Adonis Diaries

Archive for May 13th, 2014

“Allah has nothing to do” with “Arabs” crisis, and neither is the Koran

First, Allah has nothing to do with the current crisis and uprising in the Arab Spring mass disobedience movements.

Second, the Koran has nothing to do with the extremist and salafist Islamic factions  and movements. (To be developed in the follow up article)

There are basic factors that drive progress in societies and the recurring violent crisis resulting from changes in the anthropological shift.

1. The rate of literacy (learning to read and write) and what is called alphabetization of society is the prime factor in the drive for change. Once the rate has reached 50% among the population, a mass revolution is not far from emerging against the status quo

Once that many people can read tracts, pamphlet and daily papers in their own language, it becomes inevitable to start demanding reforms.

That’s what happened in 17th century England, 18th France and 20th century Russia.

That’s what happened in Iran, a decade before the Islamic revolution.

That’s what happened in Tunisia and Egypt.

Mind you that the Near Eastern societies or Levant (of Turkey, Syria, Lebanon and Palestine) had exceeded the 50% literacy rate in the 30’s, particularly in the cities,and witnessed frequent mass disobedience movements against the mandated powers of France and England and against the feudal classes.

Mind you also that the First Palestinian Intifada of 1935 was started because England refused any election, not even on the municipal level, on the pretext that the Jews constituted less than 20% of the population.

This mass disobedience lasted 3 years and England was forced to dispatch 100,000 troops to quell this virulent and steadfast revolution. As WWII was about to start, and in order not to bog down in Palestine such a large number of troops, England began to train Zionist Jews in Palestine on acts of terrorism and sabotage of bridges and communication lines.

It is in 1938 that Ben Gurion started his extensive and detailed plan of mass terror activities against the Palestinians once Israel declares its Independence. The plan was carried out in its minute details, especially evacuating the Palestinians from cities and villages bordering the shore line to deny the Palestinians any support from the sea.

2. The second factor is the rate of fecundity. If the rate is way above 3 per family, it is an indication that the majority of females in a society is still illiterate. The women play the role of “manufacturing” kids in high numbers so that 50% of them might survive the age of 5.  That was the trend in almost every society around the world in the 19th century.

Once the fecundity rate drops to 2, women and mothers are seeking higher quality of life to their offspring and investing in their education and well-being.

The qualitative shift to higher concern for offspring is correlated with the lower quantitative level of fecundity.

Mind you that a drop under 2 means that the society is losing hope in a better future for their offspring and the demographics starts its aging process.

For example, the median age in Tunisia is 29, in Egypt 24, in France 40 and in Germany 44.  You should not expect an older median population to take to the street and demonstrate with the same endurance and zeal as with the younger population.

I conjecture that the atrocious WWI was the result of high illiteracy rate among women in the rural areas and the peasants constituted a large reserve of illiterate soldiers who were easily enrolled in the army under fraudulent “facts” and evidences.

3. The third factor is an anthropological substrate: What were the family values, particularly the inheritance system between the genders, the trend to considering sons and daughter at a par in mental capability, responsibility and competence.

4. An important characteristics in the anthropological structure is the rate of endogamous marriages: marriages among close relatives and cousins. This characteristic bolster the patrilinear structure where the status of a family is linked to the status of the father.

In these kinds of community, the tribal and clannish bonding override the other community benefits and concerns.

In Tunisia and Egypt, endogamous marriages rate were around 35%, which restrained the acceleration of the upheavals. This high rate is prevalent in almost every Arabic Islamic State.

In Egypt, there is a steady decline of endogamous marriages and reaching about 25%.

In the 20th century, the modern western and industrialized societies enacted laws to encourage exogamy and forced the churches to adopt these civil laws that prohibit marriages to the second and third degrees in family close relationship.

5. The fifth factor is inevitably the lack of work opportunities for the youth who got university degrees and are left to loaf around. The high unemployment rate in the Arabic States is an endemic problem.

Progress is measured by the kinds of jobs that motivate people to work. And the right to work is primordial in the youth mind in order to plan out their future and viability of remaining in their homeland.

