Adonis Diaries

Archive for the ‘Bi-Weekly report’ Category

Road map of a civil war: (June 1982-1985)

Posted on October 22, 2008

The third phase (June 1982-1985) started with the invasion of Israel to Lebanon and entering its capital Beirut for two weeks. It ended by the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Sidon and East Sidon to Jezzine in the South.

Israel withdrew its forces in phases from various parts of the lands it occupied. 

The tactics of Israel were to allow the Christian “Lebanese Forcesto infiltrate into mixed regions and let the factions fight it out among themselves when Israel withdraws.

These tactics started a civil war in the Chouf (Druze district) that ended with the evacuation of all Christian villages, and the follow-up civil war in the region of East Sidon that ended with the evacuation of all Christian towns toward Jezzine (under Israel occupation) or East Beirut.

Israel continued its occupation of a major part of South Lebanon until its total defeat in year 2000 (over 20 years of occupation) and the withdrawal of its forces without negotiation or conditions.

This phase witnessed the evacuation of the armed Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) from Beirut to Tunisia, the landing of UN troops constituted from US, France, and Italy into Beirut, the assassination of elected President Bashir Gemayel (before his official inauguration), and the gruesome slaughter of the Palestinian refugees in the camps of Sabra and Shatila in West Beirut , contrary to the guarantees for their safety offered by the USA, France and Israel.  

More than two thousands civilians (Palestinians and Lebanese) were killed within two days and nights, the nights of the camps fully lighted by Israel to resume the slaughter hood.

The multinational forces composed of mainly French and American forces vacated Lebanon after two successful suicide car bomb attacks on their headquarters., leaving hundreds of soldiers from the US and France dead.  

The Shiaa party “Amal” was split, and Hezbollah was created

Battles between these two factions will intensify with Hezbollah taking over the control of Dahieh (South Beirut) and “Amal” (lead by current head of the Parliament Nabih Berri) retaining the administration of what is left of South Lebanon.

Amine Gemmayel was elected President of the Republic with Israel backing. 

The peace treaty with Israel that President Gemayel was negotiating failed miserably in May 17, 1983 and the Lebanese army successfully checked the advances of the Syrian forces in Souk Gharb in the Aley region and which could have left the Presidential Palace exposed at the mercy of direct artillery fires.

The relocation movements within Beirut were the consequences of Syria’s supported militias like “Amal” attacking the Palestinian camps in and around Beirut.

This war against the remaining Palestinian strongholds in West Beirut started in the summer of 1985 and lasted for 5 years, which enfeebled “Amal” (the main Syrian supporter) militias militarily and politically.

Hezbollah was set to broaden its base in the Shia population and become the sole resistance power against Israeli occupation of part of Lebanon, after Syria Hafez Assad prohibited the leftist Lebanese forces to participate in that national and legitimate resistance.


Bi-Weekly Report (#20) on Lebanon and the Middle East (May 3, 2009)

Israel would like to play games with the US Administration in order to delay tough decisions for the establishment of a Palestinian State that everyone has been yearning for.

Israel is trying to focus the attention on Iran but there are no takers. 

The US Administration knows that there are No peace treaties with the Palestinians or Syria unless the regional powers are satisfied and consenting; mainly Iran, Egypt, Saudi Kingdom, and Turkey.

Iran is the easiest of the roadblocks among the four major regional powers because Iran would rather focus its investment on the social and economical issues in Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria.

The most difficult power to satisfy would be Egypt because it lost all credibilities for making any difference in the Arab World and in Africa after Gamal Abdel Nasser: Egypt is holding staunchly to its last Palestinian cards, since the huge weight in the Arab World that Gamal Abdel Nasser created for Egypt was dilapidated and used up since Sadate in 1970.

In fact, if a Palestinian State is voted on in the UN, then Egypt would have to turn to its main responsibility that is Sudan. Sudan is a real hot potato and an international focus: Egypt has neglected Sudan for so long that it has no real leverage over there.

Saudi Kingdom comprehends that exporting and proselytizing its Wahhabi sect will come to an abrupt stop if peace and stability reign in the States of the Sunni Muslims:  The Wahhabi salafist sect relies mainly on religious extremism in the Arab World which is fueled by considering Israel and Iran as nemesis to the Muslims.

Turkey is enjoying its new found role of mediator and would rather that this exercise last longer to convince France that Turkey is a critical factor for the European Union political effectiveness in the Middle East.

The triangle of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan is a very hot potato for Turkey to focus its attention on: Turkey would rather not alienate Russia at this junction before it secures a place in the EU.

Israel has been trying since the coming of Barack Obama to immerse the new US Administration in the recurring troubles between India and Pakistan and comploting terrorists attack in both States: the purpose was to divert the US from pressuring Israel to deliver on its promises for facilitating the establishment of a recognized Palestinian State.

With spring season, the Pakistani Army is making good progress inside the rebellious extremist Taliban type districts within Pakistan such as the Valley of Sawat and with the support of US military shipments.

I was having a nap around 4 p.m. this Wednesday when I overheard that the four military officers, Jamil Al Sayyed (former Security Director), Raymond Azar (military intelligence), Mustafa Hamdan (Presidential guard), and Ali Haj (director of the internal forces) will be released this afternoon after the special International Court of Justice for former late Rafic Hariri realized that it had no legal indictments on any one of the Generals.

