Adonis Diaries

The military Syrian regime vacating bordering districts… Why?

As the body suffers acute trauma, it shuts down the activities of its extremities and concentrates its heat and energy on the vital organs.

That decision for the military to vacate the bordering districts was expected after 2 years of civil war in Syria, and the question is why now?

For example, the army retreated from the southern district of Daraa by the Jordanian border, from the eastern district of Deir Zoor by Iraq borders, and from the Edleb district by the Turkish border.

The regime military will never vacate the districts by Lebanon’s borders, simply because the Capital Damascus is too close, and because the regime can expect Hezbollah to defend these borders and slow down the logistics of the insurgents in men and weapons.

1. It is true that in bordering districts, there are more army officers defection or just vacating their posts and relinquishing their responsibilities: The central control is far away and ineffectual to maintain the spirit, order and unity of the corps…

2. The regime is adopting the strategy of of lasting as long as is possible, and hoping that circumstances will change the tide and be able to negotiate a comprehensive political deal with the opposition forces and the regional powers. Sort of either the donkey will die, the king will die, or the teacher will die before the 10 year-term duration for teaching a donkey to read…

This strategy has a good chance to succeed for the following reasons:

1. As the “citizens” in the bordering districts have to deal directly with the opposition forces, they are bound to forget that the regime has responsibilities for their safety, security and health. It is the insurgents on the ground who have to cater for the citizens’ demands and needs. As the insurgents are not prepared to govern on a daily basis, the people will shun away from supporting these “hot headed” violent insurgents, and seek the support of a more capable regime…

2. The bordering States will be pressured to feel the heat of the insurgents most directly. The bordering States are no longer dealing with Syria central power but with de-facto self-autonomous districts taking orders from far away powers. The out of control behavior of the insurgents will force the bordering States to take drastic measures and start focusing on the immediate troubles being fomented within their borders…

Why now?

1. Jordan is dealing with over 700,000 Syrian refugees and the powerful Jordanian Muslim Brotherhood movement is shaking the foundation of the tribal and monarchic structure in Jordan. The absolute King Abdallah has been bowing down to the pressure of the US and Saudi Arabia. Actually, the US is training Syrian insurgents in Jordan and dispatching them inside Syria.

2. Turkey is starting to feel the heat of another million refugees, violently demonstrating in the camps streets for better conditions and restraining the Turkish army from proceeding with their humiliating tactics. Sectarian tensions in Turkey are escalating and the Kurds are positioned to demand their rights as full citizens…

3. Iraq is already putting the squeeze on the insurgents coming in and out of the Anbar district since the Sunni extremists have resumed their terror tactics in Iraq.

4. The pseudo-State of Lebanon is currently totally impotent: No government, no Parliament, no electoral law, a pitiful economy… The Lebanese army is unable to master 25,000 soldiers to post on its vast borders with Syria (about 350 km). The city of Tripoli is quickly getting out of hand and becoming a Salafist stronghold for the Syrian insurgents.

Actually, of the 400,000 Syrian refugees in Lebanon  over 50,000 are Syrian insurgent fighters and meddling in Lebanon internal affairs.

Fact is, the previously called Fateh Land in the Arkoub district of Lebanon is quickly becoming the “Jabhat al Nousra” Land.  The borders in the Bekaa Valley are looking like a long wall of sand dunes erected by the people, Hezbollah and the army to harass the logistics of the Syrian insurgents infiltrating from the Sunni villages and towns…

5. Israel is feeling the heat wave as never before. The frequent threats of another preemptive war against Hezbollah are smokescreens: Israel does not want its citizens to catch wind that the real trouble is approaching from the Muslim extremist “terrorists”. The Druze in the Golan Heights are on the verge of defecting from the Israeli army, en mass, and returning to their villages and towns in order to defend their families from the insurgents who believe that the Druze are a Shiaa sect, and worst than impure porks.

For 4 decades, Israel enjoyed peace in this occupied territory thanks to the Assad regime, and now Israel has to deal with out of control insurgents, and everything is to be reconsidered and reevaluated with volatile forces. Most probably, Israel is seriously planning to vacate the heights since no tourists or investors are about to consider the Heights as viable security factor.

And the Syrian regime is not about to facilitate the tasks of these bordering States that aided the insurgents and destroyed 4 decades of steady growth.

The Syrian will focus its energy on controlling Damascus and the main cities such as Lataquieh, Aleppo, Hama and Homs and securing the logistics routes.

I expect the bordering States will experience serious upheavals before the Syrian regime reaches a negotiated settlement with the oppositions.

Mainly, the border States will expel and repatriate the foreign insurgents coming from Tunisia, Libya, Chechnia… And the exporting countries of “rebels” will bow down to be able to control these elements before more internal troubles weaken these government, barely in any standing power.

Even the European citizens of Salafist Islamists, converging to Belgium from France, England, Spain and Italy before being shipped to Syria, will be checked and restrained.

The oil multinationals are restless and want this war to end very soon: Syria offshore is floating on gas and oil.

The oil multinationals, backed by their government, expect lucrative deals. They are off balance: No lucrative deals with Syria, regime or opposition in power. The Syrian people have a long history of resistance and suspicion with foreign mandated powers.