speculations, at the expense of the growth and need of the people; speculations run by Mubarak sons and close relatives…

Syria has disseminated the image of confronting US and Israel interests in the region.  It was basically an image, since the regime in Syria is holding tight for the tacit support of the US and Israel.  And the Syrian regime has maintained a socialist policy that provided free education and health care…

It will not be enough to brandishing the banners of democracy and liberty. The non-violent Syrian movements will need time to structure a very convincing alternative that should secure the same level of basic care, in addition to reforming the political decision-making system.

It is total nonsense proclaiming that the Syrians are not ready for democratic institutions:  Syria enjoyed democratic institutions for two decades and it had the highest education level in the region.  The Syrian people has experienced many forms of political systems and they can design a system that is very performing in matters of human rights and human development indicators.

Unlike the non-violent movements in Egypt and Tunisia, the non-violent movements in Syria will have to negotiate with the tyrant Bashar and his oligarchy:  Simply because this regime is supported by the US and Israel.  The interim phase of succession will keep Bashar in power (without the close oligarchy), and Israel will be wise to accept a short timetable for withdrawing from occupied Golan Heights.  The next regime in Syria will have no alternative but to recover the occupied lands by force, and nothing but force, no matter the cost, and it will be successful.

The Assad dictatorship has to go and its oligarchic structure, but how to go about it? The Syrian people are about to shed many more sacrifices (proportionally to the population) than the Egyptians might have been ready to. A people’s victory in Syria will be the definitive proof that non-violent resistance movements can smash any kinds of oligarchies, no matter how entrenched the system is.

Once the people change this regime that lasted 40 years, the Syrians will be freed from the constant humiliations of pressures exercised by the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia and will recover their lost lands occupied by the puny State of Israel.

Note 1: Rami Makhlouf (41 of age and a close relative of Bashar) and the main financier of the family Assad said in an interview to the New York Times “Any destabilization of Syria will have direct destabilizing effects on Israel.  The Syrian government has decided to fight back and the “oligarchy” has rallied around Bashar in this critical moment.

Note 2:  The European Union has listed recently 13 Syrian officials as persona non-grata for participating in the repression of civilians.  Among these names: Maher Assad (younger brother of Bashar) and chief of the 4th army division; Ali Mamlouk (chief of general intelligence); Hafez Makhlouf (close relative of Bashar) in the military intelligence; Rami Makhlouf (close relative of Bashar) and the main financier of the family Assad; Munder and Fawwaz Al Assad; Rustum Ghazali (chief of military intelligence in the suburb of Damascus (reef Damascus) and who was the latest highest Syrian official during Syria occupation of Lebanon before 2005…