There will be strong pressures for four judges to resign because they covered up information and detained the officers for 44 months without any kinds of indictments for political reasons; mainly the focus will be on the judges Said Mirza and Sakr Sakr.

Many heads will fall and the government is in hot water, especially Seniora PM, Saad Hariri, Walid Jumblatt, Samir Geagea, and particularly deputy Marwan Hamady for fabricating false testimonies by false witnesses.

After four years of investigation into the assassination of Rafic Hariri the International Court has nothing in its file for indicting anyone. 

Nasr Allah, the Secretary General of Hezbollah has suggested that a new venue be focused on; mainly the Israeli connection because they had the interest and the means for this major upheaval in Lebanon.  Nasr Allah proclaimed that no more indictments or imprisonment would be facilitated before thorough analysis of the proofs with the UN Court.

Jamil Al Sayyed had explained that their political indictment was a routine behavior of every government since the Independence of Lebanon.

The security responsibility of any government starts with the president of the Republic, then the Prime Minister, then the Head of the Parliament, then the ministers, then the deputies and lastly the security forces. 

All the massacres, treasury stealing, financial black boxes, and insecurity of the State are done by the politicians and based on their policies. 

Once the politicians find it convenient to reconcile their differences it is the officers of the security and military forces that are targeted as scapegoats.

Next Tuesday the highest court of judges of Lebanon will meet and come up with a credible explanation for shirking its independence as the third authority and hopefully major heads should pay the price for ruining the credibility of our justice system.

Mass control, masses on the move, colonial powers interventions…

Posted on May 16, 2011

Random violence is the most applied scare tactics by governments, organized crime associations, fanatic religious sects…: Citizens have no way of comprehending what’s the problem and why they are dying, and what they have done to suffer this insanity…

In oligarchic and dictatorial regimes, mass uprising is far more terrifying:  The authority have fooled themselves for so long that they indeed comprehend the mood of their people, and they are proven wrong.

Strong “democratic” institutions are Not necessarily that impressed of your particular “free” opinions, expressions, or a few gathering citizens...

Strong “democratic” institutions are somehow more scared if the few well-informed citizens are engaged in disseminating their pieces of intelligence to wider public.

Strong “democratic” institutions, and any political system, are mostly afraid of masses on the move.  Their goal is to keep the people in a passive state, and waiting for directives and guidelines through thousands of subtle means that they have total control over.

What worry most the power-to-be are people on the move.

They don’t care if this movement is within the right direction of their wishes and desires: they are simply scared of active citizens marching on, because the end result cannot be controlled or forecasted accurately.

That is why, in critical periods of unrest, because of financial or economic difficulties, the government and its various branches rely on rumors that insinuate to the general public that the government is in complete power of control over the behavior of their citizens, and that the citizens have to be fully confident in the decisions and activities of the government.

This fear technique works most of the time to cow the public into passive status.

Karl Jasper wrote in his book “The German Culpability”:

“The one who remained passive knows that he is morally guilty, every time he failed to respond to an action for protecting the threatened citizens, for reducing injustice, and for resisting infamy”

I think people confuse predictive models of human behavior with models for evaluating the performance of behavior modifications.

Institutions of power know how to modify behavior for a period, which is their main power.  Institutions sublet research institutions of “scientists” in statistical design, survey, poll taking, quantitative psychologists, social scientists, political “analysts”, and so forth in order to present models that would corroborate the desires of the fund givers.

I doubt that any model for predicting individual human behavior can outperform the odds of a coin flipping mechanism: Prediction evaluation models target a collective of sample people.  What the models are predicting are the behavior of a restricted sample of people, who were subjected with modification treatments, by subtle means unknown to the selected subjects, but obviously known to the authorities.

The government policies are to present the image of omnipresence and omnipotent.

Once masses get on the move, the authority is scared: It can no longer predict the actual behavior of the people.

Democratic institutions are confident that, if the masses relent for a period in marching and demonstrating, they will be able to analyze the wishes of the people and counter-attack by false dissemination of information and pieces of intelligence:  The authority have large sway on the media.

In oligarchic and dictatorial regimes, mass uprising is far more terrifying:  The authority have fooled themselves for so long that they indeed comprehend the mood of their people, and they are proven wrong.

Institutions for collecting data on regular basis, and analyzing them on a timely fashion, are basically not available in developing countries, or believed not be of any serious benefit.

The only reactions in developing States are dealing with the people on the march with brutal scare tactics:  A funeral for a “martyr” of the people generates more gathering of people and a chain reaction gets in action.

Many non-violent Arab uprising were successful because:

First, the mass organization managed to control the violent elements by mass peer pressure such as in Tunisia and Egypt and

Second, the mass uprising were sudden and had taken the authority by surprise to react accordingly.

The other Arab uprising in Libya, Yemen, Bahrain, Syria… the violent elements managed to take over the masses for a period, enough for the authorities to give the image of applying the mechanism of LAW and Order that “democratic regimes” comprehend very well.

Note 1:  The ultimate single purpose for any authority is “Modifying human behavior to coincide with a set priority of natural passions, for a period of time, which suit the environmental and social conditions of the power-to-be.”

Bi-Weekly Report (#21) on the Middle East and Lebanon (May 9, 2009)

The US Administration keeps flopping between the policy of a peace treaty (Israel/ Syria) first, or a Palestinian homeland in the Near East. 

