Adonis Diaries

Emerging nations is becoming a catch all expression that is diluting its meaning and its proper definition.  For example, should we include China among the emerging nations, when the US admits that China is already at a par as an economic and political heavy weight?  Should we include Russia as an emerging nation when Russia was the first State to putting man in orbit, launching satellites, and establishing a permanent sky station?

Can we lump together nations with vast lands and large populations with smaller nations in lands and populations, even substantial progress have been made in global trade share?  The club of the G20 gathered the 20 nations whose combined world trade represents 80% of commerce in import and export of goods and services.  You find small nations with corresponding small populations such as the Netherlands, Denmark, and South Korea siding along India, Brazil, Russia, and China.

Shouldn’t we consider the most critical criteria of sustainable long-term potentials as a delimiting factor among economic clubs?  For example, first, let us list nations with vast lands and large populations such as the USA, China, Russia, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, and Pakistan.  Obviously, the political structure and proven stability for demonstrating viable sustainability is a discriminating variable among those behemoths.

Second, let us list nations with vast lands and sparse populations such as Canada, Australia, South Africa, Argentina, Libya, Chad, Niger, Kazakhstan, Mali, Sudan, Mauritania, and Saudi Arabia…Obviously, the ratio of fertile lands to the mostly desolate and desert areas is a variable, along with literacy ratio of the small population.

Third, let us list nations with vast lands and moderately populated such as Egypt, Nigeria, Algeria, Vietnam, Turkey, Iran, and Thailand.

Fourth, let’s list nations with smaller lands and over populated such as Bangladesh, Japan, France, England, Germany, Italy, Spain, Ethiopia, Kenya, Morocco, and Iraq.

Fifth, let us list smaller nations with comparatively small populations such as The Netherlands, Denmark, Belgium, Syria, South Korea, Taiwan…

The remaining nations are in fact no nations, if we consider the potential impact for making a dent in world trades, and political weight.

Consequently, we have potential emerging nations is sustainable economy with comparatively stable political structures that convey a viable trend in the medium term.  Among the truly current emerging nations that have no political clout in the UN or in international institutions and have legitimacy in demanding to be included as full members in the G-Clubs are South Africa, Brazil, India, Turkey, Indonesia, and Mexico.  For example, between 2004 and 2008, South Africa witnessed a steady increase in trade averaging 16.5% per year.  Turkey doubled its trade and so did the other emerging nations.  The six emerging nations are acquiring substantial economic weight and will be displacing many established developed nations in the coming decade.