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Science of synchronization: Are we talking of Chinese swimmers?

“Your pacemaker is not a single cell. It’s this democracy of 10,000 cells that all have to fire in unison for the pacemaker to work correctly”

I was trying to think, how is sync connected to happiness, and it occurred to me that for some reason we take pleasure in synchronizing.

We like to dance together, we like singing together. And so, if you’ll put up with this, I would like to enlist your help with a first experiment today.

The experiment is — and I notice, by the way, that when you applauded, that you did it in a typical North American way, that is, you were raucous and incoherent. You were not organized. It didn’t even occur to you to clap in unison.

Do you think you could do it? I would like to see if this audience would — no, you haven’t practiced, as far as I know — can you get it together to clap in sync?

I mean, I expected you could synchronize. It didn’t occur to me you’d increase your frequency. It’s interesting.  

1:23 So what do we make of that?

First of all, we know that you’re all brilliant. This is a room full of intelligent people, highly sensitive. Some trained musicians out there. Is that what enabled you to synchronize?

let’s ask ourselves what are the minimum requirements for what you just did, for spontaneous synchronization. Do you need, for instance, to be as smart as you are? Do you even need a brain at all just to synchronize?

Inanimate objects might spontaneously synchronize themselves. It’s real.

In fact, I’ll try to explain today that sync is maybe one of the most pervasive drive in all of nature. It extends from the subatomic scale to the farthest reaches of the cosmos. It’s a deep tendency toward order in nature that opposes what we’ve all been taught about entropy.

 I’m not saying the law of entropy is wrong — it’s not. But there is a countervailing force in the universe — the tendency towards spontaneous order. And so that’s our theme.

to get into that, let me begin with what might have occurred to you immediately when you hear that we’re talking about synchrony in nature, which is the glorious example of birds that flock together, or fish swimming in organized schools.

these are not particularly intelligent creatures, and yet, as we’ll see, they exhibit beautiful ballets. This is from a BBC show called “Predators,” and what we’re looking at here are examples of synchrony that have to do with defense.

When you’re small and vulnerable, like these starlings, or like the fish, it helps to swarm to avoid predators, to confuse predators.

Let me be quiet for a second because this is so gorgeous. For a long time, biologists were puzzled by this behavior, wondering how it could be possible. We’re so used to choreography giving rise to synchrony. These creatures are not choreographed. They’re choreographing themselves.

only today is science starting to figure out how it works.

I’ll show you a computer model made by Iain Couzin, a researcher at Oxford, that shows how swarms work. There are just three simple rules.

First, all the individuals are only aware of their nearest neighbors.

Second, all the individuals have a tendency to line up. And

Third, they’re all attracted to each other, but they try to keep a small distance apart.

And when you build those three rules in, automatically you start to see swarms that look very much like fish schools or bird flocks. Now, fish like to stay close together, about a body length apart. Birds try to stay about three or four body lengths apart. But except for that difference, the rules are the same for both.

all this changes when a predator enters the scene.

There’s a fourth rule: when a predator’s coming, get out of the way. Here on the model you see the predator attacking. The prey move out in random directions, and then the rule of attraction brings them back together again, so there’s this constant splitting and reforming. And you see that in nature.

Keep in mind that, although it looks as if each individual is acting to cooperate, what’s really going on is a kind of selfish Darwinian behavior.

Each is scattering away at random to try to save its scales or feathers. That is, out of the desire to save itself, each creature is following these rules, and that leads to something that’s safe for all of them.

Even though it looks like they’re thinking as a group, they’re not. You might wonder what exactly is the advantage to being in a swarm, so you can think of several.

 if you’re in a swarm, your odds of being the unlucky one are reduced as compared to a small group. There are many eyes to spot danger. And you’ll see in the example with the starlings, with the birds, when this peregrine hawk is about to attack them, that actually waves of panic can propagate, sending messages over great distances.

You’ll see — let’s see, it’s coming up possibly at the very end — maybe not. Information can be sent over half a kilometer away in a very short time through this mechanism. Yes, it’s happening here. See if you can see those waves propagating through the swarm. It’s beautiful.

The birds are, we sort of understand, we think, from that computer model, what’s going on. As I say, it’s just those three simple rules, plus the one about watch out for predators.

There doesn’t seem to be anything mystical about this. We don’t, however, really understand at a mathematical level. I’m a mathematician. We would like to be able to understand better.

I showed you a computer model, but a computer is not understanding. A computer is, in a way, just another experiment. We would really like to have a deeper insight into how this works and to understand, you know, exactly where this organization comes from. How do the rules give rise to the patterns?

There is one case that we have begun to understand better, and it’s the case of fireflies. If you see fireflies in North America, they tend to be independent operators. They ignore each other. They each do their own thing, flashing on and off, paying no attention to their neighbors.

But in Southeast Asia — places like Thailand or Malaysia or Borneo — there’s a beautiful cooperative behavior that occurs among male fireflies. You can see it every night along the river banks. The trees, mangrove trees, are filled with fireflies communicating with light.

Specifically, it’s male fireflies who are all flashing in perfect time together, in perfect synchrony, to reinforce a message to the females. And the message, as you can imagine, is “Come hither. Mate with me.”

In a second I’m going to show you a slow motion of a single firefly so that you can get a sense. This is a single frame. Then on, and then off — a 30th of a second, there. And then watch this whole river bank, and watch how precise the synchrony is.

On, more on and then off. The combined light from these beetles — these are actually tiny beetles — is so bright that fishermen out at sea can use them as navigating beacons to find their way back to their home rivers. It’s stunning.

For a long time it was not believed when the first Western travelers, like Sir Francis Drake, went to Thailand and came back with tales of this unbelievable spectacle. No one believed them. We don’t see anything like this in Europe or in the West.

And for a long time, even after it was documented, it was thought to be some kind of optical illusion. Scientific papers were published saying it was twitching eyelids that explained it, or, you know, a human being’s tendency to see patterns where there are none. But I hope you’ve convinced yourself now, with this nighttime video, that they really were very well synchronized.

the issue then is, do we need to be alive to see this kind of spontaneous order, and I’ve already hinted that the answer is no.

Well, you don’t have to be a whole creature. You can even be just a single cell. Like, take, for instance, your pacemaker cells in your heart right now. They’re keeping you alive. Every beat of your heart depends on this crucial region, the sinoatrial node, which has about 10,000 independent cells that would each beep, have an electrical rhythm — a voltage up and down — to send a signal to the ventricles to pump.

Now, your pacemaker is not a single cell. It’s this democracy of 10,000 cells that all have to fire in unison for the pacemaker to work correctly.