So far, the US Administration has changed priority more than once in a single month and the US delegates are cruising the regions for a hint and a suggestion while carrying all kinds of tentative projects. 

The energumen Israeli foreign affairs minister, investigated for criminal activities by the Israeli police, is visiting a few European States to confirm his opposition for a Palestinian State. 

Thus, the US is pleasuring Israel by shifting its priority to (Israel/Syria) peace treaty first.

Anyone of these projects to take off there need to satisfy conditions of a few powerful regional powers.  This is no longer a State to State treaty but a regional status of dignity that no usurper is to enjoy advantages by military forces.

For Syria there are Iran and Turkey that should cooperate fully and sign their agreements. 

Iran would First pressure the US, to handle the nuclear arm policy equitably, since Israel owns one too many nuclear arms; since the sixties’, and Second, that the treaty preserves unconditionally the sovereignty of Syria in the Golan Heights.

Turkey would insists that France drops her veto to a potential attachment of Turkey to the European Union. Otherwise, why Turkey would go at such length and effort to get re-immersed in regional quagmires?  (It is Not probable that Turkey would desist from expanding its political strategy, even if promised integrated to EU)

The other condition of Turkey is that Muslim Syria is not pressured into “losing face” and thus, exacerbates the sense of humiliation and desperation that the Arab World has been subjugated to for centuries.

One policy that the US Administration has decided on and is executing with the support of the Pakistani army and government is to defeating the military power of the Taliban style ideology in northern Pakistan. 

Pakistan is the main source of instability in order to re-arrange the Greater Middle East stability

I hope that the Barack Administration has already extended its military policy in Pakistan into including the social and economic stability and viability of the Pakistani State.  Pakistan is worth heavy investment in money and time until the Taliban (Wahhabi sect) ideology prevalent in Saudi Kingdom is contained and controlled.

For the Palestinian homestate to take off there are Egypt and Saudi Kingdom to be satisfied, assuming that Syria has signed a peace treaty with Israel (Not a chance in the foreseeable future)

Egypt would First insist that its enjoys the status of the most preferred nation in Gaza, kind of practical mandate if not diplomatically; and

Second, that Israel relinquishes any kinds of controls in the Palestinian State that Egypt might be denied, and

Third, (during the Mubarak dictatorship) that Hamas is not to be the most powerful faction in the Palestinian government and Parliament: Mubarak understands that the “Muslim Brotherhood” party in Egypt has more legitimacy among the population than his regime.

Saudi Kingdom would insists that the clerics to the Mosques that it invested in building or maintaining in Palestine be hired by the Wahhabi sect and answering directly to the “fatwas” emanating from the Capital Riad.

The President of Lebanon, Michel Suleiman, has declared yesterday that after the Parliamentary election in June 7 the Dawha agreement will have been satisfied and the Taef Constitution will be applied: The winning coalition in the parliament will govern and the losers will oppose. 

The leader General Michel Aoun of the Tayyar al Horr (Change and Reform Party), and currently the dominant “Christian” representative in the parliament, has been promoting the advent of the Third Republic to replace the governing system imposed on Lebanon since 1993 during the Syrian mandate and after the withdrawal of the Syrian troops in 2005. 

The polls favor the opposition (Tayyar, Hezbollah, and Shia Amal of Nabih Berri) to gain 65 deputies out of 120. 

Michel Aoun has decided to run in the district of Jezzine (a Christian enclave) with his list of 3 candidates when all the attempts for an agreement with Berri failed. 

Berri is the Chairman of the Parliament and the leader of the Shia Amal Party that represented the Shia during the civil war but was supplanted by Hezbollah. 

Berri understands that his weight and standing in the political structure are solely based on heading the parliament and all his machinations are to securing this post that he chaired for over 20 years now.

Regardless of the winning coalition, the Taif Agreement will be re-applied in its entirety with various success and time span.

For example, a second confessional Parliament of the 19 official religious sects will be formed so that the popular Parliament will be elected devoid of sectarianism and hopefully according to a new law based on relative percentages (nisbia) and not on majority.

If the Tayyar returns with additional gains into the Parliament then the application of Taef Constitution will accelerate with modification after substantial lapse of time such as providing the President of Republic additional leverage and imposing time constraint on the government (mainly the Prime Minister) to ratifying decision as it is imposed on the President.

In case the Tayyar loses then a dangerous cycle await Lebanon with end results of sharing power not on the basis of 50/50 between the Muslim sects and the Christian sects, but on the basis of three major sects, the Shia (the most populous), the Sunni, and a combination of the Maronite and Christian Orthodox.

Lebanon is a precarious State depending on many foreign interests in the Middle East and not specifically for the sake of Lebanon.   

In any case, a stable Lebanon is connected with a stable Syria that is satisfied with Lebanon’s foreign administration of relations. The fundamental interests of Syria cannot be circumvented and supersede the USA if Lebanon is to enjoy security and stability.

Bi-Weekly Report (#24) on the Middle East and Lebanon (May 28, 2009)

The weekly French “Courrier International” failed to do its job on analyzing Syria’s policies. 

Instead of investigating and doing leg works it opted to rely on the Washington Post and Now Lebanon, totally biased against anything related to Syria, for spreading its nonsense. 

