Posts Tagged ‘care-taker governments’
Lebanon to where? After this intermediate stage (opposition government) to a State of citizenship
Posted by: adonis49 on: July 1, 2011
Lebanon to where? This intermediate stage to a State of citizenship
Finally, Mikati PM formed a government. For over four months, the Lebanese knew that Mikati was waiting for a “green light” from a regional power to stop suffocating Lebanon with irrelevant local smokescreens. Anyway, Lebanon has been run by “virtual governments” for decades, most of the time the sort of care-taker governments, governments that run daily affairs for their families, waiting for short-lived official governments to be sworn in. So what happened?
At first, Syria of Bashar al Assad was in no hurry for Mikati to constituting a government: Bashar was waiting for concessions from the US and Saudi Arabia to ease his way…Concessions were not forthcoming: Instead, a popular revolt was fomented against, or “naturally erupted as urgent moratorium on”, this dictator clannish regime of the Assad family.
Hezbollah was seriously shaken with the hysterical violent reactions of the Syrian regime in confronting peaceful early marches. Hezbollah felt that, if the Bashar al Assad fails to regain his composure as a reliable and viable legitimate entity, the Syrian dictator might cow down under the pressures of the US and European States, and strike a deal at the expense of Hezbollah’s growing power in Lebanon.
Consequently, Hezbollah lead a concentrated effort to coax Bashar to focusing some of his attention to the deteriorating situation in Lebanon and put the squeeze on Mikati PM to forming a government, and immediately.
The rational of Hezbollah was that, if Lebanon is left in the vacuum with no legitimate government, most probably Syria might be cornered to conduct incursions within Lebanon borders and things might get out of hand. The Syrian regime realized that it behaved hysterically and went overboard, killing and incarcerating scores of innocent people and peaceful demonstrators.
The Syrian opposition groupuscules were invited to meet in Damascus, instead of moving around between Turkey, Paris, and lately Russia…The strategy worked. And General Secretary of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasr Allah, delivered his third speech frankly supporting the Assad regime
Mikati PM formed a government quickly, but it has yet to submit to Parliament a unified paper of intent as to its guidelines. It is no surprise that this politisized International Court for the assassination of Rafic Hariri decided to submit the miserly four names as potential perpetrators to the assassination. Mikati PM government finalized its paper to coincide with the International Court decision.
Hezbollah is temporarily off the hook, and the threat of a deal with Syria of Bashar at its expense has been delayed. Why?
First, the submission of official names by the International Court (IC) releaves Lebanon from this masquerade that has been dragging on for over 6 years: The four names have been out of Lebanon for the last 30 years, and two of the names are believed to be virtual names, not registered as Lebanese “citizens”. The IC “bomb” landed but didn’t explode: Lebanon went on as usual. Even if the US and Israel detonate the bomb by remote control, most likely the bomb is totally outdated and rotten and will do no damage that the Lebanese have endured in the last decade.
Second, the blade of the sword of the International Court on the assassination of late Rafic Hariri PM has been blunted: Hezbollah did a good job discrediting this politicized court. The Lebanese have learned that the legitimacy in the institution of this special International Court is to be desired. Why?
First, the UN has no basis to seeking chapter seven: Lebanon was not experiencing any civil war, and no massacres were witnessed. A “legitimate” government was running the country. What of the far more serious cases of “crimes against humanity” of President of Bashir of Sudan that UN is waiting to be captured and yet being warmly welcomed in China? What of Qadhafi and his son…? What of Bush Jr., Ramsfield, Tony Blair,…
Second, the Lebanese government of Seniora PM was barely representing 30% of the people when it demanded for the institution of this court. All the Shiaa ministers (representing 60% of the people) had quit the government. And the ministers of the Christian political party of the Tayyar (representing more than 50% of the Christians) had also quit the government. By the Constitution, if one of the main religious group is out of the government then, the government is not “legitimate”…
Lebanon is a very tiny, highly volatile, unstable society, and NOT immune to radical revolts. How unstable?
First, since independence in 1943, Lebanon officially recognized two failed internal coup d’etats, one in 1949 and another in 1961. There are a dozen of other unofficial military coups. Lately, Lebanon witnessed a minor failed coup d’etat at the ministry of communication, because a private interest wanted to conserve its mobile communication business.
Second, Lebanon witnessed two civil wars, one in 1958 and another one in 1975 that lasted 17 years. Since the end of the civil war in 1991, Lebanon experienced a major military coup d’etat in 2008 that started in the Palestinian camp of Nahr el Bared around Tripoli: The army needed 11 months to overcome the uprising of the Islamist salafists Jund al Sham. Many short-lived unofficially recognized civil wars occurred since 1991.
