Archive for July 1st, 2011
Is Turkey doing the “bidding of the US” in the Middle East?
Apparently, the US has “contained” the Arab Spring revolts, though the US is far from getting a handle on its financial and economic problems: The US is not seriously facing its internal turmoil.
A few leading European States have vested traditional interests in northern Africa and the Middle East States, and thus, the European Union is not about to reach a consensus on political guidelines for confronting the “Arab” upheavals.
Wise Germany has realized that the Arab temporary governments have not relinquished the US as the leading leverage power for resolving their internal conflicts. Consequently, Germany has declined to interfere in any military forms: Germany is waiting for the dust to settle and expand its economic export and industrial might in the Mediterranean basin.
The Moslem Brotherhood political parties in Egypt, Libya, Syria, and Yemen are very satisfied with the negotiations conducted with the US Administration. In fact, Islamic movements in Yemen are cracking down on the youth movement and putting democratic demonstrators in jails: Many Yemenites wished they didn’t weaken the regime of dictator President Saleh so badly. The Moslem Brotherhood in Egypt is assured a sizable share in the next parliament and government ,and actually confronting the youth movement for change. Tunisia is back to harassing and suppressing demonstrations…
Turkey seriously wants the Syrian-kind of Moslem Brotherhood to share power with the Assad regime: It quickly gathered the Moslem factions in Turkey to meet and challenge the Syrian regime…Turkey strategy is to have inside power in Syria politics in order to balance out the strong influence of Iran and Syria in Iraq politic scene. Consequently, Syria regime is not against reforms, but it has serious doubts about giving the Syrian Moslem Brotherhood party substantial influence on foreign policies (read note). Turkey has to wait for better opportunities to obtaining equal weight in influencing Iraqi politics.
Syria responded by inviting all the opposition parties and leaders to meet in Damascus, thus diluting the Turkish strategy.
What about Turkey?
Erdogan party won the election (50% of the votes), but Erdogan PM was waiting, stone faced in the Parliament, for the opposition deputies to officially recognize him as the new leader: The opposition failed to show up because many elected deputies are still held in prison!
It feels that Turkey and the US have agreed that the sharing of power with Moslem Brotherhood factions in the Greater Middle-East is the best alternative to maintaining their vested financial and economic interests in the Middle-East and northern Africa prospering as before the uprising.
Turkey, as the other colonial powers, made deals with the previous dictators and absolute monarchs: It is so convenient and easy to deal with “stable” oligarchies. For example, Mohammar Qadhafi invested billion in Turkey in order to bring the Erdogan Party to power. In fact, 27,000 Turkish engineers and professionals were working in Libya as the revolt started.
The time has come for Turkey to demonstrate that it can navigate among “democratic” regimes in the Arab World and is willing to deal with the people, as the source of power.
So far, Turkey is giving the impression that it filed the Palestinian case and is linking with Israel for various political reasons. Turkey is giving the impression that it is no longer hot for the armada of humanitarian aid “Freedom 2” to reaching Gaza. Had anyone read that Israel officially apologized to the assassination of the 9 Turkish peace “agitators” on “Freedom 1” convoy? As if shelving the Palestinian cause for an independent Statehood and the return of Palestinian refugees has ever resolved any problem in the Middle East.
Turkey has been undertaking a slow but steady regional economic “imperialism” by eroding the emerging industries and production bases in the regional States with the flood of its cheaper export products. The Syrian government was forced to subsidize its industries in Aleppo in order to maintain its development plans and programs.
Turkey is associating its geo-political strategy with the US, under the tacit US conditions. This is not a good medium-term tactics: The “Arabs” have revolted because they are indignant of the US and former colonial powers supporting and encouraging dictatorial and absolute monarchy regime for over a century now. The anger against Turkey and its former Ottoman hegemony might resurface.
Note: In the 60’s, a Syrian by name of Marwan 7adid (Hadid= Iron), returned from Egypt and settled in Damascus, and began disseminated an extremist Islamic ideology acquired from the Egyptian “Islam brotherhood”. Marwan got no responses, but he persisted and managed to gather a few extreme and violent Islamists. One of them was an officer in the army and machine-gunned many officers in Hama. The response of late Hafez al Assad was to enter the city of Hama by force in 1981, and eradicate Islam extremist elements.