This weekly publishing is repeating the old regurgitated stories of what the successive US Administrations want from Syria with respect to facilitating the job of US military presence in Iraq.

As usual, the catchy “Damascus does Not get it” and “Could we have confidence in President Bashar Assad? ” summarizes the topic. As if the job and responsibilities of President Assad is to cajole and obey the US dicta for nothing in return, such as the Golan Heights that was captured by Israel since 1973.

The Washington Post and supposed “reporter” Karen De Young would like us to believe that the increase of “terrorist activities” in Iraq and in Mossoul last month can be linked to the laxity of Syria’s border patrols. 

It seems that Al Qaeda has been active shipping “martyr terrorists” from northern African Arab States and Saudi Kingdom to blow up Iraq Shia sect citizens.

What about the other sects, such as the minority Christian sects?

The report stated that the Iraqi border patrols cannot do effectively their jobs because of lack of carburant. The Iraqi government has a depleted budget because of low oil prices on the international market and thus the border patrols drive along the vast borders with Syria, 15 days out of 30. Thus, Syria is to be blamed for the US insufficient funding for borders control.

The monthly “Le Monde Diplomatique” did its job concerning Albania and Kosovo. The US Administration is pushing to finish quickly the fast highway linking Pristina (the Capital of Kosovo) to the Adriatic Sea at the Albanian seaport of Durres.

Apparently, the NATO (OTAN) needs this strategic highway so that the 5th fleet could discharge military hardware and soldiers. 

Close to the highway in Kosovo there is the largest US Camp Bondsteel military base by the town of Urosevac. 

Close to the highway in the town of Kukes in Albania the US has finished a functional airport used by military cargo and denied access to civilian use and at the expense of the Albanian tax payers. 

The story boils down to a Greek bank Alpha lent the Albanian government 300 millions Euros (guaranteed by the US) to build the super highway. The trick is that 65% of the Albanian budget is reserved for the infrastructure ministry and 75% of the budget of this ministry is allocated to this super highway, which means about 50% of the total budget of the ministry is allocated to this highway, just to satisfy US military logistics. 

The bombshell is that the US  Bechtel multinational will reap 44% profit on the cost of this super highway.

The newly “independent” States of Kosovo, Montenegro, and Macedonia are quickly becoming the dumping ground for the NATO and the European Union economic, military, and environmental policies.

I watched the highly informative interview of retired General Jamil Al Sayyed with Maggie Farah on the OTV channel.  Jameel Al Sayyed was released recently from 4 years of detention with No formal court cases after the International Tribunal judged his imprisonment illegal and ordered him out, along with 3 other security high level officers.

General Al Sayyed returned two day ago from France after resuming his depositions on Millis’ fabricated climate for Al Sayyed unjustified detention. Millis is the former investigator to the assassination of Rafic Hariri) and Johnny Abdou, former retired Lebanon military intelligence chief, participated in that fabricated story.  

Al Sayyed will also work out the courts in Germany with respect to Millis.  Al Sayyed is a highly interesting character and a well spoken intelligent and honest personality.

Al Sayyed said that it was the Lebanese officials who drew the Syrian counterparts into suspect transactions and corruptions.  Although every political leader in Lebanon has dealing with foreign States, Al Sayyed lambasted Saad Hariri and Samir Geagea for their incapacity in using proper “valves” that can shut down foreign interests into destabilizing Lebanon.

 The German daily Der Spiegel reported excerpts from internet blogs posted by Syrian dissidents six months ago claiming that a special team of Hezbollah masterminded the assassination of late Lebanon Rafic Hariri PM. 

The timing of that report, which the International Tribunal denied any knowledge, was evidence that the real perpetrators were scared shit of the victory of the opposition in Lebanon at the next Parliamentary election on June 7.  It meant that the opposition is not about to let the assassination case linger any longer and will pursue its own investigation or force the International Tribunal to move swiftly and close the doors to further political manipulations of that case.

What exacerbated the political climate is that Lebanon has started dismantling systematically Israel’s spy webs and dangerous intelligence pieces are accumulating relative to Israel involvement in many of the string of assassination cases in Lebanon since the murder of Rafic Hariri.in 2005. 

The US Vice President Biden visited Lebanon for 6 hours before the publishing of the report and met with the leaders of the government alliances.  Lebanon has to expect the worst every time a US official pay us visit to give orders that Lebanon cannot satisfy.

Thanks to Walid Jumblatt, one of the principal allies to the government, he quickly and adamantly lambasted this chimerical and fabricated report and proclaimed that the report was intended to draw Lebanon into another civil war between the Shia and the Sunni Muslim sects. 

Saad Hariri (leader of the Future movement) and Seniora PM were forced into suspect silence; proof that they were aware of the plan that backfired on them, a plan that is backed by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Israel, and the USA.

Nothing changed: Bi-Weekly report (#28)

Posted on:August 7, 2009

Walid Jumblatt has exited from the March 14 alliance (opposing Hezbollah and those seeking Syria support or March 8 alliance) two days ago: he has 11 deputies in the Lebanese Parliament.

Simple arithmetic shows that the previous majority in the Parliament is now the minority. The designated Saad Hariri PM failed to form a government in over 45 days while he was the leader of the majority. 

The President of the Republic should recall all the political blocks to designate another person for the job.

