Adonis Diaries

What’s going on in Iraq? Any prospect for a political stability in the medium-term?

Posted on: December 19, 2020

A state, two factions of the Popular Volunteers (Hashid Shaabi/7ashed sha3bi) and Kurdish factions

ISIS had entered Mosul and occupied a vast swath of Iraq western provinces. Before ISIS advanced quickly toward Baghdad, Iran dispatched “resistance forces” to the Kurdish regions and forced ISIS to change its plans in occupying Kerkuk and the kurdish provinces in the North-East of Iraq.

The Iraqi resistance, supported by Iran against ISIS, was underway, and lare Suleimani (assassinated by US/Israel) was the leading leader in the counter-offensive planning and execution. The “Bader militia” was the main organization that united the volunteer fighters into a cohesive fighting force.

The Fatwa of Iraq Ayatollah Sistani was mainly a catalyst that encouraged the disinherited and poorer classes to volunteer in fighting ISIS at a vaster scale.

ISIS has been vanquished and Iraq recaptured its land, except in a few pockets in the North-West that Turkey still insist on maintaining strong military bases, on the excuse to opposing kurdish military movements Not associated with Turkish policies in the region.

Currently, the Hashid Shaabi is being splintered into two factions.

The original movement with its solid institutions is basically aligned with the Wilayat Faqih of Iran Ayatollah Khamenei

The splintered faction assembles 4 factions under the name of “Hashid Atabaat”, meaning associated with Iraqi Shia Imams such as: Al Abbas Battalion, Liwa2 Ali Akbar (associated with Atabat Hussainiat), Firkat Imam Ali (associated with Alawit Atabat), and Ansar Marja3iyat (Sistani).

These 4 factions held a 3-day conference from 1 to 3 December under the motto “Hashid Atabaat: the protector of the Iraqi Fatwa and the building of the State”.

So far, Ayatollah Sistani refused to back this splintered Hashid, essentially because these factions are led by the Imams surrounding him and advising him. Sistani knows he can no longer retain his credibility if the hierarchy of his sect has distanced itself from him.

Military confrontations between the splintered factions has Not yet materialized, except in organizing vast demonstrations for one reason or others.

Iran is a stable and well organized nation and patient and plans for the longer term. As an example, the well established Hezbollah in Lebanon.

It is no wonder why US/Israel felt it urgent to assassinate Suleiman and Al Mouhandess: the colonial powers wanted to give a breathing space for the Iraqi tribal (3asha2er) groupuscules to gather their alliances before it is too late.

This phase is a head on confrontation be

More likely, the Hashid associated with Iran will prevail as more social confrontations will spread.

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December 2020

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