Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘Afghanistan

Is Afghanistan Strategic? Ever more so, though too late for the USA… 

Did you hear of Carlos Bulgeroni?

There is great avidity for the oil and gas originating from Central Asia (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kirghistan, and particularly Kazakhstan)

He is an Argentine entrepreneur, founder of Bridas, the 4th largest oil company in Latin America.

In 1992, Carlos snatched a couple of pipeline oil and gas concessions from Turkmenistan. One of the pipeline was to end in Multan (Pakistan port) and must cross Afghanistan from north to south and passing in the valleys of Afghanistan close to Kandahar. This was the $3 bn Daulatabad project.

Unocal (12th largest US oil company) and founded by Roger Beach join in the project. Unocal brought in the Saudi oil company Delta Oil in order to bypass the signed deal with Bridas.

Another planned pipeline was the Chardzhou pipeline joining Turkmenistan to Gwadar (Pakistan port on the Gulf) and crossing Afghanistan and passing close to Herat.

Otherwise, the pipelines had to cross Russia, Iran, and pass by Azerbaijan and eventually end on the Mediterranean Sea (Turkey and Syria)

In 1994, the US, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan fully supported the new militia forces of Taliban (Students in religion) in Kandahar on the premise that this force is not tribal and can bring security and stability to Afghanistan.

These students attended religious madrassa tightly linked to the Indian Koranic school of Deobandi, a sect that prohibits the cult of saints. This sect is mainly a Wahhabi brand of Sunni sect as predominant in Saudi Arabia.

Taliban did bring security and stability at the expense of everything else: freedom of opinion, of expression, of education, and denial of women’s basic rights… and demolishing all the monuments that are not related to their Wahhabi brand of Islam.

The only lukewarm condition of the US was to kick out Ussama bin Ladden and his Qaeda from Afghanistan.

The Taliban were happy to oblige, but they failed to reckon with the large web of Ussama in the Afghan’s fabrics.

Ussama decided to punish the US and started to plan the blasting of the World Trade Center (1996) and partially succeeded.

In September 11, 2001, the Twin Towers fell. Most of the kamikaze were Saudi Wahhabi.

Mind you that Ussama made sure that the strong leader Massoud of the Tajik forces in North-East Afghanistan is assassinated: He was trying to prevent the US from finding a unified front to launch its ground invasion.

Too late. Russia got hold of 90% of the oil and gas concessions in central Asia and signed deals with China to buy of the oil and gas for the next decade.

The central Asia pipelines are crossing Russia toward china and many of them are done and functional.

Note: The late Saudi Turki Al Faisal was the chief of Saudi secret services GID at the period and this monarchy has been supporting the terrorist Islamic factions for over 3 decades.

Currently, these factions are pissed off with their “monarchy and the 5,000 princes” who used and abused of them for so long and refuse to admit them back home after serving in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen and Syria… Saudi Arabia is about to brace for a civil war, with trained and extremists “revolutionaries”, more obscurantist than their monarchy.

Yesterday, the monarch Abdullah announced that the former minister of the interior and GID chief Mokri, the youngest son (35 of them) of the founder Saud bi Abdul Aziz, to become the third in line for the monarchy.

 

 

 

“I worked on the US drone program”: What the public should know…

Whenever I read comments by politicians defending the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Predator and Reaper program – aka drones – I wish I could ask them  a few questions:

1. “How many women and children have you seen incinerated by a Hellfire missile?” And

2. “How many men have you seen crawl across a field, trying to make it to the nearest compound for help while bleeding out from severed legs?” Or even more pointedly:

3. “How many soldiers have you seen die on the side of a road in Afghanistan because our ever-so-accurate UAVs [unmanned aerial vehicle] were unable to detect an IED [improvised explosive device] that awaited their convoy?”

Few of these politicians who so brazenly proclaim the benefits of drones have any real clue of what actually goes on.

I, on the other hand, have seen these awful sights first

Hermes 450 drone

An Elbit Systems Hermes 450 drone. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

I knew the names of some of the young soldiers I saw bleed to death on the side of a road. I watched dozens of military-aged males die in Afghanistan, in empty fields, along riversides, and some right outside the compound where their family was waiting for them to return home from mosque.

The US and British military insist that this is such an expert program, but it’s curious that they feel the need to deliver faulty information, few or no statistics about civilian deaths and twisted technology reports on the capabilities of our UAVs.

These specific incidents are not isolated, and the civilian casualty rate has not changed, despite what our defense representatives might like to tell us.

What the public needs to understand is that the video provided by a drone is a far cry from clear enough to detect someone carrying a weapon, even on a crystal-clear day with limited clouds and perfect light.

This makes it incredibly difficult for the best analysts to identify if someone has weapons for sure.

One example comes to mind: “The feed is so pixelated, what if it’s a shovel, and not a weapon?

I felt this confusion constantly, as did my fellow UAV analysts. We always wonder if we killed the right people, if we endangered the wrong people, if we destroyed an innocent civilian’s life all because of a bad image or angle.

