Posts Tagged ‘Bi-Weekly report’
Bi-Weekly Report on Lebanon and the Middle East
Posted by: adonis49 on: April 2, 2021
Bi-Weekly Report (#20) on Lebanon and the Middle East (May 3, 2009)
Israel would like to play games with the US Administration in order to delay tough decisions for the establishment of a Palestinian State that everyone has been yearning for.
Israel is trying to focus the attention on Iran but there are no takers.
The US Administration knows that there are No peace treaties with the Palestinians or Syria unless the regional powers are satisfied and consenting; mainly Iran, Egypt, Saudi Kingdom, and Turkey.
Iran is the easiest of the roadblocks among the four major regional powers because Iran would rather focus its investment on the social and economical issues in Lebanon, Palestine, and Syria.
The most difficult power to satisfy would be Egypt because it lost all credibilities for making any difference in the Arab World and in Africa after Gamal Abdel Nasser: Egypt is holding staunchly to its last Palestinian cards, since the huge weight in the Arab World that Gamal Abdel Nasser created for Egypt was dilapidated and used up since Sadate in 1970.
In fact, if a Palestinian State is voted on in the UN, then Egypt would have to turn to its main responsibility that is Sudan. Sudan is a real hot potato and an international focus: Egypt has neglected Sudan for so long that it has no real leverage over there.
Saudi Kingdom comprehends that exporting and proselytizing its Wahhabi sect will come to an abrupt stop if peace and stability reign in the States of the Sunni Muslims: The Wahhabi salafist sect relies mainly on religious extremism in the Arab World which is fueled by considering Israel and Iran as nemesis to the Muslims.
Turkey is enjoying its new found role of mediator and would rather that this exercise last longer to convince France that Turkey is a critical factor for the European Union political effectiveness in the Middle East.
The triangle of Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan is a very hot potato for Turkey to focus its attention on: Turkey would rather not alienate Russia at this junction before it secures a place in the EU.
Israel has been trying since the coming of Barack Obama to immerse the new US Administration in the recurring troubles between India and Pakistan and comploting terrorists attack in both States: the purpose was to divert the US from pressuring Israel to deliver on its promises for facilitating the establishment of a recognized Palestinian State.
With spring season, the Pakistani Army is making good progress inside the rebellious extremist Taliban type districts within Pakistan such as the Valley of Sawat and with the support of US military shipments.
I was having a nap around 4 p.m. this Wednesday when I overheard that the four military officers, Jamil Al Sayyed (former Security Director), Raymond Azar (military intelligence), Mustafa Hamdan (Presidential guard), and Ali Haj (director of the internal forces) will be released this afternoon after the special International Court of Justice for former late Rafic Hariri realized that it had no legal indictments on any one of the Generals.
There will be strong pressures for four judges to resign because they covered up information and detained the officers for 44 months without any kinds of indictments for political reasons; mainly the focus will be on the judges Said Mirza and Sakr Sakr.
Many heads will fall and the government is in hot water, especially Seniora PM, Saad Hariri, Walid Jumblatt, Samir Geagea, and particularly deputy Marwan Hamady for fabricating false testimonies by false witnesses.
After four years of investigation into the assassination of Rafic Hariri the International Court has nothing in its file for indicting anyone.
Nasr Allah, the Secretary General of Hezbollah has suggested that a new venue be focused on; mainly the Israeli connection because they had the interest and the means for this major upheaval in Lebanon. Nasr Allah proclaimed that no more indictments or imprisonment would be facilitated before thorough analysis of the proofs with the UN Court.
Jamil Al Sayyed had explained that their political indictment was a routine behavior of every government since the Independence of Lebanon.
The security responsibility of any government starts with the president of the Republic, then the Prime Minister, then the Head of the Parliament, then the ministers, then the deputies and lastly the security forces.
All the massacres, treasury stealing, financial black boxes, and insecurity of the State are done by the politicians and based on their policies.
