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Archive for March 21st, 2020

History of Pandemics

A Timeline of Historical Pandemics

Note: It is urgent to compare two Infographics covering the entire world: comparing the Corona pandemic victims and the traffic accidents after the onset of the pandemics, including the handicapped traffic accidents. The drastic reduction in car driving have obviously reduced the high risks of traffic accidents, and I may conjecture the decrease in health risks from gasoline particulates.

Disease and illnesses have plagued humanity since the earliest days, our mortal flaw.

It was not until the marked shift to agrarian communities that the scale and spread of these diseases increased dramatically.

Widespread trade created new opportunities for human and animal interactions that sped up such epidemics. Malaria, tuberculosis, leprosy, influenza, smallpox, and others first appeared during these early years.

The more civilized humans became – with larger cities, more exotic trade routes, and increased contact with different populations of people, animals, and ecosystems – the more likely pandemics would occur.

Here are some of the major pandemics that have occurred over time:

Name Time period Type / Pre-human host Death toll
Antonine Plague 165-180 Believed to be either smallpox or measles 5M
Japanese smallpox epidemic 735-737 Variola major virus 1M
Plague of Justinian 541-542 Yersinia pestis bacteria / Rats, fleas 30-50M
Black Death 1347-1351 Yersinia pestis bacteria / Rats, fleas 200M
New World Smallpox Outbreak 1520 – onwards Variola major virus 56M
Great Plague of London 1665 Yersinia pestis bacteria / Rats, fleas 100,000
Italian plague 1629-1631 Yersinia pestis bacteria / Rats, fleas 1M
Cholera Pandemics 1-6 1817-1923 V. cholerae bacteria 1M+
Third Plague 1885 Yersinia pestis bacteria / Rats, fleas 12M (China and India)
Yellow Fever Late 1800s Virus / Mosquitoes 100,000-150,000 (U.S.)
Russian Flu 1889-1890 Believed to be H2N2 (avian origin) 1M
Spanish Flu 1918-1919 H1N1 virus / Pigs 40-50M
Asian Flu 1957-1958 H2N2 virus 1.1M
Hong Kong Flu 1968-1970 H3N2 virus 1M
HIV/AIDS 1981-present Virus / Chimpanzees 25-35M
Swine Flu 2009-2010 H1N1 virus / Pigs 200,000
SARS 2002-2003 Coronavirus / Bats, Civets 770
Ebola 2014-2016 Ebolavirus / Wild animals 11,000
MERS 2015-Present Coronavirus / Bats, camels 850
COVID-19 2019-Present Coronavirus – Unknown (possibly pangolins) 6,400 (as of Mar 15, 2020)

Note: Many of the death toll numbers listed above are best estimates based on available research. Some, such as the Plague of Justinian, are subject to debate based on new evidence.

Despite the persistence of disease and pandemics throughout history, there’s one consistent trend over time – a gradual reduction in the death rate.

Healthcare improvements and understanding the factors that incubate pandemics have been powerful tools in mitigating their impact.

Wrath of the Gods

In many ancient societies, people believed that spirits and gods inflicted disease and destruction upon those that deserved their wrath. This unscientific perception often led to disastrous responses that resulted in the deaths of thousands, if not millions.

In the case of Justinian’s plague, the Byzantine historian Procopius of Caesarea traced the origins of the plague (the Yersinia pestis bacteria) to China and northeast India, via land and sea trade routes to Egypt where it entered the Byzantine Empire through Mediterranean ports.

Despite his apparent knowledge of the role geography and trade played in this spread, Procopius laid blame for the outbreak on the Emperor Justinian, declaring him to be either a devil, or invoking God’s punishment for his evil ways.

Some historians found that this event could have dashed Emperor Justinian’s efforts to reunite the Western and Eastern remnants of the Roman Empire, and marked the beginning of the Dark Ages.

Importing Disease

The practice of quarantine began during the 14th century, in an effort to protect coastal cities from plague epidemics.

Cautious port authorities required ships arriving in Venice from infected ports to sit at anchor for 40 days before landing — the origin of the word quarantine from the Italian “quaranta giorni”, or 40 days.

One of the first instances of relying on geography and statistical analysis was in mid-19th century London, during a cholera outbreak.

In 1854, Dr. John Snow came to the conclusion that cholera was spreading via tainted water and decided to display neighborhood mortality data directly on a map. This method revealed a cluster of cases around a specific pump from which people were drawing their water from.

While the interactions created through trade and urban life play a pivotal role, it is also the virulent nature of particular diseases that indicate the trajectory of a pandemic.

Tracking Infectiousness

Scientists use a basic measure to track the infectiousness of a disease called the reproduction number — also known as R0 or “R naught.” This number tells us how many susceptible people, on average, each sick person will in turn infect.