I don’t want to give you the idea that synchrony is always a good idea. If you have epilepsy, there is an instance of billions of brain cells, or at least millions, discharging in pathological concert.

So this tendency towards order is not always a good thing. You don’t have to be alive. You don’t have to be even a single cell. If you look, for instance, at how lasers work, that would be a case of atomic synchrony.

In a laser, what makes laser light so different from the light above my head here is that this light is incoherent — many different colors and different frequencies, sort of like the way you clapped initially — but if you were a laser, it would be rhythmic applause. It would be all atoms pulsating in unison, emitting light of one color, one frequency.

1Now comes the very risky part of my talk, which is to demonstrate that inanimate things can synchronize. Hold your breath for me.

What I have here are two empty water bottles. This is not Keith Barry doing a magic trick. This is a klutz just playing with some water bottles. I have some metronomes here. Can you hear that? All right, so, I’ve got a metronome, and it’s the world’s smallest metronome, the — well, I shouldn’t advertise. Anyway, so this is the world’s smallest metronome.

I’ve set it on the fastest setting, and I’m going to now take another one set to the same setting. We can try this first. If I just put them on the table together, there’s no reason for them to synchronize, and they probably won’t.

Maybe you’d better listen to them. I’ll stand here. What I’m hoping is that they might just drift apart because their frequencies aren’t perfectly the same. Right? They did. They were in sync for a while, but then they drifted apart. And the reason is that they’re not able to communicate.

Now, you might think that’s a bizarre idea. How can metronomes communicate? Well, they can communicate through mechanical forces. So I’m going to give them a chance to do that. I also want to wind this one up a bit.

How can they communicate? I’m going to put them on a movable platform, which is the “Guide to Graduate Study at Cornell.” Okay? So here it is. Let’s see if we can get this to work. My wife pointed out to me that it will work better if I put both on at the same time because otherwise the whole thing will tip over.

All right. So there we go. Let’s see. OK, I’m not trying to cheat — let me start them out of sync. No, hard to even do that. So before any one goes out of sync, I’ll just put those right there.

 that might seem a bit whimsical, but this pervasiveness of this tendency towards spontaneous order sometimes has unexpected consequences. And a clear case of that, was something that happened in London in the year 2000.

The Millennium Bridge was supposed to be the pride of London — a beautiful new footbridge erected across the Thames, first river crossing in over 100 years in London.

There was a big competition for the design of this bridge, and the winning proposal was submitted by an unusual team — in the TED spirit, actually — of an architect — perhaps the greatest architect in the United Kingdom, Lord Norman Foster working with an artist, a sculptor, Sir Anthony Caro, and an engineering firm, Ove Arup.

And together they submitted a design based on Lord Foster’s vision, which was — he remembered as a kid reading Flash Gordon comic books, and he said that when Flash Gordon would come to an abyss, he would shoot what today would be a kind of a light saber.

He would shoot his light saber across the abyss, making a blade of light, and then scamper across on this blade of light. He said, “That’s the vision I want to give to London. I want a blade of light across the Thames.”

So they built the blade of light, and it’s a very thin ribbon of steel, the world’s — probably the flattest and thinnest suspension bridge there is, with cables that are out on the side.

You’re used to suspension bridges with big droopy cables on the top. These cables were on the side of the bridge, like if you took a rubber band and stretched it taut across the Thames — that’s what’s holding up this bridge. Now, everyone was very excited to try it out.

On opening day, thousands of Londoners came out, and something happened. And within two days the bridge was closed to the public. So I want to first show you some interviews with people who were on the bridge on opening day, who will describe what happened.

16:13 Man: It really started moving sideways and slightly up and down, rather like being on the boat.

16:21 Woman: Yeah, it felt unstable, and it was very windy, and I remember it had lots of flags up and down the sides, so you could definitely — there was something going on sideways, it felt, maybe.

16:31 Interviewer: Not up and down? Boy: No.

16:33 Interviewer: And not forwards and backwards? Boy: No.

16:35 Interviewer: Just sideways. About how much was it moving, do you think?

16:38 Boy: It was about —

16:40 Interviewer: I mean, that much, or this much?

16:42 Boy: About the second one.

16:44 Interviewer: This much? Boy: Yeah.

16:46 Man: It was at least six, six to eight inches, I would have thought.

16:49 Interviewer: Right, so, at least this much? Man: Oh, yes.

16:51 Woman: I remember wanting to get off.

16:53 Interviewer: Oh, did you? Woman: Yeah. It felt odd.

16:55 Interviewer: So it was enough to be scary? Woman: Yeah, but I thought that was just me.

17:01 Interviewer: Ah! Now, tell me why you had to do this?

17:04 Boy: We had to do this because, to keep in balance because if you didn’t keep your balance, then you would just fall over about, like, to the left or right, about 45 degrees.

Interviewer: So just show me how you walk normally. Right. And then show me what it was like when the bridge started to go. Right. So you had to deliberately push your feet out sideways and — oh, and short steps?

17:30 Man: That’s right. And it seemed obvious to me that it was probably the number of people on it.

17:37 Interviewer: Were they deliberately walking in step, or anything like that?

17:41 Man: No, they just had to conform to the movement of the bridge.

17:45 Steven Strogatz: All right, so that already gives you a hint of what happened. Think of the bridge as being like this platform. Think of the people as being like metronomes. Now, you might not be used to thinking of yourself as a metronome, but after all, we do walk like — I mean, we oscillate back and forth as we walk.

And especially if we start to walk like those people did, right? They all showed this strange sort of skating gait that they adopted once the bridge started to move.

And so let me show you now the footage of the bridge. But also, after you see the bridge on opening day, you’ll see an interesting clip of work done by a bridge engineer at Cambridge named Allan McRobie, who figured out what happened on the bridge, and who built a bridge simulator to explain exactly what the problem was.

It was a kind of unintended positive feedback loop between the way the people walked and the way the bridge began to move, that engineers knew nothing about. Actually, I think the first person you’ll see is the young engineer who was put in charge of this project.

18:46 (Video) Interviewer: Did anyone get hurt? Engineer: No.

18:48 Interviewer: Right. So it was quite small — Engineer: Yes. Interviewer: — but real?

18:51 Engineer: Absolutely. Interviewer: You thought, “Oh, bother.”

18:54 Engineer: I felt I was disappointed about it.

18:57 We’d spent a lot of time designing this bridge, and we’d analyzed it, we’d checked it to codes — to heavier loads than the codes — and here it was doing something that we didn’t know about.

Interviewer: You didn’t expect. Engineer: Exactly.