Walid Jumblatt exit is not solely based on political divergences but mainly on his apprehension that the delay in forming the government is encouraging Israel to start another wave of political assassinations to destabilize Lebanon in this extended political vacuum

Actually, for two months Israel has been escalating its war threats in frequent speeches and in actions along Lebanon’s south borders.  After Jumblatt split from his previous alliance, Israel toned down its threats.

Israel never dared launched its frequent offensive wars on any people that is united under unity national governments.

Walid Jumblatt knows that in matter of Lebanon internal security, in the balance, Syria out weight all the world States diplomacy combined.

There was a period of an entire year after the assassination of Rafic Hariri in 2005 where Syria seemed on the defensive and refrained from interfering in Lebanon’s endemic problems. This is when the alliance of March 14 was created to salvage the international court and make sure that Syria withdrew from Lebanon.

For three years, this March 14 alliance went as far as condemning Hezbollah defensive war against Israel in July 12, 2006 and sucking up to Bush Junior and Condalisa. 

This period is witnessing a major shift of rapprochement toward Syria.  Saudi Kingdom policies are becoming closer to Syria’s policies than Egypt of Mubarak.  Mubarak has been keeping the formation of our government hostage to his senile policies. 

The fact is Egypt under Mubarak has retreated from the “Arab” States issues, is out of the Arab world and out of Africa too.  Moubarak is not even able to get the Palestinian Hamas and Fatah to agree on a few common denominators.

Saad Hariri has lost the confidence of the Lebanese people as the appropriate PM at this junction. Hariri squandered all the good will and patience that the opposition was willing to extend.  Hariri opted to wait for external powers to agree among themselves, instead of uniting Lebanon under a unity national government. (Nothing changed in his attitude: he is still waiting for foreign powers to give him the Green Light to form a government in 2021)

I coined a quote: “You want to go into politics in Lebanon? Warnings! Observe Saad Hariri. First you don’t think much, then your mind quickly slides into deep coma.”

Note 1: Lately, with the Syrian uprising in 2011, Walid crossed the Rubicon and sided squarely with the rebels: He hates the Assad family because the late Hafez Assad assassinated Walid father, Kamal Jumblatt.  The Druze in Syria didn’t respond to Walid’s calls to join the insurrection…

Note 2: In the current government of Mikati PM (2012), Walid is boasting that he is the power broker between the two majority blocks in the government, but is mostly siding with Mikati and the opposition March 14 alliance of the Mubarak.

Sunday, June 7, 2009 Election Day in Lebanon

I got up at 4 a.m. on Sunday June 7, 2009; it is Election Day for the Parliament in Lebanon.

I wrote and published the post “I have a position: I am voting today”.

As my parents were ready we drove around 8:15 to one of the three election centers in the town of Beit-Chabab. Our center was located in the previous private school that the municipality has purchased five years ago and didn’t move in yet.

This is the first time in Lebanon that election is done in one day: Parliamentary elections were performed in two successive Sundays until the last election proved that parties with heavier financial muscles could regroup, focus, and swing elections to their advantages by chastising parties that didn’t stick to the alliance terms in the previous Election Sunday.

I was shocked by the long line that did not move. The army was positioned outside the perimeter and the internal security forces within the enclosed place.

You had first to exhibit your ID to enter the only entrance/exit “door”.  You wait for a security officer to call on a range of numbers corresponding to your family civil record.   The elder people were given priority and my parents voted within half an hour.

The urn assigned to my category was very slow in processing voters. I sat and ate a loaf of “mankoush bi zaatar” that one party was distributing. I asked my parents to hitchhike home.  I waited for an hour and a half and the line never budged. I lost any hope for my turn to come in the morning.

I returned home hoping to come back after lunch for the line to get moving.  Those who arrived at 7 a.m. made it nicely. My brother-in-law, a retired military officer, voted for the first time as well as one of his eligible daughters.

I returned at 1:30 after lunch to the voting urns and had to wait another hour before I managed to vote.  There were too many voters for the reduced number of urns (kalam ektira3). Citizens complained that they lined up as if they were receiving rations “i3asha/e7ssan”.

General Michel Aoun of the Tayyar Party has warned a couple of months ago on the strong possibility of this problem and had suggested that election be resumed on two successive days.

The opposition claimed that the slow process was intentional to discourage their voters from exercising patience.  Apparently, the slow processing of voter lines is due mainly, in addition to the first reason, to the decrease in numbers of urns because of shortage in personnel.

By law, any voter within the enclosed voting area was eligible to vote after 7 p.m.  Dozens of election monitoring groups from around the world were gathered in Lebanon to take notes of the proceedings; the groups of ex-US President Jimmy Carter, the European Union, and the Arab League were present weeks before that well “observed” and critical day.

News are that over 100 thousands Lebanese immigrants flew in to participate in the election process.

Monday Morning, June 8, 2009

I got up at 4 a.m. and watched TV for any crumbs of news on the election results and removed to my study to read.  Official results will not be in before noon but I got a good idea of the trend.

Our neighborhood and the districts of Metn and Kesrouan are very calm and not because people are not up.  The government coalition parties that usually are the loudest and the most trouble makers have lost the election in these two districts.

Unofficial results indicate that the government allies received a majority of 67 deputies to 57 for the opposition.

Actually, the results were already known before midnight.  The minister of the interior Ziad Baroud had announced previously not to expect any official results before late afternoon.