It’s also important for the public to grasp that there are human beings operating and analyzing intelligence these UAVs.

I know because I was one of them, and nothing can prepare you for an almost daily routine of flying combat aerial surveillance missions over a war zone.

UAV proponents claim that troops who do this kind of work are not affected by observing this combat because they are never directly in danger physically.

But here’s the thing: I may not have been on the ground in Afghanistan, but I watched parts of the conflict in great detail on a screen for days on end.

I know the feeling you experience when you see someone die. Horrifying barely covers it.

And when you are exposed to it over and over again it becomes like a small video, embedded in your head, forever on repeat, causing psychological pain and suffering that many people will hopefully never experience.

UAV troops are victim to not only the haunting memories of this work that they carry with them, but also the guilt of always being a little unsure of how accurate their confirmations of weapons or identification of hostile individuals were.

Of course, we are trained to not experience these feelings, and we fight it, and become bitter. Some troops seek help in mental health clinics provided by the military, but we are limited on who we can talk to and where, because of the secrecy of our missions.

I find it interesting that the suicide statistics in this career field aren’t reported, nor are the data on how many troops working in UAV positions are heavily medicated for depression, sleep disorders and anxiety.

Recently, the Guardian ran a commentary by Britain’s secretary of state for defence Philip Hammond. I wish I could talk to him about the two friends and colleagues I lost, within one year leaving the military, to suicide.

I am sure he has not been notified of that little bit of the secret UAV program, or he would surely take a closer look at the full scope of the program before defending it again.

The UAV’s in the Middle East are used as a weapon, not as protection, and as long as our public remains ignorant to this, this serious threat to the sanctity of human life – at home and abroad – will continue.

108,000 Private Contractors Are in Afghanistan and We Have No Idea What They’re Doing

Two recently released reports, one by the Congressional Research Service (CRS) and one by the Government Accountability Office (GAO), show that the number of private contractors in Afghanistan increasing, and that the Pentagon is also unable to tell what they are even doing there.

Citing the reports, David Francis of the Fiscal Times points out that there are now 108,000 private contractors in Afghanistan,  (over 30,000 of whom are Americans) and about 18,000 private security contractors. Far more than the 65,700 U.S. troops still there, and the number was counted at 110,404 last month. That amounts to 1.6 contractors for every American soldier.

Aubrey Bloomfield published in World on June 4, 2013:

Although the U.S. presence in Afghanistan is ostensibly winding down towards an eventual handover to Afghan security forces, as Francis argues, “the increase in the contractors to troop ratio is yet another indication that a private army will remain in the country for years.”

108,000, private, contractors, are, in, afghanistan, and, we, have, no, idea, what, theyre, doing,

108000 Private Contractors Are in Afghanistan and We Have No Idea What Theyre Doing

According to the CRS, the U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan show the increasing reliance of the military on private contractors. But replacing the military with private contractors is not necessarily a good thing.

Highlighting the abuses committed by private military contractors, Angela Snell of the University of Illinois College of Law has called this trend a “convenient way for the U.S. government to evade its legal obligations, including the responsibility to protect the human rights of civilians in war and peace, by allowing private individuals, rather than official state actors, to perform services on behalf of the U.S. military.”

The growing use of private contractors give lie to the idea of a withdrawal from the country, and they are also very costly. Although still dwarfed by the ever-mounting total costs of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, CRS reports that “over the last six fiscal years, DOD [Department of Defense] obligations for contracts performed in the Iraq and Afghanistan areas of operation were approximately $160 billion and exceeded total contract obligations of any other U.S. federal agency.”

Francis points out that the CRS and GAO did not just measure the number of contractors and the cost, but the reports also assessed the Pentagon’s ability to monitor the work of contractors. And the results are damning. According to Francis, taken together the reports:

“Amount to yet another indictment of how the Pentagon deals with private workers. CRS found that the Pentagon lacked the ability to document the work each contractor is performing. It also found even when the government has information on contractors, it’s often inaccurate and doesn’t reflect the actual work being done. This leaves the Pentagon unable to determine if the hundreds of billions it’s spending are leading to effective results.”

So despite the increasing number of private contractors being used and the hundreds of billions of dollars being spent on them, the Pentagon is not even able to determine what they are doing or whether it is effective.

As CRS reports, the information the Pentagon has on private contractors is probably not reliable enough to be used to make decisions “at the strategic level,” thus hindering its ability to tell whether the work of contractors is contributing to “achieving the mission.”

The U.S.-led wars in Iraq and Afghanistan have been massive, and destructive, wastes of lives and money.

Although the U.S. and its allies say that they plan to remove combat troops from Afghanistan by 2014, this will in no way be the end of the West’s presence in the country.

Francis reports that much of the work currently done by the military will be done by the private contractors after the military leaves. So while the attention paid to Afghanistan is likely to continue to dwindle even further, as has been the case in Iraq, as the military withdrawal picks up, the foreign occupation, by what one analyst has called “a de facto army,” looks set to continue on.

