Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘Arab Autumn Revolt

Israel is announcing to World Community: “I am ready for another preemptive war. Back me up!”

Do you believe the State of Israel had ever a positive, peaceful, and happy announcement to communicate to the outside world?  You have the impression that the successive governments in Israel are plagued with very depressive conditions:  The only way out for Israel’s governments to vent their anger and insecure internal situations is to have some fun waging another preemptive war; it does not matter who is the enemy.

You have this constant impression that Israel oligarchy ruling the military infrastructure, production of military hardware, and export of military materials is the supreme institution in the State of Israel.  When this military oligarchy (constituted of former defense ministers and Chief-of Staffs, and financial institution leaders), wants to test its products and encourage export of machines of death,  “civil” governments are just facade, and its sole role is disseminating lame excuses and preparing the world community to expect another preemptive war!

Have you noticed that only Israel and the superpowers with veto “rights” in the UN security council wage preemptive wars and never pay restitution for illegal aggressions and occupations ?  Is it why they keep waging “preemptive wars”?

In the last two months, Israel has been declaring its readiness to go to war.  Who is this Ban Kee Moon? Is he the secretary general of the UN who was re-appointed for another term to “lead” the world community and establish peace, preserving human rights, investigating the progress of the UN indicators for human development?

Shouldn’t Ban Kee Moon respond to Israel threats for destabilizing world community?   Shouldn’t Ban Kee Moon take the podium and warn Israel that “enough is enough!?”  That the Palestinians in Gaza are living in an open vast concentration camp, and this condition is not within the human rights obligation of a State recognized by the UN? Shouldn’t Ban Kee Moon work relentlessly to drum up a support campaign for the establishment of a Palestinian State?

Israel massacred over 100 peaceful Palestinians, using snipers, against Palestinian demonstrators on the borders for their rights of return, guaranteed by the UN in 1948.  What did this Ban Kee Moon said? “We urge all concerned parties to keep calm and refrain of violence”  Israel repeated its feat and killed 300 peaceful Palestinian demonstrators the next week .

What did this Ban Kee Moon said? “We urge all concerned parties to keep calm and refrain of violence!”  When Israel killed 9 peaceful civilians on “Freedom 1” boats heading to Gaza, what do you think this Ban Kee Moon said? “We are waiting for Israel “independent report” on the killing… and we urge all concerned parties to keep calm and refrain of violence”

Israel is serious about launching its nth preemptive war, early this September for several reasons:

First, Israel knows that war (the only activity that Israel did better than anything else, before the 2006 war) is the best diplomatic means to delaying the establishment of a Palestinian State:  A war before the UN vote will delay the issue and Israel will gain more time for proving that a Palestinian State is a geo-political non-feasibility…

Second, Israel will try again, using a different military strategy to weakening the military might of Hezbollah.  Hezbollah is the most scary enemy to Israel because no system can destroy short and medium-range missiles, landing by the hundreds on cities, towns, airfields, and military infrastructure and production complexes…

Third, Israel will coax Syria to respond and take the initiative to demolishing the regime security forces centers, and headquarter of Bashar al Assad.  Consequently, facilitating regime change and weakening the strategic links of Iran in that region.

Fourth, Israel is about to get the green light for that preemptive war from the US and Turkey.  This triumvirate has reached an agreement that the Moslem Brotherhood political parties sharing power in Egypt and Syria is good to business and stability.

Iran wishes that Israel will refrain from coaxing the Syrian regime into a war, simply because any war with Syria will change the name of the game with its strategic ally.  Iran wants to agree with the US, China, and Russia that the most plausible alternative in the short-term is a resumption of benign insurgencies, and the Syrian regime not going overboard with its repressions.

I believe Israel beg to foolishly differ with Iran’s wishes:  Israel military infrastructure and production is the strongest catalyst for engaging in preemptive wars:  It is good for business and for the military budget in periods of internal crisis.

Lebanon will endure harsh periods whether Bashar regime succeed or fail.  Especially, if a civil war sweeps Syria:  Lebanon social structure is so drastically divisive.  Would the new Lebanese government take seriously the imminent next preemptive war and vigorously coordinate the defensive strategy among the resistance, the army, and the people?

Frankly, what may delay the preemptive war in early September is a strong stand by Egypt (State and people) and a change of regime in Syria. No matter what Israel proclaim about its main enemy, it is Egypt that scares most Israel!  I believe, this time around, a preemptive war launched by Israel will be catastrophic to this Zionist State, economically, politically, and militarily.

Definite political and social changes will get roots in the Middle-East.  “An Arab Autumn Revolt” will spread its fire and seeds for freedom and democratic systems.  It is plausible that Israel might advance its D-Day if Syria tanks enter Hama:  Thus, fomenting a civil war that was not forthcoming.