Beirut experienced a quick military coup in 2007 by Hezbollah, as the government attempted to control land communication lines. The war of 2006 against Israel was actually a military coup perpetrated by the Lebanese government to control Hezbollah’s military might.
Third, Lebanon is practically a Non-State country since its independence. The 18 religious sects represent the main de-facto powers and also by law to exercising political influence. Civil status of every “citizen” is run and administered by the officially recognized religious sects that own more than 50% of the land. Every religious sect is backed by over three confessional “political parties”.
The two historically secular political parties, the communist and the Syrian National Social parties, were denied participation in the Parliament via biased and tailored-made election laws and procedures. The Syrian National Social party was recently permitted to enter the parliament, carried on the shoulders of other main confessional parties. The multi-theocratic system, backed by the financial institutions that lend Lebanon governments to cover their budget deficit, have vested interests in prohibiting the constitution of any viable and sustainable modern State governing system.
Fourth, Lebanon lacks sustainable public institutions and any long-term programs and policies. The only benefit the citizen enjoys is a mere passport. There exist no serious governance for the people to march against and demand reforms. It is like demanding from Qadhafi to relinquish his authority and Qadhafi replying: “But I have no official posts or even an official job to relinquish!”
This “opposition” government will do a great job “masking our virtual State” in strengthening the legal system, confront the highway robberies of the Hariri clan governments, and give the impression that Lebanon is an autonomous State…but the fundamentals will not change and Lebanon will remain a multi-theocratic State, run by the financial institutions and clerics…
The hot season has started in the northern hemisphere, and the stream of “Spring Revolts” might cool off a bit. In Lebanon, we missed the spring upheavals that swept the “Arab” world, but we planted the seed of a fresh drastic non-violent revolt for the next spring season.
The youth in Lebanon organized five marches in various cities in Lebanon demanding change in the confessional political structure. The banners of “We want to change the regime” is extending credit to a non-State, as if Lebanon has a State and non a virtual State run by de-facto clerical and financial powers. What the banners should say are: “We want to create a State”, and “We want to feel citizens in the modern concept of a State”.
Next Spring, the revolt will still be non-violent, but the target and purpose of the revolt will not be a matter of patching up a reform here and another there. The traditional “leaders” have demonstrated that they refuse to establish a functioning State for all “citizens”: Lebanon has been run by Non-State governments, or care-taker governments.
The youth Movement for Change must be ready for the dawn of the next spring season: It must start doing serious due diligence. For example,
First, specialized teams have to dig-up and dust-off the policies and programs stored in the basements of ministries. The goal of reviewing and revising already studied programs is: “A political system from the people to the people”.
The Lebanese have to feel true citizens with equal rights under the law. The Lebanese have to enjoy fair and equitable election laws that allow common people to accede to decision-making positions.
Laws have to be revised for citizens, regardless of genders, race, or religious affiliation, to have fair opportunities to all political positions and job opportunities in the public and private institutions and enterprises.
The Constitution has to be re-written to separate religion from civil power and responsibility…
Radical changes are possible: There are no other alternatives to patching up a rotten political and social structure; it is not feasible to move on with small incremental reforms under the power of the ferocious religious and financial oligarchies that have been dominating our lives and subjugating us to constant instability and indignities.
We have grown up to be mature and responsible adult “citizens”. Lebanon is Not immune to drastic revolts, and the next revolution will be successful!
Is Lebanon political system immune to radical non-violent revolts? Black Swan theory NOT applicable? Think again!
Posted by: adonis49 on: June 3, 2011
Is Lebanon political system immune to radical non-violent revolts?
Black Swan theory NOT applicable to Lebanon? Think again!
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (see note), the mathematician who wrote “The Black Swan: The power of the unpredictable” published an article in the French weekly Le Courrier International. Nassim stated that Lebanon’s political structure, as in Italy, is immune to drastic revolts similar to those taking place in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Yemen…
Taleb contends that since governments in Lebanon take turn representing “opposition alliances”, as in Italy, the inherent and natural fluctuations in the system instability are resolved naturally.
Taleb said that dictator regimes fall badly because the system try hard to control minor legitimate discontents, and consequently, the system is fragile when any major revolt strikes unexpectedly.
(As a reminder, Black Swan is a term coined after discovering a black swan a couple of years ago. People firmly believed that all swans were white: A few might have observed a black swan, but refused to identify it as a swan. Maybe black swans are common sight in particular regions and people had no idea that black swans are considered rarity all over the world and might be purchased for their weight in gold to be raised in zoos!)
