## Posts Tagged ‘exponential growth’

### Magic 70 and the horrible exponential growth

Posted on: October 24, 2014

Magic 70 and the horrible exponential growth

Never throw any percentage per year increases in vain.

1. What an inflation of 5% per year means? Divide 70 by 5= 14. Your dollar value will decrease by 50% in 14 years

2. Accident rate increasing by 7% per year? 70/7= 10. Accidents will double in 10 years

3. If you double a grain of rice for each square in the chess game, all the rice production in the world will not cover the last square.

4. Fold a paper 0.004 inch thick 50 times and the resulting thickness covers the distance from earth to the sun, or 70 million miles.

And what would be the global population if birth rate increases by 1%?  Would that mean the population should double in 70 years?

Help me out here. Suppose a fertile woman will give birth once every 3 years, and taking into account that women stop being fertile at age 40, and can give birth starting at age 15…

And that the average life expectancy is 50 overall, including all the deaths from diseases (mainly from the three very bad diseases such as malaria, dysenteric, AIDS), from famine, malnutrition, infantile mortality, miscarriages, killing the female fetus, civil wars, collateral damages, birth defects from “unlawful” ammunition, radio-active materials, toxic chemicals, road accidents….

How much global population will increase per year?

The best way is to adopt India as an anchor for your computation, on the ground that more than two third of mankind conditions and life-style resemble that of the Indian population.

In this case, all that the UN is to do is to fund periodic accurate census in India and the computation of estimates of most everything will be very close to target.

### Ebola vs People? Fighting Ebola street by street

Posted on: October 19, 2014

Ebola vs People

### Ricken Patel –

10:58 PM (14 hours ago)

 Ebola could threaten us all, and the most urgent need to stop it is for volunteers. If just 120 doctors among us volunteer, it will *double* the number of doctors in Sierra Leone. Other volunteers – in health, sanitation, logistics – can help too. This is a call to serve humanity in the deepest possible way, to accept serious risk for our fellow human beings. Click to learn more, and show our gratitude to those making this powerful choice:

Three weeks ago, hundreds of thousands of us went offline to fight climate change. This week, we’re going offline to help stop Ebola.

The Ebola virus is spiraling out of control. Cases in West Africa are doubling every 2-3 weeks and the latest estimate says that up to 1.4 million people could be infected by mid-January.

Talking about exponential growth is frightening

At that scale, this monster threatens the entire world.

I just read that the UN has only \$100,000 in its fund for the Ebola outbreak

Mind you that AIDS harvest over 1.5 million each year (as much as Malaria and Dysentery combined).

Though, malaria is the number one disease followed by dysentery that put heavy burden on the States in Africa and Equatorial countries.

### Ricken Patel – Avaaz posted this Oct 18, 2014

Previous Ebola outbreaks have been repeatedly contained at small numbers. But the scale of this epidemic has swamped the region’s weak health systems.

Liberia has less than 1 doctor for every 100,000 people. Governments are providing funds, but there just aren’t enough medical staff to stem the epidemic.

That’s where we come in.

39 million people are receiving this email. Our polling shows that 6% of us are health workers – doctors or nurses – that’s nearly 2 million of us.

If just 120 doctors among us volunteer, it will *double* the number of doctors in Sierra Leone.

Other volunteers can help too — lab technicians, logisticians, water and sanitation workers, and transport workers. Volunteering means more than time. It means risk.

Health professionals have already died fighting Ebola. But if there’s any group of people that would consider taking this risk for their fellow human beings, it’s our community. I and others on the Avaaz team are ready to take that risk with you, traveling to the front lines of this crisis.

Great things come from listening to the deepest voices within us.

If you’re a health professional, or have other skills that can help, I ask you to take a moment, listen to the part of you that you most trust, and follow it.

Click below to volunteer, see messages from volunteers about why they’ve made this choice, and leave your own message of appreciation and encouragement for them:

https://secure.avaaz.org/en/ebola_volunteers_thank_you_3/?bFAfecb&v=47569

Raising your hand to volunteer is the first step. You’ll need to get, and provide, a lot of information to ensure you’re well matched to an available position. You will likely need to discuss this decision with your loved ones, and you can withdraw from the process later if you choose to. For this effort, Avaaz is working with Partners In Health, Save the Children, and International Medical Corps, three of the leading organisations fighting this deadly disease. We are also consulting with the governments of Liberia, Sierra Leone, and Guinea, and the World Health Organization.

While there is substantial risk, there are also clear ways to contain that risk.

Ebola is spread through bodily fluids, so with extreme care, the risk of contracting it can be minimized.

So far, 94 health care workers have died of Ebola in Liberia, but almost all of them have been national health workers, who sadly are far less well equipped than international volunteers.

With treatment, the chances of surviving the virus are better than 50%.

Many of us, from police to activists to soldiers, have jobs that involve risking our lives for our country. It’s the most powerful statement we can make about what’s worth living for. Taking this risk to fight Ebola, makes a statement that our fellow human beings, wherever they are, are worth living for:

https://secure.avaaz.org/en/ebola_volunteers_thank_you_3/?bFAfecb&v=47569

If Ebola spirals further out of control, it could soon threaten us all. The fact that a weak health care system in a small country can let this monster grow to a size that threatens the world is a powerful statement of just how interdependent we are. But this interdependence is far more than just interests.

We are connected, all of us, in a community of human beings.

All the lies that have divided us – about nation and religion and sexuality – are being torn down, and we are realizing that we really are one people, one tribe.

That a young mother and her daughter in Liberia fear the same things and love the same things as a young mother and her daughter in Brazil, or the Netherlands. And in this unfolding understanding, a new world is being born. Out of the darkest places come our brightest lights. Out of the depths of the Ebola nightmare, let’s bring the hope of a new world of one people, willing to give, and sacrifice, for each other.

With hope and determination,

Ricken, John, Alice, Danny, and the whole Avaaz team.

Up to 1.4m people could be infected with Ebola by January, CDC warns (The Guardian)
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/sep/23/ebola-cdc-millions-infected-quarantine-africa-epidemi…

Known Cases and Outbreaks of Ebola Virus Disease, in Chronological Order (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention)
http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/history/chronology.html

Ebola ‘devouring everything in its path’ (Al Jazeera)
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/africa/2014/09/ebola-devouring-everything-path-201499161646914388.html

Ebola death rates 70% – WHO study (BBC)
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-29327741

Unprecedented number of medical staff infected with Ebola (WHO)
http://www.who.int/mediacentre/news/ebola/25-august-2014/en/

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