Adonis Diaries

Posts Tagged ‘fallacies

Part 12. How Israel in 1948 committed Ethnic Cleansing of Palestinians, about 400,000 within days in first stage

The Fallacies of Morris’s Arguments

Fallacies, Biases, Illusions, effects, trendencies, errors… and “The Art of Thinking Clear”

By Rolf Dobelli

This book is a simple guide to “less irrational” behaviors and tendencies, as we get aware of the hundreds of biases that are ingrained in our behaviors.

I have reviewed two dozen of these 99 listed biases and added my comments.

“It isn’t what we know that gets in our way. It is what we believe” Physicist  Harold Puthoff

“We’d rather be roughly right than precisely right” Lord Keynes

“Faced with the choice between changing our mind and proving there is no need to do so, everyone gets busy on the proof” (John Kenneth Galbraith)

1. Survivorship Bias

2. Swimmer’s body illusion

3. Clustering illusion

4. Social proof effect

5. Sunk cost effect

6. Reciprocity

7. Confirmation

8. Authority

9. Contrast effect

10. Availability

11. Getting worse before getting better fallacy

12. Story bias

13. In hindsight illusion

14. Overconfidence bias

15. Chauffeur knowledge

16. Illusion of control

17. Insensitive Super-Response tendency

18. Regression to mean fallacy

19. Outcome bias

20. Paradox of choice

21. Liking bias

22. Endowment effect

23. Coincidence fallacy

24. Group think effect

25. Neglect of Probability

26. Scarcity Error

27. Base-rate neglect

28. Gambler’s fallacy

29. The Anchor

30. Induction

31. Loss aversion

32. Social loafing

33. Exponential growth

34. Winner’s curse

35. Fundamental attribution error

36 False causality

37. Halo effect

38. Alternative path

39. Forecast illusion

40. Conjunction fallacy

41. Framing

42. Action bias

43. Omission bias

44. Self-serving

45. Hedonic treadmill

46. Sel-selection bia

47. Beginner’s luck

48. Cognitive dissonance

49. Hyperbolic discounting

50. Because Justification

51. Decision fatigue

52. Contagion bias

53. Problems with averages

54. Motivation crowding

55. Twaddle tendency

56. Will Roger phenomenon

57. Information bias

58. Effort justification

59. Law of small numbers

60. Expectations

61. Simple logic fallacy

62. Forer effect

63. Volunteer’s folly

64. Affect heuristic

65 Introspection illusion

66. Inability to close doors

67. Neomania

68. Sleeper effect

69. Alternative blindness

70. Social comparison

71. Primacy and recency effects

72. “Not invented here” syndrome

73. The Black Swan

74. Domain Dependence

75. False-Consensus

76. Falsification of History bias

77. In-group, out-group biases

78. Ambiguity aversion

79. Default, standard option effects

80. Fear of regret

81. Salience effect

82. House-Money effect

83. Procrastination

84. Envy vs jealousy

85. Personification

86. Illusion of paying attention

87. Planning fallacy

88. Zeigarnik effect

89. Illusion of skills

90. Feature=positive effect

91. Cherry picking tendency

92. Single cause fallacy

93 Intention to treat errors

94. News illusion

Note 1: As you read these 100 tendencies to commit errors of judgment, try to add other systematic biases to the list

Try to add a title or a short statement that succinctly describe the topic.

Note 2: The exigencies of living lead us to stick to most of our biases and fallacies. We tend to procrastinate acting on our well-intentioned decisions that could correct our ill-conceived methodology to run our life.

Note 3:  To better comprehend these types of behavioral errors or shortcomings, the best way is to try various taxonomies (categorizing) for these biases, fallacies… that lead to errors

1. You may define these terms and delimit how they differ and sort them accordingly

2. You may sort them according to cognitive, social, evolutionary perspectives

3. Sort them according to your field of interest so that you rely on a shorter list when reviewing failed projects and erasing the biases that were taken care of.

4. Group them for correlation or seemingly contradictory behaviors

 

 

 

Mount Lebanon: a few fallacies (November, 20, 2008)

Mount Lebanon is a refuge: correct.  Since time immemorial Mount Lebanon was an ideal ecological place in weather and abundance of fresh water.  Fruit trees and milk and honey and snow covered mountain chains and virgin forest were trade marks of Mount Lebanon among all the invading Empires.  Mount Lebanon was a refuge and a sanctuary for the mystics and ascetics.  It is said that the Sufis believed that there are 70 “Abdal” (people who spend their life in prayer and in communication with God to extend peace on earth) at any one moment; 30 of these “abdals” were believed to reside in Mount Lebanon and the remaing in all over Syria.

