Adonis Diaries

Archive for June 13th, 2012

What Black Swan Theory has to do with Arab Spring uprising?

I have posted several articles on the Black Swan Theory and this link is in response to its application to Lebanon political/social structure https://adonis49.wordpress.com/2011/06/03/is-lebanon-political-system-immune-to-radical-non-violent-revolts-think-again/

Zaher Yahya posted on Huffington Post an article (with slight editing) that is a general “refresher” post on the topic:

“The Arab Spring has been described and associated with a variety of symbolic designations.

At times, the term describes the series of protests that have swept across the MENA (Middle East and North Africa) region. It may also indicate a person’s political position on the wide and highly polarized spectrum.

The term ‘Arab Spring’ has even been criticized by some who support the pro-democracy (or anti-regime) protests, citing this description as being Orientalist and therefore inappropriate.

The ‘Arab Spring’  (protests and upheaval), which started in December 2010, has become a brand for the region, and has motivated and catalyzed many popular protest movements around the world.

International media generally refers to the term as a unified concept, largely citing its contagious aspects as well as the key links between the countries involved.

The series of events have been called a “revolution,” “revolt,” “upheaval,” “uprising,” “awakening,” “spring,” “conspiracy,” “rioting,” “terrorist,” “hell,”  “Arab,” “Islamic,” and “foreign” are also terms intermittently used in conjunction with the previous descriptions.

We now know that the Arab Spring will not be an easy ride for the countries that it has affected, though it cannot be denied that the region has been marked by a political paradigm shift.

People in the MENA region have:

1. Denounced the long-accepted principle that unelected officials and family dynasties can cling to power for decades without consequence.

2. People have broken the long-standing barriers of fear regarding corruption and intimidation,

3. People are adjusting to the ideological diversity of their societies (though many still have much to learn on this front).

For these reasons, I tend to be optimistic about the Arab Spring despite much rhetoric about it becoming an Arab “Winter.”

Having lived through the global financial crisis that has affected people of all walks of life, I view the Arab Spring as being related to these events that shook the world economy in 2007.

Are you surprised that I find a relation may exist between these two events, both vast and far-reaching, but seemingly distinct? It may appear a tad philosophical, but the answer lies with Nassim Taleb.

Nassim Taleb (see note 2) lays the foundations  in his two books Randomness (2001) and Black Swan (2007) for his theories about uncertainty, randomness and Black Swan events. Black Swan theory describes unpredicted major-impact events that effectively appear sensible in hindsight.

Taleb theory is framed in a financial context, (many experts contend that Taleb forecasted the financial meltdown of 2007), and describes the biggest financial crisis since the Great Depression of the 1930s as one of these Black Swan moments.

Black Swan moments are characterized as being rare, high-impact and paradoxically unpredictable occurrences at the time of their occurrence. Most of us would assume black swans don’t exist, simply because we were only accustomed to seeing white swans in pictures and videos…

In the terms of the financial crisis, speculators assumed there is only one way for the markets to go; asset values would rise indefinitely with no limit to the amount of debt people could incur. It has become clear afterward that the reality on the ground was different what was written on their balance sheets and portfolios bottom lines.

The impact of the debt crisis was colossal and wide-spread that no expert envisaged at the time, with many talking about the failure of capitalism as a result. This global crash has really shattered the image and ultimate authority of the dictators of the finance sector (i.e. investment banks and hedge funds).

The Arab spring proved as difficult to predict as the financial meltdown showing economists, intelligence agencies, policy makers and analysts clueless about their own business, simply because they have never considered a Black Swan moment for the region.

The Arab Spring was triggered by what could initially have been interpreted as an isolated event, spread surprisingly fast over a vast region, and led to major and unexpected developments.

In the same way, norms of the banking system that held for generations collapsed with stunning speed and magnitude, the image and privilege of Arab dictators were shattered by popular revolts in a movement that took the world by surprise.

A Black Swan moment was never considered in the experts’ minds to apply to the Arab States: many Arab dictators held a seemingly unshakable iron grip on power and ruled undeterred for up to four decades, all while preparing their sons to someday take the reins after them, unshaken by popular and economic conditions in their country.

So the public witnessed only their moukhabarat (secret service agents) running the show, as well as the brutal backstage of the regime if you were unlucky enough to pay them a visit.