Picture Credit: U.S. Air Force

What do we know of the people in Afghanistan?

According to the UN reports, death from land mines in Afghanistan resulted in 200,000 civilian casualties.

This country is infected with 10 million antipersonnel mines. Over 30% of the victims are children.

Everyday, 20 civilians are victims of mines, half of them die within the next couple of days.

Over 20% of the cluster bombs have not detonated and millions have been dropped on Afghanistan since 1981, first by the Soviet troops and then by the NATO forces, lead by the USA after 1992. Every “mother cluster bomb” that explodes before reaching the ground releases 202 tiny can-sized bombs, which children likes to collect…

Over 12 States manufacture cluster bombs and phosphorous bombs such as the US, Russia, China, France, England, Turkey, Israel, Pakistan…

The US has over 50 military bases in Afghanistan. The base in Kandahar hosts 40,000 US soldiers, living the US life-style in a temperature crossing 40 degrees Celsius: Air conditioned rooms, sauna, swimming pools,  all food products imported from the US, military hospitals…

The base in Bagram has 25,000 soldiers.  Most of these bases, particularly in the north will remain after the US withdrawal in 2014: Central Asia is rich in oil and raw materials.

Everyday, dozens of huge convoys of over 50 huge transport trucks deliver all the necessary subsistence.  The convoys cross thousands of miles, coming mostly from Pakistan.

When Pakistan closes its borders due to drones harvesting Pakistani civilians, each container cost $5,000 or 30 folds its normal price.  The US likes to maintain the US life-style in its military bases, whatever is the cost.

In 2011, the US moved 35,000 containers via Pakistan

Private US security companies are paid $2,000 per delivered container. Although the main groups securing the routes are the Taliban and warlords.

For example, the HQ of the 450 logistics battalion reported that the Taliban militias and warlords cash in:

1. $500 per truck from Kandahar to Herat

2. $50 from Kabul to Ghazni

3. $100 from Ghazni to Orgun…

In order to aceed to the military bases of Paktika, a Taliban leader is paid $150,000 per month

Censoring the harsh realities of war. ~Cypher

Afghanistan has 30 million “citizens” grouped in tribes.

9 million live under an absolute poverty level of a single dollar per day, 37% live with two dollars, even after injecting $35 billion between 2002 and 2009.

Only 13% have access to potable water and 6% enjoy some form of electricity

The UN human development indicators places Afghanistan in the rank of 188 among the UN recognized States

Life expectancy is 45 years

Rate of alphabetization is less than 30%

50% of children below the age of 5 suffer chronic malnutrition

Note 1: Funds invested in military operations is 15 times what has been spent on development in Afghanistan. Afghanistan produces 80% of the world opium, under the watch and agreement of the US administration. This production supports the warlords and the Taliban cash requirement.

Note 2: Iran is the only border country to have effectively stopped the infiltration of the opium mafia and warlords through its borders, at huge cost in manpower and soldiers who were not better equipped as the mafia mercenaries a few years ago.

Note 3: Most of the hospitals in Kabul are privately owned after the Afghan government decided for hospitals to be administered by the higher education ministry, instead of the health ministry. The physicians and surgeons visit the public hospitals just to select the patients who can afford to pay in their private clinics.

Note 4: Many of the information were taken from “The devastation” by the French/Afghan neurosurgeon Ahmad Ashraf

Bigotry and indolence: What a miserable couple

Apparently, Western Europeans and Jews of  “noble classes” were sent to Buchenwald, whereas Eastern Europeans, the gypsies, and the poorer Jews from the ghettos and shtetl were shipped to the Polish concentration camp of Auschwitz.  Many Jews in Auschwitz were directed to gas chambers while the prisoners in Buchenwald mostly died of famine, diseases, and poor health.  Prisoners in Buchenwald had a higher probability of surviving and returned from the camps in the shape of skeletal.  The Zionist movement named the Shoah to mean only the returning Jews from Nazi camps.

The Western media would like to repeat that “Arabs” (always lumped together regardless of States or religions or locations) are blind to the Shoah.  First, no Jews in “Arab” lands were sent to concentration camps in order for them to see returning Jews from the Shoah.

Second, the few returning Jews who immigrated to Palestine were isolated in agricultural collectivities or members of terrorist Zionist groups such as the Irgun, Stern, or the Haganah.  The returning Jews were terrorizing and harassing Palestinians in their towns and villages and massacring all of them, children and women.  The only returning Jews that the Palestinians might have seen were wearing guns and demolishing their homes without warning, the random violence tactics of terror organizations.

Third, the “Arabs” were prisoners in their own Ottoman caste system and suffered isolation and ignorance for over five centuries.  They barely saw the next town communities!  The Western nation governments and colonial powers never raised any monument for the suffering Arab and Palestinian Shoah, or cared to establishing a homeland for them.