 

Mount Lebanon was mainly a refuge from persecution:  All kinds of sects and tribes have found refuge in Mount Lebanon but it was not exclusively because of persecution or persecution on religious ground. The inhabitants of Mount Lebanon are not a homogenous ethnic group within sectarian differences. Mount Lebanon had experienced the absorption of many different ethnic tribes to serve the interests of the Empire of the period. Mount Lebanon had tribes transferred from Persia (Caliphate Muaweya installed Persian tribes in Kesrwan), Iraq, and Turkmenistan (during the early ottoman dynasties), Kurdistan (during the Mamelouk dynasties), Ciskasians, and Greek from Byzantium to name a few.  In fact, the name of the Maronite county of Kesrwan originates from the root of Khosro or people coming from Persia. There are many discoveries in caves that prove that the female inhabitants used to wear the attire of Central Europe with multilayered colorful dresses.

 

The Christians of Mount Lebanon are refugees from Moslem hegemonies: utterly wrong.  There were four major waves of Christian sects fleeing persecutions but not from Moslems and not all toward Lebanon and Mount Lebanon.  Three waves were caused by other Christian sects who were affiliated to Byzantium with Constantinople as Capital. The last wave was caused by extremist and salafist sect originating from the Arabia Desert. 

Since the Council of Nicee in 325 (during the reign of Emperor Constantine) all the Christian sects who refused the new dogma or foundation of Christianity were persecuted.  Emperor Constantine was a pagan by heart and nominally converted to Christianity for political reasons; he wanted his own Imperial religion and indivisible.  Many sects found refuge in Aleppo, Iraq, Armenia, Kurdistan, around the Oronte River (Al Aassy) and some in the Northern part of Mount Lebanon. 

The next major wave occurred around the year 1000 AC (one hundred year before the Crusades) when Byzantium had regained control of Syria and the schism between Constantinople and Rome had taken roots. The Christian Greek Orthodox persecuted the Greek Catholics and the Maronites (having allegiance to Rome or the Pope); the Greek Armenians persecuted Armenian Catholics. Many of these persecuted Christian sects moved in to Mount Lebanon.  The third wave was during the Crusade campaigns as counter persecutions to Constantinople.  The forth wave of mostly Greek Orthodox who were predominant in Syria and Damascus flee the successive razias incursions of the Wahabites bedwins coming from the Arabia Desert of Hijjaz around 1800. The Ottoman Sultan then sent Mehmet Ali who crushed the Wahabit and razed their capital between around 1835.  Mehmet Ali will later rule Egypt and his dynasty will survive until the military revolt of Gamal Abdel Nasser in 1956.  The “Moslem” Wahabit sect has been ruling Saudi Arabia since 1935.

 

The Druze in Mount Lebanon are refugees of persecutions: wrong.  The Druze Moslem sect members in Mount Lebanon were never refugees from no where. They lived in Mount Lebanon and were of various sects; they converted to the Fatimide Moslem sect who ruled Egypt for over a century around 950.  The Fatimide dynasty were fundamentally a Chiia sect (Moslems who refused a Moslem Caliphate, especially a Sunni Caliphate) and had Sufi tendencies and other esoteric beliefs.  During the Sunni Mamelouk dynasties, Druze fled Aleppo to the Golan Heights and in Lebanon, but not necessarily to Mount Lebanon.

 

The Chiaa in Mount Lebanon are refugees of persecutions: mostly correct. The Chiaa inhabited most of Mount Lebanon during the Ommayad Dynasty and ever since.  The Sunni Caliphates made it a trend to persecute the Chiia at every opportunity.  Many tribes from Turkmenistan, Persia, and Kurdistan were relocated in Mount Lebanon to balance the Chiia and keep them in check.  The Chiia were persecuted by the Ottoman, especially lately when associated with the Safavid Persian Dynasty that was on the ascendance since the 16th century.  The tribal sects of the Maronite and then very late the Druze (in the 15th century) managed to have a centralized religious authority but not the Chiias; thus the Chiia tribes were not cohesive enough to share authority in Mount Lebanon.

  

Mount Lebanon was a land of freedom:  Not exactly.  It was mostly and frankly a social chaos of tribal rules with loose connections to a central authority, except paying the tribute.  The climate to a foreigner felt a sense of freedom but not liberty outside the tribe. Uprisings against the central authorities of the successive Empires were very rare and not locally initiated.

 

Mount Lebanon was militarily impregnable: utterly wrong.  Mount Lebanon was not immune to military reactions from the Empires of the period.  All uprisings were crushed easily and quickly.  Mount Lebanon was relatively at peace because the local tribes did not make waves and were left alone as long as they paid the tributes and appropriate taxes. The few uprisings were instigated by foreign powers, Byzantium and later the European powers. Thus, Mount Lebanon was an ideal subject to central powers and was left undisturbed most of the time, except when local skirmishes necessitated local Emirs to support the Pashas of Damascus or Akka in men of war with their own armaments, mules, horses and supplies.


adonis49

adonis49

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