Measles tops the list, being the most contagious with a R0 range of 12-18. This means a single person can infect, on average, 12 to 18 people in an unvaccinated population.

While measles may be the most virulent, vaccination efforts and herd immunity can curb its spread.

The more people are immune to a disease, the less likely it is to proliferate, making vaccinations critical to prevent the resurgence of known and treatable diseases.

It’s hard to calculate and forecast the true impact of COVID-19, as the outbreak is still ongoing and researchers are still learning about this new form of coronavirus.

Urbanization and the Spread of Disease

We arrive at where we began, with rising global connections and interactions as a driving force behind pandemics. From small hunting and gathering tribes to the metropolis, humanity’s reliance on one another has also sparked opportunities for disease to spread.

Urbanization in the developing world is bringing more and more rural residents into denser neighborhoods, while population increases are putting greater pressure on the environment.

At the same time, passenger air traffic nearly doubled in the past decade. These macro trends are having a profound impact on the spread of infectious disease.

As organizations and governments around the world ask for citizens to practice social distancing to help reduce the rate of infection, the digital world is allowing people to maintain connections and commerce like never before.

Note 2: Smallpox wiped out 90% of Native American and the Bubonic plague wiped out 50% of European population

Editor’s Note: The COVID-19 pandemic is in its early stages and it is obviously impossible to predict its future impact. This post and infographic are meant to provide historical context, and we will continue to update it as time goes on to maintain its accuracy.

Update (March 15, 2020): We’ve adjusted the death toll for COVID-19, and will continue to update on a regular basis.

US troops in Europe: source of Coronavirus in Europe

Les exercices DEFENDER-Europe 20 de l’Otan menacent l’Europe

By Olivier Renault

Un débarquement massif de troupes américaines met le pied en Europe depuis la fin du mois de janvier et cela correspond à l’arrivée de coronavirus sur le vieux continent.

Le traitement médiatique de l’épidémie empêche de couvrir et de parler de la mise en place des grandes manœuvres de l’Otan mais surtout de dire que l’expansion du coronavirus en UE semble avoir un lien avec cette invasion de populations portant l’uniforme US venant de plusieurs coins du monde dont de l’Asie.

En effet, du personnel otanien provient d’Asie et de Milan qui abrite un quartier général multinational de forces à déploiement rapide affectés à l’Otan http://www.nrdc-ita.nato.int/23/what-is-nrdc-ita .

En outre, c’est bien à partir de l’Oise, zone de la base militaire de Creil, que le virus s’est répandu en France en formant un «cluster».

Un cas de contamination dans l’ Agence européenne de défense (AED) est confirmé. L’ épidémie suit les activités et les déplacements militaires de l’Otan.

En Europe, près de 64, 809 soldats américains sont, en tenant compte des fluctuations entre 2015 et 2019, stationnés de manière permanente en Europe sans tenir compte des civils.

Officiellement, le premier navire contenant le matériel de l’armée américaine est arrivé début février au port d’Anvers.

Mais l’opération DEFENDER-Europe 20, qui est considérée comme l’exercice militaire qui sera le le plus gros déploiement militaire des États-Unis depuis 25 ans sur le sol européen, a exigé de nombreux voyages de militaires de l’Otan entre les bases américaines situées en Europe, dans le monde (3) et des bases de l’Otan qui font la coordination avec les armées des autres pays.

En outre, cela nécessite le soutien de dizaines de milliers de civils dans plusieurs pays sans oublier les 37 000 soldats, dont 20 000 Américains qui vont participer entre avril et juin à cette opération militaire XXL durant laquelle sera simulée l’attaque d’un pays de l’Otan en 2028.

Antonio Mazzeo, journaliste et expert militaire qui étudie la militarisation de l’Italie a déclaré que «l’Italie compte plus de 100 bases militaires américaines et que «l’Italie autorise également le déploiement de militaires américains et de l’Otan dans les sites civils».

Les premiers cas en France de Coronavirus, avec des personnes, selon les sources des média, n’ayant pas voyagé en Chine, correspondent aux sites des bases militaires françaises qui collaborent avec l’Otan: La 9e brigade d’infanterie de marine avec le  3e régiment d’infanterie de marine (3e RIMa) de Vannes située à côté d’un «cluster» sur Carnac et de  la base aérienne de Creil avec un «cluster» dans l’Oise.

Les média ne parlent pas de ce lien entre les bases de l’Otan dans le monde et les bases militaires en France qui travaillent elles aussi avec cette organisation militaire surtout dans le cadre de la mise en place et l’organisation de DEFENDER-Europe 20.