My contention is that, in addition to waiting for formal arrival of evidences, the minister of the interior was asked to delay official results for 18 hours.  The purpose of that delay is first, to permit negotiations for swapping deputies from losers to winners as the implicit entente of the Doha agreement demanded, so that the main leaders represented there will re-enter Parliament and second, so that the difference between opposition and government coalition deputies would not exceed more than 5 deputies.

The opposition coalition major defeats were in the districts of Batroun, Koura, Zahle, and Ashrafieh (Beirut 1).  The government coalition lost Baabda and Zgharta districts.

The main leaders on both sides are winners; Saad Hariri, Michel Aoun, Walid Jumblatt, and Hezbollah.

Thus, any government has to be formed of the three major blocks representing the three main religious sects (Maronite, Shiaa, and Sunni) with practically even power politically in the parliament.

Basically, the Tayyar of Michel Aoun has increased the number of its deputies from 20 to over 27; the Tayyar gained the leader Suleiman Frangieh of Zgharta and lost Skaf of Zahle.

Michel Aoun strengthened his unchallenged Maronite leadership in Mount Lebanon (the district of Jubail, Kesrouan, Metn, Baabda, and Jezzine). The block of General Michel Aoun represents two third of the Maronite deputies and 50% of the Christian deputies and an overwhelming popular support in all Lebanon.

Hezbollah gained the strategic district of Baabda because it is an extension to its headquarters in south Beirut (Dahiyat).

Consequently, the resistance had secured internal political backing of all Mount Lebanon to the southern borders. Obviously, Hezbollah prevails militarily and Lebanon policy of defense cannot circumvent Hezbollah’s concerns for its internal security.

Saad Hariri emerged as the unchallenged leader of the Sunni sect in Beirut, Saida, North Lebanon, and the central Bekaa Valley.  Fouad Siniora PM got a seat in Saida.

The main losers are the President of the Republic, Michel Suleiman, because the opposition coalition badly defeated the President’s implicit list of candidates in the district of Jubail.

The Maronite Patriarch lost because he can no longer claim any political weight in Mount Lebanon since he publicly supported the parties challenging Michel Aoun.  Thus, Michel Aoun is practically the political leader of the Maronite sect according to Lebanon’s caste system.

One fact stands out in this tough election: it is my contention that the sacerdotal caste of the Christian Greek Orthodox did its best to challenge Michel Aoun as the pre-eminent representative of all the Christians in Lebanon.

The Greek Orthodox clergy played politics big time by defeating the Tayyar in Koura, Betroun, and Ashrafieh.  I am not worried about this positioning at this phase because the Greek Orthodox citizens are the staunchest Lebanese patriots against our main enemy Israel: Most of the secular and national founders of political parties were Greek Orthodox. 

Michel Aoun will have to temper his zeal and negotiate with this Christian sect as an equal.  In any event, Saad Hariri will owe the Christian Orthodox big time for the next four years otherwise he is doomed to lose the majority in next Parliamentary election.

The Christian Armenians could swing victory only in the Metn district because they failed in Ashrafieh and Zahle to make any difference facing the outnumbered Sunni voters.

Actually, the 4,000 Sunni voters in Koura reversed a sure win for the opposition to a defeat by less than one thousand votes.

The opposition lost the district of Zahle because the government had transferred the registration of over 25 thousands of Sunnis to Zahle in preparation for this election. This election was an exacerbation of Sunni confessional rallying cry as the other religious sects were distancing from confessional rhetoric.  Saudi Kingdom monarchy is deeply immersed in an ugly and dirty confessional battle.

Monday Evening

Ziad Baroud returned partial official results of 15 out of 26 districts (kada2) by noon and a full declaration by 6 p.m.

The trick that there were discussions going on for swapping deputies did not take off in Lebanon’s archaic confessional political system.  For example, I considered that at least two losing traditional deputies in Zahle would be declared winners in return for two traditional losers in the Metn District.  Lebanon election experienced high turn out averaging over 60%.

Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah delivered a speech by 8:30 p.m. He reminded the citizens of the lies of the government coalition leaders who used scare tactics claiming that the resistance would use its military power to affect election procedures and results.

In any case, if the new political power sharing is to take off then any discussion of Hezbollah military reality should be restricted to the special conference table on defense strategies.

Iran is having its Presidential election on June 12, 2009.

The candidates Ahmadinejad and Moussawi faced off in a television debate.  Moussawi suckered to the public opinion of the western nations’ demands: he is speaking as a foreign affairs minister and not a candidate to win the presidency.

The attitude of appeasing the western public opinions is considered very disgusting in Iran and not the characteristic of a vast “Empire”.

The largest, widest, and lengthiest military exercise conducted by Israel for 5 days and which started on May 31 faltered and was a failure. 

The Israeli citizens did not respond as expected and went on to their daily routine as if nothing is happening, regardless of the loud and frequent siren alarms.

Those five days were a holiday and not of any serious exigencies.  The Israelis on the Lebanese borders were the least concerned.  The message was clear and louder than the siren alarms “Governments of Israel, we want peace.  We no longer believe than security should take priority over peace treaty.  For 61 years you have driven us hard to countless pre-emptive and expansionist wars. Enough is enough.  We paid dearly for mindless and losing priorities and we want your policy to do the right thing.  We want peace, period”

President Barack Obama has to deliver something tangible in the Middle East and very soon, and not six months from now as he is planning.