Years of tradition made this construction of power a social norm, a backbone of society so persevering it was often assumed (and reasonable at the time) to be unshakable.

And this is exactly what Nassim Taleb focuses on, exactly on the things we don’t know rather than the things we think we do. A small exception to a rule (events in the tails of the normal graph) in the future can have the ability to trigger large-scale change and dismantle norms, theories and paradigms that have been accepted for years.

The colossal impact of the Arab Spring across the region was beyond anyone’s realm of expectations – either idealistic or highly calculated.

In the world of risk management, this event appeared highly unlikely; the probability of such events spreading across such a vast region were not on the minds of political forecasters, in the same way so many bankers did not fathom their long-standing stability could be shattered so suddenly.

In hindsight, the Arab Spring may now appear to have been predictable. How could we have assumed that despite torture, censorship, abuse, brutality, corruption, unemployment and poverty, regimes would remain sustainable?

Whatever your opinion of the Arab Spring, and whatever term you choose to designate it, what started in December 2010 has proven itself a Black Swan moment of the Middle East and North Africa, one that is far from over, and whose impact will perhaps take years to fully assess.

Note 1: Michelle Ghoussoub, Blogger at Lebanon Spring, edited Yahya article.  Follow Zaher Yahya on Twitter: www.twitter.com/TheZako

Note 2: Nassim Taleb is a renowned Lebanese-American statistician, best-selling author and former Wall Street trader. His books Fooled by Randomness (2001) and Black Swan (2007) brought him to fame, with the latter described by The Sunday Times as “one of the twelve most influential books since World War II”.

Note 3: Opinion experts would like us to believe that the uprising were not expected by the US. Evidences are pointing that what was unexpected is the development, steadfastness and far-reaching movement of the Arab people to get away with their long established indignities and humiliation by usurping oligarchies.

 

Bar Code on your private parts at birth: For quick control check and accurate accounting?

This week science fiction writer Elizabeth Moon argues that everyone should be given a bar code at birth (with slight editing):

“If I were the Empress of the Universe (like Catherine of Russia?) I would insist on every individual having a unique ID permanently attached – a bar code if you will (but where bar code should be attached?)

It is as easy to implant chips to provide fast inexpensive way to identifying any individuals in the World Empire.

It would be imprinted on everyone at birth. Point the scanner at someone and there it is.

Having such a unique bar code would have many advantages:

1. In wars, soldiers could easily differentiate legitimate targets in a population of non-combatants, by simply beaming a laser light at particular parts in the body? (How can such a bar code differentiate among weapon users? Are you born with a subjective indication that you will ultimately be a combatant or a peaceful civilian?)

(I suggest bar codes be attached in the front and back of every individual, best on four sides so that the beam never misses the “collateral damaged” individual in the battle field…)

2. Simple technique could prevent mistakes in identity, mistakes that result in the deaths of innocent bystanders. Weapons systems would record the code of the use, identifying who fired which shot and leading to more accountability in the field.

3. Anonymity would be impossible as would mistaken identity making it easier to place responsibility accurately, not only in war but also in non-combat situations far from the war.”

(Do you have better alternatives for these bar codes?)

You can listen to Elizabeth discuss her idea with aerial warfare expert Elizabeth Quintana and war ethics authority David Rodin in more detail on the BBC World Service programme The Forum, where you can also download more 60-second ideas.

Organized workers and Garbage Collector Syndicates role in Yemen Uprising

In order to comprehend the popular impetus of Yemen uprising, both the foreign and local press focus on the conventional frameworks within two main social groupings:
1. The disaffected middle-class urban youth, who first occupied the streets and squares and called for an end to both corruption and the ruling regime;
2. Tribesmen and political party members, who soon joined them in solidarity and common cause.
The press expand their notes on the ongoing Houthi (north Yemen) and Southern movements whose narratives of subjugation were unevenly, and now unsuccessfully, incorporated into the broader national frameworks of the revolution.
These narratives have failed to account for the important role of organized workers in the strikes, demonstrations, and other actions of civil disobedience…
The organized workers, oil workers, garbage collectors… shared steadily in the build-up to the uprising and in the continued struggle for the social, political, and economic transformation of Yemen.
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[Honorary Ceremony for Garbage Collectors in May 2012. Photo by Atiaf Alwazir][
Honorary Ceremony for Garbage Collectors in May 2012. Photo by Atiaf Alwazir]

“I will do everything I can to grow a field in the desert” said Haidar Swaid, Member of the Garbage Collectors Syndicate

Atiaf Z. Alwazir posted on June 1, 2012:

In 2008, numerous strikes by port workers, teachers, laborers, and professors took place in cities throughout Yemen. Oil workers were among the most active in the years preceding the 2011 uprising. Strikers were able to shut down oilfields, refineries, and pipelines in March 2009April 2010, August 2009, and October 2010.

