Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘decision process

Placebo potency explained by Regression to Mean?

Extreme performances are interspersed with many less extreme cases

Trends fluctuate around a mean, back toward the average.

Such as in weather changes, stock market, performances of athletes, luck in love, subjective happiness, feeling under the weather, test scores…

Occasional visits to “expert” may boost your emotional moral, but it is more likely that the boost is a regression to the mean that might have taken place if you didn’t pay a visit to the expert.

Usually, it might not be the program, the process, the punishment method, the advice… that improved the situation.

Look out for the regression to mean behavior in natural laws and people emotional states.

Learn to assess the process and not judge according to results and outcome.

Study the decision process.

When the sample is small, the results are practically meaningless.

Better pay close attention by monitoring the preparation and the execution of the operations.

A bad result does Not generally indicate a bad decision and vice versa.

Stick to the method and process that work well, even if the result is not occasionally satisfactory.

“There’s nothing more effective in selling anything than getting the customer to really believe that you like him and care about him” Joe Girard, a successful car  salesman.

Read: The Art of Thinking Clear


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

April 2021
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