Once the politicians find it convenient to reconcile their differences it is the officers of the security and military forces that are targeted as scapegoats.
Next Tuesday the highest court of judges of Lebanon will meet and come up with a credible explanation for shirking its independence as the third authority and hopefully major heads should pay the price for ruining the credibility of our justice system.
What happened in the Middle East and Lebanon in 2009: Bi weekly report
Posted by: adonis49 on: February 1, 2021
Bi-Weekly Report (#24) on the Middle East and Lebanon (May 28, 2009)
The weekly French “Courrier International” failed to do its job on analyzing Syria’s policies.
Instead of investigating and doing leg works it opted to rely on the Washington Post and Now Lebanon, totally biased against anything related to Syria, for spreading its nonsense.
This weekly publishing is repeating the old regurgitated stories of what the successive US Administrations want from Syria with respect to facilitating the job of US military presence in Iraq.
As usual, the catchy “Damascus does Not get it” and “Could we have confidence in President Bashar Assad? ” summarizes the topic. As if the job and responsibilities of President Assad is to cajole and obey the US dicta for nothing in return, such as the Golan Heights that was captured by Israel since 1973.
The Washington Post and supposed “reporter” Karen De Young would like us to believe that the increase of “terrorist activities” in Iraq and in Mossoul last month can be linked to the laxity of Syria’s border patrols.
It seems that Al Qaeda has been active shipping “martyr terrorists” from northern African Arab States and Saudi Kingdom to blow up Iraq Shia sect citizens.
What about the other sects, such as the minority Christian sects?
The report stated that the Iraqi border patrols cannot do effectively their jobs because of lack of carburant. The Iraqi government has a depleted budget because of low oil prices on the international market and thus the border patrols drive along the vast borders with Syria, 15 days out of 30. Thus, Syria is to be blamed for the US insufficient funding for borders control.
The monthly “Le Monde Diplomatique” did its job concerning Albania and Kosovo. The US Administration is pushing to finish quickly the fast highway linking Pristina (the Capital of Kosovo) to the Adriatic Sea at the Albanian seaport of Durres.
Apparently, the NATO (OTAN) needs this strategic highway so that the 5th fleet could discharge military hardware and soldiers.
Close to the highway in Kosovo there is the largest US Camp Bondsteel military base by the town of Urosevac.
Close to the highway in the town of Kukes in Albania the US has finished a functional airport used by military cargo and denied access to civilian use and at the expense of the Albanian tax payers.
The story boils down to a Greek bank Alpha lent the Albanian government 300 millions Euros (guaranteed by the US) to build the super highway. The trick is that 65% of the Albanian budget is reserved for the infrastructure ministry and 75% of the budget of this ministry is allocated to this super highway, which means about 50% of the total budget of the ministry is allocated to this highway, just to satisfy US military logistics.
The bombshell is that the US Bechtel multinational will reap 44% profit on the cost of this super highway.
The newly “independent” States of Kosovo, Montenegro, and Macedonia are quickly becoming the dumping ground for the NATO and the European Union economic, military, and environmental policies.
I watched the highly informative interview of retired General Jamil Al Sayyed with Maggie Farah on the OTV channel. Jameel Al Sayyed was released recently from 4 years of detention with No formal court cases after the International Tribunal judged his imprisonment illegal and ordered him out, along with 3 other security high level officers.
General Al Sayyed returned two day ago from France after resuming his depositions on Millis’ fabricated climate for Al Sayyed unjustified detention. Millis is the former investigator to the assassination of Rafic Hariri) and Johnny Abdou, former retired Lebanon military intelligence chief, participated in that fabricated story.
Al Sayyed will also work out the courts in Germany with respect to Millis. Al Sayyed is a highly interesting character and a well spoken intelligent and honest personality.
Al Sayyed said that it was the Lebanese officials who drew the Syrian counterparts into suspect transactions and corruptions. Although every political leader in Lebanon has dealing with foreign States, Al Sayyed lambasted Saad Hariri and Samir Geagea for their incapacity in using proper “valves” that can shut down foreign interests into destabilizing Lebanon.
The German daily Der Spiegel reported excerpts from internet blogs posted by Syrian dissidents six months ago claiming that a special team of Hezbollah masterminded the assassination of late Lebanon Rafic Hariri PM.
The timing of that report, which the International Tribunal denied any knowledge, was evidence that the real perpetrators were scared shit of the victory of the opposition in Lebanon at the next Parliamentary election on June 7. It meant that the opposition is not about to let the assassination case linger any longer and will pursue its own investigation or force the International Tribunal to move swiftly and close the doors to further political manipulations of that case.
What exacerbated the political climate is that Lebanon has started dismantling systematically Israel’s spy webs and dangerous intelligence pieces are accumulating relative to Israel involvement in many of the string of assassination cases in Lebanon since the murder of Rafic Hariri.in 2005.
The US Vice President Biden visited Lebanon for 6 hours before the publishing of the report and met with the leaders of the government alliances. Lebanon has to expect the worst every time a US official pay us visit to give orders that Lebanon cannot satisfy.
Thanks to Walid Jumblatt, one of the principal allies to the government, he quickly and adamantly lambasted this chimerical and fabricated report and proclaimed that the report was intended to draw Lebanon into another civil war between the Shia and the Sunni Muslim sects.
Saad Hariri (leader of the Future movement) and Seniora PM were forced into suspect silence; proof that they were aware of the plan that backfired on them, a plan that is backed by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Israel, and the USA.
Older Bi-Weekly report on Lebanon: Walid Jumblatt and March 14 alliance
Posted by: adonis49 on: January 28, 2021
Nothing changed: Bi-Weekly report (#28)
Posted on:August 7, 2009
Walid Jumblatt has exited from the March 14 alliance (opposing Hezbollah and those seeking Syria support or March 8 alliance) two days ago: he has 11 deputies in the Lebanese Parliament.
Simple arithmetic shows that the previous majority in the Parliament is now the minority. The designated Saad Hariri PM failed to form a government in over 45 days while he was the leader of the majority.
The President of the Republic should recall all the political blocks to designate another person for the job.
Walid Jumblatt exit is not solely based on political divergences but mainly on his apprehension that the delay in forming the government is encouraging Israel to start another wave of political assassinations to destabilize Lebanon in this extended political vacuum.
Actually, for two months Israel has been escalating its war threats in frequent speeches and in actions along Lebanon’s south borders. After Jumblatt split from his previous alliance, Israel toned down its threats.
Israel never dared launched its frequent offensive wars on any people that is united under unity national governments.
Walid Jumblatt knows that in matter of Lebanon internal security, in the balance, Syria out weight all the world States diplomacy combined.
There was a period of an entire year after the assassination of Rafic Hariri in 2005 where Syria seemed on the defensive and refrained from interfering in Lebanon’s endemic problems. This is when the alliance of March 14 was created to salvage the international court and make sure that Syria withdrew from Lebanon.
For three years, this March 14 alliance went as far as condemning Hezbollah defensive war against Israel in July 12, 2006 and sucking up to Bush Junior and Condalisa.
This period is witnessing a major shift of rapprochement toward Syria. Saudi Kingdom policies are becoming closer to Syria’s policies than Egypt of Mubarak. Mubarak has been keeping the formation of our government hostage to his senile policies.
The fact is Egypt under Mubarak has retreated from the “Arab” States issues, is out of the Arab world and out of Africa too. Moubarak is not even able to get the Palestinian Hamas and Fatah to agree on a few common denominators.
Saad Hariri has lost the confidence of the Lebanese people as the appropriate PM at this junction. Hariri squandered all the good will and patience that the opposition was willing to extend. Hariri opted to wait for external powers to agree among themselves, instead of uniting Lebanon under a unity national government. (Nothing changed in his attitude: he is still waiting for foreign powers to give him the Green Light to form a government in 2021)
I coined a quote: “You want to go into politics in Lebanon? Warnings! Observe Saad Hariri. First you don’t think much, then your mind quickly slides into deep coma.”
Note 1: Lately, with the Syrian uprising in 2011, Walid crossed the Rubicon and sided squarely with the rebels: He hates the Assad family because the late Hafez Assad assassinated Walid father, Kamal Jumblatt. The Druze in Syria didn’t respond to Walid’s calls to join the insurrection…
Note 2: In the current government of Mikati PM (2012), Walid is boasting that he is the power broker between the two majority blocks in the government, but is mostly siding with Mikati and the opposition March 14 alliance of the Mubarak.
Bi-weekly report on Lebanon (December 18, 2008)
President Michel Suleiman visited Jordan for two days and he made a detour to pray on the supposed location where Jean the Baptist stayed to baptize the Jews by the Jordan River.
Before President Suleiman, the other Michel, Current General and President Aoun visited Syria and followed the trails of St. Paul and other Christian Saints.
You might think that there is a new religious Christian fervor in the Middle East; it is simply a highly political message to the USA and Europe: the Christians in the Middle East (Orthodox, Catholic, and an entire gamut of original sects) were the bedrock of Christianity, the first Christian communities that were established in this region.
And all the initial Christian sects originated from here. The Christians in the Middle East were the backbone of civilizations during the Roman, Byzantine and Arab Empires.
These religious tours on the trails of the prophets and ancient churches are highly political and expressing the survival state of the Christians in this region because the western States have given the racist and apartheid State of Israel the green light to relocate the Middle East Christians people.
Israel wants to be the unique State religion, different from the Christians, in this Muslim region to draw constant sympathy and support.
Israel also has taken advantage of the invasion of Iraq to assassinate thousands of most Iraqi scientists and professors (the names and profession of the assassinated Iraqi scientist are listed in the internet).
The Lebanese Parliament has been in session for 3 days and over 44 deputies are listed to talk extensively.
The purpose is to lambaste the deficiencies of a government that is Not even a government: this government objective is to prepare for a fair and just election in May.
That is beside the point: the deputies consider this platform as sort of free and official election campaigns.
We have a government of 30 ministers where 20 of them have No offices and do nothing but to vote during the council.
It does not matter what the council of ministers votes on, it is Seniora PM, the dictator for the moment, and he can bypass any resolution and let the opposition parties and organization talk and demonstrate, “3ala ejro”.
Seniora PM and the so-called March 14 alliance are relying heavily on the oligarchic Saudi Kingdom to finance their re-election campaigns with the political support of the dictator Mubarak of Egypt who does not care if the Palestinians in Gaza die of famine.
The minister of defense, Elias Murr, visited Russia and signed an agreement to have 10 used fighter jets MIG 29 delivered to Lebanon. This deal is pretty symbolic, just a recognition of the neighboring States for the independence and self-autonomy of Lebanon because the USA is politically unable to deliver fighter jets to Lebanon. (As if Lebanon budget can afford to maintain a single jet fighter)
This air fleet should be compatible to the Syrian air force for purposes of training and maintenance.
We are still in the dark of who will be paying for the heavy expenses of flying and maintaining symbolic materials.
I read today that another political movement is being created and called “National and Social Renaissance Movement”; a splinter of the “Syria National Social Party”. The name Syria has been dropped and the purpose of this movement is to focus on the doctrines of the original leader late Antun Saadi and to institute study groups for reforms. The fact of insisting on the totality of doctrines that are 70 years old is not compatible to renaissance in my dictionary.
In a previous article, I gave samples of our brand of political self-criticisms. I will mention just a few of these lovely and magnificent mea culpas:
“I embezzled the government. I ransomed the people. I slaughtered citizens on confessional basis. I jailed citizens in deep wells for years. I am not apologizing. I am just stating facts that all the other leaders also committed”. Feudal and sectarian leader Walid Jumblatt
“I admit that I made errors and mistakes but it was all for the good cause” (Militia leader Samir Ja3ja). This leader didn’t see it appropriate to give samples of his atrocities such as assassinating prime ministers, clerics, and shooting army officers after their surrender. All these atrocities were for the “good cause”.
“I committed the worst atrocities to thousands of citizens but those who assassinated my father did the unforgivable. My country Lebanon can go to hell but I insist on my revenge.”
“I admit to errors and mistakes and would do them again under the same conditions”
Another wave of assassinations readied
Posted by: adonis49 on: June 29, 2009
Another wave of assassinations readied: Bi-Weekly report (#26)
Israel has readied another wave of assassinations in Lebanon. The main strategy of Israel in Lebanon is to encourage civil wars because it is helpless to tame the Lebanese by brute force; it tried it three times after 1992 and failed miserably. As soon as Israel gathers intelligence on social unrest in Lebanon then it begins enflaming sectarian conflicts that the Lebanese have not manage to overcome by its archaic political structure and election laws.
We can already predict the timing of political assassinations when the governments in Lebanon fail to form unity government. Israel participated heavily in the execution of an international decision to assassinate late Rafic Hariri PM because the timing was appropriate. After Israel and Cheney assassinated Rafic Hariri then Israel went on assassinating the intellectuals and activists George Hawi, Samir Kassir, and Jubran Tuweiny who were in the vanguard of seeking unity among the Lebanese. The civil war failed to materialize because the leaders of the majority in the Parliament knew that these assassinations were perpetrated by Israel and not by the opposition or Syria.
Israel resumed another wave of assisations on political figures and Deputies such as young Pierre Gemayel. Civil war failed to take off and thus Israel decided to activate her military plan to invading south Lebanon for the seventh time. The war occured in June 2006; after 33 days of active bombardement and destruction of Lebanon’s infrastructure the ground attack failed miserably because Hezbollah resistance kept her ground and defended evey yard and evey town.
The trend of assassination before the June war 2006 and afterward pointed to close cooperation with Israel among inside Lebanese leaders; it was as if the Lebanese leaders were implicitly selecting for Israel the potential personalities that are disposable for assassination because they constituted liability for the progress of George W. Bush and French Chirac strategy in the Greater Middle East.
What prompted my article is that after the parliamentary election of June 7, 2009, the same majority in the Parliament are trying to resume their older plan of failing to form a unity government as was agreed on in Dowha. The signs are pretty leaning toward that direction of hording the government and key civil posts in the administration. The majority elected 4 under-secretaries to Nabih Berri in the Parliament such as Marwan Hamadeh, Fatfat, Ogasapian, and Zahrat and eliminated a representative of the Tayyar of General Aoun who has a block of 27 deputies out of 128. These four under-secretaries are servile to their masters and big mouths but they share one other common denominator: they failed to recognize the new dynamics in the region and thus they have become huge liability to their leaders; they should have declined to resume doing politics as usual and stepped out of politics.
My hunch is that if within 10 days Saad Hariri (called upon by 86 Deputies to form a government) drags his feet in constituting a unity government then Israel would have received the strong hint to try destabilizing Lebanon and would step in. It stands to reason that one of the first candidates for assassination could be from among those big mouths that are serious liabilities to their leaders and have served their duties. There is another Deputy who is a liability to all leaders and has no value in representing any one; his death has greater value for short term gains during the formation of a government.
Iran won on two counts in the latest round of problems during and after the election. The Iranians have proven that they have national objectives and are ready for reforms. I would have been sceptic that the regime in Iran is functioning well if not for these mass demonstrations that are pointing direction for change and rejuvenation of an empire.