19:09 Narrator: The most dramatic and shocking footage shows whole sections of the crowd — hundreds of people — apparently rocking from side to side in unison, not only with each other, but with the bridge. This synchronized movement seemed to be driving the bridge.

But how could the crowd become synchronized? Was there something special about the Millennium Bridge that caused this effect? This was to be the focus of the investigation.

19:35 Interviewer: Well, at last the simulated bridge is finished, and I can make it wobble. Now, Allan, this is all your fault, isn’t it? Allan McRobie: Yes.

19:46 Interviewer: You designed this, yes, this simulated bridge, and this, you reckon, mimics the action of the real bridge?

19:51 AM: It captures a lot of the physics, yes.

19:53 Interviewer: Right. So if we get on it, we should be able to wobble it, yes?

Allan McRobie is a bridge engineer from Cambridge who wrote to me, suggesting that a bridge simulator ought to wobble in the same way as the real bridge — provided we hung it on pendulums of exactly the right length.

20:09 AM: This one’s only a couple of tons, so it’s fairly easy to get going. Just by walking. Interviewer: Well, it’s certainly going now.

20:15 AM: It doesn’t have to be a real dangle. Just walk. It starts to go.

20:18 Interviewer: It’s actually quite difficult to walk. You have to be careful where you put your feet down, don’t you, because if you get it wrong, it just throws you off your feet.

20:27 AM: It certainly affects the way you walk, yes. You can’t walk normally on it.

20:32 Interviewer: No. If you try and put one foot in front of another, it’s moving your feet away from under you. AM: Yes.

20:37 Interviewer: So you’ve got to put your feet out sideways. So already, the simulator is making me walk in exactly the same way as our witnesses walked on the real bridge.

20:45 AM: … ice-skating gait. There isn’t all this sort of snake way of walking.

20:48 Interviewer: For a more convincing experiment, I wanted my own opening-day crowd, the sound check team. Their instructions: just walk normally. It’s really intriguing because none of these people is trying to drive it.

They’re all having some difficulty walking. And the only way you can walk comfortably is by getting in step. But then, of course, everyone is driving the bridge. You can’t help it. You’re actually forced by the movement of the bridge to get into step, and therefore to drive it to move further.

21:31 SS: All right, well, with that from the Ministry of Silly Walks, maybe I’d better end. I see I’ve gone over. But I hope that you’ll go outside and see the world in a new way, to see all the amazing synchrony around us. Thank you.

Patsy Z shared this link TED
 
Mathematician Steven Strogatz shows how flocks of creatures (like birds, fireflies and fish) manage to synchronize and act as a unit
— when no one’s giving orders.
t.ted.com|By Steven Strogatz

Notes and comments on FB and Twitter. Part 31

She is relatively physically functional in the morning. Pains forces her to integrate her sofa. Then she confuses day and night as the days light lengthen.

Les autorités évictent une part du bidonville. Ces “parachitistes” des bédonvilles sont convergés vers une parcel de proprietaires pauvres. Ils construisent leur favela en une journée. Ils attendent que les autorités les evictent et plient bagabes promptement: Les Real Estates developers, aidés des politiciens vereux, s’approprient le terrain.

“L’âme libre n’a cure ni de honte ni d’honneur, ni d’enfer ni de paradis, ni d’amour ni de haine…” Was Marguerite Porete, brulee vife en 1310, transcrivait le sufi Al 7allaj?

“Le mirroir des simples ames aneanties et qui demeurent en vouloir et desir d’ Amour” Le titre du livre de Marguerite Porete en 1306. Elle fut brulee en place de Greve en 1310 pour avoir refusé de comparaitre devant l’inquisiteur de Paris. Ses idees etaient proche de Maitre Ekhart et Dante

Même en changeant de maison, la famille avait du mal a chasser l’idee que la femme fantome sans-gene n’avait pas démenage avec eux.

J’etais si heureux que mon pere a finallement sue que je ne pourrais plus poursuivre mes etudes que c’etait comme si j’avais obtenu mon diplome.

Gutierrez? The new UN rascal Chief? He pressured ESCWA Rima Khalaf to resign because she submitted documented report on Israel very bad records on Human Rights

Over 60% of Palestinians in Occupied territories have experienced administrative detention for months with no trials. Everyday, Israel make it a routine to detain a dozen Palestinian youths for intimidation and humiliation tactics

In all critical revolutions, Bills for Women Rights were totally forgotten or ignored. Even equitable consideration between sexes were Not discussed 

Le plus dur est fait: mon parcours sur terre quand j’etais jeune

La mort est plus ami que tout autre ami, et plus puissante qu’aucune des vertus

Même la realite se trompe quand l’écriture est mauvaise

It is the multiple pains that remind old people that they are still living

Aide-soignante pour les vieillards a domicile. Surtout pour les laisser parler, ecouter et se sentir en securité que quelqu’un viendra cette semaine pour leur render visite

Quand la fille fait la gueule a 20 ans, c’est sexy. A 60 ans, c’est chiant. Une femme est condamnée a un certain age a la bonne humeur

Les poussins males qui ne peuvent devenir poullets sont broyés vivant dans les industries

Don’t count on global human empathy. Only the little drama on the street demands details and requires security instructions

Un risque trop élevé efface la réalite des centaines de petites risques quotidienne qui nous tuent haphazardement.

Le temps du Purgatoire est une longue preparation a la souveraineté humaine. Trop longue: n’espérez plus de visiter l’Enfer ou le Paradis pour attendre quoique ce soit.

C’est la fenêtre qui fait la chamber. Pas seulement la vue et la lumiere, mais les rideaux et les bords de la fenetre

Quand on decide d’inviter une douzaines de personnes a diner, c’est premiérement une punition, a soi et aux autres

Dante prepared the path to revolt against Papal Rome. Les abus des Papes simonisme et nepotisme. La separation des pouvoires temporelles et spirituelles.

Dante adopted the same concepts of Averroes (Ibn Roshd), 200 years earlier in Andalusia

La plus heureuse des experiences c’est quand on comprend qu’il faut apprendre a lire les hieroglyphs de la realite, sans frapper aux portes ou poser des questions.

If it were Not for the nationalization of Suez canal crisis in 1956, this binary pole of USA Capitalism and Soviet Communism dominion would have taken longer to materialize, and the European Union would have waited far too long to be shaped and agreed upon. The EU was a reaction to the dual global dominion.

Ibrahim Ameen 7at al nikaat 3ala 7ourouf: Banks reserves in 1992 was $300 million. Jumped to current $170 billion.

