Archive for December 6th, 2012
How Do Ceasefires End? Who Re-ignites Violence? Systematic Israeli pattern?
Posted on: December 6, 2012
How Do Ceasefires End? Who Re-igniting Violence?
If you followed the current timeline of how the new round of bombs, shells, and missiles showering on Gaza started and evolved (see link in note 1), you’ll appreciate the study done by Nancy Kanwisher in 2009, the exact systemic pattern of apartheid Israel.
Following the previous cease fire in Gaza in 2009, many wondered “How did the recent ceasefire unravel?”
The mainstream media in the US and Israel places the blame squarely on Hamas, (as is their habit).
The media insisted that “massive barrage of Palestinian rockets were fired into Israel in November and December of 2009″
(hand made rockets that fizzled before landing at the time), and ending this rocket fire is the stated goal of the current Israeli invasion of Gaza.
Nancy Kanwisher, Johannes Haushofer, & Anat Biletzki published in the HuffPost on Jan. 6, 2009 “Reigniting Violence: How Do Ceasefires End?“
“As Israel and Palestine suffer a hideous new spasm of terror, misery, and mayhem, it is important to ask how this situation came about. Perhaps an understanding of recent events will afford lessons for the future.
The US media account leaves out crucial facts about the cease fire:
First, and most importantly, the ceasefire was remarkably effective: after it began in June 2008, the rate of rocket and mortar fire from Gaza dropped to almost zero, and stayed there for four straight months (see Figure 1, from a fact sheet produced by the Israeli consulate in NYC).
So much for the widespread view, exemplified in yesterday’s New York Times editorial that: “There is little chance of restraining Hamas without dealing with its patrons in Syria and Iran.” Instead, the data shows clearly that Hamas can indeed control the violence if it so chooses, and sometimes it does, for long periods of time.
Second, and just as important, what happened to end this striking period of peace?
On November 4th, Israel killed a Palestinian, an event that was followed by a volley of mortars fired from Gaza. Immediately after that, an Israeli air strike killed 6 more Palestinians. Then a massive barrage of rockets was unleashed, leading to the end of the ceasefire.
Figure 1. Number of Palestinian rockets fired in each month of 2008 (adapted from The Israeli consulate in NYC [pdf])
Thus the latest ceasefire ended when Israel first killed Palestinians, and Palestinians retaliated by firing rockets into Israel.
However, before attempting to glean lessons from this event, we need to know if this case is atypical, or if it reflects a systematic pattern.
We decided to tally the data to find out.
We analyzed the entire timeline of killings of Palestinians by Israelis, and killings of Israelis by Palestinians, in the Second Intifada (mass disobedience), based on the data from the widely-respected Israeli Human Rights group B’Tselem (including all the data from September 2000 to October 2008).
We defined “conflict pauses” as periods of one or more days when no one is killed on either side, and we asked which side kills first after conflict pauses of different duration.
As shown in Figure 2, this analysis shows that it is overwhelmingly Israel that kills first after a pause in the conflict: 79% of all conflict pauses were interrupted when Israel killed a Palestinian, while only 8% were interrupted by Palestinian attacks (the remaining 13% were interrupted by both sides on the same day).
In addition, we found that this pattern — in which Israel is more likely than Palestine to kill first after a conflict pause — becomes more pronounced for longer conflict pauses.
Indeed, of the 25 periods of nonviolence lasting longer than a week, Israel unilaterally interrupted 24 of the periods (96% of the times), and it unilaterally interrupted 100% of the 14 periods of nonviolence lasting longer than 9 days.
Figure 2. For conflict pauses of different durations (i.e., periods of time when no one is killed on either side), we show here the percentage of times from the Second Intifada in which Israelis ended the period of nonviolence by killing one or more Palestinians (black), the percentage of times that Palestinians ended the period of nonviolence by killing Israelis (grey), and the percentage of times that both sides killed on the same day (white).
Virtually all periods of nonviolence lasting more than a week were ended when the Israelis killed Palestinians first. We include here the data from all pause duration that actually occurred.
Thus, a systematic pattern does exist: it is overwhelmingly Israel, not Palestine, that kills first following a lull. Indeed, it is virtually always Israel that kills first after a lull lasting more than a week.
The lessons from these data are clear:
First, Hamas can indeed control the rockets, when it is in their interest. The data shows that ceasefires can work, reducing the violence to nearly zero for months at a time.
