Adonis Diaries

You know it is a Civil War when…

1. When every town an d village forms its local militia to control entrance and exit of its inhabitants

2. When Every religious sect (Christians and Moslems) has its clerics split between supporting insurgents and the regime. For example, a Christian sect in a town is supporting the government while another town is allied to the insurgents…and the same behavior goes in towns with Moslem sects…

3. When the Sunni sec in Syria have clerics divided on which side to support. And the Christian Orthodox is divided with which power to side with. And the Maronite Christian sect divided on the group to support. And the Alawi sect divided on the party to support…

So far, the Syrian regime managed to induce in towns with Christian majority to constituting “Shabbiha” Christian militia in order to control the areas dominated by Christians…and Sunny towns to constitute “shabbiha sunny militia” to function as controlling force and advanced posts to the army of the regime…The Syrian regime is de-facto inducing a climate of civil war because it cannot rely on the total loyalty of its army and the Presidential Guards have been overwhelmed with the many centers of uprising in almost every province…

The cities or towns that failed to organize under local controlled militia allied to the regime were invaded and taken control of by the insurgents, mostly the radical salafist Sunni factions…

All the other internal revolutions or upheavals, which were not the result of splitting within religious sects, can be classified as social disobedience, religious war, or mass civil disobedience…

All European States suffered many, recurring and major religious wars. In most cases, they are cohesive minority religious sects against the vast majority sect supporting the monarchies.

A few and rare cases are cohesive majority sect revolting against a minority monarch such as the puritanical protestant civil disobedience of Cromwell against the Catholic clerics supporting the monarch Charles I…

In the 16th century, the French protestants (the Huguenots) waged a major civil disobedience against the Catholic clerics allied with the monarchy…

The French revolution was against the Catholic clerics entirely shouldering the monarch Louis 16…

The American internal war (1860-64) was between a federal central government refusing the right of any State or union of states to demand independence from the central dominance.  Slavery was not a factor, no matter how often historians are trying to give a human right face to this war

The Russian revolution was against the orthodox clerics entirely sustaining the absolute monarch Nicholas II…

There are two major characteristics that represent these mass disobedience movements:

1. They were all internal mass civil disobedience uprising of cohesive and united religious sects against the sect shouldering and sharing in the power of the absolute monarchs…

2.  The internal wars ended in clear-cut victory for the regime or the insurgents, at least for a long period, before another major round of upheavals.

3. These internal social disobedience, ending with a clear vanquisher of one party, point to a potential future for a developed nation…

4. Internal wars that ended with no victors are the trade-mark of underdeveloped nations, regardless of how vast or how populous they are

Lebanon civil war (1975-91) started as a civil disobedience and reverted to a civil war within 6 months.

The foreign powers supported religious sects for political and military supremacy over the entire sect, thus fomenting armed internal struggle within each sect. Most of the war in Lebanon was mainly armed struggle within each sect in order to represent and talk in the name of the entire sect.

The Christian Maronite sect was the major loser in this civil war, not because it has been reduced to a minority sect for decades, but mainly because it was still the only sect militarily battling within, while the other sects Moslem Sunni and Moslem Shia had resolved their political differences…

While the Lebanese deputies were assembled in Taef (Saudi Arabia) in order to reform the Constitution, the Maronites were undergoing the worst armed struggle for political dominion of the sect.

All indicates that another civil war is being fomented in Lebanon. Why? Every religious sect is divided on its political leaders  to represent their privileges and conformist “rights”…More on that topic in the next post…

Note: I am not a religious person by any criteria and I think that all religions are based on myths and thrive on power struggle…However, I cannot deny evidences, facts, and trends in describing what start a civil war and how it unfolds…