They say that Zionism encourages Jews to be blinded by the Shoah.  Most probably, it is the Western media and governments doing their best to demonstrate outrageous penitence by supporting all kinds of horrible activities against human rights by the Israeli State.

Apartheid policies of Israel against Palestinians (the other miserable face of the Shoah)  are not deemed that serious to be condemned at the UN or economic,  financial, and military embargoes levied against Israel.  The new generations of Jews in Israel are tired of constant reminders of the holocaust and succumbing to another one.  They want out of the three years military service and killing as many Palestinians at point-blank.

In 1982, Lebanon was suffering a terrible civil war.  Lebanese killing one another, Palestinians killing one another and Syria had invaded Lebanon at the urge of the US.  And here you have Israel Menahem Begin PM proclaiming: “Israel must invade Lebanon or suffer another Auschwitz.”  What?  What Auschwitz had to do with a preemptive war that permitted Israel to occupying South Lebanon for 25 years?  Israel frequently deliver the stupidest reasons for invading neighboring  “Arab” States.

Zionism insists that “The Shoah is our pain and our affair; a secret that nobody else can comprehend”.  What, Armenians cannot comprehend their plight and shouldn’t have their own “secret”? What about the Slaves, the Gypsies, the homosexuals and the many minorities that died in Nazi concentration camps?  What about the current holocaust in Rwanda, Congo, Pakistan, Kosovo, Chechnya, Afghanistan, Palestine, and Lebanon?

Regis Debray should revise a long paragraph that sounds infamous to the Palestinians.  He wrote: “You see pictures of a Palestinian child getting out of a cave with arms raised; an old decrepit man on the ground being kicked by Israeli soldiers; an old woman in tattered cloth with joined hands imploring an Israeli soldier (to releasing her kid or letting her cross a barrier to go to a hospital)… The difference is that all these Palestinians are not going to any gas chambers.  They will serve ten years of prison without any due judicial procedures, they will get out crippled and handicapped, but they are not sent to gas chambers”

This is how Western writers have to apologize for the Shoah and their devoid meaning of penitence.

The British and French mandated powers in the Middle-East, along with their protegé the Zionist movement, were the initiator of random violence, of creating terror organizations, and planning and executing countless genocides, years before Nazi Germany came to power and emulated and fine-tuned their programs of crimes against humanity.

Fact is, Nazi Germany learned and assimilated the previous methods of humiliating indigenous people, applied by the British, French, and Zionist criminal organizations in Palestine and Syria. Fact is, Nazi Germany applied the racist check-list administered by the US to the immigrants, flocking to the land of “The Free”.

Do you remember the carpet bombing of Dresden in Germany?  Over 150,000 German civilians were burned carbonized by tons of phosphorous bombs.  Dresden had no military headquarters, no military factories, no industries…and it was destroyed to the ground.

Do you remember the carpet bombing in Viet Nam, Beirut, Gaza, Iraq…? Israel is still using phosphorous bombs in Lebanon and recently in Gaza (2008), as well as cluster bombs, 4 million of them peppered in south Lebanon in 2006…

They were the Masters of ignominious activities and still are.  The western powers and Israel may frequently try hard to sweep under the carpet their consistent tendency for criminal activities against the developing people, through intermediaries and mercenaries.  They are still funding, training, and planning for random violence through factions of religious extremists and racist mercenaries.

The citizens of the Free World are making the effort to going beyond indolence and bigotry to confronting the sustained efforts of the colonial mentality of apartheid. The citizens of the emerging Free World don’t want anything to do with humiliating the developing people to the altar of the vested interests of the 1% richest classes…

Note:  You may read this post on race…https://adonis49.wordpress.com/2010/07/25/what-is-your-race-i-mean-ethnic-origin/

Did Tamerlane (Timor Lank) Create Empires?

There is this army commander of the 14th century who kept his army on the march longer (for over 25 years) and crossed more lands than Alexander, Genghis Khan, or Attila and conquered more Empires and was never defeated and slept in his tent, outside city-limits, even in his Capital Samarkand (in current Uzbekistan).

The Persian gave him the nickname Lank because he was slightly lame in one leg.  This is Timor Lank who was not the son of any Monarch, prince, or even a tribal leader.

Timor Lank was from the Caucasus region (probably around the region of Azerbaijan and Chechnya (I get pretty upset when history authors fail to located current geographical areas and just paste the ancient names).

He was a Moslem and veneered Imams and clerics claimed to be descendants of the Prophet Muhammad’s family, and who wore the black turban.

Otherwise, he didn’t give a hoot about Moslems when conquering lands and people. He killed mostly Moslems since the vast area of his operations were mostly Islam Land.

For example, he built pyramids of skulls: 60,000 heads in Asfahan (Iran), 3,000 in Aleppo, and many other skull pyramids in India…

First, Timor Lank chased out the Tatar “Golden Hordes” (led by a descendant of Genghis Khan) along the Volga River (current Russia) and burned and sacked all their cities and villages.  He did not resume his operations, but by the end of his war, the Golden Hordes were weakened and displaced.  It was the fate of the Russian Tsar, Ivan the Terrible, to finish off the job against the Tatars in the 16th century and expand his Empire. You may claim that Tamerlane ultimately created current Russia.

