Adonis Diaries

Archive for July 8th, 2011

What’s going in Hama (Syria)? Western States selective memories: Stability is NOT synonymous with continuity of political systems!

What’s going in the fourth largest city Hama (700,000 citizens) in Syria?  News were too overestimating the number of demonstrators at 500,000 marchers! Nevertheless, it is an indication that Hama is against the Assad regime, stock and lock.  Hama is probably the most strategic city in Syria for internal logistics, located smack in the center of Syria.

The French daily Liberation reported from a nurse working in the hospital in Hama: “On July 3rd, the hospital received 35 civilians killed by live ammunitions.  The people in Hama are in a state of rage.  They used to demonstrate peacefully after closing shops and on Friday.  Right now, they refuse to leave their city and let the brutal Syrian security forces enter easily.  The citizens are burning tires and setting up barricades.”

Robert Fisk wrote in the British The Independence: “The cycle in Syria is closing on.  On February 1982, the regime of Hafez Assad opened fire with tanks on the civilians in Hama for many days and killed over 10,000 at least.  This time around, the revolt is not concentrated on Islamists.  The people have rekindled the indignities (zul) they suffered three decades ago.”  A hundred families have fled Hama, as long as fleeing is not the trend, as in Jisr al Shaghour.

Last month, the Syrian regime decided not to encircle or enter Hama:  Hama streets were left to the peaceful insurgents.  A couple of days ago, Bashar al Assad decided to send over 100 tanks to surround Hama and its suburbs, and resumed searching every house… Lately, the US ambassador and the French ambassador decided to visit Hama, on the eve of Friday prayers.  Are they trying to send the strong message:  Syria regime, “No pasaran into Hama”!

Sarkis Naoum, the editorialist in the Lebanese daily al Nahar, wrote: “There is no real survival for the ethnic minorities in the Middle-East, as there is no stability for the brutal majority rules”. (This is a most important topic to be discussed at length)

It is time to comprehend that stability is Not synonymous with continuity, and vice versa.  For example, Lebanon political structure has been instituted to be a Non-State for over 70 years, and still going “strong”, but Lebanon barely witnessed any kind of stability for any length of time.  Military coups and civil wars are score, if we count the unofficially recognized coup and civil wars.

The dictators and absolute monarchs and their oligarchies were happy noticing the heads of the Western leaders nodding approval that the continuity of their regimes is synonymous to stability of the western interests.  The western leaders knew better, but it is so convenient to dealing with dictators “who deliver” on biased non-discussed contracts, by any representative of the people and at the expense of the wealth of a developing country.

Israel is serious about launching its nth preemptive war, early this September for several reasons:

First, Israel knows that war (the only activity that Israel did better than anything else before the 2006 war) is the best diplomatic means to delaying the establishment of a Palestinian State:  A war before the UN vote will delay the issue and Israel will gain more time for proving that a Palestinian State is a geo-political non-feasibility…

Second, Israel will try again, using a different military strategy to weakening the military might of Hezbollah.  Hezbollah is the most scary enemy to Israel because no system can destroy short and medium-range missiles, landing by the hundreds on cities, towns, airfields, and military infrastructure and production complexes…

Third, Israel will coax Syria to respond and take the initiative to demolishing the regime security forces centers and headquarter of Bashar al Assad.  Consequently, facilitating regime change and weakening the strategic links of Iran in that region.

Fourth, Israel is about to get the green light for that preemptive war from the US and Turkey.  This triumvirate has reached an agreement that the Moslem Brotherhood parties sharing power in Egypt and Syria is good to business and stability.

Iran wishes that Israel will refrain from coaxing the Syrian regime into a war, simply because any war with Syria will change the name of the game with its strategic ally.  Iran wants to agree with the US, China, and Russia that the most plausible alternative in the short-term is a resumption of benign insurgencies, and the Syrian regime not going overboard with its repressions.  I believe Israel beg to foolishly differ:  Israel military infrastructure and production is the strongest catalyst for engaging in preemptive wars:  It is good for business and for the military budget in periods of internal crisis.

Lebanon will endure harsh periods whether Bashar regime succeed or fail.  Especially, if a civil war sweeps Syria:  Lebanon social structure is so drastically divisive.  Would the new Lebanese government take seriously the imminent next preemptive war and vigorously coordinate the defensive strategy among the resistance, the army, and the people?

Frankly, what may delay the preemptive war in early September is a strong stand by Egypt (State and people) and a change of regime in Syria.  I believe, this time around, a preemptive war launched by Israel will be catastrophic to this Zionist State, economically, politically, and militarily.  Definite political and social changes will get roots in the Middle-East.  “An Arab Autumn Revolt” will spread its fire and seeds for freedom and democratic systems.

Note: It is plausible that Israel might advance its D-Day as Syria tanks enter Hama:  Thus, fomenting a civil war that was not forthcoming.

Death is not depressing:  It is the Wham! The silence afterward

A second ago, you have this lively creature, and then it ceases to move; that must be depressing.  It is like a vigorous mosquito, stinging you and harassing you…and wham!  You feel relieved, but can’t shake off this feeling of depression at the sight of this inanimate so little thing, which captured all your attention a short while ago, and covered the entire room with its buzzing…

Luckily, we feel depressed on rare occasions (don’t we? Occasions that catalyze our depressive moods are rarer than Fukushima catastrophe!):  You are pretty sure the mosquito is dead, but the body cannot be located anywhere.  Legally, there is no ground to feeling depressed.  It is like the security forces of a violent dictator or absolute monarch:  The first fundamental they learn is “First, Dig the Mass Grave”.  You don’t want families parading the “martyrs” in open streets and displaying the distorted bodies in open gaskets, and chanting victory or “down with…”.

It is not death that is depressing: It is this sustained calm and silence, before the storm, a calamity about to strike.  It is like a brutal dictator watching a lively and peaceful demonstration down his window:  He cannot feel depressed at this junction!  Suddenly, his security forces disperse the marchers; the streets are emptied, and quietude is re-established.  The next day…Wham! A few officers who had been filmed live disfiguring a cadaver, suddenly disappear.  Capital mistake:  You forgot that the dictator should not be given any reason to feeling depressed. Sort of a strong correlation existing between feeling depressed and feeling guilty.

It is like a close friend is reduced to being paraplegic; his brain is still functioning full speed, and even much better than in his agitated lively state,  nothing works.  No matter how you prepare your attitude to acting upbeat, it never works, you are a lousy actor when depressed. 

It is like you are engaged in a crazy discussion, and somehow you “misplaced” a word, a sentence, and your crazy companion fidget, sit rigid, opened mouthed…No matter how righteous you thought your position was, you feel guilty, you feel depressed.  That bastard should have kept blubbering incoherently:  That is the main reason for discussion.

Only lively movement can extend the feeling of living and hope in the slithering and volatile future.  Society worship youth for a fundamental reason:  Youth give the impression that life is resuming its course; we vanquished apathy and indifference.  It is like you water a parcel of something you saw a few days ago, and a morning exhibits a green something covering you labor. Keep moving and acting!

Qadhafi mastered the skill of “changing everything frequently, in order to changing nothing”:  Keeping the momentary Capital, the institutions, the Constitution, and technocrats were to be kept momentary realities:  They are to be frequently transformed, displaced, retrograded, reinstituted…in order not to change anything in the environment of power he feels most comfortable in.




July 2011

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