Posts Tagged ‘“Arab Spring” revolts’
Shantytown gone: People exist in Movie pictures. Where is this Mafrouza?
Posted by: adonis49 on: July 14, 2011
Shantytown gone: And Movie pictures stay.
Where is this Mafrouza shantytown in Egypt?
Shantytown Mafrouza, in Alexandria (Egypt), by the Greco-Roman necropolis, is now long gone.
Luckily, between 1999 and 2003, Emmanuelle Demoris spent two years filming the shantytown and the daily living of these poor families. The movie director Jean Gruault decided to produce the long 5 movies, two hours and a half long each!
Initially, the project of Emmanuelle Demoris was to capture the relationship between the living and the dead, and stumbled of the shantytown Mafrouza: How practical and handy for the subject.
Like the current reality TV series, the inhabitants in Mafrouza got used to the filming every day. “She is filming you girl. Is that why you are turning your back?” would say a woman.
The five long movies showed the inundations, wedding ceremonies, separations, baking of daily bread under the rain, amorous dates, daily routine of a shop, tentative of taking over a mosque by Moslem fundamentalists, resistance, births,…
Non-entity people, brothers and sisters, who learned to conquer their fears facing the monsters of video equipment that were taking pictures of the real living conditions…
Typical Mafrouza people: Current events of “Arab Spring” revolts have uncovered these typical Mafrouza people, many who were filmed and no longer exist, vanished from the reality of the living, “gone with the wind”, still existing in movies they have never taken seriously, another dimension to their daily living…
Note 1: Mafrouza in the Arabic language means a Real Estate that is subdivided. The inhabitants of Mafrouza must have known that their shantytown is going to be demolished by the oligarchy in order to build luxury hotels with view to the sea.
Note 2: This article was inspired by a piece published in the French weekly Le Nouvel Obsevateur and written by critic Pascal Merigau
Is Lebanon political system a typical application of Black Swan theory?
Posted by: adonis49 on: June 24, 2011
Is Lebanon political system a typical application of Black Swan theory? Is it immune to radical non-violent revolts?
Has anyone seen a swan (baja3) physically? In the flesh, or even flying or walking? If you are asked “what is the color of a swan?” I bet your answer is “White, obviously”. Actually, a black swan was identified a few years ago. Is it possible to eventually identify a multicolored swan?
You might say that finding a black swan, or even a tribe of black swans, or a mixture of black and white swans stand to reason, but is it feasible to have a green, blue… swan? You might respond that genetic engineering can produce whatever colored swan you desire as a pet…
Why do you think all of us believed that a swan must be white, and nothing but white? Most of us have not seen a swan, except in pictires, movies or documentaries; we might not even be able to identify a swan from a duck if the bird is not named…
If even nature, which changes slowly and its trends can be mostly predicted, has the potential of surprising us with rare events, a few of them catastrophic. We got in the habit of expecting frequent disasters from man-designed and man-made systems, within a few years of their applications and usage by people…
The variability in living creatures and the behaviors of users are a thousand folds more numerous than variability in nature. Wouldn’t you be appalled in total disbelief to hear any designer of systems claiming that the product is definitely designed and manufactured to be entirely controlled and managed according to users’ satisfaction, safety, and health?
The teams of designers of many professions such as scientists, engineers, psychologist, legal professionals… are aware of two things:
First, there will be frequent minor malfunctions to the system in terms of financial loss, safety and health causalities, but these malfunctions can be controlled and fixed.
Second, any system contains rare catastrophic malfunctions that will eventually occur (doud al khal minho wa fih) and predicting these rare events is very challenging and out of control and management. When you hear of economic-safety analysis trade-off of a system, bear in mind that the study concerns the number of casualties and the financial cost that owners (more frequently the State or the tax payers) will have to set aside for these calamitous eventualities.
The funny part is that:
First, no money is ever set aside by the private shareholders for these catastrophes and the States or tax-payers will eventually cover up the expenses.
Second, transparency and full disclosure to the general public is never disseminated widely, if ever published.
Third, the public and communities in most countries have no say in the design and decision-making processes of vast man-made systems.
Fourth, no man-made system has instituted an independent specialized and dedicated team responsible of gathering data and analysing statistics of the various malfunctions. Most malfunctions are barely reported and serious hazardous events are dusted-off under the carpet: No read, never happened!
Do you know that the UN agency for health is forbidden to collect and report statistics on nuclear disaster consequences? That the atomic UN agency is not to share statistics with other UN agencies concerned with health and safety of world population?
Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a mathematician by formation wrote “The Black Swan: The power of the unpredictable” and “Savage hazard”. Taleb was initially trying to explain the financial crisis since he is in the financial business. The theory is fine and explains many fluctuations in man-made designs, for example the international financial system.
The problem emerges when Taleb ventures to extend his theory to the current “Arab” revolts and Arab political systems. The is no doubt that political structures are essentially man-made designs and that the current acceptable varieties as within the realm of “How a democratic political system satisfies the criteria of the Western system democratic types.”
Taleb contends that since governments in Lebanon take turn, for example representing “opposition alliances”, as in Italy, the inherent and natural fluctuations in the system instability are resolved naturally.
Basically and literally, Taleb claimed that Lebanon political structure is immune to drastic revolts , on the ground that dictator regimes fall badly because the system try hard to control minor legitimate discontents, and consequently, the system is fragile when any major revolt strikes unexpectedly.
Either Taleb (Lebanese of origine) is using selective memory, or he is faking not to be that familiar with the history of Lebanon’s political structure.
I suspect that Taleb confused catalysts with causes in the case of Lebanon, a confusion he frequently warned against, in analyzing the cases of the “Arab Spring” revolts and the financial crisis.
First, since independence in 1943, Lebanon officially recognized two failed internal coup d’etats, one in 1949 and another in 1961. Lately, Lebanon witnessed a minor failed coup d’etat at the ministry of communication, because a private interest wanted to conserve its mobile communication business.
Second, Lebanon witnessed two officially recognized civil wars, one in 1958 and another one in 1975 that lasted 17 years.
Since the end of the civil war in 1991, Lebanon experienced a major military coup d’etat in 2008 that started in the Palestinian camp of Nahr el Bared around Tripoli: The army needed 11 months to overcome the uprising of the Islamist salafists Jund al Sham, and hundreds of fallen martyrs and handicapped soldiers.
Beirut experienced a quick military coup in 2007 by Hezbollah, as the government attempted to control land communication lines.
The war of 2006 against Israel was actually a military coup perpetrated by the Lebanese government to control Hezbollah’s military might.
Third, Italy has true political parties with programs and policies. The election laws in Italy are among the fairest and most equitable in the western States. Frequent changes in governments didn’t prevent Italy to continue being among the leading economic powers in the world.
Italy is very generous in investing in the poorer nations and its grants are relied upon in most States around the Mediterranean Sea basin. Italy has many contingents in the various UN peace-keeping forces…
Where as, for example, Lebanon is practically a Non-State country or a pseudo-State since its independence. The 18 religious sects represent the main de-facto powers and also by law to exercising political influence. Civil status of every “citizen” is run and administered by the officially recognized religious sects that own more than 50% of the land. Every religious sect is backed by over three confessional “political parties”.
The two historically secular political parties, the Communist and the Syrian National Social parties, were denied participation in the Parliament via biased and tailored-made election laws and procedures.
The Syrian National Social party was recently permitted to enter the parliament, carried on the shoulders of other main confessional parties. The multi-theocratic system, backed by the financial institutions that lend Lebanon governments to cover budget deficit, have vested interests in prohibiting the constitution of any viable and sustainable modern State governing system.
Fourth, Lebanon lacks sustainable public institutions and any long-term programs and policies. The only benefit the citizen enjoys is a mere passport. There exist no serious governance for the people to march against and demand reforms.
Was Taleb aware of the actual conditions and situation in Lebanon for him to categorize Lebanon as falling in line within the “stable” political systems and immune to radical revolts as Italy?
The hot season has started in the northern hemisphere, and the Spring Revolt might cool off a bit. In Lebanon, we missed the spring upheavals that swept the “Arab” world, but we planted the seed of a fresh drastic non-violent revolt for the next spring season.
The youth in Lebanon organized five marches in various cities in Lebanon demanding change in the confessional political structure.
Next Spring, the revolt will still be non-violent, but the target and purpose of the revolt will not be a matter of a reform here and another there. The traditional “leaders” have demonstrated that they refuse to establish a functioning State for all “citizens”: Lebanon has been run by Non-State governments, or care-taker governments.
The youth Movement for Change must be ready for the dawn of the next spring season: It must start doing serious due diligence. For example,
1. Specialized teams have to dig-up and dust-off the policies and programs stored in the basements of ministries. The goal of reviewing and revising already studied programs is: “A political system from the people to the people”.
2. The Lebanese have to feel true citizens with equal rights under the law.
3. The Lebanese have to enjoy fair and equitable election laws that allow common people to accede to decision-making positions.
4. Laws have to be revised for citizens, regardless of genders, race, or religious affiliation, to have fair opportunities to all political positions and job opportunities in the public and private institutions and enterprises.