Lebanon to where? After this intermediate stage (opposition government) to a State of citizenship
Posted by: adonis49 on: July 1, 2011
Lebanon to where? This intermediate stage to a State of citizenship
Finally, Mikati PM formed a government. For over four months, the Lebanese knew that Mikati was waiting for a “green light” from a regional power to stop suffocating Lebanon with irrelevant local smokescreens. Anyway, Lebanon has been run by “virtual governments” for decades, most of the time the sort of care-taker governments, governments that run daily affairs for their families, waiting for short-lived official governments to be sworn in. So what happened?
At first, Syria of Bashar al Assad was in no hurry for Mikati to constituting a government: Bashar was waiting for concessions from the US and Saudi Arabia to ease his way…Concessions were not forthcoming: Instead, a popular revolt was fomented against, or “naturally erupted as urgent moratorium on”, this dictator clannish regime of the Assad family.
Hezbollah was seriously shaken with the hysterical violent reactions of the Syrian regime in confronting peaceful early marches. Hezbollah felt that, if the Bashar al Assad fails to regain his composure as a reliable and viable legitimate entity, the Syrian dictator might cow down under the pressures of the US and European States, and strike a deal at the expense of Hezbollah’s growing power in Lebanon.
Consequently, Hezbollah lead a concentrated effort to coax Bashar to focusing some of his attention to the deteriorating situation in Lebanon and put the squeeze on Mikati PM to forming a government, and immediately.
The rational of Hezbollah was that, if Lebanon is left in the vacuum with no legitimate government, most probably Syria might be cornered to conduct incursions within Lebanon borders and things might get out of hand. The Syrian regime realized that it behaved hysterically and went overboard, killing and incarcerating scores of innocent people and peaceful demonstrators.
The Syrian opposition groupuscules were invited to meet in Damascus, instead of moving around between Turkey, Paris, and lately Russia…The strategy worked. And General Secretary of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasr Allah, delivered his third speech frankly supporting the Assad regime
Mikati PM formed a government quickly, but it has yet to submit to Parliament a unified paper of intent as to its guidelines. It is no surprise that this politisized International Court for the assassination of Rafic Hariri decided to submit the miserly four names as potential perpetrators to the assassination. Mikati PM government finalized its paper to coincide with the International Court decision.
Hezbollah is temporarily off the hook, and the threat of a deal with Syria of Bashar at its expense has been delayed. Why?
First, the submission of official names by the International Court (IC) releaves Lebanon from this masquerade that has been dragging on for over 6 years: The four names have been out of Lebanon for the last 30 years, and two of the names are believed to be virtual names, not registered as Lebanese “citizens”. The IC “bomb” landed but didn’t explode: Lebanon went on as usual. Even if the US and Israel detonate the bomb by remote control, most likely the bomb is totally outdated and rotten and will do no damage that the Lebanese have endured in the last decade.
Second, the blade of the sword of the International Court on the assassination of late Rafic Hariri PM has been blunted: Hezbollah did a good job discrediting this politicized court. The Lebanese have learned that the legitimacy in the institution of this special International Court is to be desired. Why?
First, the UN has no basis to seeking chapter seven: Lebanon was not experiencing any civil war, and no massacres were witnessed. A “legitimate” government was running the country. What of the far more serious cases of “crimes against humanity” of President of Bashir of Sudan that UN is waiting to be captured and yet being warmly welcomed in China? What of Qadhafi and his son…? What of Bush Jr., Ramsfield, Tony Blair,…
Second, the Lebanese government of Seniora PM was barely representing 30% of the people when it demanded for the institution of this court. All the Shiaa ministers (representing 60% of the people) had quit the government. And the ministers of the Christian political party of the Tayyar (representing more than 50% of the Christians) had also quit the government. By the Constitution, if one of the main religious group is out of the government then, the government is not “legitimate”…
Lebanon is a very tiny, highly volatile, unstable society, and NOT immune to radical revolts. How unstable?
