Adonis Diaries

Has Erdogan PM of Turkey lost it? Ill-health, internal troubles, increased external alienation…

Posted on: September 20, 2012

Has Erdogan of Turkey lost it? Ill-health, internal troubles, increased external alienation…

Erdogan is ruling Turkey since 2002, backed by his Moslem Brotherhood “Justice and development” Party.  Any ruler in power for 10 years is bound to become a de facto dictator, no longer in touch with the needs of his people, the little people who want earthly kinds of happiness: Food, health, security, equality in entitled rights and responsiblities…

All the “democratic” gimmicks of fair elections cannot obscure the smokescreen tactics: Erdogan has been trying to convince the world community that Turkey is on the proper path to peaceful democratic transition of power…

Erdogan has lost it:

1. He is in terrible ill-health. He refrained from appearing in public for over 6 months and the very few new pictures of him are devoid of good health…

2. Instead of focusing his attention at resolving the Kurdish problem, integrating the kurds are equal citizens with fair treatment…Erdogan is boasting of having killed 500 Kurdish insurgents this month alone…and vowing to eradicate thousands of them by military operations…

3. The Kurds counter-reactions are as violent…cars have been exploding in large cities in Turkey and in the Capital Istanbul…and the military operations are increasing and the insurgents are learning to cope and return to the offensive…

Mind you that the internal instabilities in Turkey are much prior to the Syrian uprising. Most probably, Erdogan figured out that turning against the Syrian regime might unite the Turkish “Nation” against a fictional enemy…and relieve him from his internal pressures and delaying their resolutions…

Syria has turned down the proposal of Erdogan to help him militarily to crush the Kurdish unrest on the borders…

4. Turkey has antagonized many surrounding States, such as Iran, Iraq, and the States around the Black Sea. The previous strategy of making peace with all the surrounding States has gone to pieces. Why? The Turkish regime is turning authoritarian and nationalist chauvinist, and adopting the Attaturk slogan “Turkey is for the Turks”

5. Erdogan foreign minister convinced him to “get engaged in Syria and reflect later…”. Wrong and deadly judgment: Syria and Turkey have thousands of years of emmeshed history and common communities…(See note). The Western nations refrained from taking seriously Turkey’s direct and vast strategic plans on the Syrian problems…

6. So far, there are over 80,000 Syrian refugees in Turkey, and preparations are suggesting that Turkey is expecting the number to increase to 130,000 very shortly. The political immersion in Syria’s affairs has dwindled the support for the Turkish Moslem Brotherhood Party: The Turkish citizens are very apprehensive of the massive infiltration of foreign militias and radical Islamists entering Turkey, supposedly to fight in Syria, but most of them trying to find refuge in Turkey.

The Arab States are refusing to let the former jihadists return home, and prefer to dispatch them to Hot Spots, regions specifically created to keep the jihadists on the move and away from their home States…

7. Erdogan and the President Abdullah Gul are in the process of a long internal infighting: Erdogan dismissed and retired many high officers in the army who were counted on the President and taking political engagements not to the satisfaction of Gul…

8. There is this trend of transforming Turkey into another Pakistan, very unstable, fragile, and radical, and the reactions of Erdogan are encouraging this political instability…The consequences of the long difficulties and instability in Afghanistan has affected the political/social structure in Pakistan. 

The Syrian instability is affecting the Turkish political/social structure and radicalizing the ‘minorities” in Turkey, especially the Kurds and the Alawits, both them forming at least 45% of the total population.

The Alawit Moslem sect, forming 15% of Syria population and about 20% in Turkey, is a mixture of Shia and Sufi interpretation of Islam. This sect were persecuted for a thousand years by the dominant Sunni Caliphat and they took refuge in high mountain chains. The Ottoman military formation the Inkishariyat was suppressed by the Sultan in 1826 and the disbanded soldiers assembled in secret sects, associating with the Alawit secret organizations and spreading in the Balkan region…

Note 1: Post partially inspired from an article by Jihad Zein in the daily Al Nahar.

Note 2: The “Turks” are nomadic tribes from current Turkmenistan and neighboring central Asia States who united and defeated the Byzantium army around 1080 and established the Seljuk dynasty.

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September 2012

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