5. The Constitution has to be re-written to separate religion from civil power and responsibility…
Radical changes are possible: There are no other alternatives to patching up a rotten political and social structure; it is not feasible to move on with small incremental reforms under the power of the ferocious religious and financial oligarchies that have been dominating our lives and subjugating us to constant instability and indignities.
We have grown up to be mature and responsible adult “citizens”. Lebanon is Not immune to drastic revolts, and the next revolution will be successful!
Note 1: Nassim Taleb, a mathematician, was a trader and worked for 20 years as consultant to large investment banks in New York and London. He created Empirica LLC for trading. He is engineering professor at the polytechnic institute at the University of New York.
Is Lebanon political system immune to radical non-violent revolts? Black Swan theory NOT applicable? Think again!
Posted by: adonis49 on: June 3, 2011
Is Lebanon political system immune to radical non-violent revolts?
Black Swan theory NOT applicable to Lebanon? Think again!
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (see note), the mathematician who wrote “The Black Swan: The power of the unpredictable” published an article in the French weekly Le Courrier International. Nassim stated that Lebanon’s political structure, as in Italy, is immune to drastic revolts similar to those taking place in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen…
Taleb contends that since governments in Lebanon take turn representing “opposition alliances”, as in Italy, the inherent and natural fluctuations in the system instability are resolved naturally.
Taleb said that dictator regimes fall badly because the system try hard to control minor legitimate discontents, and consequently, the system is fragile when any major revolt strikes unexpectedly.
(As a reminder, Black Swan is a term coined after discovering a black swan a couple of years ago. People firmly believed that all swans were white: A few might have observed a black swan, but refused to identify it as a swan. Maybe black swans are common sight in particular regions and people had no idea that black swans are considered rarity all over the world and might be purchased for their weight in gold to be raised in zoos!)
Either Taleb is using selective memory, or he is not that familiar with Lebanon’s political structure history after staying abroad for so long. I suspect that Taleb confused catalysts with causes in the case of Lebanon, a confusion he frequently warned against in analyzing the cases of the “Arab Spring” revolts and the financial crisis.
First, since independence in 1943, Lebanon experienced two failed internal coup d’etats, one in 1949 and another in 1961, and several uprising such as in 1950, 1958, and 1974… Last week, the Moustakbal party that led an alliance which governed Lebanon since 1991, has tried a failed coup d’etat to conserve its mobile communication interests: The general director of the internal forces, General Reefy, led a force of 400 armed men and occupied the second flat in the communication ministry. The director of the communication ministry, Youssof, a stauch member of the Moustakbal of Saad Hariri PM party, participated in that stupid undertaking.
Second, Lebanon witnessed two civil wars, one in 1958 and another one in 1975 that lasted 17 years. Since the end of the civil war in 1991, Lebanon experienced a major military coup d’etat in 2008 that started in the Palestinian camp of Nahr el Bared around Tripoli: The army needed 11 months to overcome the uprising of the Islamist salafists Jund al Sham.
Beirut experienced a quick military coup in 2007 by Hezbollah, as the government attempted to control land communication lines. The war of 2006 against Israel was actually a military coup perpetrated by the Lebanese government to control Hezbollah’s military might.
Third, Italy has true political parties with programs and policies. The election laws in Italy are among the fairest and most equitable in the western States. Frequent changes in governments didn’t prevent Italy to continue being among the leading economic powers in the world. Italy is very generous in investing in the poorer nations and its grants are relied upon in most States around the Mediterranean Sea basin. Italy has many contingents in the various UN peace-keeping forces…
Whereas Lebanon is practically a Non-State country since its independence, a pseudo State by any criteria. The 18 religious sects represent the main powers by law, and they exercise de-facto political influence. Civil status of every “citizen” is run and administered by the officially recognized religious sects that own more than 50% of the land.
Every religious sect is backed by over three confessional “political parties”. The two historically secular political parties, the communist and the Syrian National Social parties, were denied participation in the Parliament via tailored-made election laws and procedures. The Syrian National Social party was recently permitted to enter the parliament, carried on the shoulders of other main confessional parties.
Fourth, Lebanon lacks sustainable public institutions and any long-term programs and policies. The only benefit the citizen enjoys is a mere passport. The are no serious governance for the people to march against and demand reforms. Was Taleb aware of the actual conditions and situation in Lebanon for him to catagorize Lebanon as falling in line within the “stable” political systems and immune to radical revolts as Italy?
The hot season has started in the northern hemisphere, and the Spring Revolt might cool off a bit. In Lebanon, we missed the spring upheavals that swept the “Arab” world, but we planted the seed of a fresh drastic non-violent revolt for the next spring season.