What’s going in Hama (Syria)? Western States selective memories: Stability is NOT synonymous with continuity of political systems!

What’s going in the fourth largest city Hama (700,000 citizens) in Syria?  News were too overestimating the number of demonstrators at 500,000 marchers! Nevertheless, it is an indication that Hama is against the Assad regime, stock and lock.  Hama is probably the most strategic city in Syria for internal logistics, located smack in the center of Syria.

The French daily Liberation reported from a nurse working in the hospital in Hama: “On July 3rd, the hospital received 35 civilians killed by live ammunitions.  The people in Hama are in a state of rage.  They used to demonstrate peacefully after closing shops and on Friday.  Right now, they refuse to leave their city and let the brutal Syrian security forces enter easily.  The citizens are burning tires and setting up barricades.”

Robert Fisk wrote in the British The Independence: “The cycle in Syria is closing on.  On February 1982, the regime of Hafez Assad opened fire with tanks on the civilians in Hama for many days and killed over 10,000 at least.  This time around, the revolt is not concentrated on Islamists.  The people have rekindled the indignities (zul) they suffered three decades ago.”  A hundred families have fled Hama, as long as fleeing is not the trend, as in Jisr al Shaghour.

Last month, the Syrian regime decided not to encircle or enter Hama:  Hama streets were left to the peaceful insurgents.  A couple of days ago, Bashar al Assad decided to send over 100 tanks to surround Hama and its suburbs, and resumed searching every house… Lately, the US ambassador and the French ambassador decided to visit Hama, on the eve of Friday prayers.  Are they trying to send the strong message:  Syria regime, “No pasaran into Hama”!

Sarkis Naoum, the editorialist in the Lebanese daily al Nahar, wrote: “There is no real survival for the ethnic minorities in the Middle-East, as there is no stability for the brutal majority rules”. (This is a most important topic to be discussed at length)

It is time to comprehend that stability is Not synonymous with continuity, and vice versa.  For example, Lebanon political structure has been instituted to be a Non-State for over 70 years, and still going “strong”, but Lebanon barely witnessed any kind of stability for any length of time.  Military coups and civil wars are score, if we count the unofficially recognized coup and civil wars.

The dictators and absolute monarchs and their oligarchies were happy noticing the heads of the Western leaders nodding approval that the continuity of their regimes is synonymous to stability of the western interests.  The western leaders knew better, but it is so convenient to dealing with dictators “who deliver” on biased non-discussed contracts, by any representative of the people and at the expense of the wealth of a developing country.

Israel is serious about launching its nth preemptive war, early this September for several reasons:

First, Israel knows that war (the only activity that Israel did better than anything else before the 2006 war) is the best diplomatic means to delaying the establishment of a Palestinian State:  A war before the UN vote will delay the issue and Israel will gain more time for proving that a Palestinian State is a geo-political non-feasibility…

Second, Israel will try again, using a different military strategy to weakening the military might of Hezbollah.  Hezbollah is the most scary enemy to Israel because no system can destroy short and medium-range missiles, landing by the hundreds on cities, towns, airfields, and military infrastructure and production complexes…

Third, Israel will coax Syria to respond and take the initiative to demolishing the regime security forces centers and headquarter of Bashar al Assad.  Consequently, facilitating regime change and weakening the strategic links of Iran in that region.

Fourth, Israel is about to get the green light for that preemptive war from the US and Turkey.  This triumvirate has reached an agreement that the Moslem Brotherhood parties sharing power in Egypt and Syria is good to business and stability.

Iran wishes that Israel will refrain from coaxing the Syrian regime into a war, simply because any war with Syria will change the name of the game with its strategic ally.  Iran wants to agree with the US, China, and Russia that the most plausible alternative in the short-term is a resumption of benign insurgencies, and the Syrian regime not going overboard with its repressions.  I believe Israel beg to foolishly differ:  Israel military infrastructure and production is the strongest catalyst for engaging in preemptive wars:  It is good for business and for the military budget in periods of internal crisis.

Lebanon will endure harsh periods whether Bashar regime succeed or fail.  Especially, if a civil war sweeps Syria:  Lebanon social structure is so drastically divisive.  Would the new Lebanese government take seriously the imminent next preemptive war and vigorously coordinate the defensive strategy among the resistance, the army, and the people?

Frankly, what may delay the preemptive war in early September is a strong stand by Egypt (State and people) and a change of regime in Syria.  I believe, this time around, a preemptive war launched by Israel will be catastrophic to this Zionist State, economically, politically, and militarily.  Definite political and social changes will get roots in the Middle-East.  “An Arab Autumn Revolt” will spread its fire and seeds for freedom and democratic systems.