La base de Creil, c’est la Direction du renseignement militaire (DRM), le centre névralgique entre les forces armées françaises et celle de l’Otan, juste placé sous  le chef d’état-major des armées (CEMA), qui est un lien donc important avec l’Agence européenne de défense, le quartier général de l’Otan de Bruxelles et le quartier général multinational de forces à déploiement rapide affectés à l’Otan de Milan, région dans laquelle se trouve un important «cluster».

Avec la base de Creil, un autre cas révélé par les média aux Etats-Unis, confirment le fait que la contamination a lieu avec les activités militaires.

CNN révèle qu’une femme, qui avait été évacuée de Wuhan vers la base militaire aérienne de Lackland à San Antonio sur un vol affrété par le Département d’État, avait été libérée de la base alors qu’elle a été plus tard testée positive au coronavirus.

A la base militaire de Creil, les média ont d’abord dit que c’est un civil travaillant avec les militaires, alors qu’il ne serait pas non plus rendu dans une zone à risque avant d’être contaminé, qui l’a été et mis dans une situation clinique grave en réanimation à Amiens.

Le ministère des Armées déclare que «les militaires de l’escadron Esterel, basés à Creil et ayant participé au rapatriement des Français de Wuhan, ne sont pas à l’origine de l’importation du virus dans le département» pourtant c’est bien à la base de Creil que se trouve le «cluster» répandu dans l’Oise.

Si les rapatriés de Wuhan ne sont pas la cause de l’épidémie, alors la circulation entre du personnel de la Direction du renseignement militaire (DRM) de Creil et la base internationale de l’Otan de Milan au moment de Defender-Europe 20 en serait la source car Milan est le plus gros «cluster» en Europe sans oublier les échanges avec l’Agence européenne de défense.

Ces versions semblent être confirmées par le fait qu’ un fonctionnaire de l’Agence européenne de défense a été détecté positif au Coronavirus et que certains collègues d’AED ont été mis en quarantaine.

Le filon de contamination par les bases de l’Otan se retrouve aussi en Allemagne car ces «cluster» allemands se trouvent non loin du quartier général de l’Otan à Bruxelles et dans les zones où se trouvent les bases américaines dans le pays.

Note: Soldiers in colonial power States, particularly in the USA, are subjected as cobays to all kinds of vaccines and medical treatments. I conjecture many US soldiers were vaccinated to kinds of Coronavirus types and dispatched to hundreds of military bases on all continents.

The flaw is that the  “cured” Corona victims or vaccinated one, can still contaminate others and needs to be quarantined individually for another month.

1 – https://www.visualcapitalist.com/u-s-military-personnel-deployments-country/

2 – https://www.statista.com/chart/17355/us-military-overseas/

3 – 56, 216 soldats US au Japon et 26, 311 en Corée du Sud https://www.statista.com/chart/17355/us-military-overseas/

Olivier Renault

And seasons resume their natural trends: Not aware of this Corona pandemics?

Note: I re-edited this article and tried to add poetry to Google translation from French

It was March 2020

The streets were empty, stores closed, people couldn’t go out anymore.

And then Spring flashed its colors, spread its scent: Spring didn’t know why this awful unusual aloofness of people with nature.

And the flowers bloomed prematurely, the sun was shining, the birds were singing, swallows were coming sooner, the sky was blue, and another glorious morning took us by surprise.

It was March 2020…
Young people had to study online, and find jobs from home, people couldn’t shop anymore, or go to the hairdresser. Soon there would be no room in hospitals, and people continued to get sick.

The garden needed urgent upkeep, the grass was re-surfacing its head, and still Spring was memoryless of what’s going on

It was March 2020…
People have been on lockdown, to protect grandparents, families and children. No more reunion or meal, family party. Fear has become real and the days looked alike.

But spring didn’t know, apple trees, cherry blossomed and the leaves grew green and larger

People started reading, playing with family, learning a new language (hopefully the language of cheerful living), singing on the balcony by inviting neighbors to join in, share the supportive community, and focused on other values than indefinite growth in production and financial “services”.

Then, it might have dawned on people the importance of health, the suffering of the isolated patients, of this crowded world that had stopped, of economical “perpetual growth” on halt.

But spring didn’t know. the flowers transformed into fruits, the bees enjoyed the abundance, the birds made their nest, swallows had arrived.

Then people found out on TV that this contagious virus had lost this round in the battle for a while, people hurried down to the streets, singing, crying, kissing their neighbors, without masks or gloves.

And that’s when summer took the spring by surprise: Both seasons didn’t know in what a mess humankind has been going through.

The next season started despite everything, despite the virus, fear and death. Because spring and all the seasons taught people the power of life.

Everything will be alright, stay home, protect yourself, and take another shot to enjoying life, a quality in living.


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

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