Adonis Diaries

This Scapegoat tendency of Single Cause fallacy

Posted on: October 21, 2014

This Scapegoat tendency of Single Cause fallacy

Tolstoy humored the gravity cause of the fallen apple. He enumerated two dozen possibilities of why an apple does fall “And no thing is the cause”

“People are Not the masters of their own destinies” as Aristotle proclaimed. There exists a complex network of influencing factors.

People are the masters of what Fortune and coincidences made them to take advantage of, making the best of what come to them and what they came to be.

Genetic predisposition, upbringing, education, levels of hormones, brain structure, attractive features, stature, social status… all contributed to what you are and were capable of achieving.

For example, unprofitable companies don’t get corporate loans in order to improve.

Though, the more loans the company is extended the wider the rate of returns, the bigger cash cushion, and the better they can stay afloat and much longer than the companies who are refused loans. And the financial world claim that the profitable and best managed companies are those considered best equipped to receive loans.

The company that went bankrupt do not show up in any study sample group of how these “debt-ridden” companies may fail.

Suppose that due to ill side effects you decide to take an “important” pill irregularly.

This group of  “irregular taking” patient is categorized as “irregular intake” group in evaluation studies of a drug.

The subjects who vanished from the sample (the “irregular intake”) are the ones who should have made the difference in evaluation studies  according to proper procedures and protocols.

The well-intentioned group who carried out the prescription according to procedures and protocols as a minority of all the patients who suffered from side effects. But the evaluation wants to hide the side-effects part of a drug.

Everything in nature and human interactions are intrinsically connected and trying had to discover a single cause is an abnormal behavior.

The Via Negativa concept is “We know things through what it is Not” and yet, we consistently focus on what is only significant.

Warren Buffet said: “I learned to avoid difficult business problems

Read: The Art of Thinking Clear

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