Riad Salameh (central bank chief for 20 years) has impoverished the Lebanese people by obeying the mindless option of privatizing everything in Lebanon and destroying all public institutions.

One third of any bond offering is allocated to foreign banks, Not because the Lebanese banks cannot cover the loan but so that Riad Salameh can be rewarded as best Central Bank Chief and to deny most Lebanese banks from enjoying hal ghalleh

Si on censurait les mots Allah, Dieu, God…, comme étant des termes erotiques, peut- etre qu’un changement se déclencherait

Charity (Fawcett Society) warns 8 million women won’t vote in the general election on June 8

A century anniversary for voting women

With two weeks left to register to vote, the Fawcett Society is warning that millions of women are set to miss out on the chance to have their say as they celebrate almost 100 years since the right to vote was granted

By 9 MAY 2017

There are a “missing eight million” women who won’t vote in the general election on June 8.

Shocking figures compiled by the Fawcett Society, the UK’s leading charity for gender equality, also reveal that fewer women than men are registered to vote.

An average of recent polling shows that 2.5% points fewer women than men say they are certain to vote.

When applied to turnout at the 2015 general election this could see eight million women not exercising their rights, half a million more than the 7.5 million men who are not certain they’ll vote.

There is also a gap in voter registration with 2.5% points fewer women than men saying that they are currently on the register.

With the deadline to register to vote just two weeks away, the charity is warning that millions of women won’t be able to have their say almost a hundred years after women won the right.

Actors (L-R) Anne-Marie Duff, Carey Mulligan and Helena Bonham Carter take part in filming of the movie Suffragette at Parliament
Actors (L-R) Anne-Marie Duff, Carey Mulligan and Helena Bonham Carter take part in filming of the movie Suffragette at Parliament (Photo: Getty Images)
The charity is also urging candidates to take on board their women’s manifesto.Fawcett Chief Executive Sam Smethers said: “Almost 100 years on from the first women getting the right to vote, we still see what is likely to be a significant gap in turnout by gender.

“We are calling on all women to make sure they register to vote before the deadline.”

“With the overall gender pay gap still at 18%, violence against women and girls still rife in our society, and Brexit posing a risk to hard-fought protections, it is as important as ever that women have a say.

“We urge women across the country to take these demands to their candidates.”

Sam Smethers of the Fawcett Society said society is quick to blame the victims of sexual assault
Sam Smethers of the Fawcett Society is encouraging all women to have their say (Photo: PA Photo/Handout)

Fawcett analysis also shows that, across different polls, women have different priorities to men in the general election.

Women consistently view the NHS as a more prominent issue, with 63% in an average of polls saying it is key compared with 50% of men.

Men are slightly more concerned with Brexit , with 50% rating it as an important issue versus 45% for women.

The charity’s manifesto calls for measures to get more women into power, including for at least 45% of parties’ parliamentary candidates to be women.

How Facebook, fake news and personalised ads could swing the 2017 election – and what you can do about it

Other key recommendations include:

· Women to be represented at every level and stage of Brexit negotiations.

· An increase in the national living wage to bring it up to the level of the real living wage.

· An extended, dedicated, well paid period of leave for fathers

Suffragette demonstration in London, 21st March 1906
Suffragette demonstration in London, 21st March 1906 (Photo: Mirrorpix)

· A requirement for large companies who have to report their gender pay gaps to have an action plan in place, and penalties for those who do not comply.

· A long-term, national, and sustainable funding strategy for specialist women-only services including domestic violence refuges, in order to meet our Istanbul Convention obligations.

· A National Care Service, giving social care parity with the NHS, and investing in social care infrastructure with a professionalised care workforce.

The Manifesto also addresses equal representation, defending women’s rights post- Brexit , ending violence against women and girls, and ensuring women are not hardest hit by any economic downturn or spending cuts.

How do I register to vote?

Visit gov.uk/register-to-vote and fill in 11 questions.

They include your name, address, National Insurance number and whether you want a postal vote.

There’s not much else you need to fill in.

How can we make love statistics? Interactive graphs?

Think you’re good at guessing stats? Guess again. Whether we consider ourselves math people or not, our ability to understand and work with numbers is terribly limited, says data visualization expert Alan Smith. Smith explores the mismatch between what we know and what we think we know.

Alan Smith. Data visualisation editor
Alan Smith uses interactive graphics and statistics to breathe new life into how data is presented. Full bio
Filmed April 2016

Back in 2003, the UK government carried out a survey. And it was a survey that measured levels of numeracy in the population.

And they were shocked to find out that for every 100 working age adults in the country, 47 of them lacked Level 1 numeracy skills. Now, Level 1 numeracy skills — that’s low-end GCSE score. It’s the ability to deal with fractions, percentages and decimals.

this figure prompted a lot of hand-wringing in Whitehall. Policies were changed, investments were made, and then they ran the survey again in 2011. So can you guess what happened to this number? It went up to 49.

0:57 And in fact, when I reported this figure in the FT, one of our readers joked and said, This figure is only shocking to 51 percent of the population.”

But I preferred the reaction of a schoolchild when I presented at a school this information, who raised their hand and said, “How do we know that the person who made that number isn’t one of the 49 percent either?”

1:20 (Laughter)

So clearly, there’s a numeracy issue, because these are important skills for life, and a lot of the changes that we want to introduce in this century involve us becoming more comfortable with numbers. (Can’t learn numeracy without using a pen and pencil?)

it’s not just an English problem. OECD this year released some figures looking at numeracy in young people, and leading the way, the USA — nearly 40 percent of young people in the US have low numeracy. Now, England is there too, but there are seven OECD countries with figures above 20 percent. That is a problem, because it doesn’t have to be that way. If you look at the far end of this graph, you can see the Netherlands and Korea are in single figures. So there’s definitely a numeracy problem that we want to address. (It is the method used to learning numeracy)

 as useful as studies like these are, I think we risk herding people inadvertently into one of two categories; that there are two kinds of people: those people that are comfortable with numbers, that can do numbers, and the people who can’t.

And what I’m trying to talk about here today is to say that I believe that is a false dichotomy. It’s not an immutable pairing. I think you don’t have to have tremendously high levels of numeracy to be inspired by numbers, and that should be the starting point to the journey ahead.

one of the ways in which we can begin that journey, for me, is looking at statistics. Now, I am the first to acknowledge that statistics has got somewhat of an image problem.

2:52 (Laughter)

It’s the part of mathematics that even mathematicians don’t particularly like, because whereas the rest of maths is all about precision and certainty, statistics is almost the reverse of that.

