Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘anchor for computation

Magic 70 and the horrible exponential growth

Never throw any percentage per year increases in vain.

1. What an inflation of 5% per year means? Divide 70 by 5= 14. Your dollar value will decrease by 50% in 14 years

2. Accident rate increasing by 7% per year? 70/7= 10. Accidents will double in 10 years

3. If you double a grain of rice for each square in the chess game, all the rice production in the world will not cover the last square.

4. Fold a paper 0.004 inch thick 50 times and the resulting thickness covers the distance from earth to the sun, or 70 million miles.

And what would be the global population if birth rate increases by 1%?  Would that mean the population should double in 70 years?

Help me out here. Suppose a fertile woman will give birth once every 3 years, and taking into account that women stop being fertile at age 40, and can give birth starting at age 15…

And that the average life expectancy is 50 overall, including all the deaths from diseases (mainly from the three very bad diseases such as malaria, dysenteric, AIDS), from famine, malnutrition, infantile mortality, miscarriages, killing the female fetus, civil wars, collateral damages, birth defects from “unlawful” ammunition, radio-active materials, toxic chemicals, road accidents….

How much global population will increase per year?

The best way is to adopt India as an anchor for your computation, on the ground that more than two third of mankind conditions and life-style resemble that of the Indian population.

In this case, all that the UN is to do is to fund periodic accurate census in India and the computation of estimates of most everything will be very close to target.




September 2021

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