Adonis Diaries

A few of my comments on FB: USA, Syria, Lebanon, Kurds, Turkey, Climate Change…

Posted on: March 20, 2016

A few of my comments on FB: USA, Syria, Lebanon, Kurds, Turkey, Climate Change


While the Pentagon and the White House’s national-security apparatuses were still moving toward war (John Kerry told me he was expecting a strike the day after his speech), the president had come to believe that he was walking into a trap
A trap laid both by allies and by adversaries, and by conventional expectations of what an American president is supposed to do.
The US intelligence told him that the Syrian regime use of Sarin gas “Was Not a slam dunk” as the propaganda was confirming.
Actually, Al Nusra and ISIS have been gazing regions before any and military incursions

When the USA responded to Putin withdrawal of his troops in Syria that the sanctions will remain relative to Ukrain problem, we hope it was simply a temporary slap for Putin’s over-extension of his troops.
Putin knows very well that his undertakings do Not constitute a real threat to the US: No military excursions without a strong economy is a credible threat. (Russia GNP is as large as Italy and less diversified)
But Putin valiantly wants a tacit recognition from Washington that he can contribute effectively with whatever means he still has to world peace and confronting world terrorism.
Otherwise, Putin will have Not many options but to dovetail China’s world policies.

The second conclusion of Obama is that even if the Middle East were surpassingly important, (Not to his opinion) there would still be little an American president could do to make it a better place.

Climate Change

We have a structural problem to approach climate change.
You can simultaneously understand the medium to long-term risks of climate change and also come to the conclusion that it is in your short-term economic interest to invest in oil and gas.
Which is why anybody who tells you that the market is going to fix this on its own is lying to you.
But the government institutions are wary of changing this mid-fix of market stupid fixing of anything that drastic and existential

So the agreement says that we pledge to keep temperatures below two degrees and we’ll endeavor to keep them below 1.5 degrees Celsius.
Now, we have already increased temperatures to one degree Celsius
So we’re already in the dangerous era of climate change.
But we can’t stop now
We need to rely on coal and oil to get more cash to invest in climate change alternastive?
And you are telling me that the conference was a success story?
Just because we recognize this existential threat?


The Syrian government will have to boldly admit that an alternative political discourse has to be contemplated after 45 years of same political mentality.
A different political structure needs to be revised for a sustainable reform

The best news in Syria is the coming together of all minorities in the north to proclaiming a federated province.
Until a new constitution is agreed upon for the Syrian people, the Kurdish federation will be the focus point to discussing a new perspective of how to govern Syria.
And an example to other countries on how to restructure their political perception on minorities and the role of central governments and the basic central institutions

The Kurds in north Syria are working for a federal status. This should be good news to the central Syrian government:
1. It insure unity of the land
2. the central government will spend its reconstruction infrastructure on the heavily dense regions.
3. This Kurdish zone will become a buffer to Turkey frequent blackmailing of Syrians whenever it is angry or upset with Syria decisions

China has stopped investing in Russia air strikes in Syria. The deal was for 6 months
Iran has to increase its share of the expenses for the necessary airstrikes to get control of Aleppo, Tadmor and a few other strategic locations.
The US and Nato are to bomb Al Rakka
Turkey is to handle Edleb for a resolution to the political settlement


After each terror attack in Turkey, the government immediate announcement is: This is the doing of either Da3esh Or the PKK.

A suggestion to this Turkish befuddled Erdogan government:

  1. If the target is a security post, lay it on the PKK
  2. If the targets are tourist sites and religious sites… lay it on ISIS

Feltet bi Tirkiyyat wa daa3 al shenkesh


Over the past 2 years, Hezbollah deployed a real army in Syria.
Wars always find ways to generate cash money.
It is the peace periods that have hard time finding the necessary funds.
In order for Hezbollah to return its army into Lebanon, it badly needs vast opportunities in Lebanon to relocate and tame the returning soldiers.
What Saudi Kingdom and the Gulf Emirates are doing are exactly the contrary to what is necessary for Hezbollah to repatriate its troops: Hitting hard on Lebanon financial system, deporting working Lebanese in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf, and officially lambasting Hezbollah as a terrorist organization
In fact, they all want Hezbollah to export its troops beyond Syria and Not return to Lebanon.
Otherwise, Hezbollah will have Not many options but to create a climate for wars, and most probably initiate a war on Israel in order to create a proper climate for his requirements to be taken seriously by the regional powers

Hezbollah has demonstrated that it is a powerful and effective movement for securing the stability and peace of Lebanon and providing an excellent deterrent force against the successive Israeli pre-emptive wars.

Ain (3ain) el Tineh?  It is the palace of Nabih Berry, chairman of the Parliament. And he has been in this position for ever, longer than any known dictator in the Arab World.

Did any one notice this phenomenon?
Every politician pay visit to Berry residency and He never pay visit to the residency of anyone?
Ain el Tineh is becoming the tacit siege of the parliament where the deputies come to meet.

And where the government members come to meet, including Tamam Salam PM.

While Berry doesn’t set foot in the Serai?
Jumblat visit Berry but Berry doesn’t set foot in Moukhtara or Clemenceau?
General Michel Aoun (3oun) visit Berry but Berry never set foot in Rabiyeh?
Sa3d Hariri visit Ain el Tineh but Berry doesn’t set foot in Al Wassat?
Who is the President, the PM and also the Legislative chairman?

Berry is a civil war Shi3a militia leader (Amal) who enjoyed total Syrian backing and who blockaded  the Palestinian refugee camps for 6 months and attacked them by order of Hafez Assad.

Berry has his own internal security forces, special brigades of the regular army and his own militia.

The beauty is Not a single one of his extended family members are permitted to be on the media or newspapers, either in photos or interviews or voicing any opinion. Only his second wife appears in charity events.

I lean to believe that Berry is the richest man in Lebanon, but no one dare voice it: He still control the Black Box for the reconstruction of the south, he has shares on every deal in Beirut and the south, on of his daughters has a diversified portfolio in many businesses, his sons in the US have scores of gas stations in Dearborn and other cities…

No one is a viable candidate to inherited Berry’s political power, neither his sons, daughters or any member in the Amal movement.

Sa3d Hariri was implicitly clear yesterday on Kalam Nass:
“I don’t mind 3aoun as President. It is Berry and Jumblat who don’t want him.”
And Suleiman Frangiyyeh cannot be elected because Ja3ja3 and 3aoun don’t want him (The Christians don’t want him).
Who is the third candidate allied to March 8 who will be elected in April?
Frankly, Frangiyyeh does Not satisfy mouwasafaat President.
After kel hal te3teer, yijilna ekta3i m3antez wa moush met3alem?

My greatest pride and achievement in my life is the speech I delivered the second day of the pre-emptive war of the Saudi Kingdom on Yemen.
Since 2005, we all knew that the main source of all the assassination, car bombing,terrorist behaviors, security instability in Lebanon and the Arab world… were initiated by the Saudi Kingdom, in cooperation with Israel, USA, England…
Since 2005, I refrained from confronting publicly the Saudi Kingdom policies and barbarity, mindful of preserving the unity in Lebanon and minimizing its repercussions on the strategy of dividing Sunnis and Chi3as.
I will no longer desist of exposing and challenging the actions of the Saudi Kingdom at every occasion.
(Hassan Nasr Allah speech this March 1, 2016)

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March 2016

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