Since Islamic State (Isis) were formed in their current incarnation in April last year, they have had a dilemma: how to gain legitimacy from the local population while continuing to be ruthless and genocidal against fellow Sunnis.
The decision by the American-led coalition to strike against Isis while overlooking the Assad regime seems to have resolved this dilemma for the jihadist organisation. What Isis will lose in terms of strength and numbers as a result of the air strikes they might gain in terms of legitimacy.
Air strikes against Isis were inevitable, as the group’s advances towards Baghdad, Erbil and northern Syria seemed irreversible by local forces. But the way the US-led coalition, which the UK has now joined, has conducted itself so far threatens to worsen the situation in favour of Isis.
Most importantly, by overlooking the regime of Bashar al-Assad, which caused the death of nearly 200,000 Syrians, the air strikes create the perception that the international coalition is providing a lifeline to the regime. Despite repeated reassurance by Washington, such a perception is likely to become entrenched if the Assad regime begins to fill the vacuum left by the offensive against Isis, especially that there has been no evidence yet that the opposition forces are part of the military strategy against Isis.
The regime might deliberately step up its campaign in some areas to retake areas it has recently lost to the jihadist group to reinforce that perception, as Syrian officials were quick to issue statements that the regime had been briefed about the air raids before they were launched.Many Syrian rebel factions, including ones directly financed by the Americans and the Gulf states, expressed reservations about, or opposition to, the air strikes, including Harakat Hazm, Division 13, Suqour al-Sham.
The significance of such statements is that they are issued by groups currently operating in areas outside Isis control but which are adjacent to Isis front lines. That makes them more capable than other groups of being part of potential ground forces to attack Isis under air cover. Even though some of these groups made such pronouncements mostly for practical reasons, since they are the ones who will bear the consequences of any failure to dislodge Isis as they fight on the ground, they are also concerned that the international campaign will aid the Assad regime.
Regionally, the offensive against Isis has received a similar cynical reaction from groups and people in the Middle East. The Muslim Brotherhood, including prominent figures such as Doha-based Yusuf al-Qaradawi, condemned the attacks inside Syria.
Arab countries that have participated in the international military campaign (Not in soldiers) including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan, have been particularly criticised for failing to push for a formula that undermines Isis and Assad at the same time. In comparison, Iran opposed the air strikes against Isis in Syria while Turkey made it clear that the offensive would fail without moves to undermine the Assad regime, including a no-fly zone. (Turkey is becoming the main culprit in sustaining Al Nusra terrorists in north west Syria)
These attitudes mean that Isis are set to gain from the international campaign against them, if the current strategy does not change. Based on conversations with people from eastern Syria, including Isis members and sympathisers, the offensive against Isis seems to have already achieved one thing for the jihadi group: to push some Isis members who were on the periphery into their core, and neutralise some of their Islamist opponents.
Many of Isis members are new to the group and they are still ideologically uncertain. But since Isis are now face to face with a numerically exaggerated alliance led by Washington, Isis members who could otherwise shift away from the group have become more determined adherents.
Isis can afford to lose their supply lines, infrastructure and many of their members – who are likely to be among the ones who recently joined it – as long as they can compensate by achieving popular recognition. They are already adapting to the campaign, reducing checkpoints (now mostly mobile) to a minimum and relocating weapons warehouses to safe areas in both Iraq and Syria.
People inside Syria say most of the bases or facilities hit by air strikes had been already emptied. While the air raids will surely undermine Isis’s ability to generate revenue by disrupting supply lines from factories or oilfields, Isis can survive without such easy-money resources. Also, it is important to highlight that Isis have established an intricate sleeper cell system that has not been unveiled, even when they felt secure in their territories.
Legitimacy for the fight against Isis cannot be achieved by simply having Sunni countries involved in it, but, rather, by addressing the true reasons that drove tens of thousands of Syrians to rise up against the regime.
Regardless of who is involved in the campaign, the perception is that the allies have overlooked the acts of the Assad regime over the past three years and quickly assembled a major international coalition against a group that the Syrian rebels have been fighting since last summer.
Unless the strategy against Isis shifts to a broader one that appeals to the local communities, the fight against it is doomed.
(Note: the USA still air bomb the Syrian army when it approaches ISIS strongholds)
Hassan Hassan is an analyst with the Delma Institute, a research house in Abu Dhabi. @hxhassan
Adonis Diaries 
Notes and comments on FB and Twitter. Part 28
Posted by: adonis49 on: May 11, 2017
Notes and comments on FB and Twitter. Part 28
Les bouleversements graves ménent une existence souterraine. Le genie politique est de les débusqués a temps
On a negligé de considerer serieusement les limites irreversibles du climat: Le mal est deja incurable.
The language of Daesh and Al Nusra has No connection with Arabic. The source is pre-historic “Arabic Peninsula”
People in the urban centers in the Arab World don’t understand the rhetorical language of Daesh and Al Nusra
The various dialects in the Arab World don’t match formal Arabic. If you want to learn Arabic, don’t read formal books.
Taking the short-cut of learning formal Arabic will steer your “enlightenment” far away from current state of affairs in Arab World
Refrain from pressuring him to kneel when he wants to ask for your hand: You’ll pay dearly later on.
The Near-East (Le Levant) frequently enjoyed centuries of peace and enlightenment. This piece of intelligence is Not to be known and disseminated in the colonial West.
Les échanges séculaires se rompent, a une acceleration brutale. La faille entre Nord et Sud s’élargie a la mesure des mers et oceans.
