Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘Discarding evidences

Special cases? Discarding evidence to fit your Confirmation biases model

Confirmation bias maybe the mother of all misconceptions.

Once we believe that a program, a product, an idea… is successful, we refuse to let go, even if we are presented with tons of proofs to the contrary.

This is basically the paradigm shift problem with all disciplines

If we are unable to insert a new piece of intelligence or information in our existing worldview model as a compatible element, it is hard to accept the new addition or understand it. This is called the Disconfirming Evidence tendency.

Although facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored, “what the human is best at doing is interpreting all new information so that their prior conclusions remain intact”  Warren Buffet

And Charles Darwin found a method to circumvent this confirmation bias: Any observation that contradicted his theory, he took it seriously and noted it down immediately. The more correct he judged his theory, the more actively he looked for contradicting aspects.

We deal with all kinds of assumptions. The more nebulous they are, the stronger the confirmation bias.

You may utter prophesies so vague that any event can substantiate them.

Religious and philosophical system of beliefs represent an excellent breeding ground for this bias.

Economists fall prey to this bias by predicting the economic trend.

Business journalists suffer most from this bias: rarely the journalist seeks out disconfirming evidences to what he formulated on a company’s cause for success or failure.

Self-help and Get-rich quickly books are excellent examples of blinkered storytelling.

Axing beliefs that feel like Old Friends is hard work, but it should be an imperative task.

When you hear “This is a special case”, you better tend your ears and be on your guard. Most probably, your consultant refuses to alter his model.

Actually, all laws are special cases. Why?

Laws are valid within certain restrictions, constraints, conditions and range of application.

If you neglect or ignore these limitations of the parameters that a law is supposed to function within, your solution is out of bound and erroneous.

This behavior is typical to most novices in any field of practice, and they keep falling into these traps and generate dire consequences until they learn to become professionals.

 


adonis49

adonis49

adonis49

September 2021
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