The youth in Lebanon organized 5 marches in various cities in Lebanon demanding change in the confessional political structure. Next Spring, the revolt will still be non-violent, but the target and purpose of the revolt will not be a matter of a reform here and another there.
The traditonal “leaders” have demonstrated that they refuse to establish a functioning State for all “citizens”: Lebanon has been run by Non-State governments, or care-taker governments.
The Movement for Change must be ready for the dawn of the next spring season: It must start doing serious due dilligence.
First, specialized teams have to dig-up and dust-off the policies and programs stored in the basements of ministries. The goal of reviewing and revising already studied programs is: “A political system from the people to the people”.
Second, the Lebanese have to feel true citizens with equal rights under the law. The Lebanese have to enjoy fair and equitable election laws that allow common people to acceed to decision-making positions.
Third, Laws have to be revised for citizens, regardless of genders, race, or religious affiliation, to have fair opportunities to all political positions and job opportunities in the public and private institutions and enterprises.
Fourth, The Constitution has to be re-written to separate religion from civil power and responsibility…
Radical changes are possible: There are no other alternatives to patching up a rotten political and social structure; it is not feasible to move on with small incremental reforms under the power of the ferocious religious and financial oligarchies that have been dominating our lives and subjugating us to constant instability and indignities.
We have grown up to be mature and responsible adult “citizens”
Note 1: Nassim Taleb, a mathematician, was a trader and worked for 20 years as consultant to large investment banks in New York and London. He created Empirica LLC for trading. He is engineering professor at the polytechnic institute at the University of New York. Taleb published “Savage hazard” and “The Black Swan: The power of the unpredictable.”
Note 2: The deposed Saad Hariri PM is a Saudi citizen first, and has been located in Saudi Arabia for the past three months, taking care of private business, and is currently established in Paris….
Why popular uprisings start at dawn of Spring? A few consequences
Posted by: adonis49 on: June 1, 2011
Why popular uprisings start at dawn of Spring?
I suggest that writing down wish lists for the next year be shifted to first of March: People feel upbeat and with rejuvenated energy to carry through many of their fresh wishes. I would say that my prefered season is Spring, early months of Spring, simply because people get on the march.
The year 1848 was the Spring of the people throughout Europe: The people demanded constitutional monarchies, everywhere absolute monarchies could not be changed. France got its Republic back.
It was contagious: A single conflagration in a city spread like wild-fire to the entire country. Barricades were the tactics of choice and communicating with the soldiers. For example, the kids sitting by the soldiers would talk to soldiers: “You will not open fire before warning us. Okay?” and the soldiers to reply: “Do not worry, we have no orders yet”.
Spring in 1848 started on February 22 in Paris. The night before the call for gathering, the organizers decided to call-off the demonstration, but it was too late. On Feb. 23, the people demands the resignation of the Prime minister Guizot and shout “Long life reforms”.
The monarch Louis Philippe accepts the resignation of his PM. The guards at the Tuileries open fire on the demonstrators. The people carry the dead bodies on carriages and exhibit them below the balcony of the monarch, shouting: “Vengeance, vengeance, they are slaughtering our kids”. The marchers then attack the Tuileries in many directions and chased out the guards. On Feb. 25, the King abdicates.
Russia monarch, Nicolas I, is preparing a war against the new French Republic proclaiming that the war is in the name of “God’s justice and for the sacred principles of the hereditary order” that the convention of Vienna in 1815 had laid down among all monarchs in Europe.
On March 3rd, the Hungarian lawyer Louis Kossuth demands the creation of a parliamentary regime, and head a delegation toward Vienna, Capital of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. Prince Metternich resigns (designer of the Vienna new political arrangement in 1815) and comte Battyany is named Prime Minister of Hungaria.
On March 17, the people in Milan set up barricades. Lombardi in Italy is in insurrection. Five days of uprising convinced Marechal Radetzky to retire his troops from the region of Milan.
In Berlin on March 17, King Frederic-Guillaume 4 bow down temporarily and accord freedom of the press and convoke the Diet. The people march below the windows of the king; the troops open fire. The king announces conceding to a Constitutional democracy and move his residence to Potsdam, far from the Capital.
The king of Munich abdicates. The insurrection spread to Leipzig, Hanover, Wurttemberg. Poland is agitating. Monarchs and soldiers believed that killing a few demonstrators will quickly establish Law and Order: The victims were paraded as martyrs below kings’ windows.
The year 1848 ended in massive counterattacks by all European monarchies and the year-round revolts are tamed for a while.