Second, if Israel wants to reduce rocket fire from Gaza, it should cherish and preserve the peace when it starts to break out, not be the first to kill.
Note 1: For timeline of this year preemptive war on Gaza….https://adonis49.wordpress.com/2012/11/18/a-timeline-on-gaza-tragedy-from-imeu-and-the-electronic-intifada/
Note 2: For a detailed account of the breakdown of the ceasefire and the precise numbers of rockets fired in November from the point of view of the Israeli military, see http://www.terrorism-info.org.il/malam_multimedia/English/eng_n/html/hamas_e011.htm
A few of the “45 Most powerful pictures” in BuzzFeed for 2012
1. A boy in Nepal being evicted from his home
A boy cries as he holds his sister in his lap after a confrontation with squatters and police personnel in Kathmandu, Nepal.
2. A couple discovering their family records survived Hurricane Sandy
Rosemary McDermott and her husband opened a safe containing a family genealogy in the Breezy Point section of Queens.
They salvaged the safe from the basement of Rosemary’s mother’s home after Superstorm Sandy.
3. Mars
Thanks to Curiosity, this is one of the clearest images of Mars ever taken.
4. Felix Baumgartner’s 24-mile free-fall from space
5. A man being pepper-sprayed directly in the face
Israeli border police officers use pepper spray as they detain an injured Palestinian protester during clashes on Land Day in March.
Security forces fired rubber bullets, tear gas, and stun grenades to break up groups of Palestinian stone-throwers as annual Land Day rallies turned violent.
A Tibetan exile runs through a street during a protest against the upcoming visit of Chinese President Hu Jintao.
7. A Bolivian woman taking on a group of riot police
Thousands of people with crutches and in wheelchairs protested against the government of Bolivia in February. They were protesting what they believe to be an inadequate welfare system.
8. The Waldo Canyon fire
The Waldo Canyon fire burns an entire neighborhood near the foothills of Colorado Springs, Colorado.
In June, Colorado endured nearly a week of 100-plus-degree days and low humidity, creating a devastating formula for volatile wildfires across the state.
9. Outside the Century 16 movie theater in Aurora, Colorado
Storm clouds gather above a memorial for the victims in the shooting across the street from the Century 16 movie theater in Aurora, Colorado, in July.
10. Anti-gay hate crimes in Ukraine
Unidentified people beat Svyatoslav Sheremet, head of Gay-Forum of Ukraine, in May.
Sheremet was attacked after meeting with members of the media to inform them that a scheduled gay parade was canceled due to threats of violence from neo-Nazis and other hate groups.
The attackers ran off when they realized members of the media were documenting the attack.
11. People who lost family members during the uprising in Egypt react to Hosni Mubarak’s prison sentence
Relatives of people who died during Egypt’s revolution react after a court sentenced President Hosni Mubarak to life in prison in June.
12. Kicking riot police in Greece
A man in Greece kicks riot police back.
13. Family being forced to go back to Myanmar
Mohammad Rafique, a Rohingya Muslim from Myanmar, begs a Bangladeshi coast guard official not to send his family back to Myanmar.
14. Nik Wallenda tightroping over Niagara Falls
Nik Wallenda tightroped over Niagara Falls on a 2-inch-wide wire. He’s the first person to ever cross directly over the falls from the U.S. into Canada.
15. The father saving his daughter’s life in Syria
A Syrian man carries his wounded daughter outside a hospital in the northern city of Aleppo in September. Syrian troops shelled several districts in Aleppo and clashed with rebels.
16. Manhattan without lights
Before and after shots of Manhattan after Hurricane Sandy. Nearly 200,000 people lost power in downtown Manhattan for about a week.
17. A little Palestinian girl vs. an Israeli soldier
A Palestinian girl tries to punch an Israeli soldier during a protest against the expansion of the nearby Jewish settlement of Halamish.
18. The Space Shuttle Enterprise flying above New York City
19. The wedding held during a monsoon in Manila
Ramoncito Campo kisses his wife Hernelie Ruazol Campo on a flooded street during a southwest monsoon that battered Manila, Philippines, in August.
The newlywed couple pushed through with their scheduled wedding despite severe flooding that inundated wide areas of the capital and nine nearby provinces.
Adonis Diaries 