But actually, I was a late convert to the world of statistics myself. If you’d asked my undergraduate professors what two subjects would I be least likely to excel in after university, they’d have told you statistics and computer programming, and yet here I am, about to show you some statistical graphics that I programmed. (You think you comprehended probability and statistics, but you forget them if Not practiced)

 what inspired that change in me? What made me think that statistics was actually an interesting thing? It’s really because statistics are about us.

If you look at the etymology of the word statistics, it’s the science of dealing with data about the state or the community that we live in. So statistics are about us as a group, not us as individuals. And I think as social animals, we share this fascination about how we, as individuals, relate to our groups, to our peers. And statistics in this way are at their most powerful when they surprise us.

there’s been some really wonderful surveys carried out recently by Ipsos MORI in the last few years. They did a survey of over 1,000 adults in the UK, and said, for every 100 people in England and Wales, how many of them are Muslim? Now the average answer from this survey, which was supposed to be representative of the total population, was 24. That’s what people thought. British people think 24 out of every 100 people in the country are Muslim. Now, official figures reveal that figure to be about five. So there’s this big variation between what we think, our perception, and the reality as given by statistics. And I think that’s interesting. What could possibly be causing that misperception?

I was so thrilled with this study, I started to take questions out in presentations. I was referring to it. Now, I did a presentation at St. Paul’s School for Girls in Hammersmith, and I had an audience rather like this, except it was comprised entirely of sixth-form girls.

And I said, “Girls, how many teenage girls do you think the British public think get pregnant every year?” And the girls were apoplectic when I said the British public think that 15 out of every 100 teenage girls get pregnant in the year. And they had every right to be angry, because in fact, I’d have to have closer to 200 dots before I could color one in, in terms of what the official figures tell us.

And rather like numeracy, this is not just an English problem. Ipsos MORI expanded the survey in recent years to go across the world. And so, they asked Saudi Arabians, for every 100 adults in your country, how many of them are overweight or obese? And the average answer from the Saudis was just over a quarter. That’s what they thought. Just over a quarter of adults are overweight or obese. The official figures show, actually, it’s nearer to three-quarters.

5:56 (Laughter)

5:57 So again, a big variation.

I love this one: they asked the Japanese, for every 100 Japanese people, how many of them live in rural areas? The average was about a 50-50 split, just over halfway. They thought 56 out of every 100 Japanese people lived in rural areas. The official figure is seven.

So extraordinary variations, and surprising to some, but not surprising to people who have read the work of Daniel Kahneman, for example, the Nobel-winning economist. He and his colleague, Amos Tversky, spent years researching this disjoint between what people perceive and the reality, the fact that people are actually pretty poor intuitive statisticians. (I read many of their research papers in the late 80’s)

And there are many reasons for this. Individual experiences, certainly, can influence our perceptions, but so, too, can things like the media reporting things by exception, rather than what’s normal. Kahneman had a nice way of referring to that. He said, “We can be blind to the obvious” — so we’ve got the numbers wrong — “but we can be blind to our blindness about it.” And that has enormous repercussions for decision making.

at the statistics office while this was all going on, I thought this was really interesting. I said, this is clearly a global problem, but maybe geography is the issue here.

These were questions that were all about, how well do you know your country? So in this case, it’s how well do you know 64 million people? Not very well, it turns out. I can’t do that. So I had an idea, which was to think about this same sort of approach but to think about it in a very local sense. Is this a local? If we reframe the questions and say, how well do you know your local area, would your answers be any more accurate?

I devised a quiz: How well do you know your area? It’s a simple Web app. You put in a post code and then it will ask you questions based on census data for your local area. And I was very conscious in designing this. I wanted to make it open to the widest possible range of people, not just the 49 percent who can get the numbers.

I wanted everyone to engage with it. So for the design of the quiz, I was inspired by the isotypes of Otto Neurath from the 1920s and ’30s. Now, these are methods for representing numbers using repeating icons. And the numbers are there, but they sit in the background. So it’s a great way of representing quantity without resorting to using terms like “percentage,” “fractions” and “ratios.”

So here’s the quiz. The layout of the quiz is, you have your repeating icons on the left-hand side there, and a map showing you the area we’re asking you questions about on the right-hand side. There are 7 questions. Each question, there’s a possible answer between zero and a hundred, and at the end of the quiz, you get an overall score between zero and a hundred.

And so because this is TEDxExeter, I thought we would have a quick look at the quiz for the first few questions of Exeter. And so the first question is: For every 100 people, how many are aged under 16? Now, I don’t know Exeter very well at all, so I had a guess at this, but it gives you an idea of how this quiz works. You drag the slider to highlight your icons, and then just click “Submit” to answer, and we animate away the difference between your answer and reality. And it turns out, I was a pretty terrible guess: five.

How about the next question? This is asking about what the average age is, so the age at which half the population are younger and half the population are older. (This is the definition of the median) And I thought 35 — that sounds middle-aged to me.

9:35 (Laughter)

9:39 Actually, in Exeter, it’s incredibly young, and I had underestimated the impact of the university in this area. The questions get harder as you go through. So this one’s now asking about homeownership: For every 100 households, how many are owned with a mortgage or loan? And I hedged my bets here, because I didn’t want to be more than 50 out on the answer.

 these get harder, these questions, because when you’re in an area, when you’re in a community, things like age — there are clues to whether a population is old or young. Just by looking around the area, you can see it. Something like homeownership is much more difficult to see, so we revert to our own heuristics, our own biases about how many people we think own their own homes.

the truth is, when we published this quiz, the census data that it’s based on was already a few years old. We’ve had online applications that allow you to put in a post code and get statistics back for years. So in some senses, this was all a little bit old and not necessarily new. But I was interested to see what reaction we might get by gamifying the data in the way that we have, by using animation and playing on the fact that people have their own preconceptions.

It turns out, the reaction was more than I could have hoped for. It was a long-held ambition of mine to bring down a statistics website due to public demand.

11:06 (Laughter)

This URL contains the words “statistics,” “gov” and “UK,” which are three of people’s least favorite words in a URL. And the amazing thing about this was that the website came down at quarter to 10 at night, because people were actually engaging with this data of their own free will, using their own personal time.

I was very interested to see that we got something like a quarter of a million people playing the quiz within the space of 48 hours of launching it. And it sparked an enormous discussion online, on social media, which was largely dominated by people having fun with their misconceptions, which is something that I couldn’t have hoped for any better, in some respects. I also liked the fact that people started sending it to politicians. How well do you know the area you claim to represent? (All candidates to public office must go through such quizzes in their locality and the nation)

 then just to finish, going back to the two kinds of people, I thought it would be really interesting to see how people who are good with numbers would do on this quiz. The national statistician of England and Wales, John Pullinger, you would expect he would be pretty good. He got 44 for his own area.

