Adonis Diaries

Visible risks are not real risks… What you don’t know is categorized as random events…

Posted on: December 23, 2017

Visible risks are not real risks… What you don’t know is categorized as random events
Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote: THE LEBANESE WAR THAT DOESN’T HAPPEN.
Lebanon is much safer than anywhere else.
The casualty rate from car bombs in Lebanon over 2013 was 2.5 per 100,000 people.
It remains < a tenth of crime in NY in the 90s, <20th of crime in Brazil, etc.
Outside bombs the homicide rate is very low.  Why? Simply, a bomb is immediately noticed by the press, series of isolated crimes don’t make the newspaper.
Antony Veich wrote: “in the case of Belfast the press usually stayed at The Europa, so the IRA took the bombs to the hotel… 28 times.”
Sadly, people in 2014 make more irrational decisions than they did in 1900. Visible risks are not really risks.
The other good news is that everyone is worried about “future risks“.
The risks in Lebanon are not hidden. They are open for everyone to see, and nobody is wondering why in spite of all these incidents the war DID NOT happen?
Every bomb that does not cause generalized warfare makes the system more robust to war (see Antifragility).
In 1975 the Palestinians had nothing to lose from civil war. Same with Syria.
Today all parties in Lebanon have skin in the game, and are deep into real estate in Beirut.

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