Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘black swan

Tidbits #39

Your odds to win at Bingo game boil down to the number of cards you’re playing divided by the total number of cards in play. If there are 100 cards in play, and you’re playing 5, your odds of winning are 5 in 100, or 1 in 20.

This is assuming 5 factors: 1) That no one is tampering with the balls, 2) none of the balls are damaged or dented, 3) the number picker is working correctly, 4) you’re perfectly eagle-eyed, and that 5) you’re not playing a progressive bingo game.

Printing money to satisfy growth of internal market is what Ben Franklin advised 3 centuries ago to help the colonies since they had the privilege of printing their own currency. When there is No growth anywhere, all that printing of worthless currencies (especially in colonial powers) to cover the expenses of Corona lockdown is the main factor that will hinder the resurgence of global trade.

Saudi Arabia earns $8.5 bn per year from pilgrims to Mecca, its second-biggest industry after oil (~$200 billion per year). (10 m x 12 m x 15 m): Dimensions of the Kaaba. 300 kg is the weight of the solid gold door on the Kaaba’s northeastern side, set 7 feet above the ground.

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Copies of Animal Crossing: New Horizons sold in its first week than the combined launch sales of all previous games in the series. It’s made the Switch as hot a commodity as toilet paper.

The After Corona trade will mostly be bartering goods among the adjacent countries.

The Corona principle: Il faut attendre l’âge óu on prend conscience que le present est plus interessant que le future

China managed to increase exports amid this pandemic. Shipments increased 3.5% last month, compared to the year before, driven mostly by exports to other Asian countries. And a double-digit drop in imports: Accumulating inventory of more foreign currencies?

Reuters reports that US officials drafted detailed plans—called the “Artemis Accords—that allows businesses to own any resources they might extract in the Moon

For half of a decade, photographer Alison Turner traveled around the United States, visually documenting bingo halls in small towns across America. “Each location I encountered brought in a true sense of community, complete with their own unique set of personalities and characters. A place where emotions of despair and hope come hand and hand throughout the night,” Turner writes.

Mosquito salivate disinfectant where they sting: Not because they don’t want to infect us, but in order Not to be infected themselves

Mosquito sting between two pain receptors: Not because they don’t want to hurt us, but because they need extra seconds to flee before we react violently

“Framing the increased flow of people fleeing war and poverty as a ‘migrant crisis‘ misses the point. It assumes that it is the arrival of these people, rather than the situations they are trying to escape, that is the problem.”

La haine contre le Capitalisme est demeuré théorique: La haine fut détournée sur l’ étranger, l’ apostat, le maitre, l’esclave, le pere, la mere…

We’re more often than Not unknowingly limited in our observations and knowledge, and what we consider within the realm of possibility can change rapidly under the right circumstances.  Example, spotting a Black swan.

The observation of a black swan has 3 attributes: it is an outlier; it has extreme impact; and that, despite its outlier status, people will come up with explanations for its occurrence after the fact.

Ministry of Solitude and isolation? A State institution encouraging and facilitating the job of municipalities to open centers for elderly people to meet and offer them tasks they still have the capability to perform.

Covid-19 purpose? Previous economics were virtual (financial bubble): lots of “worthless” currencies transferred any which way.  The current economics will be base on relations of real production and tangible collaterals. This virtual economy financial bubble needs now to be deflated.

All monarchs in the “Arabic world” are stooges to the USA and colonial powers. As long as their “personal dignity” is saved, “faites comme chez-vous”. Fortunately, Trump wiped all that and trampled the Saudi King, again and again, but the illusions of “dignity” are still strong.

Le germe du capitalism fut révélé’ au début du 18eme siècle: “Que vos vices demeurent prive’, et que vos conduites and opinions en publique soient “vertueuses”, en accord avec la morale dominante.” (Silent Majority)

En Occident, il est moralement plus correct d’aller en guerre que de résoudre un problème par le bakchich dans les pays sous-développé’

 

Antifragile: what can Gain from Disorder (Incerto)?  And Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the bestselling author of The Black Swan and one of the foremost thinkers of our time, reveals how to thrive in an uncertain world.

I have reviewed and developed on the Black Swan theory in several articles https://adonis49.wordpress.com/2011/06/01/part-1-black-swan-model-can-rare-catastrophic-events-of-man-made-systems-be-controlled/

Black Swan is a term coined after discovering a black swan a couple of years ago.  People firmly believed that all swans were white:  A few might have observed a black swan but refused to identify it as a swan; or black swans are common sight in particular regions and people had no idea that black swans are considered rarity all over the world and might be purchased for their weight in gold to be raised in zoos!

You know the adage: “If an event can occur, it will happen“, meaning, it does not matter how low the predicted probability of occurrence of the rare events, it will strike “unexpectedly”.

If there is a chance in a million for an asteroid to smash onto earth, an asteroid will fall on our head: Asteroid did fall and transform earth several times in the last four billion years.

Just as human bones get stronger when subjected to stress and tension, and rumors or riots intensify when someone tries to repress them, many phenomena in life benefit from stress, disorder, volatility, and turmoil.

What Taleb has identified and calls “antifragile” is that category of things that not only gain from chaos but need it in order to survive and flourish.

The Black Swan theory states: “In complex systems, especially man-made complex systems, it is not feasible to comprehend all the interactions among the hundred of variables affecting outcomes. In man-made systems, we have to allow natural fluctuations that are at work.

The rare predicted calamitous events  will strike unexpectedly, and we will fail to react accordingly and adequately if we consciously avoid to consistently take them into consideration in our analysis and reports.”

The unexpected events cannot be analyzed as odds in card games or casino games:  Human behavior with thousands of variability in moods, emotions, conventions, conviction, personal experiences… cannot be predicted as games are.

In The Black Swan, Taleb showed us that highly improbable and unpredictable events underlie almost everything about our world.

In Antifragile, Taleb stands uncertainty on its head, making it desirable, even necessary, and proposes that things be built in an antifragile manner.

The antifragile is beyond the resilient or robust. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better and better.

The antifragile is immune to prediction errors and protected from adverse events.

Why is the city-state better than the nation-state,?

Why is debt bad for you, and why is what we call “efficient” not efficient at all?

Why do government responses and social policies protect the strong and hurt the weak?

Why should you write your resignation letter before even starting on the job?

How did the sinking of the Titanic save lives?

The book spans innovation by trial and error, life decisions, politics, urban planning, war, personal finance, economic systems, and medicine.

And throughout, in addition to the street wisdom of Fat Tony of Brooklyn, the voices and recipes of ancient wisdom, from Roman, Greek, Semitic, and medieval sources, are loud and clear.

Antifragile is a blueprint for living in a Black Swan world.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb said:

The most rewarding moment in an author’s career. Finally, I am no longer the author of several books. I am now the author of a single book in 4 volumes: INCERTO, plus technical companions.

Why does it matter? I don’t know, but it is a big, very big deal to see your work as a single large coherent and self contained unit, to which you keep adding pieces to, ultimately, leave very few stones unturned

   

What’s so Improbably in these Animal Friendships? If their stomachs are satisfied? (30 pics)

Unlike mankind and insects, the animal species is very friendly with other species if the stomach is filled and not left in the wild to survive

I Can’t Believe It” posted this June 9, 2013

Strange and Improbably Animal Friendships! (30 pics)

After spending a lot of time alone in the same room of the owners house, they grew fond of each other.

The crow is almost always on the dog’s back, the dog even barks when people try to touch his pal.

The owner built a custom harness for more comfortable rides.

A black swan feeding fish at a public park.

After a devastating forest fire, fire rescue ran out of crates for the animals saved from the blazes. This fawn and baby bobcat were placed together in the office.

Hours later, firemen noticed they’d taken a liking to one another and cuddled for the duration they were kept together.

A duck and house cat raised together by a family.

Supposedly the duck hates water and hasn’t figured out yet that it can fly.

This macaque and dove lived together in an animal protection center off the coast of China. They ate, played, and slept together for two months before being released into the wild.

A wild life park in China adopted two tiger cubs, which were soon adopted by a worker’s dog that happened to be in the pen frequently.

The Fernandez family adopted a tiger cub after he lost his family.

He’s been raised with the family dog since youth and they are inseparable.

A five week old boar plays with Candy, the jack Russell terrier in Ehringhausen, Germany.

Humphrey was a house pet that became too large and was moved to the Rhino and Lion Nature Reserve in South Africa, where he was safe but lonely.

Cameroon Pygmy Mountain Goat climbed Humphrey’s enclosure fence and befriended him.

Sobe the iguana and Johann the cat were both rescued by a woman in Brooklyn, NY.

Every day when the iguana is let out of her cage, she seeks out Johann for play time, along with a rabbit also kept as a pet.

A baby hippo was swept away by a tsunami and rescued by a wild-life reservation.

A 130 year old tortoise immediately befriended him.

Everyone knows who Koko the gorilla that speaks sign language is. For her birthday one year, she signed to her teacher that she wanted a kitten.

Koko’s teacher wasn’t surprised, as Koko’s two favorite books were about cats. They adopted one from an abandoned litter and Koko showed it tender care and gentleness.

A lioness abandoned by her pack decides to adopted a baby impala after killing its mother. Several times, she tried to leave the baby in the company of other impalas, but ended up having to take the baby back under her wing after the adult impalas were frightened away by her

A lion, tiger, and bear raised together in the same enclosure at Noah’s Ark Sanctuary in GA play ball, cuddle, and chase each other.

A giraffe and ostrich form an odd friendship at Busch Garden’s in Florida.

A baby impala was left behind after the rest of its group ran away from the cheetahs. Instead of preying on the impala, they played gently with it a bit before simply getting bored and leaving it.

Owls that hatched at a hawk conservatory were adopted by the park keeper and became friends with his pet dog.

After a family took in this stray cat, she grew fond of their elderly dog.

Realizing the dog was blind, the cat took on the responsibility of leading the dog to his water, food, shade, and toys. She would follow closely under his chin to guide him.

A stray cat wandered into this asiastic bear’s enclosure at the Berlin Zoo. It’s been coming back frequently for 10 years to visit its friend.

This pair have been seen together for over a year in Lake Van, Turkey.

They were first spotted by local fisherman who witnessed them sharing a fish and playing together.

At the TIGERS institute in South Carolina, a chimp raises tiger cubs after they were separated from their mother.

A photographer witnessed a wild polar bear coming upon tethered sled dogs in the wilderness of Canada’s Hudson Bay.

Instead of devouring the dogs, they played and cuddled. The polar bear returned every night that week.

Other examples of strange and improbably animal friendships:


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

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