Archive for October 28th, 2019
Third article on Lebanon’s mass upheaval since October 17
Note: If you care to read the second article
From 1971 to the onset of the civil war, Beirut experienced a mass upheaval that turned out to become a continuous movable feast/fair. The upheaval demanded reforms in the political system that would drop this sectarian/comprador political and economic structure. You may read the link at the end of the article.
The militia/mafia “leaders”, in control of the political system since 1992, were trying hard Not to have a budget within the legal period and then Lebanon forgo the concept of budget from 2005 to 2018.
The current mass upheaval is in its 12th day. During the first 2 days, the protesters wanted to foment the people against the President Aoun and Saad Hariri PM, as totally impotent in governing and perform any change.
Their fake news and lies backfired. Even their hooligans felt shame facing this united massive uprising.
This surprised mass upheaval forced these militia leaders (Nabih Berry, Walid Jumblaat and Samir Jeaja) to backtrack and vote on the budget and all the reforms in the last government meeting.
Hariri was the first to deliver a speech and promised 72 hours before taking a decision for his resignation. Hezbollah secretary general was second in talking to the movement and declared that the resignation of the government is out of the question for practical reasons and to avoid a long lasting void.
Then the President delivered his speech and it was Not basically different from the PM, since Not a single reform action was executed in the last 9 days.
I warned that it was Not advisable for the President to deliver a speech without offering the protesters a tangible reform: Confidence that the President can deliver is worth a thousand speech.
Hassan Naser Allah’s second speech was alarming: he stated that this movement has been guided by foreign powers in order to drive Lebanon into chaos and ordered his followers to desist from joining the upheaval. He warned that if the government proved a resistance to deliver on its promises, then Hezbollah will act vigorously to prevent any chaos.
The army and the internal security forces met and reached an agreement to open blocked highways. The militia “leaders” such as Samir Ja3ja3 and Walid Jumblatt were given 48 hours to call home their armed hooligans and desist in acting as militia by blocking side roads and demanding citizens to show their identity cards…
The main difference between this mass upheaval and that of 1971 is that the newer generations refused to listen to the older “revolutionaries” and could Not produce quality political awareness.
In the 1971 uprising there were cultural events that bolstered the quality of the civil Lebanon, theaters, great movies, discussions… Should we hope for a qualitative change in how the protesters are spending their time?
I have no problems with a few protesters sitting on sofas and surrounded with the facilities of a cozy home. I am disturbed that they are Not discussing to enhance their political awareness: each one of them is isolated with his expensive iPhone. Thus, what basically changed?
Actually, you have people instructing the protesters methods of how to confront the army.
Nothing of quality comes in a hurry: it needs reflective periods and the ability to select the relevant facts in the constant streaming of the mass of facts. And be able to pinpoint the fake news on the base of good general knowledge
All the government institutions have been staffed with personnel that owe its survival to the mafia/militia “leaders” for 3 decades. You can constitute any government you want, the result is “who will execute the decisions”?
A technocrat, if Not strongly politically backed, cannot pressure the civil servant to obey his decision, especially those in the upper echelons.
The question is: How can any change occur if One Third of the population survive as civil servants and are used to sizable “backsheesh” and shady deals?
Pragmatically, only a Big Fish in a stagnant pond can clean it from the smaller fishes.
Thus, the movement must strike a deal with the government to dismiss the main higher level civil servants whom were demonstrated to be as rotten as the main mafia/militia “leaders” and who fully cooperated in this endemic “fassaad” or highway robbery of the budgets since 1991.
This mass upheaval can force this government to move forcefully against most of the civil servants that are in cohort with the monopolies of consumer goods, energy, financial transaction, services, communication…
So far, the movement has been intent on blocking roads and streets, in fact emulating the tactics of the civil war militia without being aware of their behavior. Blocking roads is tantamount of cutting communication among the citizens and making it difficult for the daily economic trade cycle.
This movement keep chanting “Down with this government”, “Down with this rotten regime”… but no viable pragmatic alternatives are materializing.
If the western States, Israel, Saudi Kingdom and Qatar are intent on weakening the social base of Hezbollah by persisting on a long upheaval without any communication with the current government, then I submit that Lebanon will experience a long protracted period of miseries.
The Lebanese will have to invent an alternative financial and economic structure to circumvent the lack of cash flow and investment. We will be going through very difficult time that will last years, until we manage to re-create another economical and financial system that permit us to survive as a State.
Representatives of this movement “7iraak” must meet with the President, the PM, Nabih Berry (chairman of Parliament for a quarter of century)and Riad Salami (Central Bank chief since 1992). They should meet with them on individual settings and on condition that these meetings be Live and transparent. Let see who of them dare meet the people Live.
Note 2: This link for a special article of most of my comments that I posted on FB pertaining to this mass upheaval. https://adonis49.wordpress.com/2019/10/25/special-articles-of-comments-pertaining-to-lebanon-mass-upheaval/
Note 3: My article on the long upheaval from 1971 till the onset of the civil war: this movable feast. https://adonis49.wordpress.com/2019/09/05/movable-fairs-in-beirut-1971-74/
Historical wrong-timing calamity: Why Lebanon civil war lasted that long?
