Adonis Diaries

Archive for July 1st, 2011

Is Turkey doing the “bidding of the US” in the Middle East?

Apparently, the US has “contained” the Arab Spring revolts, though the US is far from getting a handle on its financial and economic problems: The US is not seriously facing its internal turmoil.

A few leading European States have vested traditional interests in northern Africa and the Middle East States, and thus, the European Union is not about to reach a consensus on political guidelines for confronting the “Arab” upheavals.

Wise Germany has realized that the Arab temporary governments have not relinquished the US as the leading leverage power for resolving their internal conflicts.  Consequently, Germany has declined to interfere in any military forms: Germany is waiting for the dust to settle and expand its economic export and industrial might in the Mediterranean basin.

The Moslem Brotherhood political parties in Egypt, Libya, Syria, and Yemen are very satisfied with the negotiations conducted with the US Administration.  In fact, Islamic movements in Yemen are cracking down on the youth movement and putting democratic demonstrators in jails:  Many Yemenites wished they didn’t weaken the regime of dictator President Saleh so badly. The Moslem Brotherhood in Egypt is assured a sizable share in the next parliament and government ,and actually confronting the youth movement for change.  Tunisia is back to harassing and suppressing demonstrations…

Turkey seriously wants the Syrian-kind of Moslem Brotherhood to share power with the Assad regime: It quickly gathered the Moslem factions in Turkey to meet and challenge the Syrian regime…Turkey strategy is to have inside power in Syria politics in order to balance out the strong influence of Iran and Syria in Iraq politic scene.  Consequently, Syria regime is not against reforms, but it has serious doubts about giving the Syrian Moslem Brotherhood party substantial influence on foreign policies (read note).  Turkey has to wait for better opportunities to obtaining equal weight in influencing Iraqi politics.

Syria responded by inviting all the opposition parties and leaders to meet in Damascus, thus diluting the Turkish strategy.

What about Turkey?

Erdogan party won the election (50% of the votes), but Erdogan PM was waiting, stone faced in the Parliament, for the opposition deputies to officially recognize him as the new leader:  The opposition failed to show up because many elected deputies are still held in prison!

It feels that Turkey and the US have agreed that the sharing of power with Moslem Brotherhood factions in the Greater Middle-East is the best alternative to maintaining their vested financial and economic interests in the Middle-East and northern Africa prospering as before the uprising.

Turkey, as the other colonial powers, made deals with the previous dictators and absolute monarchs:  It is so convenient and easy to deal with “stable” oligarchies.  For example, Mohammar Qadhafi invested billion in Turkey in order to bring the Erdogan Party to power. In fact, 27,000 Turkish engineers and professionals were working in Libya as the revolt started.

The time has come for Turkey to demonstrate that it can navigate among “democratic” regimes in the Arab World and is willing to deal with the people, as the source of power.

So far, Turkey is giving the impression that it filed the Palestinian case and is linking with Israel for various political reasons.  Turkey is giving the impression that it is no longer hot for the armada of humanitarian aid “Freedom 2” to reaching Gaza.  Had anyone read that Israel officially apologized to the assassination of the 9 Turkish peace “agitators” on “Freedom 1” convoy?  As if shelving the Palestinian cause for an independent Statehood and the return of Palestinian refugees has ever resolved any problem in the Middle East.

Turkey has been undertaking a slow but steady regional economic “imperialism” by eroding the emerging industries and production bases in the regional States with the flood of its cheaper export products.  The Syrian government was forced to subsidize its industries in Aleppo in order to maintain its development plans and programs.

Turkey is associating its geo-political strategy with the US, under the tacit US conditions.  This is not a good medium-term tactics:  The “Arabs” have revolted because they are indignant of the US and former colonial powers supporting and encouraging dictatorial and absolute monarchy regime for over a century now.  The anger against Turkey and its former Ottoman hegemony might resurface.

Note: In the 60’s, a Syrian by name of Marwan 7adid (Hadid= Iron), returned from Egypt and settled in Damascus, and began disseminated an extremist Islamic ideology acquired from the Egyptian “Islam brotherhood”.  Marwan got no responses, but he persisted and managed to gather a few extreme and violent Islamists. One of them was an officer in the army and machine-gunned many officers in Hama.  The response of late Hafez al Assad was to enter the city of Hama by force in 1981, and eradicate Islam extremist elements.




July 2011

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