Adonis Diaries

2 Responses to "Is Lebanon political system immune to radical non-violent revolts? Black Swan theory NOT applicable? Think again!"

I feel you have missed Taleb’s point. Do no forget that Taleb too is Lebanese and has seen the civil war of Lebanon through his own eyes. The point he is trying to make is that Lebanon is fundamentally and structurally different from say a Libya or an Egypt, where due to the long reign of dictators, turmoil is artificially supressed. This increases the risk of widespread chaos like we saw in Libya or Egypt or Tunisia. All three countries had long reign of dictators and this made the state vulnerable to breakdown of the system. Lebanon on the other hand is going through continual political turmoil without any suppression. Thus, relatively compared to Libya or Egypt (Or other long ruling dictatorships like Syria or even Saudi Arabia) has lesser risk of the system blowing up.

Infact, Taleb is one of the very few commentators who predicted the Arab uprising. Please read page number 205 of Black Swan for the prediction that I am mentioning. The book was published 3 years before the uprising started.

I am pretty cognizant to what you wrote, and it is precisely of taleb’s refutal that Lebanon will never experience any serious uprising that I posted this article: the lebanese society will surge and reform its archaic system…

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June 2011

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