Adonis Diaries

Archive for October 24th, 2014

Magic 70 and the horrible exponential growth

Never throw any percentage per year increases in vain.

1. What an inflation of 5% per year means? Divide 70 by 5= 14. Your dollar value will decrease by 50% in 14 years

2. Accident rate increasing by 7% per year? 70/7= 10. Accidents will double in 10 years

3. If you double a grain of rice for each square in the chess game, all the rice production in the world will not cover the last square.

4. Fold a paper 0.004 inch thick 50 times and the resulting thickness covers the distance from earth to the sun, or 70 million miles.

And what would be the global population if birth rate increases by 1%?  Would that mean the population should double in 70 years?

Help me out here. Suppose a fertile woman will give birth once every 3 years, and taking into account that women stop being fertile at age 40, and can give birth starting at age 15…

And that the average life expectancy is 50 overall, including all the deaths from diseases (mainly from the three very bad diseases such as malaria, dysenteric, AIDS), from famine, malnutrition, infantile mortality, miscarriages, killing the female fetus, civil wars, collateral damages, birth defects from “unlawful” ammunition, radio-active materials, toxic chemicals, road accidents….

How much global population will increase per year?

The best way is to adopt India as an anchor for your computation, on the ground that more than two third of mankind conditions and life-style resemble that of the Indian population.

In this case, all that the UN is to do is to fund periodic accurate census in India and the computation of estimates of most everything will be very close to target.


This Ultimatum game and Last Chance offer fallacy

Either the negotiation succeed or you lose everything?

This ultimatum game is the manifestation of the “Theory of Mind“, a set of how others feel and think concepts.

When the other party is an “abstraction”, we cannot see or hear, the share they are offered drops on average from over 30% to below 20% because the feeling of unfairness gets out of the picture.

When the two parties meet face to face the sense of fairness plays a big role in reaching satisfactory end games.

When the parties decide to have a mediator (in order not to meet face to face) the negotiation drags on simply because one party had decided not to reach an agreement.

Statistics don’t stir us, but people do.

The preemptive wars of 2014 by Israel on Gaza has upset people around the world because pictures and videos were disseminated and were covered by social platforms and web sites: The story was given a face.

The Last Chance behavior is linked to our fear of regret: We need to quickly fall in line in order to conform with the community.

We feel more sympathy for the passenger, who by a fluke of an accident or circumstances, decided to board at the last minute the plane that crashed than with the remaining passengers.

People who failed to take action feel more regret than those who acted and were wrong in their decision.

Remember that willpower is like an electric battery: If depleted, your future challenges will falter if you don’t replenish your battery by good sleep and good relaxation techniques.

Read: The Art of Thinking Clear




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