The significant cost of work stoppages succeeded in extracting periodic concessions from the Yemeni regime. These short-lived victories, coupled with the regime’s violent response to the strikes—which included the use of live ammunition against protesting workers and the mass incarceration of union members—had a chilling effect on all but the most organized of labor activism.

Yet, the industrial action of these and other workers demonstrated that collective struggle could enact positive change. This awareness of political opportunity culminated in the nationwide general strike of May 2010, which forced the regime to the negotiating table and procured conditional, if fleeting, improvements for public sector workers.

The uprising rejuvenated labor activism in early 2011 and strikes spread to paralyze State, private, and nonprofit institutions such as Yemenia Airways, Saada Radio, Al-Thawrah Hospital in Taiz, the Yemeni Air Force, the Yemen Bank of Reconstruction and Development, the Central Organization of Control and Audit, and the Red Crescent Society in Sana’a.

Generally, strikers have demanded higher wages, better working conditions, general reforms, and the removal of the corrupt heads of these institutions.

These demonstrations and strikes continue to sweep Yemeni cities.

In May 2012 alone, work stoppages by the seaport workers of DP World were held in the cities of Sana’a, Taiz, Hodeida, Saada and Aden,  have paralyzed the port. DP World, a Dubai-based state-owned company that was awarded the contract to run the seaport in 2008, is being accused of deliberate mismanagement in order to drive ocean-bound commerce to the Emirate.

In Sana’a, employees at the Ministry of Youth and Sports have been protesting daily against corruption in the ministry and demanding the removal of the minister.

A Story of Struggle and Success

The most visible and widespread labor struggle during the uprising has been that of the garbage collectors, who managed to organize and sustain an on-and-off long nationwide strike, which lasted up to three months in certain cities.

Piles of red, blue, green, and yellow plastic trash bags spilled into the streets throughout Yemen, filling the cities with the unbearable stench of filth and decay. Significantly, the workers framed their grievances in terms of both economic exploitation and social inequality.

The majority of sanitation workers belong to an ostracized social group which self-identifies as al-muhammashin (the marginalized), but is more commonly and derogatorily known as al-akhdam (the servants).

As their struggle was integrated into broader national narratives of suffering, the gross inequities of their situation became more commonly recognized and sympathized with, in spite of continued, and considerable, discrimination.

This protest was not the first of its kind. Garbage collectors have gone on strike five times since 1993 to demand higher wages. While they managed to secure wage increases from $0.93 to $3.80 per day, they have also incurred the heavy cost of imprisonment of labor union members for weeks and sometimes months.

This increase in wages technically puts them above the poverty line, but they continue to work under extremely insecure and harsh conditions with the lowest wages for public sector employees.

Garbage collectors have an exceptional employment status. They report to State officials within the Office of Sanitation and Labor, but they have neither employment contracts nor monthly salaries. Instead, they work through daily contracts, which allows the State to avoid paying them employee benefits.

Haidar Swaid, a member of the garbage collectors union, listed the conditions of those contracts to include:

1.  “No vacation days, no holidays, no social or medical insurance,

2. The years of work do not count toward promotion.

3. They receive no pay raises or end of year bonuses: “A man who has worked eighteen years is like the man who started work yesterday”.

4. Women are not entitled to maternity leave. They find themselves forced to work while pregnant and caring for infants. Since the state also fails to respect labor laws, those same infants are likely to find themselves employed as street cleaners before they reach their teenage years.

Sexual harassment and rape of female street cleaners is also a common occurrence, as the public visibility and low social prestige of the work adds to their vulnerability.

This work-place insecurity is compounded by the social discrimination that the marginalized face. Housing is particularly difficult to secure, with few willing to rent to them.

As a result, the majority of garbage collectors and street cleaners find themselves living in impoverished slum areas that lack basic services, including sewage, water, and electricity.

Former President Saleh had promised garbage collectors, as with other public sector employees, land for housing, but that promise has yet to be fulfilled.

