Adonis Diaries

Archive for February 15th, 2012

Syrians fodder to superpowers tag of war?

After the second joint veto in the UN by Russia and China blocking any military interventions in Syria, it has dawned on the US and the European States that Syrian is a major Red Line not to cross in this tag of war among the superpowers, which have veto powers in the UN.

The media would want you to construe that it is Iran that is being defended, and that Syria is just a first defensive line to the onslaught of the western powers in order to securing firm and definitive geopolitical and economical supremacy in the long-term… 

Wrong. Syria is the main red line not to cross! What constitute the major threats to Russia and China is the demographic influence of the Moslem Sunnis in both countries in the medium-term.  The Moslem population in Russia is fast reaching 50%, mainly in all the previous States bordering Turkey, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and China, constituting a belt of fire in its virulent activities and demanding their rightful entitlements…China has experienced in the last three years major uprising in its south-western provinces…

Iran is not a threat, but rather a source of huge potentials and opportunities for both Russia and China: Iran is a sphere of economic and trade influence for both Russia and China, and Iran can defend itself in any major military confrontations…Iran is mostly of Shiaa sect and its only religious influence is located in Azerbijan…

Syria is the main red line from the hegemony of Turkey in the region.  Russia and China are not about to let Turkey send hot waves of religious Islamic turbulence in their backyard provinces, and the best strategy is to deny Turkey any substantial political influence in Syria that would confirm the impression in the Arab World that Turkey is a strategic State to rely on for substitute political systems, manifested in Turkish-type Moslem Brotherhood structure and ideologies.

Syria is a weak State compared to Turkey and is ideal as the modern “silk trade route” to the European large market and economic potentials and opportunities: Russia and China are not about to be burdened by Turkey are the inevitable middleman for trades toward Europe…Syria will remain the preferred trade junction to Russia and China, bypassing Turkey in times of critical crisis…Syria should not be a stable and steady sphere of influence to Turkey, no matter what…Syria is to remain autonomous and “independent” from Turkey bullying pressures…

The French ambassador in Syria reported that the Syrian Moslem Brotherhood could secure only 15% of the votes: The Syrian people are mainly constituted of secular movements, and if a smooth transition of power is established soon, Syria will turn the tide in most of the Arab States that witnessed civil successful revolutions, away from the Moslem Brotherhood political ideologies…

Mind you that Russia has a well-rooted economic influence in Turkey: Turkey depends on Russia gas and Iran oil in order to export half its products to Europe.  Russia and China can contain the economic expansion of Turkey, but they are unable to restrain Turkey’s influence on the virulent Moslem Sunnis in their backyard provinces…

The western nations have finally resigned to the steadfast alliance between Russia and China on Syria’s end-game political structure: The transitional phase will be to the complete satisfaction of Russia and China. And Turkey should not contemplate any hegemony over Syria or perturb its sociopolitical structure.  Turkey is to let the new “Silk Road” passing through Syria free from interference…

The internal Syrian opposition movement should quickly grab this opportunity to vigorously engage the inevitably “fallen regime” to serious negotiation for a transitional government… The external Syrian opposition factions are just a temporary front to harassing Russia and China until the Presidential elections in France and the US. 

For the time being, the external opposition can sit tight and comfortable and enjoy the financial backing and the illusory front stage…For the time being, the external opposition can adamantly oppose any negotiation with the “regime”, but it is up to the internal opposition to settle the matter and end the bloodshed and daily horrors, and the prospect of a civil war until the presidential elections in the US and France and Russia…

So far, for the last 8 months, the Syrians have been fodder to superpower tag of war, and it is about time that they sit and find a sustainable resolution that withstand the bleak prospect of Moslem Brotherhood winning all “democratic” elections in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Morocco…

The question is: “For how long the Syrians are to be used as fodder in this ugly uneven battle?”

It appears that Turkey has fallen into the trap of the US siren, pressing it to profit from their latest advantages.  Turkey has to face the dragons of Russia and China if it insists of extending its influence in Syria.  Turkey is currently shewing on a bite too big to swallow: Turkey has to come to term with the realization that it is not “that Big” as it wishes and dream to become…

Note 1: The argument of Russia that UN resolutions for interfering in other State affairs, such as Libya, is mainly a convinient public excuse for its veto… Russia and China never considered Libya a strategic goal to waging a war for…Probably, France, England and the US paid a steep price for Russia not to oppose their involvement in Libya, and now they are supposed to return the favor…The dices are rolled: Russia and China are implicitly responsible for resolving the Syria dilemma, while the western media will keep reminding the world community of daily deaths and injuries and…

Note 2: This article is partially inspired from an article by Jihad Zein in the daily Al Nahar


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

February 2012
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