Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘Antifragility

Visible risks are not real risks… What you don’t know is categorized as random events
Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote: THE LEBANESE WAR THAT DOESN’T HAPPEN.
Lebanon is much safer than anywhere else.
The casualty rate from car bombs in Lebanon over 2013 was 2.5 per 100,000 people.
It remains < a tenth of crime in NY in the 90s, <20th of crime in Brazil, etc.
Outside bombs the homicide rate is very low.  Why? Simply, a bomb is immediately noticed by the press, series of isolated crimes don’t make the newspaper.
Antony Veich wrote: “in the case of Belfast the press usually stayed at The Europa, so the IRA took the bombs to the hotel… 28 times.”
Sadly, people in 2014 make more irrational decisions than they did in 1900. Visible risks are not really risks.
The other good news is that everyone is worried about “future risks“.
The risks in Lebanon are not hidden. They are open for everyone to see, and nobody is wondering why in spite of all these incidents the war DID NOT happen?
Every bomb that does not cause generalized warfare makes the system more robust to war (see Antifragility).
In 1975 the Palestinians had nothing to lose from civil war. Same with Syria.
Today all parties in Lebanon have skin in the game, and are deep into real estate in Beirut.

Reversing Type 2 Diabetes: From FIFO to LIFO paths

 

 

John Peter  shared
 

Mechanisms that are First-In/First-Out (FIFO) (path independent) do not like variability and volatility (i.e., Jensen’s Inequality/Antifragility) as much as ones that are Last-In/First-Out (LIFO) (hence path dependent).
Take diabetes.

We are discovering that diabetes is not (as we thought) the result of being overweight, rather the effect of absence of variation, not losing weight, not having periods of starvation (that among other things, clean up the fat deposit in the pancreas that is LIFO).

So someone overweight who loses weight can be much better-off than the same person a bit thinner at stable weight.

There is plenty of research in diabetes hinting at this from many sides but nobody tried to put a systematic mathematical apparatus on it.

Though the math is not trivial (because of path dependence), I was able to play with it with Monte Carlo analyses.

Note that the Russians have known that for over a century.

Reversing Type 2 Diabetes

Our work has shown that type 2 diabetes is not inevitably progressive and life-long.

We have demonstrated that in people who have had type 2 diabetes for 4 years or less, major weight loss returns insulin secretion to normal.

It has been possible to work out the basic mechanisms which lead to type 2 diabetes.

Too much fat within liver and pancreas prevents normal insulin action and prevents normal insulin secretion. Both defects are reversible by substantial weight loss.

A crucial point is that individuals have different levels of tolerance of fat within liver and pancreas.

Only when a person has more fat than they can cope with does type 2 diabetes develop.

In other words, once a person crosses their personal fat threshold, type 2 diabetes develops. Once they successfully lose weight and go below their personal fat threshold, diabetes will disappear.

Some people can tolerate a BMI of 40 or more without getting diabetes.

Others cannot tolerate a BMI of 22 without diabetes appearing, as their bodies are set to function normally at a BMI of, say 19.

This is especially so in people of South Asian ethnicity.

Information for people with diabetes

Information for your doctor

It is important that people with diabetes discuss their management with their own doctor. It will take years for this new knowledge to become incorporated into textbooks and guidelines, so your doctor may be wary of information from the internet.

Newcastle University researchers have written some notes for you to take to your doctor. Download our information sheet for doctors on the practical management of type 2 diabetes in respect of reversal (PDF: 220KB).


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

September 2021
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