Mohammed Al-Githry, head of the Yemeni Confederation of Labor Unions, asked: “Are Garbage collectors are not less important than the soldiers who give their lives? Garbage collectors give their souls. They have not been greedy with their country, why has their country been greedy with them?” Equal Rights for All Workers

Since March 2012, the labor strikes have aimed to pressure the new transitional government to grant garbage workers fulltime employment contracts with benefits and better work conditions.

In response, Prime Minister Mohammed Basindawa passed a decree on April 12, 2012 that granted fulltime employment rights, health benefits, and vacation days to garbage collectors.

Members of the marginalized community attribute this success to labor union organizing. A member of the union, in turn, attributes this success to “garbage” itself.

Haidar Swaid said: “A strike that makes garbage fill the country is the best weapon we have.”

The decree is a positive step toward achieving employment equality and social justice. It is also an encouraging move in the ongoing fight against corruption, since managers will now have a harder time issuing fake temporary contracts that they can cash in themselves.

Legal reform alone cannot effect real change. As with many laws in Yemen, implementation and accountability are often lacking.

The previous regime had already passed Laws 292 and 517 in April 2008, both of which decreed fulltime employment and benefits for garbage collectors. Unfortunately, these laws were never implemented.

Yet, Basindawa’s latest decree just might prove to be the exception to the rule. There are some promising signs, such as the ministerial committee that has been created to initiate and oversee the implementation process. The committee is now conducting surveys and collecting information on garbage collectors and uploading information into a central database in preparation for the implementation phase.

Many are complaining about the unnecessary length of this process.

Mohammed Al-Marzooqi, head of the garbage collectors syndicate, said: “We ask the ministerial committee to expedite the process of implementation,”

According to a government official, the delay is due to the time it takes to gather and verify information on the 20,000 workers nationwide and then to provide these workers with identification cards.

State-Worker Relations

While the process is taking longer than expected, state officials have recognized the need to show appreciation to their diligent workers. For the first time in Sana’a’s history, state officials publicly acknowledged the garbage collectors in an official ceremony.

On Saturday, 12 May 2012, the Sana’a local council, the Office of Sanitation and Labor, and the labor union organized the first celebration honoring thirty “cleaning soldiers.” The celebration included reciting poems and playing music. Some workers received honorary certificates for the “best employees of the year,” while others were given bonuses for Labor Day.

In a symbolic show of appreciation and encouragement in mid-April 2012, state officials, including the Prime Minister and the Minister of Human Rights, went to the streets with brooms to begin a citizen cleaning campaign.

Mohammed Ali, a thirty-two-year old garbage collector, said: “This was a good gesture, I had never seen any state official hold a broom on television before. The signs of our successful strike have started to show.”

Another assuring sign is the inclusion of representatives from the marginalized community—who make up the majority of garbage collectors—in the National Dialogue, set up under the post-uprising transition plan to accommodate voices from different segments of the population.

The marginalized are prepared to participate in the process and have called on their fellow citizens to make the fight against social discrimination a prominent issue on the agenda of the transitional government by encouraging Yemeni legislature to adopt laws criminalizing discrimination and implementing equal rights for workers.

The struggle continues

Garbage collectors have finally been able to get through to Yemeni citizens and move public opinion toward their struggle. Their plight has also attracted the attention of the media as state and nonprofit institutions have started to sponsor numerous projects to help the marginalized community.

Yet, skepticism still looms in the minds of many.

Yahya Al-Qahm, a union member, said: “We heard a lot of talk by government and NGOs about new housing projects and humanitarian aid for the marginalized community. But this is all just talk, and exploitation of our situation. We have not seen the implementation.”

Labor activists have historically played an important role in the struggle for a more just Yemeni society, often mobilizing despite the guarantee of violent repression. While campaigns for worker rights, specifically of garbage collectors, have now become a popular media topic, they often lack substantive popular and institutional support.

It is important that community and union leaders, citizen advocates, and rights groups not be seduced by the media hype. Rather, they must follow through on the implementation of the numerous promises made by the government, continue to mobilize for equal rights for all workers, and demand the criminalization of discrimination and racism.

Most importantly, as the country moves forward through this transformative period, Yemenis must seize the opportunity to establish new political alliances and coalitions and consolidate the hard-won rights and freedoms to which the 2011 uprising gave birth.


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

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