Adonis Diaries

Do you trust a physician decision in emergency rooms: Think again on choice decision strategies

Posted on: July 24, 2012

Choice decision strategy: Analytic reasoning or split-second instinct decision?

For simple short-term and non-life threatening decision choices, thinking hard on the few variables affecting the decision does generate the best satisfactory choice.

For the longer-term and very important decisions, such as profession to pursue, mate,…anything that would affect you for most of your life…thinking hard on the interactions of the complex varieties of factors is necessary as a first stage, but you need to take a long break before any decision, and let your unconscious mind select for you.  

You have got to trust your unconscious mind to decide for you since the Big Brain knows your real nature, your deeper inner need, and is better than sophisticated analytic methods for important matters that affect you

Ap Dijksterhuis, a psychologist at the Univ. of Amsterdam, conducted controlled experiments and field experiments on choice decisions methods.  For example, shoppers for simple kitchen utensils and appliances, those who considered the choices from different angles and thought hard on all the pros and cons, were very satisfied with their choices weeks later. Those who relied on instinct ended up very dissatisfied.

Shoppers for furniture and remodeling their homes, a complex problem, were most satisfied when they allowed their “instinct” to prevail at the end of the day.

This decision-making system is valid in politics, managerial jobs…It can be generalized to many facet of life decisions.

Another example. Physicians in emergency rooms rely on their “tested” initial instinct for diagnosing patients with chest pains. Statistics have shown that physician instincts were more often than not faulty and not that good after all. What could be the alternative?

How to re-educate the instinct of physicians?

Analyzing reams of data, Lee Goldman used complex computer models to identify a few key factors and symptoms that seemed to be the most significant in the diagnostic  of chest pain.  Once the physicians were re-educated and aware of the new story the data were telling them, the initial instinct decision of physicians were vastly improved.

That is what artificial intelligence programs are meant to provide: Re-educating how we make “split-second decision”, after we understand thoroughly the problem.

Suppose you are a teacher, how would you weight the results of standardized tests and how much do you weight your judgment about the student’s motivation, attitude, and prospects?

Suppose you are a coach for athletes. How much would you weight the performance scores and how much would you let your judgment on the athlete motivation, youth, attitudes, listening skills, learning zeal…retain an athlete?

Every organization, institution, and decision-makers need to have a proper combination of analytic reasoning and data processing skills for models and split-second decision procedures.

Decisions not based first on understanding the trend of real data can be devastating.  And relying solely on data analysis would lead to many erroneous decisions…

Comprehensive knowledge, practice, experience…then allowing instinct to decide is “The power of thinking without thinking

Note 1: Post inspired from a chapter in “Blink” by Malcolm Gladwell

Note 2: https://adonis49.wordpress.com/2009/12/11/efficiency-has-limits-within-cultural-bias/

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