Timor Lank captured Samarkand and made it its Capital.

He descended on Persia and conquered this Empire and beheaded over 60,000 of the population in Isfahan and piled up the head in shapes of pyramids.  This city surrendered peacefully and Timor Lank had no plans to occupy it; he was just crossing!

It happened that for a few cases of rape within the city by Timor Lank’s garrison of 500 soldiers, the inhabitants slaughtered the soldiers.  Timor Lank was camping outside city limit, always in his tent. And the reaction was a nightmare on the city inhabitants.

The commander moved on toward Turkey in 1400.  The Turkish Sultan army was completely demolished and the Sultan was put in a tiny cage so that Timor Lank could use it as a stool to mount his horse. This commander could have conquered all of Turkey, but instead he headed south to enter Aleppo and Damascus in Syria.

If Timor Lank had not vanquished the Turkish army then the Byzantium Capital of Constantinople would have fallen 50 years earlier along with most of Europe.

There would be no Western Europe or the Renaissance:  at that time, the enmities between Genoa and Venice was at its zenith, the Kingdom of Poland was weak, there was no Russian Empire, and the King Henry of Portugal had not begun challenging the high seas to discover new routes to India and the Far East.

And the King of France Charles 8 would not have entered and ruined Rome and displaced the skilled artisans and thinkers, located and concentrated in Papal Rome, to all over western Europe that started the Renaissance.

In the 13th century, the Mameluke Sultan of Egypt had moved out from Egypt with his army and defeated the Mogul army of Hulagu in Palestine around 1250.  This time around, the Mameluke Sultan did not venture to come out to rescue his vassals  in Syria.

Damascus put up a serious fight, but Timor Lank tactics were always to destabilize any city before setting siege.  The skilled people in Syria and Palestine were sent to build and develop Samarkand. (That is the story of the Levant since antiquity: armies conquer The Levant to capture its skilled workers.)

The Ottoman Sultan would later defeat the Mameluke Sultan in the 16th century and conquer Syria, Palestine, Egypt, and all North African countries.

Timor Lank conquered Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.

One of Timor Lank offspring would establish the Mogul Empire in India (the Punjab) that lasted over 5 centuries.  The British Empire would finally take over all of India by the end of the 19th century, but failed to retain Afghanistan after two bloody massacres of its troops.

The British had drawn the current borders among Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, and Kashmir.  As well as drawing many other borders in the Middle-East and Africa with colonial France

This ruthless commander Tamerlane was getting ready to march on China when he died at the age of 63.

Note:  My published novel on wordpress.com “Rainbow over the Levant” is set in that time period.

Iraq:  What after the withdrawal of US troops?

US troops are supposed to withdraw completely from Iraq in 2011 (it is done, and Iraqis celebrated, and the US soldiers celebrated, and the US soldiers in Afghanistan are preparing to celebrate next year…)

So far, 50,000 soldiers have been transferred to Afghanistan from Iraq via two main routes.  The mostly used route is heading south of Iraq by sea and ocean, toward Pakistan and then forward by land to southern Afghanistan. The second route is going north of Iraq toward the Kurdish enclaves, Turkey, Azerbaijan, river routes, and entering Tajikistan to north Afghanistan.

It seems that moving troops and materials from Iraq to Afghanistan is one of the most complex logistic headaches of all time.  The US has to have deals with over two dozen States for the transport to reach destination relatively safely: any trouble at any junction and the logistic plans go awry for many months. The logistics troubles have surfaced violently: The safest and quickest route to Afghanistan via Pakistan is no longer that safe, that fast, or as economical:  Pakistan society is very unhelpful and unfriendly with the US taking casual liberty with their drones, bombing communities and friendly allies on the ground of mistaken identity…The collateral damage in this war far outnumbers the few tracked and targeted “terrorists”

What of Iraq after the withdrawal of US troops?  Iraq will still be a member of the United Nations in the form; Iraq will still be “independent” with a central government in the books, as is the case of the status of Lebanon.  In reality, Iraq will be controlled by three regional powers and the US.

A few districts around the Capital Bagdad will be under direct rule of the central government; the districts in the south around Basra and in the Kurdish north-east region will be self autonomous under the indirect supervision of Iran; the districts in the Kurdish northwest will be under Turkish supervision; districts in the west will be mandated to Syria, and a few districts in the Kurdish zone will be reserved to the two main Kurdish parties and supported by the US.

The two parliamentary elections and the time required to forming governments prove that forming union government is directly related to agreement and consensus with Iran, Syria, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the US.  The complex political structure in Iraq after the invasion is far worse than Lebanon’s.  Lebanon has to negotiate with 18 formal religious sects and two regional powers (Syria and Iran) and the US.