12:16 (Laughter)

Jeremy Paxman — admittedly, after a glass of wine — 36. Even worse. It just shows you that the numbers can inspire us all. They can surprise us all.

12:31 So very often, we talk about statistics as being the science of uncertainty. My parting thought for today is: actually, statistics is the science of us. And that’s why we should be fascinated by numbers. 

Patsy Z shared this link · 7 hrs

TEST YOUR FACTS.
“Whether we consider ourselves math people or not, our ability to understand and work with numbers is terribly limited.”

A talk from TEDxExeter.
#TED #TEDx #TEDxTalks #SKE #TEDxSKE #Salon #TEDxSKESalon #TEDxExeter #Statistics #Numbers #Facts

Alan Smith explores the mismatch between what we know and what we th…
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Notes and comments on FB and Twitter. Part 30

Ce n’est pas de folie d’amour que tu rêves: c’est d’un mari, d’une femme lesbienne…

Et s’il n’est homme qui supporte moins la contrainte d’une femme, il n’est personne qui sache se contraindre plus qu’une femme pour montrer son amour

Les hommes et les femmes ne sont pas plus sage les uns que les autres: un amour manqué et l’on devient moine/soeur, abandonne le pays, ou se laisser mourire.

C’est en jouant le jeu de l’ aimée, qu’un beau jour elle est éprise et prise au jeu.

La folie est la compagne et le guide de la creation et de l’amour.

Aujourd’hui on dit: “les génes sont les folles activateurs”

Quand je n’arrive pas a m’imaginer une bête ou une plante, alors ca m’est indifferent de tuer les poules.

Les tisserants de la ville lui confient leurs enfants en nourrice: et leur propres enfants en patissent

Je suis allé en Suede, a la poursuite de ma garce de bien-aimé, que je trouve marriée. Les arrangements avec le mari mon prouver qu’il n’avait pas de coeur. Il n’avait pas de savoir-faire.

J’étais éleve et entouré de tendresse feminine: Je ‘étais pas capable de haine soutenue. (Et portant, la haine feminine perdure: il etait chanceux)

C’est un effort prodigieux de bêtise pour etre capable de croire sérieusement á la guerre et accepter l’éventualité

Lorsequ’il s’agit de tuer mes semblables, je ne suis plus assez poête. Et je tue sans panache

Experimental mind testing: give a subject/researcher a peer-reviewed paper of Another discipline and test his comprehension

In the USA, going bankrupt is a way of doing business: No shame or blame attached to it. Except if a US financial company own your “foreign” business, then you are a very bad person, and your entire family owe the company.

Someone self-sufficient in his utter egotistic shyness, who refrains from communicating and asking questions, it is normal he views Injustice Not emanating from men, but victims and tools

Anyone knows of a taxonomy for mathematics? The shared axioms, the applied fields, the algorithmic natures…

Anyone in any rank of power, cognizant of the Injustices surrounding his work environment, is source of injustice if he doesn’t whistle-blow or come to the rescue of the hapless. He is liable of undue cruelty and you don’t need to give much weight to his excuses,

Décidé a faire dans le génie, je n’arrivais qu’a manqur de talent

Un jeune recrue, entendant ma mére crier “Vive la France” et seule a porter un drapeau tricolore, grommelea: “Ca se voit bien qu’elle n’est pas Francaise”

Je me reconnais dans tous mes ennemis: une veritable infirmité

Quelques bêtes meurent de honte. Notre espéce meurt du Destin stupid.

Discovering the mysteries of life and the Universe might not be attainable: for the simple reason that any paradigm would not stick long enough to capture the mind of any generation.

Dans toutes les organism sociaux malades, l’espionnism sévisse.

Le plus grand effort de ma vie est de désespérer totallement. Rien n’y fait: je suis trop lent pour que le désespoir accélere suffisamment.

Les militaires des nations vaincues sont méprisés óu ils séjournent. Il faudrait que toutes les armés soient vaincues simultanément pour avoir la paix

Apprendre a ne se laisser plus aveuglé par le drapeau: Reconnaitre les visages honnetes et réflechis

Avec le temps, je rougis plus facilement de la colére que de modestie

Elle aime les jolie histoires, ma mere. Je n’en connait pas de jolies: les series a la TV n’offrent pas de supplement romantiques.  On suit les coups, les vociferations, les ennuis de rage et de désespoires

For a piece of shit, it’s a real piece

Dans toutes les forêts du monde, j’ai su reconnoitre la voie de la bête-femelle qui a perdu son petit

Savoir que l’humain est une tentation impossible, ne doit pas etre accompagné et accueilli avec la resignation du désesperé

Cette chaude camomille empoisonnée de l’habitude, qui se verse dans notre gosier avec son gout de renoncement et d’acceptation

Ils étaient trop installés dans leurs meubles, leur condition humaine

Je choisis pour errer sur la terre les lieux oú il y a assez de place pour tous ceux qui ne sont plus lá. (Fauchés par les guerres)

The Failed Experiment That Changed The World

In science, we don’t simply perform experiments willy-nilly. We don’t put things together at random and ask, “what happens if I do this?” We examine the phenomena that exist, the predictions our theories make, and look for ways to test them in ever-greater detail.

Sometimes, they give extraordinary agreement to new precision, confirming what we had thought. Sometimes, they disagree, pointing the way to new physics. And sometimes, they fail to give any non-zero result at all.

In the 1880s, an incredibly precise experiment failed in exactly this fashion, and paved the way for relativity and quantum mechanics in doing so.

Ethan Siegel, Contributor

The orbits of the planets and comets, among other celestial objects, are governed by the laws of universal gravitation.

Kay Gibson, Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corp

The orbits of the planets and comets, among other celestial objects, are governed by the laws of universal gravitation.

Let’s go even farther back in history to understand why this was such a big deal. Gravitation was the first of the forces to be understood, as Newton had put forth his law of universal gravitation in the 1600s, explaining both the motions of bodies on Earth and in space.

A few decades later (in 1704) Newton also put forth a theory of light — the corpuscular theory — that stated that light was made up of particles, that these particles are rigid and weightless, and that they move in a straight line unless something causes them to reflect, refract or diffract.

Light's properties, such as reflection and refraction, appear to be corpuscular-like, but there are wave-like phenomena it exhibits as well.

Wikimedia Commons user Spigget

Light’s properties, such as reflection and refraction, appear to be corpuscular-like, but there are wave-like phenomena it exhibits as well.

