Adonis Diaries

Do you drool when dinner clock chime? And beginner’s good luck

Posted on: October 16, 2014

Do you drool when dinner clock chime?

The Ivan Pavlov  reaction

The association bias.

The cognitive dissonance.

The cat who sat on a hot stove-lid is not about to sit again on a stove-lit, cold, warm, or hot.

Regardless of the frequent successful presentations, Kevin’s green polka-dot underpants should not be of any guarantee for further “good luck” experiment.

And it is your good luck to lose the first time you play in a Casino. Otherwise, the beginner’s luck might sober your zeal pretty soon.

Beginner’s good luck played a role in early Internet stocks, house boom in real estates, company acquisitions, quick initial battle victories…

What’s the difference between beginner’s luck and first signs of real talents?

1. Are you much better than the others over a long period?

2. The more people competing, the greater the chances are one of them will repeatedly strike lucky, and it might be your talent in the domain that was fortunate.

3. Consider that besides talents, you probably were also fortunate a couple of times: don’t get overboard imagining a financial empire

4. Are you capable to taking it easy until you disprove your initial theory? Kind of sending your already “accepted” manuscript to ten other publishers to double check their responses that the manuscript is indeed a good one?

Did you lie to yourself every time you interpret a failed attempt as “Not so bad” after all? This is called Cognitive dissonance. and “shoot-the messenger” syndrome is a common case of bad association biases.

For example, a bunch of students were hired to go through a totally boring task for an hour.

After the task was over, Group A was given a single dollar to lie (to wax lyrical about the task) to the waiting second batch of students.

Group B was given $20 to also lie and encourage the students to submit to the task.

Group A has later rated the monotonous task as enjoyable or interesting. Why?

For just a single dollar, Group A preferred to lie to itself instead, and find the task acceptable in order to encourage the incoming subjects.

Group B lied through its teeth and vaunted the exiting nature of the task.

The final outcome was that most incoming subjects believed that the task would be exciting.

 

 

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