Iraq has more religious sects and many ethnic diversity than Lebanon.  Iraq has two main Islamic sects of Sunni and Shia (Chiaa) and dozens of minority Christian sects and Yazd.  Iraq has basically four ethnic groups: The Sunni Arabs, the Chiaa Arabs, the Chiaa Persian of origin, and many Kurdish ethnic bordering Turkey, Syria, and Iran.

Iraq has to negotiate with the US, Russia, and China in addition to four regional powers.  Thus, forming a union government in Iraq is not an easy endeavor.

Oil revenue will “logically” be shared with districts proportionally to population and the level of pollution generated from extracting oil and refining it (rational guesses).  A large portion will be allocated to central government and the federal army.  Regional power control will be exercised through two main mechanisms:

First, the high level public servants in the autonomous regions will be appointed by the respective regional powers and

Second, each regional power will have its lead political men in the highest echelons in the government, Parliament, and central public servant administrations.

Weak central governments have distinct characteristics:

First, reforms are incremental after exhaustive consensus procedures;

Second, crucial decisions are taken in consensus, and

Third, foreign policies in the main lines are uncompromising in order not to disturb internal coherence.

There are advantages to this potential future Iraqi status.

First, Iran’s huge interests and dominant influence in Iraq will have the most at stake for the stability of Iraq.  Thus, the stability of Iraq will be the best guarantor for cooling off any expansionist policies in the Arab/Persian Gulf such as Bahrain and Oman.

Second, Syria interests in a stable Iraq will strengthen its alliance with Iran with more glitches to iron out.  For example, Syria will have to seek greater ties with Turkey in order to counter balance Iran’s overwhelming influence in Iraq. (With current Syria mass revolts and Turkey getting involved against the regime, Syria has no choice but to tighten its links with Iran and Russia…)

Third, Israel’s intelligence agencies in Iraq and the Kurdish regions, which  grew astronomically after the invasion in 2003, will be disbanded gradually:  The regional powers will supervise tightly Israel’s interferences in Iraq.  For example, the visit of Kurdish leader Barazani to Turkey Erdogan has a major purpose to clipping Israel’s intelligence activities in the Kurdish regions. Israel had increased in the last two years its destabilizing schemes in Turkey.

Iraq has been in fact subdivided according to the US objective before invading Iraq in 2003.  Iraq has no alternative but to be a central junction of the economic union among Turkey, Iran and Syria. Such a strategic location will witness massive investment in Iraq’s infrastructure  for communication, transport, warehouses, ports, and oil pipelines.

Iraq will be the next Dubai with vaster wealth and strategic needs but no tangible independence as a State.

Note:  The highest Chiaa religious authority, ayatollah Sistani and residing in Najaf (Iraq), is adamantly opposed to any federal political structure; this is a commendable attitude but the stability of Iraq at this junction is close cooperation with the three powerful border regional powers of Iran, Syria, and Turkey.

Sovereignty is a very loose robe that fits vast countries, large population, and a history of resilience and determination to paying the exorbitant price for the luxury of dignity and being recognized as an intrinsic civilization “under the sun”. You may read one of my other posts on Iraq https://adonis49.wordpress.com/2008/09/25/why-the-invasion-of-iraq-because-of-china/

Barack Obama’s first year performance 

            Bill Adair (Pulitzer Prize) published the Obama program that included 510 promises. Promises being executed are 240 promises, 86 promises were kept, 26 were compromised, and 62 were blocked by the oppositions.

            First, let me present a rundown of the major promises according to the previous categories.

            For promises being executed we have the following:

Creating 5 million “green jobs”

Restraining eavesdropping without authorization

Shutting down Guantanamo prison center

Stopping the usage of torture

Creating CO2 emission market

Creating a universal health plan that added 30 million more citizen benefiting of coverage

Setting up new financial regulations

Repealing the tax cut for the higher incomes

Reducing nuclear arms reserves in a verifiable manner

Re-enforcing antitrust laws that favor consumers

Reducing oil consumption of 35% by 2030

Securing borders by increasing personnel

            For promises kept we may mention

Sending two supplementary brigades to Afghanistan (30,000 soldiers)

Creating a fund to prevent further Real Estates foreclosures

Reforming prison terms to clear prison overpopulation

            For promises compromised we have

Creating a tax credit of $500 for employees

Requiring transparency in the process of budgetary credit by Deputies

            For promises blocked

Extending citizenship to immigrant with no work permit

            For promises betrayed

Obama failed in his promise to hardening regulations in the Administration on conflict of interests between public carriers and private jobs.  The worst transgressors are members in the International Monatary Fund (IMF), which is a public institution but functioning as if a private enterprise.

Note: Every now and then I edit and re-publish articles that passed unnoticed.  Since I first posted this article in January Obama had decided to use his authority as President to improve on Health Care Reforms without the need of Republican support.  Obama policies in the Middle East is still undecided and agravating the situation for his lack of personal involvement.