Question: Are Saudi Arabia, the Gulf Emirate States and the other two monarchies of Morocco and Jordan about to witness any mass upheavals?

Saudi Arabia and the Gulf Emirates rely on oil revenues: The citizens don’t pay taxes and “No taxes, no representation” 

The Gulf Emirates, as is the case of Libya, are scarcely populated and the oil revenues can take care of allowing stipends to be distributed to the “citizen/chattel”.

What happened in Libya was the result of the people in the eastern part (Benghazi) being punished by Gadhafi and totally ignored for 2 decades. Nothing has changed in Libya: the citizens are demanding oil stipend money to be distributed “equitably”

Saudi Arabia  is in deep trouble, a reserve of fanatic extremist neglected population who were unleashed for over 3 decades in foreign Islamic lands, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Yemen, Syria…

Oil stipend is lavishly spent on the 5,000 members of the Royal extended family and the rate of unemployment and barely surviving people are extremely high.

Morocco will end up a Constitutional monarchy, unless civil war breaks out since the Al Qaeda-type followers are spreading like wild fire in northern Africa

Jordan has always been backed by foreign powers and can easily be put on fire if this monarchy fails to compromise on a Constitutional monarchy.

Note 1: The first part was inspired by the interview of Daniel Schneidermann with Emmanuel Todd on Arret sur images and published in a book: “Allah has nothing to do“, and “Le rendez-vous des civilizations” (The meeting of civilizations) by Todd and Youssef Courbage

Note 2: Historian Emmanuel Le Roy-Ladurie analyses the trend using long-term statistical dada

Inexpressible: Bovine TB tested positive and stock bull Ernie to be shot

Three days ago a slaughter man came to my farm to shoot Ernie, our stock bull, and 3 other cattle that had tested positive for bovine TB.

They had to be killed on farm because they’d been given worming medication which meant they couldn’t be taken to a slaughterhouse.

I invited the NFU to come down and film what was one of the most distressing experiences of my farming life.

That night I started trying to put my thoughts into words for a blog post. This is as far as I got.

I woke up with a feeling of dread in my stomach again….

I don’t have facilities for slaughtering my own animals on the farm: so an unbearable time was spent waiting for the first – a beautiful young heifer – to get into the correct position.

I can’t watch….the BANG, when it finally comes, is piercing and final.

The other cows know exactly what has happened and what is about to happen.

What follows next is the undignified winching of the carcass up the ramp of the trailer leaving a trail of blood and shit in its wake.

Next is Hugo.

With her huge doe-like eyes she looks at me and knows. The cow with the baby calf is becoming fractious and aggressive. She can smell blood and cordite. As she is becoming so wild, she is shot with a single bullet from a rifle. A perfect shot finally breaking the tension.

I feel sick to the bottom of my stomach and I can hardly make my legs take me to Ernie. The gentle giant. Loved by all.

Ernie trusts me and I know I am about to betray that trust. I put his barley down for his usual feed. But this is not usual.

The marksman steps up and the bang echoes out. The finality is over-bearing. I have to leave.

Ernie the Bull with Tess , our daughters horse

The only consolation (as we always have to find a positive?) is the instant finality of it all. My animals are always well cared for and a quick and respectful death is what I ask for.

I am comforted by numerous messages from friends who loved Ernie. One dear friend even bought us an apple tree to plant in his memory. And my daughter sent a picture of Ernie and Tess, her horse, sharing some hay a couple of winters ago.

Looking back at what I wrote a couple of days earlier, I realise it’s a disjointed stream of thoughts and emotions.

I find it difficult to read over again as I was in this position two years ago and, at that time, there was a solution on the horizon.

And you complain your neighbor is an immigrant?

Dave Lim shared Howard Farran DDS, MBA‘s photo. this May 10, 2014
Your car is German. Your vodka is Russian. Your pizza is Italian. Your kebab is Turkish. Your democracy is Greek. Your coffee is Brazilian. Your movies are American. Your tea is Tamil. Your shirt is Indian. Your oil is Saudi Arabian. Your electronics are Chinese. Your numbers Arabic, your letters Latin. And you complain that your neighbor is an immigrant? Pull yourself together.
Your tea is Tamil. Your shirt is Indian. Your oil is Saudi Arabian. Your electronics are Chinese. Your numbers Arabic, your letters Latin.
And you complain that your neighbor is an immigrant?
Pull yourself together.