Either Taleb is using selective memory, or he is not that familiar with Lebanon’s political structure history after staying abroad for so long. I suspect that Taleb confused catalysts with causes in the case of Lebanon, a confusion he frequently warned against in analyzing the cases of the “Arab Spring” revolts and the financial crisis.
First, since independence in 1943, Lebanon experienced two failed internal coup d’etats, one in 1949 and another in 1961, and several uprising such as in 1950, 1958, and 1974… Last week, the Moustakbal party that led an alliance which governed Lebanon since 1991, has tried a failed coup d’etat to conserve its mobile communication interests: The general director of the internal forces, General Reefy, led a force of 400 armed men and occupied the second flat in the communication ministry. The director of the communication ministry, Youssof, a stauch member of the Moustakbal of Saad Hariri PM party, participated in that stupid undertaking.
Second, Lebanon witnessed two civil wars, one in 1958 and another one in 1975 that lasted 17 years. Since the end of the civil war in 1991, Lebanon experienced a major military coup d’etat in 2008 that started in the Palestinian camp of Nahr el Bared around Tripoli: The army needed 11 months to overcome the uprising of the Islamist salafists Jund al Sham.
Beirut experienced a quick military coup in 2007 by Hezbollah, as the government attempted to control land communication lines. The war of 2006 against Israel was actually a military coup perpetrated by the Lebanese government to control Hezbollah’s military might.
Third, Italy has true political parties with programs and policies. The election laws in Italy are among the fairest and most equitable in the western States. Frequent changes in governments didn’t prevent Italy to continue being among the leading economic powers in the world. Italy is very generous in investing in the poorer nations and its grants are relied upon in most States around the Mediterranean Sea basin. Italy has many contingents in the various UN peace-keeping forces…
Whereas Lebanon is practically a Non-State country since its independence, a pseudo State by any criteria. The 18 religious sects represent the main powers by law, and they exercise de-facto political influence. Civil status of every “citizen” is run and administered by the officially recognized religious sects that own more than 50% of the land.
Every religious sect is backed by over three confessional “political parties”. The two historically secular political parties, the communist and the Syrian National Social parties, were denied participation in the Parliament via tailored-made election laws and procedures. The Syrian National Social party was recently permitted to enter the parliament, carried on the shoulders of other main confessional parties.
Fourth, Lebanon lacks sustainable public institutions and any long-term programs and policies. The only benefit the citizen enjoys is a mere passport. The are no serious governance for the people to march against and demand reforms. Was Taleb aware of the actual conditions and situation in Lebanon for him to catagorize Lebanon as falling in line within the “stable” political systems and immune to radical revolts as Italy?
The hot season has started in the northern hemisphere, and the Spring Revolt might cool off a bit. In Lebanon, we missed the spring upheavals that swept the “Arab” world, but we planted the seed of a fresh drastic non-violent revolt for the next spring season.
The youth in Lebanon organized 5 marches in various cities in Lebanon demanding change in the confessional political structure. Next Spring, the revolt will still be non-violent, but the target and purpose of the revolt will not be a matter of a reform here and another there.
The traditonal “leaders” have demonstrated that they refuse to establish a functioning State for all “citizens”: Lebanon has been run by Non-State governments, or care-taker governments.
The Movement for Change must be ready for the dawn of the next spring season: It must start doing serious due dilligence.
First, specialized teams have to dig-up and dust-off the policies and programs stored in the basements of ministries. The goal of reviewing and revising already studied programs is: “A political system from the people to the people”.
Second, the Lebanese have to feel true citizens with equal rights under the law. The Lebanese have to enjoy fair and equitable election laws that allow common people to acceed to decision-making positions.
Third, Laws have to be revised for citizens, regardless of genders, race, or religious affiliation, to have fair opportunities to all political positions and job opportunities in the public and private institutions and enterprises.
Fourth, The Constitution has to be re-written to separate religion from civil power and responsibility…
Radical changes are possible: There are no other alternatives to patching up a rotten political and social structure; it is not feasible to move on with small incremental reforms under the power of the ferocious religious and financial oligarchies that have been dominating our lives and subjugating us to constant instability and indignities.
We have grown up to be mature and responsible adult “citizens”
Note 1: Nassim Taleb, a mathematician, was a trader and worked for 20 years as consultant to large investment banks in New York and London. He created Empirica LLC for trading. He is engineering professor at the polytechnic institute at the University of New York. Taleb published “Savage hazard” and “The Black Swan: The power of the unpredictable.”
Note 2: The deposed Saad Hariri PM is a Saudi citizen first, and has been located in Saudi Arabia for the past three months, taking care of private business, and is currently established in Paris….
