Archive for April 14th, 2020
Cedar breath from Lebanon
Note: Re-edit of “Old fragrance from the dead”
Fragrance wafting hot,
Myrrh, spices, thyme
Old fragrance travelled for years
Over oceans and deserts
Spreading tales and myths
Reminiscing stories of old countries and empires;
Lights of a star reaching mankind
Star long time dead.
Dead star still sending the message to common people:
“I live; I live in your eyes, in your dreams, in your hopes.
I have disintegrated,
But the light recreated, and reborn of Lebanon by other stars is on.
Old fragrance from the dead
Civilization, culture, and man
Breathes of cedars in Lebanon.
Flaming in the sun
Confined in closets.
Old fragrance from the dead
To mankind living in a shrinking present
A past unwanted
A future disconnected and uncertain.
Old fragrance from the dead
Death still sending messages
Of centuries ago,
Olfactif messages
Of a dying nature
Cedar breath from Lebanon.
I need a “Steady Dream”: Conscious or night dream
Note: Re-edit of “A Steady Dream. July 28, 2009″
1. I need a dream. A steady dream.
A dream that doesn’t change with age,
A dream that doesn’t grow when short on money,
That doesn’t shrink when I’m rich.
2. I need a dream that won’t die when I hear one pass away,
That doesn’t start all over when I see a newborn open his eyes.
I need a dream steady
While I am not brain dead.
3. I need a dream that I can act on:
Lest it is forgotten.
A dream to act on everyday,
Even when I’m drunk with sleep.
Lest it is replaced
By a faked dream.
Beware of total confidence in your “expert intuition”
EXPERT INTUITION? Kind of confident in your conjecture?
Posted by: adonis49 on: November 19, 2018
DANIEL KAHNEMAN, Nobel Prize in psychology, ON EXPERT INTUITION
You can always find reasons to support your decisions.
Call it plain luck when your intuitions are right while the situation is volatile.
The challenge of intuition is you think it’s right before it’s examined. When you have an intuition, you don’t have other intuitions. You have confidence.
The danger of going with your gut is it feels right without reason.
Dangerous intuition:
“In general, confidence is a very poor cue to accuracy. Intuitions come to your mind with considerable confidence and there is no guarantee that they’re right. Intuitions that are completely wrong also come to mind with great confidence.” Daniel Kahneman – World Business Forum 2018 (Kahneman is a psychology researcher who received a Nobel Prize)
The development of expert intuitions:
When the following conditions are present, people develop expert intuition.
#1. There must be some regularity in the world.
You might feel that the numbers you picked will win the lottery, but lottery-intuition is useless.
People who pick stocks work in a volatile unpredictable world. Their intuitions are useless. The stock market is not sufficiently regular to support the development of expert intuition.
Chess players and married people have high regularity.
#2. Lots of practice.
Novices may have a feeling about a decision, but you need lots of practice before you should trust your gut. Many events that are right feel wrong to novices.
Remember that #1 above must also be true. Lots of practice in a highly volatile environment doesn’t develop expert intuition.
#3. Immediate feedback.
You need to quickly see the result of decisions or actions in order to develop expert intuition. Did your decision turn out as anticipated, not months, but hours or days later?
Generally, confidence and accuracy of intuition are at best loosely related.
The danger of intuition is a premature decision.
Kahneman’s tips on intuition:
- Delay intuition.
- Be systematic about collecting data.
What suggestions do you have for developing expert intuition?
How can leaders learn to examine their intuitions?
This post is based on Daniel Kahneman’s presentation at the World Business Forum in New York City 2018.
Note: I read many research articles of Kahneman when taking graduate courses in experimental psychology around 1988.