First, since independence in 1943, Lebanon officially recognized two failed internal coup d’etats, one in 1949 and another in 1961. There are a dozen of other unofficial military coups. Lately, Lebanon witnessed a minor failed coup d’etat at the ministry of communication, because a private interest wanted to conserve its mobile communication business.
Second, Lebanon witnessed two civil wars, one in 1958 and another one in 1975 that lasted 17 years. Since the end of the civil war in 1991, Lebanon experienced a major military coup d’etat in 2008 that started in the Palestinian camp of Nahr el Bared around Tripoli: The army needed 11 months to overcome the uprising of the Islamist salafists Jund al Sham. Many short-lived unofficially recognized civil wars occurred since 1991.
Beirut experienced a quick military coup in 2007 by Hezbollah, as the government attempted to control land communication lines. The war of 2006 against Israel was actually a military coup perpetrated by the Lebanese government to control Hezbollah’s military might.
Third, Lebanon is practically a Non-State country since its independence. The 18 religious sects represent the main de-facto powers and also by law to exercising political influence. Civil status of every “citizen” is run and administered by the officially recognized religious sects that own more than 50% of the land. Every religious sect is backed by over three confessional “political parties”.
The two historically secular political parties, the communist and the Syrian National Social parties, were denied participation in the Parliament via biased and tailored-made election laws and procedures. The Syrian National Social party was recently permitted to enter the parliament, carried on the shoulders of other main confessional parties. The multi-theocratic system, backed by the financial institutions that lend Lebanon governments to cover their budget deficit, have vested interests in prohibiting the constitution of any viable and sustainable modern State governing system.
Fourth, Lebanon lacks sustainable public institutions and any long-term programs and policies. The only benefit the citizen enjoys is a mere passport. There exist no serious governance for the people to march against and demand reforms. It is like demanding from Qadhafi to relinquish his authority and Qadhafi replying: “But I have no official posts or even an official job to relinquish!”
This “opposition” government will do a great job “masking our virtual State” in strengthening the legal system, confront the highway robberies of the Hariri clan governments, and give the impression that Lebanon is an autonomous State…but the fundamentals will not change and Lebanon will remain a multi-theocratic State, run by the financial institutions and clerics…
The hot season has started in the northern hemisphere, and the stream of “Spring Revolts” might cool off a bit. In Lebanon, we missed the spring upheavals that swept the “Arab” world, but we planted the seed of a fresh drastic non-violent revolt for the next spring season.
The youth in Lebanon organized five marches in various cities in Lebanon demanding change in the confessional political structure. The banners of “We want to change the regime” is extending credit to a non-State, as if Lebanon has a State and non a virtual State run by de-facto clerical and financial powers. What the banners should say are: “We want to create a State”, and “We want to feel citizens in the modern concept of a State”.
Next Spring, the revolt will still be non-violent, but the target and purpose of the revolt will not be a matter of patching up a reform here and another there. The traditional “leaders” have demonstrated that they refuse to establish a functioning State for all “citizens”: Lebanon has been run by Non-State governments, or care-taker governments.
The youth Movement for Change must be ready for the dawn of the next spring season: It must start doing serious due diligence. For example,
First, specialized teams have to dig-up and dust-off the policies and programs stored in the basements of ministries. The goal of reviewing and revising already studied programs is: “A political system from the people to the people”.
The Lebanese have to feel true citizens with equal rights under the law. The Lebanese have to enjoy fair and equitable election laws that allow common people to accede to decision-making positions.
Laws have to be revised for citizens, regardless of genders, race, or religious affiliation, to have fair opportunities to all political positions and job opportunities in the public and private institutions and enterprises.
The Constitution has to be re-written to separate religion from civil power and responsibility…
Radical changes are possible: There are no other alternatives to patching up a rotten political and social structure; it is not feasible to move on with small incremental reforms under the power of the ferocious religious and financial oligarchies that have been dominating our lives and subjugating us to constant instability and indignities.
We have grown up to be mature and responsible adult “citizens”. Lebanon is Not immune to drastic revolts, and the next revolution will be successful!
Adonis Diaries 