L’Histoire ecrite a tendance a privilegié les scenarios apocalyptiques et tendent a se confirmer. Les siècle de paix et de lumiere ne figurant pas dans ses chapitres. Les rares chercheurs d’archives, bien intentionés, attachent ces joyeux addendum
On n’a jamais observer, grandeur nature, des societies ou les jeunes males seraient en surnombre écrasant: le désequilibre de la delinquence parmi les adolescents est un symptome serieux.
L’amour comme dérobade, l’étreinte comme ultime argument: la pensé ne se repose jamais, meme dans les reves.
Tous les reflexes de survie sont honteuse et mesquine, meme si on y attribute quelque légitimité
Les departs definitive ne sont pas épinglés a une date: Ni écharpe ni chasuble ne seront “au bon voyage”
Il n’y aurait plus le récomfort d’un port d’attache a “l’arriére de la tête”: Tout fut détruit, meme la fibre sociale
On ne rejette toujours pas les naufragés a la mer: On fait semblant de n’avoir plus les moyens.
Oú se retrouve désormais cette demarcation entre Nord et Sud? La violence latent s’installe partout
Il n’y a plus de nuance entre violence déclarée et violence latente: le sauve-qui-peut souffle sur le monde. Mais óu aller?
A l’exode des expats vint s’ajouter a celui des elites locales. Meme les gens du commun font bagages que l’avenir épouvante.
Pas de complicité? Alors, plutot étrangére l’une á l’autre.
Pas de chuchotement? Pas de tete-a-tete? Alors pas de confidence.
Comment déceler les apprentis sorciers qui zelent a monopoliser les secrets de la vie?
Comment apprendre a voir dans la larve les contours de l’image adulte? Toute cette violence déchainee, emmagaziné Durant l’enfance.
On peut toujours assumer que les villages du Sud éteignent leur feux de campement. Cette réalité se retrouve au Nord, feu éteint, sauf la TV et les portables
L’Histoire écrite semble un fleuve dont le lit est creusé a l’avance, pour accommoder la logique. Mais non, l’histoire modern se pert dans les deserts et les marécages stagnants.
Le Nord insiste toujours a designer les contrées a risqué (au Sud), defense de franchir cette latitude de l’enfer.
La violence latent est réservée dans les archives top secret des bureaux d’intelligence. La violence declare est communiqué quand le covert operation a terminé
Un nouveau crime legitime contre l’humanité: Privation d’avenir
Pour retrouver le Nord, de la Mediterrannée ou le Rio Grande, point n’est besoin de boussole: les ainés ont precedes ces oiseaux migrateurs, la route est déja inscrite dans leurs genes.
Should be an international right: any person can enjoy the opportunity to go somewhere else: a place away from civil war, lingering violence and endemic poverty
Frequently, I save a good title in my backlog: I have this firm conviction that I eventually will give flesh to the article
Je polissais le dernier chapitre. Avant d’entamais l’ecriture des autres chapitre. Une technique merveilleuse pour commencer les projets Non pratiques
La plupart d’entre nous ménent une vie, assoiffée d’attention et d’une main douce, carressant nos rare cheveux
Une vocation, une inspiration profonde et irresistible, une griserie creatrice…s’accompagne d’un manqué de don et de talent. Seule, la pratique constant et a long-terme peut devenir suffisante.
Les apparences de maturité des adroits tailleurs cache L’Enfant en culotte courte
The novel, “The last century after Beatrice” published in 1992 by Amine Maalouf is the best in predicting our current troubles, this enlarging split/shasm between North/South and East/West
Le salut sera planétaire ou il ne sera pas: la folle sagesse seculaire d’eriger des murs de quarantaine doit faire place aux risques mineurs de l’ouverure des frontiéres.
Le basané, le crepu, le barbu, l’etranger comme vecteur ambulant latent de violence?
Les chiffres de la pauvreté nouvelle ne font que balbutier ce que les rues hurlent a tue-tete, des rues froides de terreur.
Si je se raconte mes histoires avec humour, c’est les contes du petit royaume du “Je” de chacun de nous.
We hire live-in helper, and refuse to admit that her personal problems are more important to her, far more than the needs of your children
Populous speech (sha3bawi) is the most appropriate for Presidential election speech. It is downhill after this speech when eventually rationality immerse itself.
A lire La promesse de l’aube” by late Romain Gary. Tant d’humour
A lire “Le premier siècle après Beatrice, 1992” By Amine Maalouf. Predicted the current cataclysm in Middle-East, Africa, Europe
La legend de mon avenir brilliant par ma mere etait ce qui tenait sa vie: Mon amour-propre, ma virilité suspecte, ma dignité en suspend… tout cela ne pouvait entrer en ligne de compte.
Si je parle tellement et si haut de l’honneur, d’appels a la dignité et a la justice… c’est que j’ai vécu trop longtemps du travail d’ume vielle maman, malade et surmenée. Je lui en veux beaucoup.
L’etude de 20 pages d’un psychoanalyst de renom, fesant le cas que j’étais attaint des complexes de castration et de fécal, le comble du chic, m’a prove que je suis devenu quelqu’un
Il me faut un public pour donner le meilleur de moi-meme.
Les orphelins et ceux qui sont en manque, savent dire avec un regard reveur: “Vous pouvez dire que votre maman vous aime vraiment”
Commandant Mére m’envoyait des billets lapidaires. Les phrases ressemblaient aux proclamations des géneraux vaincus: “Nous vaincrons, car nous sommes les plus forts”, “Courage mon grand, tu reviendra a la maison a la fin de l’ an, le front ceint de lauriers…”
Friends of parents are more interesting to kids. Parents are the first broken-records examples to kids: That’s how they learn.
Share this:
Like this: