Adonis Diaries

This historical wrong-timing calamity 4 decades mistake:How Lebanon civil war lasted that long?

Late Hafez Assad troops crosses Lebanon borders in 1976

Note: an update of my article posted in August 2018

This historical error of judgement by Syria late Hafez Assad in 1976: Lebanese are still paying its dear price, 50 years later.

The Lebanese “progressive” movement of political parties, allied with Palestine Liberation Organization (Yaser Arafat, who was a Muslim Brotherhood)), were massed in the town of Dhour Shouweir and ready to enter Bikfaya and descend on Jounieh (supposedly a stronghold of the Christian militias forces).

The US ambassador hurried to Damascus to convince Hafez to cross the borders and prevent the defeat of the Christian militias.

The US and Israel gave Syria the green light and dangled all kinds of opportunities for Assad to move quickly, a one-life opportunity to take control of a big chunk of Lebanon, sort of a mandated power.

The “Leftist” alliance needed barely 3 weeks to end their plan of attack.

Hafez didn’t give them that reprieve and ordered them to stop the attack.

Surely they resisted the onslaught of the Syrian army and delayed for 6 months the Syrian army to deploy.

But the “Christian” militias were saved and given fresh opportunities to resume their traditional treacherous activities before and after Lebanon independence of begging the colonial powers and Israel to continue their international support and weapon transfer.

The “Christian” leaders have always been the confirmed stooges to the colonial powers, on the faked and untenable assumption that their survival is linked to the firm colonial support.

Though previous experience and successive later ones proved to be wrong and the colonial powers didn’t give any weight for the minority Christian forces, militarily and politically

So, what convinced Hafez, this level headed and patient leader, to cross in the wrong timing?

It was easy to surmise that in critical periods, the clan and minority spirit overcome the general concept of unity of the nation.

A minority “Muslim” Alawi sect in power in Syria, coming to the rescue of a minority Maronite “christian” sect that was in power a year ago, before the start of Lebanon civil war. (Then the Maronite President had vast power. After the Taef agreement in 1990, most of those powers reverted to the Sunni Prime Minister)

Kind of minorities in power rescuing one another in critical junctions.

Obviously, Hafez was Not about to state this inclination and he proclaimed that the decision was taken months ahead of US demand to cross the border.

Israel agreed for the Syrian army to cross Lebanon borders with easy conditions: that the army stay clear from Lebanon southern borders with Israel (a “buffer zone” of about 40 km deep) and Not to transfer or equip its mandated troops with quality weapons that might constitute threat to Israel security.

Consequently, the Lebanese christian militias had an easy propaganda to resume their cooperation with Israel: Hafez was guaranteed a life-long power over Syria and is Not independent in his foreign decisions and affairs.

This historical decision to cross the border, 3 weeks before taming the christian militias, exacerbated the situation and let the civil war continue till 1992.

From 1976 til 1984, the Christian forces harassed militarily the Syrian troops in location they had a majority population: They forgot that it was the Syrian troops that saved them from oblivion.

The Lebanese civilians paid the heaviest of prices: mass transfer to newly created sectarian cantons.

Syrian controlled Lebanon til 2005 before withdrawing its troops.

From 1991 and on, military activities by Christian forces against the Syrian stopped since the world community agreed on a peaceful transition, but street demonstrations flurried up now and then.

There were No Victors in this protracted civil war and the militia “leaders” of all religious sects returned to power and they were ruling Lebanon for 3 decades.

(This current mass upheaval of the newer generations is a scream against this mafia/militia “leaders” monopoly over every consumer goods, energy, financial transactions, services, medicine…)

Since 2001, Lebanon has been declining economically, financially, politically and administratively: transformed into an anomie system where every deputy owns a basic business in Lebanon and swap shares without paying a dime in the transactions.

No public institutions function normally: No public electricity, potable water, polluted rivers and sea, and one third of the families relying on public services paychecks.

Israel also committed a strategic historical mistake by crossing Lebanon borders in 1982, entered Beirut, and forced the PLO to vacate Lebanon.

Since then, Israel had no valid lame excuses of trespassing the borders to attack Palestinian incursions within its borders.

Israel grabbed the excuse of the existence of Palestinian armed forces on its border to bomb the southern towns in order to chase these Lebanese out of their lands and take them over. Which she did for 25 years until it withdrew its troops in 2000 without any pre-conditions

Lebanon national movement to resist and kick out Israel occupation was constituted and Hezbollah was organized after Islamic Iran came to power in 1979.

Israel could no longer rely on the Palestinians refugees to destabilize Lebanon society.

Israel is currently on the defensive and unable to pre-empt any war on Lebanon, since its defeat in the 2006 war.

Wrong timing is accelerated by faulty and deformed idea-fix passions.