Note: It is plausible that Israel might advance its D-Day as Syria tanks enter Hama:  Thus, fomenting a civil war that was not forthcoming.

Open Letter to Hassan Nasr Allah: General Secretary of Hezbollah

In part 1, I stated

“I have the highest respect for this organization, Hezbollah, that saved Lebanon twice from becoming a total non-entity within the last decade.  Since Hezbollah is the most powerful movement in Lebanon in number, organization, military training, and in readiness, it has the potential to either drive Lebanon to a secular democratic system or strengthen the multi-theocratic structure that the Lebanese have been subjugated to since independence in 1943.

This important social and political force can either spread havoc or strengthen the independence of Lebanon, depending on open dialogue and communication among all Lebanese political parties. With Hezbollah, I feel that Lebanon is no longer just a Non-State that was recognized by the UN in 1946, but has acquired the status of a Nation; a tiny Nation, but with the potential of agreeing that we are citizens under civic law and against all contingencies.

Either we keep apprehensive of a planned “Wilayat Fakih” strategy, a stronger and more centralized theocratic system than what we have in Lebanon, or Hezbollah can be the catalyst for the Lebanese society to build a State that gives a meaning to the modern citizen, regardless of religious affiliation, genders, or “tribal and feudal” chattel mentality.

Either Lebanon eases its way to a unified modern State, with secular civil laws and equitable election laws, or we will end up with two drastic different groups:  The theocratic political parties, representing the archaic current political structure, or the secular and democratic political parties representing the aspiration of the new generations.

There are roadblocks to the institution of a modern Lebanese political system. These roadblocks can be surmounted by open dialogue if “theocratic fundamentals” from all religious sects are not set are immune to discussion, and out of the realm of rational dialogue.”

In the previous part of the open letter I discussed three roadblocks (see link in note 1).  Briefly the 3 first roadblocks are:

First roadblock.  The Lebanese aspire to freedom of expressions, opinions, and gathering.  That the embassador to Iran feels he is entitled to meddle in our internal affairs and pressure the authorities to censure a movie produced in Iran is not acceptable…

Second roadblock.  Hezbollah needs to lay off its “theocratic” myths.

The first religious myth is the “dress codes” to both male and female…

The second religious myth to get rid off is combining political and religious responsibilities…

Third religious myth. Starting speeches with a long litany of the “honored” descendants of the Prophet Muhammad… is not appropriate

Fourth religious myth.  My fourth worry is this trend of re-writing history to please cultural propaganda of a nascent Islamic regional power such as Iran.  Shiaa have lived in northern Palestine, Lebanon, and northern Syria many centuries before the Turkish Safavid Empire ruled Iran in the 17th century and decided to adopt the Shiaa sect as the Kingdom religion…

Third roadblock.  Hezbollah has to desist challenging the international community:  It is counter productive to declaring that no power on earth can execute the UN resolutions not satisfactory to Hezbollah, not for 300 years.  These declarations are redundant, since they have been stated several times and the Lebanese knows what can be executed on the ground.  What Hezbollah can do is re-establishing the independence and credibility of Lebanon’s judicial system and let the our legal institutions handle the legal process in Lebanon…

This part is expanding on other serious roadblocks to a unified Lebanon on the highway of modern Statehood.

Fourth roadblock.  Hezbollah has to put into execution a plan for the coordination among the the resistance, the army, and the people for an effective national defensive strategy against Israel repeated preemptive war of aggression on Lebanon territory: Israel that has invaded Lebanon 6 times since 1948.

The first step toward an effective coordination in defensive strategy is for Hezbollah to tone down its potential military might, in speeches and in actions within Lebanon.  The shock strategy should be directed to the civilians in Israel.

Israel will attempt another “preemptive war” on Lebanon on the ground that Hezbollah is a dangerous enemy to the existence of the State of Israel.  As long as the military industrial and communication complex is developed in Israel, Israel will always find a catalyst (an excuse) to waging preemptive wars.  It is not the modern and sophisticated weapons that encourage the Zionist State to unproductive and foolish war mentality, but its developed and complex military infrastructure in producing, maintaining, and upgrading whatever weapons it has for testing and exporting.

Consequently, the Lebanese army task is to returning fire with fire, and it does not need expensive weapons for that job.

Hezbollah should focus on destroying Israel military infrastructure and thus, preventing further Israeli military campaigns.  As Israel military industrial complex is weakened, the right-wing Jewish zealots (mostly concentrated in occupied colonies) will recover their rational mind for serious negotiation, away from stupid and mythical “theocratic fundamentals”.

Is Hezbollah serious in the coordination efforts among the army and the entire Lebanese people and social structure?

Is every valley and mountain top guarded by the army? The new “opposition government” should be ready to go the extra step toward effective coordination of the efforts.