Posted by: adonis49 on: October 28, 2019
This historical wrong-timing calamity 4 decades mistake:How Lebanon civil war lasted that long?
Late Hafez Assad troops crosses Lebanon borders in 1976
Note: an update of my article posted in August 2018
This historical error of judgement by Syria late Hafez Assad in 1976: Lebanese are still paying its dear price, 50 years later.
The Lebanese “progressive” movement of political parties, allied with Palestine Liberation Organization (Yaser Arafat, who was a Muslim Brotherhood)), were massed in the town of Dhour Shouweir and ready to enter Bikfaya and descend on Jounieh (supposedly a stronghold of the Christian militias forces).
The US ambassador hurried to Damascus to convince Hafez to cross the borders and prevent the defeat of the Christian militias.
The US and Israel gave Syria the green light and dangled all kinds of opportunities for Assad to move quickly, a one-life opportunity to take control of a big chunk of Lebanon, sort of a mandated power.
The “Leftist” alliance needed barely 3 weeks to end their plan of attack.
Hafez didn’t give them that reprieve and ordered them to stop the attack.
Surely they resisted the onslaught of the Syrian army and delayed for 6 months the Syrian army to deploy.
But the “Christian” militias were saved and given fresh opportunities to resume their traditional treacherous activities before and after Lebanon independence of begging the colonial powers and Israel to continue their international support and weapon transfer.
The “Christian” leaders have always been the confirmed stooges to the colonial powers, on the faked and untenable assumption that their survival is linked to the firm colonial support.
Though previous experience and successive later ones proved to be wrong and the colonial powers didn’t give any weight for the minority Christian forces, militarily and politically
So, what convinced Hafez, this level headed and patient leader, to cross in the wrong timing?
It was easy to surmise that in critical periods, the clan and minority spirit overcome the general concept of unity of the nation.
A minority “Muslim” Alawi sect in power in Syria, coming to the rescue of a minority Maronite “christian” sect that was in power a year ago, before the start of Lebanon civil war. (Then the Maronite President had vast power. After the Taef agreement in 1990, most of those powers reverted to the Sunni Prime Minister)
Kind of minorities in power rescuing one another in critical junctions.
Obviously, Hafez was Not about to state this inclination and he proclaimed that the decision was taken months ahead of US demand to cross the border.
Israel agreed for the Syrian army to cross Lebanon borders with easy conditions: that the army stay clear from Lebanon southern borders with Israel (a “buffer zone” of about 40 km deep) and Not to transfer or equip its mandated troops with quality weapons that might constitute threat to Israel security.
Consequently, the Lebanese christian militias had an easy propaganda to resume their cooperation with Israel: Hafez was guaranteed a life-long power over Syria and is Not independent in his foreign decisions and affairs.
This historical decision to cross the border, 3 weeks before taming the christian militias, exacerbated the situation and let the civil war continue till 1992.
From 1976 til 1984, the Christian forces harassed militarily the Syrian troops in location they had a majority population: They forgot that it was the Syrian troops that saved them from oblivion.
The Lebanese civilians paid the heaviest of prices: mass transfer to newly created sectarian cantons.
Syrian controlled Lebanon til 2005 before withdrawing its troops.
From 1991 and on, military activities by Christian forces against the Syrian stopped since the world community agreed on a peaceful transition, but street demonstrations flurried up now and then.
There were No Victors in this protracted civil war and the militia “leaders” of all religious sects returned to power and they were ruling Lebanon for 3 decades.
(This current mass upheaval of the newer generations is a scream against this mafia/militia “leaders” monopoly over every consumer goods, energy, financial transactions, services, medicine…)
Since 2001, Lebanon has been declining economically, financially, politically and administratively: transformed into an anomie system where every deputy owns a basic business in Lebanon and swap shares without paying a dime in the transactions.
No public institutions function normally: No public electricity, potable water, polluted rivers and sea, and one third of the families relying on public services paychecks.
Israel also committed a strategic historical mistake by crossing Lebanon borders in 1982, entered Beirut, and forced the PLO to vacate Lebanon.
Since then, Israel had no valid lame excuses of trespassing the borders to attack Palestinian incursions within its borders.
Israel grabbed the excuse of the existence of Palestinian armed forces on its border to bomb the southern towns in order to chase these Lebanese out of their lands and take them over. Which she did for 25 years until it withdrew its troops in 2000 without any pre-conditions
Lebanon national movement to resist and kick out Israel occupation was constituted and Hezbollah was organized after Islamic Iran came to power in 1979.
Israel could no longer rely on the Palestinians refugees to destabilize Lebanon society.
Israel is currently on the defensive and unable to pre-empt any war on Lebanon, since its defeat in the 2006 war.
Wrong timing is accelerated by faulty and deformed idea-fix passions.
Adonis Diaries 