This accounted for a lot of observed phenomena, including the realization that white light was the combination of all other colors of light. But as time went on, many experiments revealed the wave nature of light, an alternative explanation from Christiaan Huygens, one of Newton’s contemporaries.

Light's properties, such as reflection and refraction, appear to be corpuscular-like, but there are wave-like phenomena it exhibits as well.

Wikimedia Commons user Lookang

When any wave — water waves, sound waves, or light waves — are passed through a double slit, the waves create an interference pattern.

Huygens proposed instead that every point which can be considered a source of light, including from a light wave simply traveling forward, acted like a wave, with a spherical wavefront emanating from each of those points.

Although many experiments would give the same results whether you took Newton’s approach or Huygens’ approach, there were a few that took place beginning in 1799 that really began to show how powerful the wave theory was.

Light of different wavelengths, when passed through a double slit, exhibit the same wave-like properties that other waves do.

MIT Physics department Technical Services Group

Light of different wavelengths, when passed through a double slit, exhibit the same wave-like properties that other waves do.

By isolating different colors of light and passing them through either single slits, double slits or diffraction gratings, scientists were able to observe patterns that could only be produced if light was a wave. Indeed, the patterns produced — with peaks and troughs — mirrored that of well-known waves, like water waves.

The wave-like properties of light became even better understood thanks to Thomas Young's two-slit experiments, where constructive and destructive interference showed themselves dramatically.

Thomas Young, 1801

The wave-like properties of light became even better understood thanks to Thomas Young’s two-slit experiments, where constructive and destructive interference showed themselves dramatically.

But water waves — as it was well-known — traveled through the medium of water. Take away the water, and there’d be no wave! This was true of all known wave phenomena: sound, which is a compression and rarefaction, needs a medium to travel through as well.

If you take away all matter, there’s no medium for sound to travel through, and hence why they say, “In space, no one can hear you scream.”

In space, sounds that are produced on Earth will never travel to you, since there's no medium for sound to travel through between the Earth and you.

NASA/Marshall Space Flight Centre

In space, sounds that are produced on Earth will never travel to you, since there’s no medium for sound to travel through between the Earth and you.

So, then, the reasoning went, if light is a wave — albeit, as Maxwell demonstrated in the 1860s, an electromagnetic wave — it, too, must have a medium that it travels through. Although no one could measure this medium, it was given a name: the luminiferous aether.

Sounds like a silly idea now, doesn’t it? But it wasn’t a bad idea at all. In fact, it had all the hallmarks of a great scientific idea, because it not only built upon the science that had been established previously, but this idea made new predictions that were testable! Let me explain by using an analogy: the water in a rapidly moving river.

The Klamath River, flowing through a valley, is an example of a rapidly moving body of water.

Blake, Tupper Ansel, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service

The Klamath River, flowing through a valley, is an example of a rapidly moving body of water.

Imagine that you throw a rock into a raging river, and watch the waves that it makes. If you follow the ripples of the wave towards the banks, perpendicular to the direction of the current, the wave will move at a particular speed.

But what if you watch the wave move upstream? It’s going to move more slowly, because the medium that the wave is traveling through, the water, is moving! And if you watch the wave move downstream, it’ll move more quickly, again because the medium is moving.

Even though the luminiferous aether had never been detected or measured, there was an ingenious experiment devised by Albert A. Michelson that applied this same principle to light.

The Earth, moving in its orbit around the Sun and spinning on its axis, should provide an extra motion if there's any medium that light travels through.

Larry McNish, RASC Calgary

The Earth, moving in its orbit around the Sun and spinning on its axis, should provide an extra motion if there’s any medium that light travels through.

You see, even though we didn’t know exactly how the aether was oriented in space, what its direction was or how it was flowing, or what was at rest with respect to it, presumably — like Newtonian space — it was absolute. It existed independently of matter, as it must considering that light could travel where sound could not: in a vacuum.

So, in principle, if you measured the speed at which light moved when the Earth was moving “upstream” or “downstream” (or perpendicular to the aether’s “stream”, for that matter), you could not only detect the existence of the aether, you could determine what the rest frame of the Universe was!

the speed of light is something like 186,282 miles-per-second (Michelson knew it to be 186,350 ± 30 miles-per-second), while the Earth’s orbital speed is only about 18.5 miles-per-second, something we weren’t good enough to measure in the 1880s.

But Michelson had a trick up his sleeve.

The original design of a Michelson interferometer.

Albert Abraham Michelson, 1881

The original design of a Michelson interferometer.

In 1881, Michelson developed and designed what’s now known as a Michelson interferometer, which was absolutely brilliant. What it did was built on the fact that light — being made of waves — interferes with itself. And in particular, if he took a light wave, split it into two components that were perpendicular to one another (and hence, moving differently with respect to the aether), and had the two beams travel exactly identical distances and then reflect them back towards one another, he would observe a shift in the interference pattern generated by them!

You see, if the entire apparatus was stationary with respect to the aether, there would be no shift in the interference pattern they made, but if it moves at all in one direction more than the other, you would get a shift.

If you split light into two perpendicular components and bring them back together, they'll interfere. If you move in one direction versus another, that interference pattern will shift.

Wikimedia commons user Stigmatella aurantiaca

If you split light into two perpendicular components and bring them back together, they’ll interfere. If you move in one direction versus another, that interference pattern will shift.

Michelson’s original design was unable to detect any shift, but with an arm length of just 1.2 meters, his expected shift of 0.04 fringes was just above the limit of what he could detect, which was about 0.02 fringes.

There were also alternatives to the idea that the aether was purely stationary — such as the idea that it was dragged by the Earth (although it couldn’t be completely, because of observations of how stellar aberration worked) — so he performed the experiment at multiple times throughout the day, as the rotating Earth would have to be oriented at different angles with respect to the aether.

The null result was interesting, but not completely convincing. Over the subsequent six years, he designed an interferometer 10 times as large (and hence, ten times as precise) with Edward Morley, and the two of them in 1887 performed what’s now known as the Michelson-Morley experiment.

They expected a fringe-shift throughout the day of up to 0.4 fringes, with an accuracy down to 0.01 fringes.

Thanks to the internet, here are the original 1887 results!

The lack of an observed shift, despite the necessary sensitivity and the theoretical predictions, was an incredible achievement that led to the development of modern physics.

Michelson, A. A.; Morley, E. (1887). “On the Relative Motion of the Earth and the Luminiferous Ether”. American Journal of Science 34 (203): 333–345

The lack of an observed shift, despite the necessary sensitivity and the theoretical predictions, was an incredible achievement that led to the development of modern physics.