It is a virus: You scratch one spot and it spreads; (Jan. 29, 2010)

It is a virus; a sort of mushroom that spreads over your skin and inflicts crazy itching.

You start scratching one spot and you end up lapidating your entire body.  It has affected me for over a month.

I finally saw a physician, not a skin specialist, in the town dispensary and she told me that she witnesses many such cases lately.

The virus is in the air and that is how you are contaminated; many victims experienced lousy moments for many weeks.

The physician prescribed a single pill (costing $8) with effects that last for a week. Got to take another pill for a second week; that should take care of the mushroom.

The physician said that without the pill the itching takes 6 weeks to subside.

In my case and with the pill I should be okay within days: I was healed the next day.

I decided for the second pill to make sure that the mushroom is dead once and for all.  I am not sure: three weeks later and I am itching; not necessarily of mushroom; but what do I know?

Itching is not the main topic of this article: it just gave me a perfect analogy.  The virus is Israel.

If you say Israel is an apartheid State because it subjugates the Palestinian people to a different law of the land than the one applied on the Jew,s then Israel is upset.

If you say Israel is a theocratic State because it extends citizenship to any Jew who sets foot in Israel then Israel is angry.

Why, all of the over 600 religious laws that govern daily life, as applied by the Pharisee during Jesus time, are still valid and harshly controlled.

The secular Jews agree that Israel is back to the Dark Age, but how to convince the US neo-conservative “Christians” that this is so?

If you say that Israel is comfortable with ghetto-like environment because it cordonned off all its frontiers by walls (frontiers that are not yet delimited in its Constitution) then Israel is appalled

If you say Israel is a Sparta State because it believes in military resolution for any contention with any neighboring State then Israel is incensed. Why?

Israel is worse than Sparta: after 3 years of forced military service the citizen has to submit to a month per year in “the reserves” service.

If you say Israel has been committing crimes against humanity since before its inception in 1948, and Gaza is the latest in evidence, then Israel rejects Goldstone’s report in all its sections.

If you say Israel has a peculiar kind of “democracy” that was called “apartheid democracy” in South Africa where laws are selectively and not equitably applied on all citizens; or if you say that the kind of democracy applied in Israel is barely a developed version of City-States democracies of Antiquity such as applied in Athens, Tyr, or Sidon then Israel feels obfuscated.

I you say Israel refuses to grow up and abide by its responsibility as a member of the United Nations and respect UN decisions then Israel is furious: Israel constantly expects the US to cover up illegal activities with the veto power.

If you say the Arab States want peace for returning all the conquered lands in 1967 as proclaimed in 2002 Arab Summit in Beirut then Israel feels resentful and laughs it off.

If you say that Israel is a racist State because the UN declared “Zionism a form of racism” then Israel is up in arms to drop this statement.  Can you believe it?

Israel is investing money to demonstrate that Indians living in the region of Malihabad, (near Lucknow in the Uttar Pradesh), and known as Pathans Afridis are Jews from the tribe of Ephraim that lived in northern Galilee during Jesus time.

The Indian Shahnaz Ali was hired by Israel Institute of Technology to test the DNA of this “tribe” and hopefully extrapolate the results to include the Pashtoun tribes on the borders of Pakistan and Afghanistan.  Is that a form of racism? Since when any religion was based on race?

I did a rough estimate: I figured out that the Phoenicians are over one billion, give or take one standard deviation, and are spread over the five continents!

If you say that Israel is “the vastest psychiatric ward in the world with no treating personnel” then Israel is ready to lambaste the Israeli author as a schizophrenic, leftist, and probably “anti-Semitic” mole.

If you say that Israel is indeed a very, very peace loving State then Israel is infuriated because you are mocking it.  It is a virus.

No matter what you say is non receivable.

Best attitude is to censure your opinions and refrain from mentioning Israel, Jews, Judaism, Hebrew, or the Diaspora.

One term is admissible: Jews were gazed by Nazism and the number better be exact: 6 millions no less and not one over that scientifically reached number.

Repeat: Jews were gazed and not shot, poisoned, killed, trampled, or exterminated in any other form of “final solutions”.

Repeat: Exactly 6 millions or the holocaust literature would have to be republished; any number over 6 millions and Germany would be infuriated and Merkel would have to cancel the seventh nuclear submarines, built for free for the State of Israel, at Germans’ tax payer expenses; and for what use are these nuclear submarines put in service?  Maybe to support NATO policies?

It is a virus: mushroom or no mushroom you feel itching like crazy and Barack Obama and George Mitchell first of all.

How can I win the war on “Terrorism”? Part two; (Jan. 28, 2010)

            I set the fundamentals in part one.  This part dwells on details.  Ilyass Kashmiri is presumably the Pakistani leader of the Islamic Kashmir independence movement (from the Indian Kashmir region).  Ilyass’s movement is called Lashkar Al Zil (army of the shadow).  In Arabic, Zil means shade and Zol means indignity; thus, it depends how the word is understood or pronounced in that part of Pakistan.  Lashkar Al Zil was known as Brigade 055 (was it initially a brigade of the Pakistani army?) Lashkar Al Zil has vast networks for intelligence gathering.  It is understood that currently most of the radical Sunni Islamic movements, including Al Qaeda, are taking umbrage under Lashkar Al Zil and not the way around since it has established popular bases in many self-autonomous districts in north Pakistan.