Periods of sweet talking with nothing tangible in return are gone.  The Palestinian Statehood is due now!  The return of the Golan Heights to Syria is due now!  Direct negotiations with Palestinian Hamas and Lebanon Hezbollah are due now!  Stabilizing Pakistan is due now!  The return of the Shebaa Farms and the Hills of Kfar Shouba to Lebanon is due now!

A specific schedule for the return of the Palestinian refugees in Lebanon to Palestine is due now!

Why my urgency to resolving decades of roadblocks in the Middle East?

Simple: the Middle East has been steadily catching on to extremist confessional attitudes as the absolution of Israel’s horrors and genocides has been the trademark of the western nations.

Lebanon is catching on quickly to isolationist confessional extremism and if Lebanon is no longer a viable experiment for democracy, then the USA and Europe will have no one to blame but themselves for laxity in executing and enforcing what is the right thing to do in this region.

May  2009 Bi-Weekly Report (#22) on the Middle East and Lebanon

 The US Administration and France of Sarkozi vetoed a resolution condemning Israel’s genocide in Gaza.  Obama and Sarkozy consider that genocide practices are good for the stability and progress of the world. 

I understand that Sarkozy is in a difficult position in France and must rely on the flimsy support of the Zionist lobby in France on ground that somehow he is Jewish by a convoluted way. 

It is getting clear that Sarkozi is a Zionist who believes that Jewishness is an ethnic entity, a sort of a race and not a religion.  If that is the case, then why Sarkozi is still President of a nation who claims to separate religion from state’s functions?  

Why Sarkozi does not relocate to Hungry, the origin state of his parents?  Why does not Sarkozi transfer to Israel proper and live in a colony, a land usurped from the Palestinian people? President Sarkozy excuses the atrocities of the Israeli State and refuses a whole nation such as Turkey to adhere to the European Union on grounds that it did not fully satisfy human rights conditions expected by the civilized world of the EU.

Maybe if Sarkozi ponder a little on his genealogy then he might discover that his grand parents were Janissaries (Inkisharieh) in the Ottoman Empire army.

President Barack Obama doesn’t get it. 

The world community has also elected him to apply the promises during his electoral campaigns or what people wished he meant for a stable and peaceful world. 

Barack Obama doesn’t get it; his Administration is sidetracking him into redundant and Non effective messages and actions.  Obama should know that hate crimes, genocides, “collateral” civilian damages, apartheid behavior and covert racism are not behaviors to be swept under carpets and hope that they will be taken care of by time.

Barack Obama doesn’t get it that Zionists are not to be cajoled and given more time to sober up and start acting as democratic and the rational nations wish they do. 

Zionists will not abide by the United Nations guidelines and resolutions through diplomatic gimmicks; no resolute actions are not about to convince them to change their racist and apartheid behaviors.  

How about President Obama orders Hillary Clinton to condemn Israel barbaric actions once in the UN? 

The world community is waiting haplessly for a sign of real change of position by using the UN as the international body that send the right and proper message for civilized codes of behavior.

So far Barack Obama has been a big mouth with no teeth to make Zionists comprehend that he meant to establish a Palestinian State; to free the Palestinian people in the ghetto of Gaza from misery, famine, and lost opportunities to join the civilized nations.

Barack Obama has been a big mouth with No teeth to actually liberate Syria from this economic embargo that is hurting the civilians and on this humiliating apartheid black list of nations, as if the Syrians are any worse than the Israelis who have been continuously demonstrating that they are the real terrorists in masterminding the most abject activities around the world.

Time is running out on Obama to prove that he is a President of real change that the world would be proud to accept as their leader for change.  If you cannot send a strong message to even the Zionist lobbies in the USA then how will you navigate world problems that require global resolutions?

Barack Obama is to meet Israel Netanyahu.  I would be highly disappointed if Obama cows for just one second.  Iran is not the problem.  It is this ideological apartheid virus applied in a tiny State and constantly cajoled and condoned by the western societies that can spread havoc. 

The Pakistani army is supposedly making a breakthrough by killing one thousand Taliban fighters in the Suwat region.  Nothing has changed; war generates war and Obama is going to deal with another quagmire for the rest of his tenure. 

Leaders always have good intentions of compensating economically ravaged regions that they contributed in setting aflame.  It is not by war that good intentions are attained.  Millions of civilians have vacated the area into refugee tents and many thousands are simmering with feelings of revenge. 

There are no people worse than others: there are people who could not enjoy institutional opportunities to diversify their perspectives.

Another war is reaching an end: the Tamil forces in Sri Lanka are giving up the fight.  Thousands of civilians are in refugee camps.  The Tamil Party is a nasty separatist and apartheid “Christian” movement that learned terrorist tactics from the masters in Israel and in former apartheid South Africa State. 

It is hoped that the western powers let the Columbus government deal equitably with the aftermath and not add fuel to an ignited situation.  The State of Sri Lanka is going to need huge infusion of economical and financial aids if the consequences of a civil war are to heal peacefully. (China filled the economic void, at a long-term price)

Friday, Hassan Nasrallah of Hezbollah delivered a powerful speech during the presentation of university diplomas. He said that the private communication system of Hezbollah is the most important tool that the resistance had to defeat Israel.