It is most plausible that Israel is readying for another preemptive war early this September, or it might advance its D-Day as Syria tanks enter Hama:  Thus, fomenting a civil war that was not forthcoming. (Read note #1)

Fifth roadblock:  The personification mania of posting photos of the main “leader” on every street, and for this leader to be the designated person to delivering important messages. What Hezbollah should project is this willingness to negotiate and to seek peace and stability and is not following orders from foreign States to doing the bidding…

For example, suppose in the next preemptive war of the Zionist State, Hezbollah project the impression that it didn’t perform according to the Lebanese and “Arab” masses as during the 2006 war?

Wouldn’t the general morale in the Arab and Islamic world be affected negatively?

And wouldn’t the current democratic revolts lose a lot of its wind for quicker changes?

The people will jump to the conclusion that Hezbollah was unable to surmount the weaknesses of the previous long standing traditional Arabic regimes, that it sank into the same temptations, that it emulated the personification of a national resistance into one individual, like Yasser Arafat, Gamal Abdel Nasser, Hafez Assad, Saddam Hussein, Muammar Kadhafi…

There is no need to displaying monster big  pictures of Khomeiny, Khamenie… Unless Hezbollah is witnessing internal weaknesses and is trying hard to rally all the Shiaa under a theocratic ideology, an ideology that we experienced it problems and alienated most Lebanese…

Sixth roadblock.  Physical communication among the various districts in Lebanon has to be instituted.  So far, many Lebanese have visited the south, with heavy concentration of Shiaas.  The reverse trend should be established.  The Shiaa in South Lebanon and in Dahieh need to physically visit other unfamiliar districts and physically communicate with the other Lebanese.

The scout structure can be an ideal organization for various social strata to get to know one another and to hiking all-over Lebanon and getting exposed to diversity.. .And the government should focus on allocating public meeting places in every town, equipped with audio-visual facilities:  The rationale is that, when the public gathering places are available, the citizens will use them and community activities will mushroom and flourish…

Lebanon is a very tiny, highly volatile, unstable society, and NOT immune to radical revolts. Let us declare Moratorium on:

 First, a Moratorium on spreading religious myths

Second, a Moratorium on absolute monarchs and dictators who have been spreading the poison that Arabs and Islamic people are not fit for democratic systems and rational thinking.  The “Arab Spring” uprising are one step in that direction.

Note 1:  Israel is serious about launching its 6th preemptive war on Lebanon, early this September for several reasons:

First, Israel knows that war (the only activity that Israel did better than anything else before the 2006 war) is the best diplomatic means to delaying the establishment of a Palestinian State:  A war before the UN vote will delay the issue and Israel will gain more time for proving that a Palestinian State is a geo-political non-feasibility…

Second, Israel will try again, using a different military strategy to weakening the military might of Hezbollah.  Hezbollah is the most scary enemy to Israel because no system can destroy short and medium-range missiles, landing by the hundreds on cities, towns, airfields, and military infrastructure and production complexes…

Third, Israel will coax Syria to respond and take the initiative to demolishing the regime security forces centers and headquarter of Bashar al Assad.  Consequently, facilitating regime change and weakening the strategic links of Iran in that region.

Fourth, Israel is about to get the green light for that preemptive war from the US and Turkey.  This triumvirate has reached an agreement that the Moslem Brotherhood parties sharing power in Egypt and Syria is good to business and stability.

Iran wishes that Israel will refrain from coaxing the Syrian regime into a war, simply because any war with Syria will change the name of the game with its strategic ally.

Iran wants to agree with the US, China, and Russia that the most plausible alternative in the short-term is a resumption of benign insurgencies, and the Syrian regime not going overboard with its repressions.  I believe Israel beg to foolishly differ:  Israel military infrastructure and production is the strongest catalyst for engaging in preemptive wars:  It is good for business and for the military budget in periods of internal crisis.

Lebanon will endure harsh periods whether Bashar regime succeed or fail.  Especially, if a civil war sweeps Syria:  Lebanon social structure is so drastically divisive.  Would the new Lebanese government take seriously the imminent next preemptive war and vigorously coordinate the defensive strategy among the resistance, the army, and the people?

Frankly, what may delay the preemptive war in early September is a strong stand by Egypt (State and people) and a change of regime in Syria.  I believe, this time around, a preemptive war launched by Israel will be catastrophic to this Zionist State, economically, politically, and militarily.

Definite political and social changes will get roots in the Middle-East.  “An Arab Autumn Revolt” will spread its fire and seeds for freedom and democratic systems.

Note 2: The link to the first part of the open letter https://adonis49.wordpress.com/2011/07/04/to-hassan-nasr-allah-sg-of-hezbollah-an-open-letter/


adonis49

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