Engagement of Clooney and Amal Alamuddin: Who has gone crazy again?


 Lebanon Goes Crazy For Clooney-Alamuddin Engagement
(Image via Arabia Weddings)

This past week it was announced that Beirut-born Lebanese lawyer Amal Alamuddin is set to be married to Hollywood heartthrob and serial romancer George Clooney.

Alamuddin now holds British citizenship and is an attorney specializing in international law and human rights.

KAT STOEFFEL posted this April 29, 2014

What Is This Goddess Doing With George Clooney?

George Clooney is engaged to girlfriend Amal Alamuddin, and news outlets are scrambling to explain how the Lebanese-British human rights lawyer managed to “snag” and “tame” America’s most prominent commitment-phobe — a man who, we are now reminded, elected not to wed a professional wrestler, a Dancing with the Stars competitor, and a Las Vegas cocktail waitress.

Perhaps what we should really be asking is: How did Clooney manage to snag her?

Alamuddin is 36 and speaks French and Arabic, and her English is probably very posh, because she studied at Oxford and NYU Law. Clooney, 52, did a silly voice in O Brother, Where Art Thou?

Alamuddin was named the hottest barrister in London in 2013; Clooney hasn’t been the  “Sexiest Man Alive” since 2006.

Alamuddin looks a glamorous hybrid of Anne Hathaway and Huma Abedin, even when her hair is wet.

Even when she’s super embarrassed.

She has the regal grace of Carolyn Bessette but possibly with even better style?

Not to mention impeccable brow game.

The daughter of the Diane Sawyer of Lebanon, Alamuddin served as an advisor to Kofi Annan on Syria.

At leading human rights firm Doughty Street Chambers, her clients include former Libyan intelligence chief Abdullah Al Senussi, former Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko, Julian Assange, and the state of Cambodia.

Clooney won a prize for playing a CIA operative in the Middle East in a movie.

The funny part is that the Lebanese Druze warlord Walid Jumblatt is offering to throw the couple a party and expressing hope they would set an example of openness for the Druze community.

Probably, Walid has set his eyes on Amal. Be warned Clooney and stay away from this morass: You might end up with a cut penis

The Daily Star published this May 12, 2014

BEIRUT: Progressive Socialist Party leader MP Walid Jumblatt welcomed George Clooney’s engagement to Lebanese-British lawyer Amal Alamuddin, offering to throw the couple a party and expressing hope they would set an example of openness for the Druze community.

Jumblatt, the political leader of the Druze community in Lebanon, described the impending nuptials as “rare good news” in an e-mail to Journalist Lee Smith, according to an article in The Weekly Standard.

“Tell me when George Clooney will be coming to Lebanon so I can greet him in Moukhtara,” he wrote, referring to his ancestral home in the Chouf mountains. “I will bring a delegation of Druze sheikhs.”

“As for Amal Alamuddin, well, she is lucky,” he added. (In what way Amal is that lucky? Was that Maktoub?)

Alamuddin has become a source of pride and fascination in her home country after news broke of her engagement to avowed bachelor Clooney.

In his article, Smith inquired whether Clooney is “good for the Druze,” the official sect of Alamuddin’s father and a tight-knit community that follows a secretive off-shoot of Islam.

Due to religious restrictions, Druze are discouraged from marrying outside the faith. Last year, the family of a Druze woman who eloped with a Sunni man beat the man and cut off his penis, sparking widespread condemnation, including from the PSP.

Jumblatt criticized the insularity of his community and said he hoped that the new couple would spark a dialogue about the future of the sect.

“It would be useful after the occurrence of the barbaric act,” he wrote, in reference to the attack, “for the Druze community to hold an internal dialogue over the future of the sect. … Where will the culture of rejecting the other that breeds intolerance and hate lead? Does that not create a threat to the future?”.

Read more:
(The Daily Star :: Lebanon News ::




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