The “Arab Spring” revolts are overflowing to southern European States (Spain, Potugal, Greece…)and spreading to other European States. Youth sit-ins in major squares in the various Capitals are demanding that they share in the political decisons concerning their future.
This Century of Islam
Posted by: adonis49 on: March 10, 2009
The Century of Islam, (March 11, 2009)
The 20th century was the communist century, particularly of the Soviet Union and China, as the nemesis for the liberal and capitalist world.
The 21st century was predicted to be the century of Liberal Capitalist America after the fall of the Berlin Wall: “Liberal capitalism” was advancing globalization and the free flow of capitals to national markets by international financial companies. The prediction of the end of “History” and the implementation of US-type of “democracy”quickly ended with the worst financial crisis of all time (2008), and the emergence of many players in world economics and politics.
After the September 9, 2001 Twin Towers attack, supposedly planned by al Qaeda, the Bush Jr. Administration spewed his venom for a decade on Islam, as the major enemy to democracy and a stable world order.
This century is showing the definite characteristics that it is of Islam.
The superpowers have targeted Islam to be the main nemesis for stable world order:
The superpowers need to create a focused enemy for its people.
Before I broach on current events and realities, a little history is in point. Islam was the world civilization for over 9 centuries. Three centuries of Eastern Arab Empire that was first located in Damascus and then in Baghdad. The Arab/Islam Empire shifted its center of gravity in the next two centuries to the west or the Maghreb Empire, and particularly in Spain or Andalusia.
Two centuries of Islamic domination were marshaled by the Ottoman Moslem Empire in Turkey in the 16th and 17th centuries; another two centuries of the Moslem Mogul Empire in India, and one century of the Islamic Safavid Empire in Iran in the 18th century.
These civilizations waned after Portugal and Spain circumnavigated the Oceans to bypass Egypt for direct trade with India and Far East Asia. In fact, the various Crusaders campaigns failed because they could not conquer Egypt, where the major trade routes intersected before reaching Europe, the main target and purpose of the crusaders financial backers. Christian Europe owes it to the Moslem Empires to be saved from the multitudes of invasions originated in Mongolia and Central Asia by the Mogul and Tatar hordes.
After the Indonesian dictator Suharto died, his successor Bahr el Din Habibi invested over one billion dollars to develop a small civilian airplane. The “Financial Times” mocked the new President for investing on airplanes that can be purchased with much higher quality and performance. The West was purposely belittling what they perceived as the new challenges coming from the largest Moslem Nation in matter of knowledge and technology. Habibi meant to build new generations of Moslems that can manufacture instead of being simple consumers. Habibi said “Money comes and goes. Human brains can be purchased but how can we secure loyalty to a nation and to citizens?”
The Ottoman Empire was later weakened by relying too heavily on its mercenaries the “Inkisharia” (soldiers raised from foreign slaves), the Arab Empire was destroyed from the interior by relying on foreign mercenaries.
Pakistan had to build the first Moslem atomic bomb in order to challenge India’s bomb. As Zhu Fikar Ali Bhutto said “we will have to build the atomic bomb even if we end up eating grass”. Actually, Bhutto was overthrown and put to death because he challenged the West for building the bomb.
Iran is facing constant pressure from the West for manufacturing its own arms, munitions, missiles, atomic power generators, and space satellites.
India has more Moslems than Pakistan, Indonesia, and Egypt combined. The middle classes of Indian Moslems and Chinese Moslems are nearly as large as the total USA population.
Indonesia, Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Nigeria are almost continents of their own in size and populations and they are acting and behaving as self-sufficient nations.
The West has to start trading knowledge and technologies without any pre-conditions if it seeks peace, security, stability, and prosperity. War is a losing option for both parties and no one can hope to emerge winner anyway
I have mentioned in several articles that the five nations in the UN with veto power are negotiating to partition Sudan for its huge raw materials, oil reserves, and water resources. This adventure is doomed to fail unless they negotiate a fair deal with the people in Sudan and the most populous Moslem nations in Africa such as Egypt, Nigeria, and Kenya in Africa.
Note 1: The “Arab Spring” revolts against dictators and absolute monarchies have set the tone for democratic systems in the Arabic States. The major underlying factor for this mass indignity is the realization that western governments encouraged dictator and absolute monarchy regimes for an entire century in order to maintaining the “Moslem” people subjugated and unable to grow and develop.
Note 2: Sudan had a referendum for partition, but it does not seem that problems will vanish any time soon in Sudan: The exploitation of oil and mineral resources will resume unabated, and turmoil in north and south Sudan will be enhanced even further.
Adonis Diaries 