But the Lebanese government had decided on May 5, 2008 to rob the resistance of her potent power.  The leaders of the government of Seniora PM, Saad Hariri, Walid Jumblatt, and Samir Geagea coordinated well the project with Israel and the USA.

Thousands of Lebanese were lured from the districts of Akkar and the Bekka to Beirut and wait in safe places packed with arms and ammunitions.   Jumblatt had previously publicly proclaimed these facts and Nasr Allah confirmed it.

Nasr Allah divulged that the government plan was to initiate a temporary civil war in Beirut and then ask the world community for peace keeping forces in Beirut.

Those citizens financially lured by the government to come to Beirut were not told the purpose of their summons and when they realized that they are to fight Hezbollah then they withdrew at the first attack.  The Lebanese consider the Hezbollah resistance as the pride of Lebanon for defeating Israel after 33 days of barbaric invasion in 2006.

Saad Hariri had vouched that the Mustaqbal movement will never forget May 7, 2008 as the sky is blue.  Nasr Allah replied that May 7 was meant for any government never to forget the consequences if it recklessly repeats foolish decisions without Hezbollah consent.

 General Michel Aoun of the Tayyar urged his supporters not to be sidetracked by those Christian candidates claiming to be neutral or supporting the President of the Republic.  The objective is to win as many parliamentary seats as is needed to activate change and reform.

Note: Israel is conducting on May 31 the largest military maneuvers in its 61 years on Lebanon’s borders and the government thinks that it does not concern Lebanon

Bi-Weekly Report (#20) on Lebanon and the Middle East (May 3, 2009)

Israel would like to play games with the US Administration in order to delay tough decisions for the establishment of a Palestinian State that everyone has been yearning for.

Israel is trying to focus the attention on Iran but there are no takers.  The US Administration knows that there are no peace treaties with the Palestinians or Syria unless the regional powers are satisfied and consenting; mainly Iran, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey.

Iran is the easiest of the roadblocks among the four major regional powers because Iran would rather focus its investment on the social and economical issues in Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria.

The most difficult power to satisfy would be Egypt because it lost all credibilities for making any difference in the Arab World and in Africa; Egypt is holding staunchly to its last Palestinian cards since the huge weight in the Arab World that Gamal Abdel Nasser created for Egypt was dilapidated and used up since Sadate in 1970.

In fact, if a Palestinian State is voted on in the UN, then Egypt would have to turn to its main responsibility that is Sudan. Sudan is a real hot potato and an international focus; Egypt has neglected Sudan for so long that it has no real leverage over there.

Saudi Kingdom comprehends that exporting and proselytizing its Wahhabi sect will come to an abrupt stop if peace and stability reign in the States of the Sunni Muslims.  The Wahhabi salafist sect relies mainly on religious extremism in the Arab World which is fueled by considering Israel and Iran as nemesis to the Moslems.

Turkey is enjoying its new found role of mediator and would rather that this exercise last longer to convince France that Turkey is a critical factor for the European Union political effectiveness in the Middle East.

The triangle of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan is a very hot potato for Turkey to focus its attention on: Turkey would rather not alienate Russia at this junction before it secures a place in the EU.

Israel has been trying since the coming of Barack Obama to immerse the new US Administration in the recurring troubles between India and Pakistan and comploting terrorists attack in both States; the purpose was to divert the US from pressuring Israel to deliver on its promises for facilitating the establishment of a recognized Palestinian State.

With spring the Pakistani Army is making good progress inside the rebellious extremist Taliban type districts within Pakistan such as the Valley of Souwat and with the support of US military shipments.

I was having a nap around 4 p.m. this Wednesday when I overheard that the four military officers, Jamil Al Sayyed (former Security Director), Raymond Azar (military intelligence), Mustafa Hamdan (Presidential guard), and Ali Haj (director of the internal forces) will be released this afternoon after the special International Court of Justice for former Rafic Hariri realized that it had no legal indictments on any one of the Generals.

There will be strong pressures for four judges to resign because they covered up information and detained the officers for 44 months without any kinds of indictments for political reasons; mainly the focus will be on the judges Said Mirza and Sakr Sakr.

Many heads will fall and the government is in hot water, especially Seniora PM, Saad Hariri, Walid Jumblatt, Samir Geagea, and particularly deputy Marwan Hamady for fabricating false testimonies by false witnesses.

After four years of investigation into the assassination of Rafic Hariri the International Court has nothing in its file for indicting anyone.  Nasr Allah, the Secretary General of Hezbollah has suggested that a new venue be focused on; mainly the Israeli connection because they had the interest and the means for this major upheaval in Lebanon.  Nas Allah proclaimed that no more indictments or imprisonment would be facilitated before thorough analysis of the proofs with the UN Court.

Jamil Al Sayyed had explained that their political indictment was a routine behavior of every government since the Independence of Lebanon.

The security responsibility of any government starts with the president of the Republic, then the Prime Minister, then the Head of the Parliament, then the ministers, then the deputies and lastly the security forces.  All the massacres, treasury stealing, financial black boxes, and insecurity of the State are done by the politicians and based on their policies.  Once the politicians find it convenient to reconcile their differences it is the officers of the security and military forces that are targeted as scapegoats.

Next Tuesday the highest court of judges of Lebanon will meet and come up with a credible explanation for shirking its independence as the third authority and hopefully major heads should pay the price for ruining the credibility of our justice system.


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

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