This null result — the fact that there was no luminiferous aether — was actually a huge advance for modern science, as it meant that light must have been inherently different from all other waves that we knew of.

The resolution came 18 years later, when Einstein’s theory of special relativity came along. And with it, we gained the recognition that the speed of light was a universal constant in all reference frames, that there was no absolute space or absolute time, and — finally — that light needed nothing more than space and time to travel through.

Albert Michelson won the Nobel Prize in 1907 for his work developing the interferometer and the advances made because of his measurements. It was the most important null result in scientific history.

Nobel foundation, via nobelprize.org

Albert Michelson won the Nobel Prize in 1907 for his work developing the interferometer and the advances made because of his measurements. It was the most important null result in scientific history.

The experiment — and Michelson’s body of work — was so revolutionary that he became the only person in history to have won a Nobel Prize for a very precise non-discovery of anything. The experiment itself may have been a complete failure, but what we learned from it was a greater boon to humanity and our understanding of the Universe than any success would have been!

Astrophysicist and author Ethan Siegel is the founder and primary writer of Starts With A Bang! Check out his first book, Beyond The Galaxy, and look for his second, Treknology, this October!

Notes and comments on FB. Part 29

La langue vulgaire “de la nourrice et du Paradis”. After Beatrice, Dante’s love, died in 1290, Dante started to write in Italian instead of Latin.

After Dante’s love Beatrice died in 1290, a century of Florence enlightenment ended by the start of civil war that lasted for decades. Most of the other cities in North Italy followed suit in social strife: The people wanted to overthrow the nobility that owned the horses, Capital and the weapons.

Sans folie, personne ne posera des questions provocantes ou renouvellera ses pensées.  Qui oserait penser a l’amour si la folie ne lui fait bouillonner le sang?

Il ne faut pas etre superstitieux: Si tu réve d’un médecin de l’hopital, ne court pas chez le notaire pour faire ton testament.

Lorsque passaient les Croisés, les populations d’Europe se precipitaient dans les églises pour y chercher refuge: Ces Coeur de Lion de chevaliers étaient obligés de laisser des victims en se dirigeant vers le soleil couchant (le Levant).

Incest is already part of our genes: No need to overblow our preference for our close relatives, in adolescence.

Why “al Jarida al Rasmiyya” has stopped being delivered to the library of Fares Zoghbeh? Late Maitre Phares Zoghbeh is turning mad in his tomb. A few lawyers want to read it in this library.

La premiere partie du corps que mes yeux contemple sont les pieds et la cheville. Si j’en suis satisfait, tout le reste est acceptable. Les femmes le  savent implicitement et prennent grand soin

I’m observing a strange cycle on Tweeter. For 2 weeks now, the number of Followers increase every day and the next day drops to this magic number of 221? Any explanations?

Si on garde un petit coin de dignité, c’est pour qu’on ait quelque chose a céder, le temps voulu.

Aprés avoir accepté la lacheté, la servitude, la bombe a hydrogen, les genocide… on comprend mal de quel droit on ferait les dégoutés et les difficiles

Je me prenais trop au sérieux et manquais d’humour et d’humilité. Je n’avais pas explore la génerosité de la nature humaine.

Les gens doivent avoir le droit de manger sans conditions.

Je n’avais pas mange depuis la veille. J’ai vu un brave bourgeois manger un chateaubriand aux pomme-vapeur. Et je m’ évanouis. Pas de faim, mais de rage, d’indignation et d’humiliation.

Il me fallut beaucoup de temps pour admettre que le lecteur avait droit a certains égards: comme lui indiquer le numero de la chamber, lui donner la clef et l’accompagner a l’étage et lui montrer les objects de premiére necessité. Bref, je n’ai cure de ce type de lecteur paresseux: c’est pas moi qui va l’instruire.

J’ai toujours eu faim devant le spectacle de la beauté, surtout d’une beauté

La plupart du temps je suis un athée invetéré. Et pourtant, le mot athée est insupportable quand je l’entend des bourgeois suffisants.

Avant sa crise religieuse, ma mére parlait de Dieu avec un respect bourgeois de quelqu’un qui a trés bien réussi.

La jolie fille de la charcutiére fit a ma mére une grande scene de larmes, de menaces de suicide et d’autodafé: ma mére fut trés flattée

La jolie fille dit a ma mére: Ton fils m’a fait lire du Proust, du Tolstoi et du Dostoieski. Qu’est-ce-que je vais devenir s’il ne m’épouse pas?

I know my limitations. My capacities? None. I know though my character.

The US is luring the foreign Daesh fighters in Syria into operations of mass suicides: Deir el Zour, Tadmor… Purpose? Exhausting Syrian army and delaying the Re-conquista

The foreign fighters in Syria prefer to die in the battle fields: their home States want Nothing to do with them, Not even be returned in coffins

Erdogan of Turkey will be remembered as a leader of infamy: He let the foreign fighters cross the borders into Syria, a one-way ticket, for assured perdition

Un écrivain renomé me dit: Rapelles-toi mon garcon que toutes les femmes sont des garces. et ells ont le monopole. J’ai écrit 7 roman lá-dessus. Prenez cela comme une promesse d’avenir

Les femmes experimentées préferent les hommes qui ont acquis la patience et ont l’autorité calme et assuré: des murriers mature?

Le mot de passe autour du basin Mediterraneen pour eviter les amandes: Eh quoi, la vie est belle.

Je n’ai plus jamais été trompé par une femme depuis: je n’ai plus jamais attend sous la pluie pour les surveiller ou les retrouver.

Dans ce déreglement generalise, peut-etre aimer quelqu’un est le dernier recours de resister au désespoire. C’est comme chercher un resistant plus acharné.

On sent la déveine et le destin fané, avant de voir la demeure, un parfum de vieille école, croulant sous l’impuissance de l’intention bien, mais mal active.

Un recouvreur de dette: Mon boulot est d’éviter que les choses se gates. La chemise des documents est gonflée a 90% de papiers qui n’ont rien a voir avec le dossier: un gros dossier impressionne méchamment.

Marie-Therese d’Autriche (1717-1780) n’était pas seulement la mere de Marie-Antoinette de France: elle regna en souveraine absolue Durant 40 ans sur l’empire le plus vaste d’Europe et avait due gérer 16 enfants.

La Florence Republicaine de 1295, les nobles devaient s’inscrire a une corporation, pour la forme, afin d’avoir le droit d’occuper les postes éphemere de charge publique de 3 mois (Faire de la politique)


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