The battle for eastern Aleppo will be over soon, but tens of thousands of Syrians there will find little peace.
The victory for the government of President Bashar al-Assad will open another violent, disorienting chapter in their lives, and a dangerous one for the opposition.
Soon, civilians and rebel fighters alike will either be punished or have to flee the city and join the many thousands of others displaced by President Assad and his Iranian and Russian allies — part of a plan to break the insurgency, and change Syria forever.
In a recent interview, Mr. Assad said that taking Aleppo, which has been the site of fighting for years, “won’t mean the end of the war in Syria, but it will be a huge step toward this end.” He’s right on both counts.
It would certainly be the most notable in a string of recent victories by his forces, along with those of Russia, Iran and other allied militia groups. The aftermaths of these victories show what’s in store for the civilians and rebel fighters in Aleppo: Surrender might save them from bombs, siege and starvation, but other calamities await. (Like what? After the horrors the citizens experienced?)
The history of what Mr. Assad’s government once called “truces” — but now more honestly promotes as military victories — is dark. (Most cities were cleared from terrorist rebels by such negotiated truces, where the militants and families are relocated to Edleb or northern regions of their choices)
In 2014, Mr. Assad’s forces detained hundreds of young men in the opposition who had agreed to surrender in the Old City of Homs, a center of the uprising that was eventually bombed and starved into submission. Many were promised amnesty, only to be conscripted into the very military that had killed their families. (By their own signed agreement in order to re-integrate their communities)
Residents were eventually allowed to leave to other opposition areas carrying a single bag each. (Fighters could take one personal weapon.) Displacing or detaining populations has become business as usual in areas retaken by the regime.
Two years later, Mr. Assad is even less compromising. Today he claims the chance of a truce in Aleppo is “practically nonexistent.” His confidence is buoyed by a series of rebel defeats in 2016, after which populations were forced from besieged areas to Idlib Province in northwestern Syria.
Today, as one Aleppo district after another falls, the rebels know resistance is futile; Mr. Assad knows that they know. His forces will make opposition areas unlivable, isolate fighters from civilians, and force both to surrender or leave.
These cleansings reflect a pattern, but the strategy behind them is still unclear. Maybe Mr. Assad believes that if these people remain, they will pose a permanent threat to nearby areas under his control.
Maybe he doesn’t want to spend government money on them. Or maybe his minority-led regime (that’s past history: Most of the army is constituted of Sunnis and Christians) just wants to push disloyal Sunnis out of its heartland in western Syria (dominated by Daesh and still supported by USA).
Whatever the logic, this ominous pattern — sometimes called the “green bus” strategy after the vehicles used to transport the displaced — paints a grim picture of what the people of Aleppo can expect. (Turned out Not to be grim, but a joyous end from slavery and famine)
Adonis Diaries 
Leave a Reply