            Ilyass Kashmiri may be orchestrating most of the suicidal operations in Pakistan and Afghanistan; his movement has extended its influence in Yemen and Somalia (Al Chabab). Saleh Al Somali was killed by a drone in Pakistan in 2008.  David Coleman Headly was arrested in Chicago for preparing the aggression on the Danish daily Jyllands-Posten; he participated in the Bombay massacre of November 2008 and Ilyass was one of Headly’s contacts.

            Another Al Qaeda leader working with Ilyass is Yahya Al Libi. Yahya Al Libi is from Libya and his pragmatic goal is to overthrow the Kadhafi regime. In the mean time, Yahya Al Libi is taking the strategy of antagonizing the Islamic Shiaa sect movements (the Shiaa are mostly concentrated in Iran, Iraq, and India); the bombing of the mosque in Ramadi (Iraq) is of his doing (23 dead); the bombing of the Shiaa mosque in Karachi (Pakistan) resulted in 30 dead victims.  Al Libi has a different strategy than Zawahiri (Egyptian and second in command in Al Qaeda) who wants to unite the forces of all Islamic forces.

            Ilyass and Yahaya want the Western forces to intervene militarily so that they can infiltrate the Islamic masses at no cost to them.  Currently, their first target is the Pakistani army that finally got carried away with the US pressures to attack the fundamentalists. The Pakistani government is realizing that the gamble was premature: the Pakistani army is suffering from this unpopular civil war and losing its status as the backbone for Pakistan unity among the various ethnic diversity groups.

            The Lashkar Al Zil and its Afghanistan allies are preparing a counter offensive as snow melts against the Pakistani army in the districts of Khyber, Kurram, Hungu, and Orakzai (in Pakistan) and in the valley of Tera (facing the Afghan mountain chains of Tora Bora).  Saudi Arabia is heavily involved in Yemen because this Wahhabi monarchy is conscious that the vise of the fundamentalist movements is closing on from all directions (Yemen, Somalia, Iraq, Iran, and eventually Egypt).  Saudi Arabia has extended $two billion to the Yemenite government and moved its army and air force in operations in Yemen. 

            Some people believe that the USA is indeed fomenting these Islamic movements in order to have excuses for militarily accesses in Yemen and Somalia, in addition to Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and the Arab Gulf mini-States.  People believe that the US wants to secure Africa and the oil shipments in the Middle East. People have reached this implicit feeling of US definite conspiracy from past evidences and because the US is the only superpower to dominate all the seas and oceans by its naval forces. Actually, the US drones have been bombing targets in the sub-Sahara States of Africa (Mauritania, Chad, and Niger) for sometimes.

            During the Bush Junior Administration, the CIA was extended the mission to develop its paramilitary branch (Special Activities Division SAD) in order to carry out vast secret operations.  The former “private security service” company of Blackwater (re-named Xe) was and is sub-contracting a few of these CIA secret operations. Currently, the US government is pressuring Congress to drop all judiciary cases leveled against Blackwater operators.

            The CIA was recently exposed by the suicide bombing of Humam Al Balawi in its Khost (Afghanistan) advanced post that killed 7 CIA agents and 6 other soldiers in December 2009. The Jordanian secret agent, Humam Al Balawi, was lent by Jordan to the CIA to facilitate intelligence gathering on extremist Sunni movements in Pakistan and Afghanistan.  The CIA installed a series of support bases in South and East of Afghanistan to gather intelligence for drone attacks on particular “targets” of extremist leaders.  The US military has boasted of killing over one hundred targets; most of the victims were civilians in “collateral damages”.  The increased number of civilian casualties prompted the Pakistani government to get involved in the rules of engagement and drone operations.

            The Afghan army is heavily infiltrated by Taliban elements: last week, the Capital Kabul awoke to a nightmare: it was rocked by 5 attacks on 5 government institutions, including the Presidential Palace of Karzai.

            What is happening in the region are series of civil wars; the factions are mainly borrowing the discourse of Al Qaeda but this movement is plainly limited to fringe countries in Africa.  Nevertheless, US Medias refuse to change the decades catch all term of Al Qaeda to means civil unrest and “terrorism” in Islamic states: they prefer disinformation instead of educating the public to the new realities. Is it simply because it is too “complex” for the little mind of the public to comprehend?

            So far, the US has heavily fallen in the trap of disseminating the image of fighting Islam instead of targeting “terrorist” bases.  More military involvement is bound to stick this image in the mind and heart of moderate Islamists who will be pressured to extend leniency attitudes to the extremist elements and factions.


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

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